This week’s preview: BTC returns to 86,000, Trump’s genesis confronts the big shorts, and the macro shock is about to begin

# Written by Oliver, Mars Finance  

(November 24 - November 30, 2025)  

Last week, global markets underwent a stress test dominated by macroeconomic panic. The delayed impact of September’s nonfarm payroll data, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, briefly led investors to fear an imminent burst of the AI bubble. However, as institutions like CITIC Securities pointed out that the decline was actually driven by profit-taking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, and with New York Fed President John Williams delivering timely dovish comments over the weekend to soothe markets, sentiment rebounded sharply in early trading on Monday.  

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a strong rally this morning, briefly breaking above $88,000, and is now trading at $86,861. This marks a shift in the market from sheer fear to a new phase of gaming.  

Although trading days this week will be shortened due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the density of market narratives remains extremely high. We are about to witness a top-tier battle between bulls and bears: on one side, Donald Trump will unveil the "Genesis Mission"—a national-level new AI policy; on the other, prominent short-seller Michael Burry has vowed to expose the "profit black holes" of tech giants. Coupled with the release of the final PCE inflation data before the Federal Reserve enters its quiet period, this week is poised to be a head-on clash between policy-driven bullish sentiment and valuation-driven bearish bets.  

## Key Focus 1: The "Ice and Fire" of AI Narrative – Trump’s New Policy vs. Short-Seller’s Attack  

This week, the AI and tech sectors will no longer be calm, as two opposing forces collide fiercely at the start of the week.  

### Bullish "Nuke" (Monday): Trump Signs the Genesis Mission  

Trump plans to sign this AI policy—compared to the Manhattan Project—at the White House. This is not merely an executive order, but a signal that the U.S. is elevating computing power to the level of national strategic security.  

- **Core Logic**: Mobilizing national resources to break through computing power bottlenecks and regulatory barriers hindering AI development.  

- **Market Impact**: This will deliver long-term and significant benefits to AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and the DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) track in the crypto space. It implies a substantial increase in power and computing resources, injecting confidence into investors concerned about computing power constraints.  

### Bearish "Snipe" (Tuesday): Short-Seller Michael Burry Exposes Depreciation Scandal  

Michael Burry, who shorted the U.S. subprime mortgage market in 2008, has once again positioned himself against the market. He accuses tech giants of inflating profits by understating depreciation (extending the service life of servers), with the amount reaching $176 billion, and specifically names Meta and Oracle.  

- **In-Depth Analysis**: This is not a simple financial challenge, but a questioning of the sustainability of AI business models. If the market accepts Burry’s logic—i.e., rapid hardware iteration renders existing assets worthless—the high valuation logic of tech stocks will face a reassessment.  

- **Crypto Perspective**: If the Nasdaq corrects due to Burry’s short report, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, will inevitably be affected. However, if the market ignores the news (believing cash flows remain strong), the rebound will be even more robust.  

## Key Focus 2: The Final Macro Hurdle – PCE Data and Geopolitical Ultimatum  

- **November 26 (Wednesday), Beijing Time**: U.S. October Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP Revision  

- **November 27 (Thursday), Beijing Time**: Deadline for Ukraine to accept Trump’s 28-point peace plan  

### 1. The Final Confirmation for a December Rate Cut  

New York Fed President John Williams hinted over the weekend that a December rate cut would be appropriate, directly pushing market expectations for a rate cut back to 70%. Since the Federal Reserve will enter its quiet period this Friday (the 29th), Wednesday’s PCE data will be the "final verdict" for this round of market gaming.  

#### Scenario Simulation:  

- **In Line with Expectations (Moderate)**: As long as PCE does not accelerate significantly, Williams’ dovish comments will be the official stance. The market will confirm a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, leading to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index and利好 (benefiting) BTC’s push toward $90,000.  

- **Above Expectations (Overheating)**: This will deal a severe blow to Williams’ credibility and trigger violent swings in expectations. Given the reduced liquidity ahead of Thanksgiving, this may lead to defensive selling in the market before the holiday.  

### 2. Separating Truth from Fiction in Geopolitics  

Trump claims November 27 is the deadline for Ukraine to accept the 28-point peace plan.  

- **Potential Risks**: If a peace agreement is reached, it will be seen as a major easing of global geopolitical risks,利好 (benefiting) risky assets. If negotiations break down or tensions escalate, the safe-haven properties of gold and Bitcoin may be reactivated, but this will also be accompanied by a surge in market volatility.  

## Other Notable Events  

- **Tuesday**: Alibaba Earnings Report. As a bellwether for Chinese concept stocks, its results will test the resilience of China’s e-commerce sector amid macro headwinds.  

- **Thursday**: U.S. Markets Closed for Thanksgiving. Watch out for liquidity drying up on Wednesday evening (during U.S. stock trading hours) as the holiday approaches, which often amplifies price volatility in the crypto market.  

## Weekly Summary and Outlook  

In summary, the main theme of this week’s market is "recovery and gaming."  

Williams’ comments have put an end to last week’s macro panic, and BTC’s return above $86,000 is the best proof. The focus now shifts to a deeper battle of logics: should we believe in the "boundless future of AI" brought by Trump’s Genesis Mission, or worry about the "earnings bubble" in the eyes of short-sellers?  

For crypto investors, the most dangerous moment in macro markets seems to have passed (unless PCE drops a bombshell). The trading rhythm this week should focus on:  

- Early week: Seize policy dividends from the AI narrative.  

- Mid-week: Closely monitor the release of PCE data.  

- Late week: Guard against "whipsaw risks" amid low liquidity around Thanksgiving.  

## Disclaimer  

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice for this platform. This platform makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness of the information in the article, nor does it assume any responsibility for losses arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein.