Morning News

Source: Wall Street CN

# Market Overview

Tech stocks drove the three major U.S. stock indices to a two-day winning streak, reaching a one-week high, with NVIDIA up over 2%; the semiconductor index closed higher for two consecutive sessions, and Micron Technology rose more than 4%. After announcing the reaching of a privatization agreement, Electronic Arts (EA) jumped 4.5%. Chinese concept stocks rebounded, with the Chinese concept stock index closing up 2%, and Alibaba gaining over 4%.

U.S. Treasuries rose across the board, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling for the first time in four days. The U.S. Dollar Index continued to decline from its three-week high; Bitcoin rose nearly $4,000 intraday to break through the $114,000 mark, and Ethereum rebounded by more than 4% at one point.

Crude oil closed down over 3%, marking the largest drop in three months. U.S. crude oil fell more than 4% intraday, while Brent crude ended its four-day winning streak. The cloud of a U.S. government shutdown boosted risk-aversion sentiment, pushing gold to a three-day winning streak and a record high. Spot gold rose nearly 2% intraday, breaking above $3,800 for the first time; silver continued to hit a new high since 2011. London copper rebounded over 2% to a more than one-year high, and New York copper closed up 2.5%.

During the Asian trading session, China's A-shares and Hong Kong stocks surged in the afternoon. The ChiNext Index rose over 2%, "bull market leaders" (securities stocks) rose collectively, the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2%, tech and internet stocks generally advanced, while "coking coal and coke" (double coking) dropped sharply.

# Key News

The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting to discuss documents to be submitted for deliberation at the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): The total scale of the new policy-based financial instruments amounts to 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises in deeply participating in the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative.

State Taxation Administration: Platform enterprises shall not transfer their own tax-related obligations to employees on the platform in any form; according to the new regulations on tax-related information reporting by internet platforms, platform delivery workers, couriers and other personnel with an annual income of less than 120,000 yuan basically do not need to pay taxes.

To reduce Trump's 39% tariffs, Switzerland is reportedly proposing to invest in the U.S. aluminum refining industry. The trade war has extended to a cultural war: Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on overseas film productions, leaving Hollywood stunned.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: In the event of a government shutdown, all operations will be suspended, and no economic data will be released during this period.

After a record-breaking rally, the value of U.S. gold reserves hit $1 trillion.

Trump stated that Israel has agreed to a "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, with the shekel rising nearly 2% intraday; a senior Hamas official said the plan has not been received yet. Qatar said it had received an apology from the Israeli Prime Minister, who promised not to launch similar attacks on Qatar like the one in Doha again.

Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, and the United States is considering providing "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine.

DeepSeek large model V3.2 was unveiled, with simultaneous adaptation and open-sourcing for chips from Huawei and Cambricon. It introduced an independently developed DSA attention mechanism for the first time, and its API price was halved. Anthropic launched Claude Sonnet 4.5, claiming it to be the "world's best coding model"; OpenAI plans to launch the independent Sora 2 app, and its default use of copyrighted content has sparked controversy.

Facing competition from the iPhone 17, Ming-Chi Kuo lowered Xiaomi 17's shipment target by 20%.

# Market Closing Quotes

U.S. and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to close at 6,661.21 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.15% to 46,316.07 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.48% to 22,591.154 points. Europe's STOXX 600 Index increased 0.18% to 555.53 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90% to close at 3,862.53 points; the Shenzhen Component Index gained 2.05% to 13,479.43 points; the ChiNext Index advanced 2.74% to 3,238.01 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market session, the yield on the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury note was approximately 4.14%, down nearly 4 basis points intraday; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was about 3.62%, falling around 2 basis points intraday.

Commodities: WTI November crude oil futures closed down 3.45% at $63.45 per barrel. Brent November crude oil futures fell 3.08% to $67.97 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures closed up 1.21% at $3,855.2 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures rose 0.77% to $47.016 per ounce. London tin closed up about 2.9% at $35,490 per ton. London copper gained approximately 2.3% to $10,414 per ton. COMEX December copper futures rose around 2.5% to $4.892 per pound.

# Details of Top News

## Global Heavyweight News

The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the documents to be submitted for deliberation at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. The meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China would be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd.

