Morning News

### Source: Wall Street CN

#### Market Overview

Last Friday, mounting concerns over AI weighed heavily on U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq Composite closed down nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 dropped more than 1%, with both indices turning negative for the whole week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back from its record high but still gained over 1% weekly, extending its winning streak to three consecutive weeks.

Semiconductor and AI stocks suffered a sharp decline. Nvidia fell more than 3%, leading the slump among tech giants. The semiconductor index plummeted over 5%. Broadcom tumbled 11% after its earnings conference call. Oracle, hit by news of delayed data center projects, dropped 4.5% and slumped nearly 15% in the two days following the release of its financial report. In contrast, Tesla rebounded nearly 3% against the overall downward trend. Cannabis stocks soared, with Canopy Growth surging 54%.

Long - term U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the yield on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury note approached a three - month high. The U.S. Dollar Index pulled away from its nearly eight - week low after falling for three consecutive weeks. Offshore renminbi broke below the 7.05 mark, pulling back from its 14 - month high, but still rose more than 100 pips throughout the week. Cryptocurrencies declined across the board: Bitcoin fell nearly 4% intraday, and Ethereum dropped over 6% at one point.

Gold kept setting new highs for more than seven consecutive weeks; after rising nearly 2% intraday, it once turned lower. Silver and copper prices plunged after hitting new highs. Silver futures dropped more than 5% at one stage, while London copper fell 3% and turned negative for the week. Crude oil declined for two consecutive sessions, dropping over 4% weekly, with U.S. crude oil closing at a seven - month low.

During the Asian trading session, A - shares recovered after hitting a low. The ChiNext Index rose 0.97%, with controllable nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace sectors leading the gains, and power grid equipment stocks strengthening. Hong Kong stocks opened higher and moved higher; both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed over 1%, driven by a broad rally in tech stocks and strong performance in non - ferrous metal sectors.

#### Key News

When talking about scientific and technological innovation achievements at the Central Economic Work Conference, Xi Jinping stated: "Practice has proven that attempts to hold us back by cutting off our access to core technologies will never succeed."

China's newly - added social financing reached 2.49 trillion yuan in November, with new RMB loans totaling 390 billion yuan. The gap between M2 and M1 (the M2 - M1 spread) widened.

He Lifeng emphasized that strict precautions must be taken to prevent financial risks from flaring up in 2026.

Han Wenxiu noted that incremental policies will be introduced and implemented next year according to changes in the situation to promote the synchronization of residents' income growth with economic growth. Efforts will be made to both expand exports and increase imports.

Multiple Chinese government ministries and commissions responded to the Central Economic Work Conference:

1. The People's Bank of China stated that it will flexibly and efficiently employ various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.

2. The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that practical and innovative measures will be rolled out to boost consumption, while comprehensively regulating "involutionary competition" and fostering new drivers of development.

3. The Ministry of Commerce and two other departments announced plans to strengthen coordination between commercial and financial sectors to stimulate consumption with greater intensity.

4. The Ministry of Finance said it will make full use of funds from various government bonds, issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and promote a stabilization of investment after a downturn.

Vanke's three proposals to extend the maturity of its medium - term note "22 Vanke MTN004" were all rejected, but the company still has a 5 - working - day grace period. The Securities Times commented that the note cannot be deemed as a "default", and Vanke may actively promote negotiations during the grace period.

It is reported that Moutai will introduce a production and sales volume control policy soon. On Saturday, the price of Feitian Moutai jumped four times in a single day, rising to 1,580 yuan per bottle.

Donald Trump said he prefers to nominate either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chair. He hopes that interest rates can drop to 1% or lower in a year and claimed that he should play a role in discussions with the Federal Reserve on interest rate issues.

It is reported that Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh and warned that Kevin Hassett's appointment would undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve. Following Dimon's endorsement, the market's predicted probability of Warsh taking office surged by 24 percentage points at one point. Hassett stated that whoever among him and Warsh takes office should engage in dialogue with Trump, adding that Trump can provide suggestions to the Federal Reserve but has no right to dictate its actions.

The "New Fed Wire" reported that Federal Reserve officials are debating whether interest rate cuts will undermine efforts to curb inflation, and voting members of the Fed's policy - making committee will still hold divergent views on policies next year. Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a voting member next year, argued that inflation is no longer the biggest threat, and the downside risks to employment are more worrying. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, explained his opposition to interest rate cuts, stating that the Fed should wait for more inflation data. Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, also opposed rate cuts, citing excessively high inflation.

Fears related to AI intensified further. It was revealed that Oracle's completion of some data centers will be delayed until 2028, and Oracle's credit default swaps (CDS) rose to their highest level since 2009. Oracle denied the news, claiming that there have been no delays in all contracted data center projects. Securities filings showed that Oracle secured $150 billion worth of data center leases in the three months ending November.

A draft of the latest peace proposal was leaked, stating that Ukraine plans to join the European Union as early as 2027. Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued that the United States' demands for Ukraine to withdraw its troops unilaterally and establish a "free economic zone" are unfair. A U.S. special envoy stated that the Berlin talks between the United States and Ukraine achieved "significant progress", and the two sides will continue the negotiations on the 15th.

#### Market Closing Quotes

1. **U.S. and European Stocks**

   - The S&P 500 fell 1.07% to close at 6,827.41, dropping 0.63% weekly.

   - The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.51% to 48,458.05, posting a weekly gain of 1.05%.

   - The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.69% to 23,195.169, down 1.62% for the week.

   - Europe's STOXX 600 Index closed 0.53% lower at 578.24, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.09%.

2.  **A - shares**

   - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3,889.35.

   - The Shenzhen Component Index climbed 0.84% to 13,258.33.

   - The ChiNext Index advanced 0.97% to 3,194.36.

3.  **Bond Market**

   By the end of the bond trading session, the yield on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury note stood at approximately 4.18%, up about 2 basis points intraday and 4 basis points for the week. The yield on the 2 - year U.S. Treasury note was around 3.52%, falling 2 basis points on the day and 4 basis points weekly.

4.  **Commodities**

   - WTI Crude Oil Futures for January delivery fell 0.28% to close at $57.44 per barrel, dropping about 4.4% weekly.

   - Brent Crude Oil Futures for February delivery declined 0.26% to $61.12 per barrel, with a weekly loss of around 4.1%.

   - COMEX Gold Futures for February delivery rose 0.35% to $4,328.3 per ounce, gaining 2% over the week.

   - COMEX Silver Futures for March delivery dropped 5% to $62.007 per ounce, yet still rose 5% weekly.

   - LME Copper Futures closed 3% lower at $11,515 per ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.9%.

# Details of Major News

## Global Highlights

When talking about the achievements of scientific and technological innovation at the Central Economic Work Conference, Xi Jinping stated: "Practice has proven that attempts to put us in a stranglehold by cutting off access to core technologies will never succeed." According to the WeChat official account of People's Daily, the General Secretary emphasized the need to "establish and practice a correct view of political achievements", which has distinct practical relevance. Looking outward, China has shown calm confidence to the world. Looking inward, regarding the investment slowdown, from the perspective of the requirements for basically realizing socialist modernization, there is enormous room for investment both in material assets and human capital. "Faced with changes in the international situation and various risks and challenges, we must maintain strategic resolve and unswervingly do our own things well."

People's Daily reported that the General Secretary pointed out at the Central Economic Work Conference that the development of new-quality productive forces should be adapted to local conditions.

In November, China's newly added social financing reached 2.49 trillion yuan, with 390 billion yuan in new RMB loans. By the end of the month, the outstanding balance of RMB loans stood at 271 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The cumulative increase in RMB loans in the first eleven months reached 15.36 trillion yuan. The M2 money supply in November rose by 8% year-on-year, down from 8.2% in the previous month. The M2-M1 spread widened to 3.1 percentage points, up from 2 percentage points in October.

He Lifeng emphasized that strict precautions must be taken to prevent financial risks from flaring up in 2026. According to Xinhua News Agency, He Lifeng also stated that efforts will be made to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, steadily advance the reform and opening-up of the financial sector in an orderly manner, and improve expectation management.

Han Wenxiu noted that incremental policies will be introduced and implemented next year in response to changes in the situation, so as to promote the synchronization of residents' income growth with economic growth. The Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission said that China's total economic output is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year, and positive progress has been made in defusing risks in key areas. Next year, efforts will be made to both expand exports and increase imports.

Multiple Chinese central ministries and commissions have responded to the Central Economic Work Conference:

1.  **People's Bank of China**: It will flexibly and efficiently employ various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and well grasp the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation.

2.  **Media supervised by the People's Bank of China**: It will give top priority to adhering to domestic demand-led development. Financial News pointed out that in the coming period, the characteristics of the domestic market driving the national economic cycle will become more prominent. To adhere to a domestic demand-led model and expand domestic demand in all aspects, efforts should be made to vigorously boost residents' consumption and promote a stabilization of investment after a downturn.

3.  **National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)**: The NDRC highlighted its key priorities for next year. It will roll out practical and innovative measures to boost consumption, comprehensively regulate "involutionary competition", and foster new drivers of development. Multiple measures will be taken to stabilize investment, giving full play to the role of various government investment funds including those for major national strategies and key security areas as well as newly added local government special bonds, and appropriately increasing the scale of central budgetary investment. Xiao Weiming, Deputy Secretary-General of the NDRC, stated that effective control over high-energy-consumption and high-emission projects will be imposed starting next year.

4.  **Ministry of Finance**: It will make full use of funds from various government bonds and issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to drive investment to stabilize after the downturn. It will support the optimization of the implementation of policies for new technologies and new industries, leverage the dual interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans and loans to service sector business entities, and strongly back the launch of special initiatives to boost consumption. Additionally, it will appropriately expand the scale of central budgetary investment, optimize the implementation of major national strategic projects and key security projects, refine the management of the use of local government special bonds, better exert the leading effect of government investment, and promote the stabilization of investment.

5.  **Ministry of Commerce and Two Other Ministries**: They will strengthen coordination between commercial and financial sectors to boost consumption with greater intensity. The circular put forward measures including enhancing consumer financial services for bulk durable goods and digital products; rationally determining the loan issuance ratio, term, and interest rate based on customers' repayment capacity and credit status; implementing differentiated policies on the limit, term, and interest rate of personal consumption loans to accelerate the development of personal consumption loan businesses; and appropriately waiving or reducing liquidated damages incurred by early loan repayment during the car trade-in process.

All three proposals for extending the maturity of Vanke's medium-term note "22 Vanke MTN004" were rejected, but the company still has a 5-working-day grace period. According to an announcement released on Saturday the 13th, none of the three extension proposals were validly approved at the bondholders' meeting for Vanke's 4th Medium-Term Note in 2022, namely "22 Vanke MTN004". The core extension rule for all proposals was a one-year extension with no principal or interest paid during the period, with differences lying in the credit enhancement arrangements. As reported by Securities Times, insiders indicated that it is premature to determine an event of default for "22 Vanke MTN004", and Vanke is expected to actively promote negotiations during the grace period.

Donald Trump stated that he prefers to nominate either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chair and hopes that interest rates can drop to 1% or lower in a year. Trump said he will not appoint anyone to the Federal Reserve who would sharply raise interest rates to curb inflation as soon as positive economic news emerges. He argued that the next Fed Chair should consult with him before setting interest rates, claiming that he should play an advisory role in discussions with the Fed regarding interest rate matters.

Wall Street has made its stance clear on who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair: Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh over Kevin Hassett. Dimon explicitly stated that Warsh would be an "excellent chair" and warned that Hassett might be more compliant with the White House's desire for interest rate cuts. However, this could trigger a counter-reaction in the market, leading to a rise rather than a fall in long-term borrowing costs and undermining the Fed's crucial independence.

Following Dimon's endorsement, the market's predicted probability of Warsh being appointed as the new Fed Chair surged by 24 percentage points at one point.

Hassett stated on Sunday that if Warsh becomes the Fed Chair, he hopes Warsh will engage in dialogue with Trump. He also expressed his willingness to communicate with Trump if he himself takes up the post. He noted that Trump may offer suggestions to the Fed but has no right to dictate its actions. The President's opinions will carry "no weight"; if they are not based on data, policymakers can freely reject them and "vote differently".

Is a drastic change on the horizon? Will the U.S. Treasury merge with the Federal Reserve, making Janet Yellen the real "shadow Fed Chair"? Stephen Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, argued that the Fed's resumption of balance sheet purchase operations is essentially to provide financing guarantees for Treasury expenditures, and the balance sheets of the two institutions are indeed moving towards integration. Yellen will effectively become the superior of potential successors like Hassett, and the Treasury will take the lead in formulating financing strategies—specifically, injecting liquidity into the short-end of the yield curve to lower financing costs. This cheap capital strategy is expected to push up inflation next year.

Nick Timiraos, the prominent financial journalist known as the "New Fed Wire", reported that Fed officials are debating whether interest rate cuts will hinder inflation control efforts, and voting members of the Fed's policy-making committee will remain divided on policies next year. In an article published on Friday, Timiraos stated that the public remarks made by Fed officials that day further highlighted why this week's interest rate cut decision was so controversial. One official claimed that the Fed still has room for additional rate cuts if the labor market weakens, while others warned that rate cuts could jeopardize the Fed's hard-won progress in taming inflation.

As a voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee for 2026 and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Tiffany Paulson argued that inflation is no longer the biggest threat; instead, the downside risks to employment are more worrying. She pointed out that the labor market is currently in a state of being "bent but not broken", with significantly increased downside risks and sluggish overall hiring activity. Paulson predicted that inflation will ease next year and emphasized that the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% remains restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, explained his opposition to Wednesday's interest rate cut, stating that the Fed should wait for more inflation data and predicting that the number of rate cuts next year will exceed the median forecast. Goolsbee argued that with inflation having stayed above the target for four and a half consecutive years and progress stalling recently, the Fed should exercise patience before obtaining more data. Despite adopting a hawkish stance in the short term, he remains optimistic about a significant drop in interest rates over the next year, provided that subsequent data alleviates his concerns about the recent inflation anomalies.

Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, also opposed Wednesday's rate cut, citing excessively high inflation. In a statement, Schmid emphasized that inflation remains too elevated, the economy continues to demonstrate growth momentum, and although the labor market has cooled slightly, it remains balanced overall. He added that the current monetary policy stance is at most moderately restrictive, and may not even be restrictive at all. Faced with persistent inflationary pressures, he advocated maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance.