National Development and Reform Commission: The total scale of the new policy - based financial instrument is 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises to deeply participate in the "AI Plus Initiative" . Li Chao, the spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that relevant departments will promote the accelerated application and popularization of the new generation of intelligent terminals and intelligent agents from three aspects. Firstly, strengthen the construction of a policy environment with clear orientation, respect for laws, and standardized development, and formulate policy guidelines; Secondly, coordinate to promote technological research and development as well as open - source sharing, accelerate the pace of innovation, and support AI enterprises and leading enterprises in various industries to carry out collaborative innovation; Thirdly, make simultaneous efforts on both the supply and demand sides to promote market expansion.

State Taxation Administration: Platform enterprises shall not transfer their own tax - related obligations to the employees within the platform in any form. As Internet platform enterprises will formally submit the identity information and income information of operators and employees within the platform for the first time starting from October 1st, the State Taxation Administration will strictly investigate and deal with illegal acts such as some platforms secretly charging fees to various "guys" such as take - away deliverymen and couriers by taking this opportunity in accordance with the law. The relevant person in charge of the Administration and Technology Development Department of the State Taxation Administration said that Internet platform enterprises should perform the obligation of withholding and remitting taxes in accordance with the law, guide operators and employees within the platform to enjoy tax preferential policies and perform tax obligations in a legal and compliant manner, shall not transfer the tax - related obligations of platform enterprises to the employees within the platform in any form, and shall not additionally charge fees to employees under the pretext of withholding and remitting taxes.

For take - away deliverymen, couriers and other personnel on Internet platforms, those with an annual income of less than 120,000 yuan basically do not need to pay taxes. Starting from October 1st this year, in accordance with the relevant requirements of the "Provisions on the Submission of Tax - related Information by Internet Platform Enterprises" issued by the State Council, it is clarified that employees engaged in convenient labor activities such as distribution, transportation and housekeeping within Internet platforms who enjoy tax preferential policies according to law or do not need to pay taxes do not need to submit their income information. This means that the implementation of the "Provisions" will not affect the daily work, income and tax burden of various "guys" and housekeeping staff, and various "guys" and housekeeping staff will not increase their tax burden as a result.

Trump's "Shadow Prime Minister": The Chief Architect of the Plan to Reshape the United States! Stephen Miller, who was called the "Shadow Prime Minister" by Bannon , has become the chief architect of the plan to reshape the United States and has led the formulation of extreme policies such as large - scale arrest of immigrants and attempts to abolish birthright citizenship. Miller is the only senior staff member who has maintained a close relationship with Trump after his first term and returned to the Oval Office with him in January this year. A former White House official said that it is completely Miller's time to shine now.

To reduce Trump's 39% tariff, Switzerland is said to have proposed to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry. According to media reports, Switzerland has proposed to transfer the business with the lowest profit margin of domestic gold refineries to the United States; at least one Swiss refinery is considering accelerating investment in the United States. The Swiss government declined to comment, saying that it has optimized the conditions proposed to the United States to reach an agreement quickly.

Trade War Turns into Cultural War: Trump Threatens to Impose 100% Tariff on Overseas Film Production, Hollywood is Dumbfounded. Trump said that the U.S. film production industry has been "stolen from the United States by other countries", and California has been hit particularly hard. To solve this "long - standing and endless" problem, a 100% tariff will be imposed on all films produced outside the United States.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: In the event of a government shutdown, all operations will be suspended, and no economic data will be released during this period. Some important upcoming reports that may be affected include the Non - Farm Payrolls Report this Friday. The U.S. Department of Labor will also release the data on the number of initial jobless claims every Thursday. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on October 15th, which is a key inflation indicator and also the last relevant data obtained by the Federal Reserve before the meeting held on October 28th - 29th.

After a record rise, the value of U.S. gold reserves has reached 1 trillion US dollars. As the gold price has reached an all - time high, the value of the 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves of the U.S. Treasury has exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, but its official book value is still fixed at 42.22 US dollars per ounce (about 11 billion US dollars) in 1973. If revalued at the market price, it will release about 990 billion US dollars for the U.S. Treasury. Against the background that the government is facing the constraint of the debt ceiling, this sum of money is undoubtedly quite attractive.

Trump said that Israel agreed to the "20 - point Plan" to end the Gaza conflict, and the shekel rose by nearly 2% intraday. The plan stipulates that if both sides of the conflict agree, the "war will end immediately", the Israeli military will withdraw to the agreed line and prepare to release the hostages; it requires that Hamas should not play any role in the future governance of Gaza. Trump warned that if Hamas rejects the agreement, the United States will fully support Israel in destroying the organization. Netanyahu formally apologized to Qatar on Monday for the previous attack on Doha. Qatar confirmed his apology and said that he promised not to launch similar attacks on Qatar again. A senior Hamas official said that the plan has not been received yet.

Russia Launches Large - scale Attack on Ukraine, the United States is Considering Providing "Tomahawk" Missiles to Ukraine. According to Broker China, the Russian military launched more than 590 drones and more than 40 missiles of various types at Ukraine on the 28th, with the main target of the attack being Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. On the same day, U.S. Vice President Vance confirmed that the U.S. side is considering Ukraine's request for long - range "Tomahawk" missiles . The range of various models of "Tomahawk" missiles ranges from 1500 kilometers to 2400 kilometers, which can hit the hinterland of Russia.

A New King of Semiconductors Emerges in Shenzhen. Xinkailai released more than 30 semiconductor devices at the 2025 China International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Exhibition in March this year, which caused a sensation. Recently, this semiconductor company fully owned by Shenzhen Investment Group has begun to introduce external investors and has become one of the most sought - after targets at present.

DeepSeek Large Model V3.2 Makes Its Debut, with Synchronous Adaptation and Open Source for Huawei and Cambricon Chips, and the First Self - developed DSA Attention Mechanism, with API Price Halved. On September 29th, the DeepSeek - V3.2 - Exp model was officially released and opened source on the Hugging Face platform. The model introduces a sparse Attention architecture, which can reduce the consumption of computing resources and improve the inference efficiency of the model. DeepSeek has significantly reduced the official API price by more than 50%, and the new price has taken effect immediately.

Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 4.5, Claiming to be the "World's Best Coding Model".

OpenAI Plans to Launch the Independent App of Sora 2, and the Default Use of Copyrighted Content Triggers Controversy.

Facing Competition from iPhone 17, Guo Mingji Reduces the Shipment Target of Xiaomi 17 by 20%. Analyst Guo Mingji of Tianfeng International Securities released a report, reducing the total shipment target of the Xiaomi 17 series by about 20%, and the original target was about 10 million units. The main reason for this reduction is the strong performance of the standard version of Apple's iPhone 17 in the Chinese market. Xiaomi Group's Hong Kong stocks closed down by 2%.

## Domestic Macroeconomics

A - share Bull Market: A Comprehensive Physical Examination Report. The strategy team of Guotou led by Lin Rongxiong believes that the current bull market shows the characteristics of "a new high in volume, not extreme heat, unbalanced driving force and distinct structure", and there is no clear bubble signal in the market index yet. It is expected to maintain a "strong shock" state around the National Day. Although the bull market has not ended, it has entered a critical stage of testing the relay of fundamentals and style switching. In November, it will be verified whether the "liquidity - driven bull market" can transition to the "fundamentals - driven bull market".

Shenwan Hongyuan: After Adjustment Comes the "Red October", and the Spring of 2026 May Be a Phased High of A - shares. Shenwan Hongyuan said that the current market is in a small - level adjustment phase in the bull market, and there is no systemic risk in the medium term. It is expected that the "Red October" market will unfold under the resonance of policy expectations and technological catalysis; before the spring of 2026, the catalysis of the technology industry will continue to be more than that of the pro - cyclical industry, and the structural market is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year.

## Domestic Companies

The Pricing is not "Surprising Enough", Morgan Stanley Predicts: Li Auto i6 May Become a "Slow - burning" Model. Morgan Stanley said that the starting price of the i6 model is 249,800 yuan, and the pricing strategy is relatively conservative and lacks "surprises". However, the technical strength of the product itself and the brand influence of Li Auto may still drive sales growth. It is expected that the monthly sales of i6 will exceed 8,000 units in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the stable upward trend of sales of MEGA and i8 models recently, the "overweight" rating on Li Auto is maintained.

## Overseas Macroeconomics

From Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" to Powell's "High Valuation of U.S. Stocks", What Does the Federal Reserve Chairman's "Risk Warning" Mean for the Market? JPMorgan Chase's analysis shows that historically, the valuation concerns of the Federal Reserve Chairman have not triggered significant market adjustments. Since 1996, after each valuation warning from the Federal Reserve Chairman, the S&P 500 Index has not had negative returns in the subsequent 1 month, 6 months and 12 months. On average, the positive return in the 12 months after the warning is only slightly lower than that in the 6 months before the warning, and the market growth slows down but still maintains an upward trend.