Fears surrounding AI have intensified as reports emerged that Oracle will delay the completion of some data centers until 2028. Following a surge in Oracle's AI-related expenditures and Broadcom's earnings call that failed to meet investors' high expectations, media outlets reported that Oracle has pushed back the completion date of some data centers built for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028, primarily due to labor and material shortages. Oracle's stock price plummeted by over 6% at one point, dragging down AI stocks and even power sector stocks across the board. Its bonds were treated as junk bonds, and its credit default swaps (CDS) soared to their highest level since 2009. Oracle later denied the reports, claiming that there have been no delays in any contracted data center projects.

Oracle's sharp stock decline has reignited discussions about an AI bubble, yet few investors dare to short the stock. The company's warning of a $15 billion surge in capital expenditures triggered a 16.5% nosedive in its stock price, reviving concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector. While prominent short seller Burry has warned of bubble risks, short-selling activities have been concentrated on small-cap companies, with limited bearish bets on leading AI stocks. Analysts pointed out that this is a problem specific to Oracle rather than a flaw in the entire AI sector.

Oracle's $300 billion high-stakes bet has made it the epicenter of the AI bubble and a barometer of the market. No other tech giant has bet so heavily on AI as Oracle. Whether the company can succeed in the end will serve as a key indicator of whether the entire industry is experiencing genuine prosperity or just a bubble.

Securities regulatory filings revealed that Oracle secured $150 billion worth of data center leases in the three months ending November.

"Even China might not pull this off!" Texas is flooded with an AI bubble, as large-scale projects totaling over 220 gigawatts (GW) have applied to connect to the state's power grid by 2030. A report from ERCOT, Texas' power grid operator, showed that the total capacity of large projects seeking grid connection by 2030 has exceeded 220 GW, more than twice the state's peak power demand this summer, with over 70% of these projects being data centers. The number of large-scale power grid connection applications in Texas has nearly quadrupled this year, and more than half of them—approximately 128 GW worth of projects—have not yet been submitted to ERCOT for review.

The decline in oil prices has narrowed! A draft of the latest peace proposal has been exposed, stating that Ukraine plans to join the European Union as early as 2027. Reports indicate that the U.S.-brokered peace draft for Ukraine outlines a timeline where Ukraine could join the EU as soon as 2027, skipping the regular 36-stage accession process. This radical plan would completely overhaul the EU's expansion system. Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that the U.S. will ensure unimpeded accession, but significant differences persist between the U.S. and Ukraine on issues such as control over eastern Ukraine and the management of demilitarized zones, while Russia has adopted a tough stance and refused to make concessions.

Zelenskyy argued that the U.S. demands for Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw its troops and establish a "free economic zone" are unfair, and Ukraine must view the peace process realistically.

A U.S. special envoy stated that the Berlin talks between the U.S. and Ukraine achieved significant progress. On Sunday, U.S. Presidential Envoy Wittkopf released a summary of the talks held in Berlin, Germany. The summary indicated that representatives from both sides conducted in-depth discussions on the peace plan, economic agenda, and other issues. The talks yielded substantial progress, and the two parties will meet again on the morning of the 15th.

## Domestic Macroeconomy

Mexico will impose additional tariffs on China and several other Asian countries starting next year, with a 35% tariff rate set for most commodities. China stated that it is closely monitoring the situation. According to the Global Times, under the relevant bill, Mexico will levy tariffs on goods such as automobiles, auto parts, textiles, clothing, plastics, and steel, with 35% being the standard rate for most of these products. Although the Mexican government claims the move aims to support domestic industries, it has faced strong opposition from many Mexican business groups.

CCTV analyzed that there will be four key shifts in China's real estate policies in 2026. First, the policy objective will shift from "promoting a recovery from declines" to "focusing on stabilization" to consolidate the stable market trend. Second, three key directions will be clarified—controlling new supply, destocking existing inventory, and optimizing supply—with the new concept of "optimizing supply" proposed for the first time. Third, provident fund reforms and the construction of quality housing will be adopted as new policy tools. Fourth, urban renewal will be elevated from a real estate-specific initiative to a key task in expanding domestic demand.

The State Administration for Market Regulation has guided automobile manufacturers and sellers to establish a systematic internal price compliance management system to prevent price violations at the source. The document specifies requirements for the pricing practices of automobile sales enterprises, focusing on the new car sales link and aiming to rectify prominent issues such as failure to clearly mark prices as required and false promotions. Measures include refining rules for clear price marking to strictly distinguish between automobile product prices and sales service prices and prohibiting surcharges beyond the marked prices; regulating promotional activities by requiring prominent disclosure of promotion rules, periods, and restrictive conditions, and truthfully indicating information about free gifts; detailing forms of price fraud; establishing a risk reminder mechanism that encourages platforms to issue dual warnings about operational and consumer risks associated with unusually low prices; and standardizing service charges by banning practices such as charging without providing services, duplicate charges, and passing on costs to consumers.