Senior Federal Reserve Official: Worried about the Inflation Outlook, Monetary Policy is Facing a "Challenging Moment". Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that she expects inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the next one to two years and may not fall back until the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028. She only hopes to shift the policy to a loose stance when there is "more substantial weakness" in the economic outlook, but at present, she has not seen such a situation.

Chairman of the U.S. SEC Calls for Relaxation of Regulation: Will Evaluate Replacing Quarterly Reports with Semi - annual Reports. Paul Atkins believes that mandatory quarterly reports are not the cornerstone of the vitality of the U.S. capital market, and it is time to "let the market decide the best reporting frequency according to factors such as the company's industry, scale and investor expectations". He advocates significantly relaxing financial regulation and restoring the capital market's trust in the SEC. Analysis points out that reducing the frequency of financial report disclosure may damage market transparency and is unfavorable to retail investors.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Reach a Five - month High in August, and the Decline in Mortgage Interest Rates Boosts the Housing Market. The leading indicator of the U.S. real estate market, pending home sales, rose unexpectedly to a five - month high in August, which was better than the estimates of all economists surveyed by the media. Lower mortgage interest rates have allowed more homebuyers to sign contracts. This is particularly obvious in the Midwest.

"Expensive" is the New Standard? Wall Street Begins to Accept the "New Normal" of Stock Market Valuation. Faced with high valuations, Wall Street is forming a new consensus that the traditional price - earnings ratio perception should be abandoned. Analysts point out that the valuation center of the S&P 500 Index has moved up structurally, which is supported by multiple factors such as the reduction of the U.S. economic recession, the transformation to the technology or service industry, and the improvement of profit stability. The current high valuation may be regarded as the "new normal" rather than expecting it to return to the "bygone era".

Economic Resilience Reduces the Risk of Recession, Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Stocks Should "Buy on Dips" Until the End of the Year. Goldman Sachs strategists upgraded the rating of U.S. stocks to overweight within a three - month period, citing reasons including good profit growth, the Federal Reserve's loose policy without recession and the relaxation of global fiscal policies. Strategists believe that in the post - cycle economic slowdown stage with strong policy support, equity assets usually perform well, and "will buy U.S. stocks on dips before the end of the year".

Bank of America's Hartnett: Key Indicators Show That AI is Not Risky Yet, Be Alert to the Impact of the U.S. Dollar Rebound on Popular Trades. Hartnett believes that the credit spread of U.S. stock technology stocks is at the lowest level in 18 years, which means that the AI bubble has not yet reached a dangerous level; the depreciation of the U.S. dollar is the core driving force for the current round of asset price increases. Once the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds "disorderly" and breaks through the key level of 102, it may lead to the concentrated liquidation of the consensus trade of "shorting the U.S. dollar".

Unprecedented! Global Capital Expenditure Surges While Employment Growth Stagnates - The "AI Era" is Coming. JPMorgan Chase found that in the first half of 2025, global capital expenditure achieved an annualized growth of 11%, while the new employment in the developed markets in the third quarter may only increase by 0.4% year - on - year. In the past 60 years of economic expansion cycles in the United States, such a situation where the acceleration of capital expenditure and the stagnation of employment growth coexist has never occurred.

Is the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike in October Decided? Dove - camp Member Turns Around: Now It is "More Necessary Than Ever" to Raise Interest Rates. Asahi Noguchi emphasized that the Japanese economy is in the process of transforming from a zero - inflation model to a new 2% growth model, and people's behavior patterns have been based on the assumption that the economy will not return to zero inflation, which constitutes the core logic for his support for interest rate hikes. At present, the swap market expects the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in October to be about 60%.

## Overseas Companies

Is "Mag 7" Outdated? Wall Street Wants AI! There is an obvious differentiation within "Mag 7". The prospects of Apple and Tesla are uncertain, while NVIDIA and Microsoft are still promising. With the expansion of the AI investment theme, emerging AI - beneficiary stocks such as Oracle, Broadcom and Palantir have performed prominently. Oracle has risen by more than 75%, and Palantir has risen by 135%. Wall Street has put forward new portfolio concepts such as "Big Six", "Elite 8" and "Magnificent 10".

The Next Entry Point of Super Intelligence: Google, Meta and NVIDIA, Tech Giants are Increasing Investment in "World Model". AI giants such as Google DeepMind, Meta and NVIDIA are shifting their research and development focus to the "World Model" in order to take the lead in the race towards machine "super intelligence". The "World Model" understands the physical world by learning video and robot data and has broad application prospects. NVIDIA executives said that the potential market size can be as high as 100 trillion US dollars, covering fields such as autonomous driving, robots and manufacturing.

ChatGPT Cooperates with Etsy and Shopify to Launch the AI Shopping Era, and Etsy Rises by 16%. OpenAI has launched an instant checkout function, allowing users to buy goods directly in the ChatGPT conversation. This function cooperates with Etsy and Shopify and is open to U.S. ChatGPT users. More than one million merchants will join the platform. Based on the agency business agreement cooperating with Stripe, users can seamlessly complete the purchase of a single commodity without jumping to an external website. Etsy's stock price rose by nearly 16% at the close on Monday, and Shopify's stock price rose by more than 6%.

Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 4.5, Claiming to be the "World's Best Coding Model". Anthropic said that according to industry benchmarks such as SWE - bench Verified (a test standard to measure the software coding ability of AI systems), Claude Sonnet 4.5 can be called the "world's best coding model". This model has shown top - notch performance in coding benchmark tests and can not only build "production - ready" applications, but also not just stay in the prototype stage.

# Industries/Concepts

1. **Education**: According to China Securities Journal, on September 28, an on-site promotion meeting for the comprehensive deepening of application pilots of the National Smart Education Platform was held in Shenzhen. Huai Jinpeng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Education, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Huai Jinpeng emphasized that digital technologies, especially artificial intelligence, are reshaping people's knowledge structures and competency profiles, putting forward new requirements for educational methods and educational capabilities. Efforts should be made to continuously enhance the public service capabilities and institutional guarantees for digital education, and promote the gradual development of educational digitalization towards institutionalization, standardization, and long-term effectiveness. It is necessary to adhere to integrated innovation, promote the sharing of high-quality resources, and advance educational equity.

2. **Superconductivity**: According to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), a fully superconducting magnet jointly developed by the Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, CAS (as the lead unit) and a number of domestic scientific research institutions and universities recently achieved a central steady-state magnetic field of 35.1 Tesla, setting a new world record. This achievement represents a breakthrough in key technologies that are commonly faced internationally in the field of ultra-high-field fully superconducting steady-state magnets, and realizes 100% independent control over key materials, processes, and manufacturing. The research will not only effectively drive the technological upgrading of the domestic high-temperature superconducting material industry, but also provide key technical support for the industrial application of nuclear magnetic resonance imaging, aerospace electromagnetic propulsion, superconducting induction heating, superconducting maglev, and efficient power transmission, among other fields.

3. **Atomic-Level Manufacturing**: According to China Securities Journal, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study and formulate major issues related to the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. After revisions based on the discussed opinions, the draft document will be submitted to the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee (to be held from October 20 to 23) for deliberation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that atomic-level manufacturing is a future industry with prominent strategic, leading, and disruptive characteristics. It is necessary to deeply grasp strategic opportunities, further consolidate the foundation for scientific and technological as well as industrial innovation and development, and build an advantageous industrial chain for atomic-level manufacturing. Currently, research is underway to include atomic-level manufacturing in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the development of high-end and sophisticated industries. The development directions of atomic-level manufacturing include: addressing the development needs of high-end manufacturing fields such as integrated circuits and aerospace; promoting the development of major equipment systems; forming an integrated R&D paradigm of "design-process-equipment"; and driving a significant improvement in the performance of core basic materials, components, and parts.

# Preview of Today's Key News

- China's official Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Composite PMI for September.

- China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI for September.

- U.S. JOLTS Job Openings for August.

- U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for July.

- UK GDP for Q2.

- Germany's and France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September.

- Speech by Jefferson, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

- Australia's interest rate decision announcement.

- The U.S. federal government has run out of operating funds; the Senate reconvenes to deliberate on the stopgap spending bill.

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is subject to risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this article is consistent with their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this article shall be at the investor's own risk.