The National Healthcare Security Administration encourages commercial health insurance institutions to expand their investment in innovative drugs and strive to basically achieve zero personal out-of-pocket expenses for childbirth within the scope of medical insurance policies nationwide by 2026. The administration also stated that it will conduct targeted unannounced inspections on overall planning regions and designated medical institutions with extremely high personal medical expense ratios that rank among the highest in the country, resolutely safeguarding the health rights and interests of the general public. It will promote the inclusion of flexibly employed individuals, migrant workers, and those in new forms of employment into the maternity insurance system, incorporate appropriate labor analgesia projects into the scope of fund reimbursement in accordance with procedures, and release the 3.0 version of the diagnosis-related group-based payment classification plan.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers emphasized that automobile manufacturers and sellers should proactively identify and alert to price risks and consciously regulate irrational competition. The association noted that compliance with laws and regulations is an unshakable bottom line for business operations. Establishing a sound internal price compliance management mechanism, actively conducting price risk identification and early warning, and consciously regulating irrational competition will not only help enterprises avoid brand damage and customer loss caused by price violations and build a good image of honest operation but also enhance consumers' trust in enterprise brands. While safeguarding consumers' rights and interests, it will urge automobile manufacturers to focus more on brand building, product quality, and service improvement, thereby maintaining a fair competitive environment and promoting the healthy development of the industry.

A landmark regulation has been introduced, imposing stricter controls on the fund sales sector. The Asset Management Association of China recently released the "Code of Conduct for the Sales of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Draft for Comments)". The draft explicitly prohibits excessive promotion of fund managers for the purpose of rapid fund-raising, forbids confusing fund managers' years of service with their actual investment management experience, and establishes an accountability mechanism for short-term sales practices such as inducing investors to subscribe and redeem funds frequently in the short term. Additionally, it regulates the entire chain of fund promotion through live streaming, including qualification verification, process supervision, and material preservation. It also requires clarifying information-related fees to fully protect investors' right to information.

### Proposed New Rules by AMAC: Performance Disclosure Period Must Exceed 6 Months, and Investor Profit and Loss Included in Performance Appraisals

Specifically, any disclosed period of fund performance shall be more than six months, and annualized display of performance for periods less than one year is prohibited, unless otherwise specified by laws and regulations. Promotional terms such as "positive returns" or "probability of positive returns" that may cause investors to overlook risks are not allowed. Those conducting live-streaming promotions must hold fund practice qualifications. Investor profit and loss must be incorporated into performance appraisals, including indicators such as long-term investment returns and the proportion of profitable investors. Sales revenue and scale shall not be used as the main assessment indicators.

### Domestic Companies

1. **Kunlunxin Gains Momentum! Wall Street Optimistic About Baidu, Predicting It May Repeat Google’s AI Comeback**. The expectation of the spin-off and listing of Kunlunxin, Baidu’s chip subsidiary, is prompting Wall Street to revalue Baidu. The valuation logic is shifting from traditional businesses to hard technology assets centered on chips. Macquarie Securities estimates that Baidu’s 59% stake in Kunlunxin is worth approximately $16.5 billion, accounting for about 30% of its target valuation for Baidu. Kunlunxin’s revenue is expected to double to around $1.4 billion next year, placing it in the same tier as Cambricon.

2. **Leading Institutions Adjust IPO Subscription Strategies, Involving Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit**. To secure a higher proportion of new share allocations, leading institutions are actively adjusting their IPO subscription strategies for the Growth Tier of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. In the recent IPOs of Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit, over 70% of Class A investors including public funds and social security funds opted for subscription under the tier with the strictest lock-up conditions. This stands in stark contrast to the previous 30% subscription ratio for this tier. The shift is directly driven by the nearly tenfold increase in allocation rates brought by the stricter lock-up tiers under the new regulations.

3.  **Jiangxi Copper Makes Third Bid for SolGold with Nearly 8% Increase, Targeting Top Copper-Gold Mine in South America**. Jiangxi Copper’s latest offer is 7.7% higher than the previous one, with a total value of $1.13 billion. SolGold’s board stated that it "intends to recommend" the offer if Jiangxi Copper submits a formal bid on these terms. Jiangxi Copper has secured the support of other major shareholders. If the acquisition succeeds, its long-term copper ore output is expected to double.

4.  **Modeling After the Smartphone Ecosystem? Yushu Launches Industry-First Humanoid Robot App Store, Enabling "Ready-to-Use" Complex Movements**. As the industry’s first content distribution platform dedicated to modularizing and standardizing the functions of humanoid robots, it aims to address the long-standing challenges of difficult development of complex robot movements and high user entry barriers.

5.  **Price Volatility of Moutai: Volume Control Policies Expected Soon**. Media reports indicate that Moutai will soon introduce volume control policies, covering two dimensions: short-term burden reduction and medium-to-long-term structural reforms. On Saturday, the price of Feitian Moutai (2025 vintage) surged four times in a single day, reaching 1,580 yuan per bottle.

6.  **Moore Threads Plans 7.5 Billion Yuan for Financial Management, Sparking Heated Discussions Among Investors**. A relevant person in charge of Moore Threads stated that the actual amount of cash management will be significantly lower than the upper limit, and cash management will never affect the normal implementation of raised capital projects or the company’s core business operations.

### Overseas Macroeconomy

1.  **Super Central Bank Week Arrives! Japan Takes the Lead in Raising Interest Rates; Is the "Interest Rate Cut Cycle" of Developed Countries Drawing to a Close, and Will the Fed Cut Rates Alone Next Year?** 2025 marks a crucial turning point for global monetary policies. This week, the Bank of Japan is on the verge of raising interest rates, the UK may implement its final interest rate cut, and the European Central Bank is likely to stand pat. If the Fed continues to cut rates next year, it will be left "fighting alone", which will intensify policy divergences among global central banks. Wall Street warns that downward pressure on the US dollar is accumulating, and it may be unable to stem the decline in 2026.

2.  **UK GDP Unexpectedly Contracts in October, Triggering Fiercer Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts This Week**. The UK’s GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month in October, a surprise drop, and inflation expectations have retreated from a two-year high. The market puts the probability of an interest rate cut at 90%. The weak data is mainly due to widespread wait-and-see attitudes among enterprises amid uncertainties surrounding the tax increase budget, with simultaneous contractions in sectors such as construction and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in household inflation expectations has further alleviated the central bank’s concerns about "inflation stickiness".

3.  **Bank of Japan May Maintain Commitment to "Gradual Rate Hikes" but Downplay Neutral Interest Rate Guidance**. Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its rate-hike commitment next week and may raise interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, it will weaken the use of "neutral interest rates" as a policy guideline and emphasize that the pace of rate hikes will depend on the impact of each adjustment on lending, financing, and the real economy. The deeply negative real interest rates justify further tightening, and even if the interest rate rises to 0.75%, the monetary environment will remain accommodative.

4.  **Will the Fed’s RMP Purchase $500 Billion of Short-Term US Treasury Bonds Next Year? Wall Street Calls It Aggressive**. The Fed’s RMP program is far more aggressive than market expectations. Institutions led by Barclays and JPMorgan Chase predict that the Fed may absorb approximately $500 billion of short-term US Treasury bonds next year, making it the dominant buyer in the short-term Treasury market over the next year. Analysts argue that this aggressive move reflects the Fed’s "extremely low tolerance" for financing pressures.

5.  **The Most Important Message from Powell’s Press Conference: "Systematic Overestimation of Employment"**. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the highlight of the meeting was Powell’s acknowledgment of the "systematic overestimation" of non-farm payrolls. Current official data may overstate employment by 60,000 jobs per month, and the actual job market may have slipped into a downward spiral with a monthly decrease of 20,000 jobs. This grim situation has tilted the Fed’s focus toward "protecting employment". Institutions expect rising unemployment to force interest rate cuts, and the market is betting on more aggressive easing measures.

6.  **Wall Street Turns Bearish: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank Bet on Fed Rate Cuts, Predicting Unstoppable US Dollar Decline in 2026**. Wall Street generally anticipates that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs predict that the US dollar will continue to weaken in 2026. While the Fed persists with rate cuts, central banks in Europe, Japan, and other regions tend to maintain or even raise interest rates, which will erode the attractiveness of US dollar assets. If the Fed’s rate cuts exceed expectations and non-US economies recover, the US dollar may face sustained depreciation pressure.

7.  **Goldman Sachs Predicts Top 10 Key Industry Themes for 2026**. 2026 is regarded as a make-or-break year for AI commercialization. Goldman Sachs has proposed ten key industry themes, ranging from the rise of generative AI and agent-based search, the in-depth integration of advertising, e-commerce, and social commerce, the challenges of high capital expenditures and cloud performance reviews, the accelerated implementation of autonomous driving, to spatial computing, interactive entertainment, health technology, and the rebalancing of enterprises between growth and investment. These themes will collectively form the main industrial trends of the new year.

8.  **Top 10 Potential Black Swan Events in the Global Market for 2026**. A report by Deutsche Bank argues that the biggest market surprise in the future may be "no surprises", but extreme risks in both directions still need to be guarded against. In an optimistic scenario, the AI boom may drive strong US economic growth and a stock market surge. In a pessimistic scenario, recurring inflation, the burst of the AI bubble, and a sovereign debt crisis could trigger severe volatility.

9.  **Deutsche Bank’s In-Depth Report: Distinguishing the Real and Fake AI Bubbles**. Deutsche Bank contends that the current AI boom is not a single bubble but an interweaving of three bubbles: valuation, investment, and technology. Valuations of giants in the public market are supported by profits, while those of private companies have become extremely inflated. The massive investment is driven by cash flow rather than debt expansion, but complex circular financing and potential technological bottlenecks pose underlying risks. Despite strong AI demand and plummeting costs, energy and chip supplies may become the ultimate constraints.

10. **Multiple US States to Sue Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Visa Application Fee Policy**. The lawsuit claims that this fee creates an expensive and illegal barrier for employers to use this popular visa program, particularly harming the public sector. The states also argue that the fee amount is arbitrarily set and exceeds the charging authority granted by Congress.

11. **Indian Rupee Hits Record Low Amid $2.5 Billion Capital Outflow**. Defying the benefit of a weaker US dollar, foreign capital sold a net $2.5 billion worth of Indian stocks and bonds in December, with cumulative outflows reaching $18 billion this year. Coupled with the prolonged stalemate in US-India trade negotiations dampening market confidence, the Indian rupee has emerged as one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies this year. Although the Reserve Bank of India has intervened by selling US dollars through state-owned banks, analysts warn that the rupee’s weakness may worsen if tariff policies persist.

12. **Will Silver Become the New Gold?** Severe supply-demand imbalance provides a solid fundamental foundation. Geopolitical risks have intensified market volatility, while retail investors’ enthusiasm and fear of missing out (FOMO) have further boosted demand. Expectations of US dollar depreciation triggered by the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle have enhanced silver’s financial appeal. As analysts put it, "Silver is becoming the new gold".

### Overseas Companies

1.  **Broadcom’s Earnings Call Dashes Investors’ High Expectations**. Broadcom announced that it currently has a backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders to be delivered over the next six quarters. The figure disappointed some investors, even though Hock Tan later clarified that it represents the "minimum value" and expects more orders to pour in. However, the stock price turned downward after the earnings call, plummeting more than 10% intraday on Friday. Regarding market debates about "customers developing chips independently", Hock Tan dismissed it as an "exaggerated assumption".

2.  **Goldman Sachs Remains Confident in Broadcom’s AI Business**. Goldman Sachs stated that although Broadcom delivered strong Q4 results and a significant surge in AI revenue, it may face short-term pressure due to its failure to raise the full-year guidance for fiscal year 2026. The bank maintains a "buy" rating, believing that Broadcom holds a solid position in custom chips, its AI growth rate is underestimated, and it is expected to outperform in the medium to long term. The $73 billion order backlog, along with new customers and large orders, will strengthen its growth momentum.

3.  **Moore Threads vs. Nvidia: A Premature Retreat?** According to Dolphin Research, Broadcom’s current stock price already factors in expectations from newly added customers, orders, and increased capital expenditures of major manufacturers. After deducting orders from new customers from the disclosed $73 billion AI backlog, there is limited room for growth among existing clients like Google, which has dampened market sentiment in the short term. In the long run, however, there is room for growth driven by its cost-effectiveness advantage and the potential for external supply of Google’s TPUs.

4.  **OpenAI’s 10th Anniversary: From Non-Profit Lab to $500 Billion Empire**. In 2015, Elon Musk and Sam Altman founded OpenAI as a non-profit lab with the mission of "benefiting humanity". A decade later, it has transformed into a $500 billion commercial empire. With the launch of ChatGPT-5.2, the company’s valuation and infrastructure spending have soared simultaneously. On the other side of the trillion-dollar market, Musk, once an ally, has become an archenemy, launching an all-out counterattack with xAI, valued at $230 billion.

5.  **GPT-5.2 Review: Powerful in Complex Tasks but Frustratingly Slow**. GPT-5.2 has demonstrated extraordinary capabilities in in-depth reasoning and code generation, with a significantly stronger willingness to follow complex instructions and higher task completion rates than previous versions. However, reviews note that its standard "thinking" mode is overly slow, seriously affecting the user experience and forcing users to switch between different models based on task requirements to balance speed and depth.

6.  **GPT-5.2 Faces Backlash Within 24 Hours of Launch**. Reddit users have criticized GPT-5.2 extensively, calling it dull, overly cautious, and treating adults like young children. Its most serious flaw is its lack of emotional intelligence. When a user shared, "I also have panic attacks", the AI responded, "Great to hear that!" Its score in the SimpleBench common sense test even lagged behind Claude Sonnet 3.7, released a year earlier, leading to criticism that it "feels like a regression rather than an upgrade".

7.  **Google’s Hidden Agenda: Launching the Most Advanced Research-Focused Agent**. On the same day GPT-5.2 was released, Google launched a revamped version of Gemini Deep Research, its most advanced research-focused agent, aiming to establish itself as the foundational gateway for agents. In the future, instead of users searching on Google, their agents may do all the searching on their behalf.

8.  **Nvidia to Host Summit to Address Power Shortages**. To tackle the power shortage bottleneck hindering AI development, Nvidia will hold a closed-door summit next week. The event will gather startups in the power and electrical engineering sectors, including those invested in by Nvidia, to jointly explore solutions. This move sends a clear signal that energy has become a critical link in the AI race, and Nvidia is building an ecosystem to ensure its future growth.

9.  **Ciena Reports Strong Orders from Cloud Service Providers**. Ciena stated that orders from cloud service providers are robust and growing across all its product portfolios, with expected 24% year-on-year revenue growth in fiscal year 2026. The company anticipates strong demand to persist into 2027. Insufficient investment in networks by cloud providers has become a key bottleneck for large-scale AI operations.

10. **Crypto Tycoon Sentenced to 15 Years in Prison Over $40 Billion Luna Collapse**. A US federal judge in New York described the case as an "epic, generational-scale fraud", noting that few cases in federal prosecution history have caused greater financial losses. Prosecutors stated that the collapse of Terraform Labs in May 2022 led to losses exceeding $40 billion for hundreds of thousands of investors, triggering a chain reaction in the crypto market that ultimately resulted in the collapse of FTX and the "crypto winter" that lasted until early 2023.

11. **Warner Bros. Faces Make-or-Break Acquisition Deadline on December 22**. Paramount has made it clear that its $30-per-share offer is not its "best and final" bid. Analysts predict that if negotiations resume, Paramount may raise the offer to $32 per share, a level that will test Netflix’s willingness to fight back. Since news of Netflix’s interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery emerged in September, its market value has dropped by 20%. However, Netflix may now have a graceful exit: receiving a $2.8 billion deal termination fee while avoiding regulatory scrutiny risks. Warner Bros. must respond to Paramount’s proposal by December 22, a decision that will determine the outcome of this Hollywood acquisition battle.

12. **FDA Faces Internal Pressure to Accelerate Approval of Eli Lilly’s Oral Weight-Loss Drug**. Controversy has erupted within the FDA over the approval timeline for Orforglipron, Eli Lilly’s oral weight-loss drug. Senior officials are pushing to shorten the document review period from 60 days to 1 week, with a decision possibly as early as March 2026, much earlier than the original May deadline. In clinical trials, Orforglipron helped patients achieve an average weight loss of 12.4%, and is expected to become another blockbuster product in the obesity treatment sector.

### Industries/Concepts

1.  **Film and Television**: Data from Dengta Professional Edition shows that as of 2:26 PM on December 13, China’s total box office revenue in 2025 had exceeded 50 billion yuan (including pre-sales and service fees), an increase of nearly 7.5 billion yuan compared to the full-year 2024. The number of moviegoers reached 1.194 billion, up by approximately 184 million from 2024. *Ne Zha: Sea of Chaos* topped the box office rankings with 15.446 billion yuan.

2.  **Brain Science**: On December 13, Brain Tiger Technology announced the successful completion of the first clinical trial of its independently developed brain-computer interface (BCI) product—the first of its kind in China and the second globally featuring a built-in battery, fully implanted, wireless, and fully functional. An 8-year quadriplegic patient who was completely paralyzed below the shoulders can now browse web pages and play games after training. The product integrates all core modules, including the battery, into the human body without any external cables or interfaces, eliminating the infection risk associated with traditional external systems. Its wireless power supply and data transmission capabilities free patients from external devices, granting them true "wireless freedom" in mobility and dignity.

### 3. Metaverse  

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) publicly solicited opinions on the *Guidelines for the Construction of a Comprehensive Standardization System for the Metaverse Industry (2026 Edition)* (Draft for Comments). The Guidelines propose that by 2028, more than 20 national and industrial standards will be formulated, initially establishing a standard system to support the innovative development of the metaverse industry. By 2030, over 50 national and industrial standards will be developed, with proactive layout of key standards to underpin the high-quality development of future industries. Efforts will be made to accelerate the supply of international metaverse standards and promote the global development of the metaverse industry.  

### 4. Rural Revitalization  

A joint notice issued by the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce, the General Office of the People's Bank of China, and the General Office of the National Financial Regulatory Administration mentions expanding county-level consumption by providing credit support for activities such as the "New Rural Fairs, New Services, New Consumption" county-level commercial consumption season. It also aims to upgrade rural consumption, promote the sales of agricultural specialty products, and offer tailored financial services to exhibition platforms supporting rural revitalization, such as agricultural product production and sales conferences. Additionally, the notice supports the development of rural circulation by actively meeting the financing needs of new construction and renovation projects, including county-level logistics distribution centers and commercial and trade centers, and better satisfying the credit demands of cold chain logistics facilities and other projects.  

### 5. Cannabis  

According to Guancha.cn, U.S. President Donald Trump is secretly promoting a historic plan to significantly lower cannabis' federal classification, reducing its regulatory intensity to the same level as common prescription painkillers. This would mark the most fundamental shift in U.S. federal drug policy since the 1970s. Currently, cannabis is classified as a Schedule I controlled substance under U.S. federal law, on par with LSD (lysergic acid diethylamide).  

### 6. Commercial Spaceflight  

According to the Securities Times, Brett Johnson, Chief Financial Officer of SpaceX, wrote in an internal memo sent to employees last Friday that the company is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026. Earlier media reports indicated that SpaceX is seeking to go public in the mid-to-late next year with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion—an amount that would rival the roughly $1.7 trillion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.  

### 7. Smart Healthcare  

On the 13th, Zhang Ke, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA), stated that in 2026, the NHSA will further advance smart healthcare. It will guide medical institutions, pharmaceutical enterprises, scientific research institutions, and other stakeholders to extensively participate in promoting the development of artificial intelligence (AI) in the healthcare security field, and host the 4th Smart Healthcare Security Competition. Based on technological maturity, the NHSA will support willing localities in conducting scenario verification competitions, including disease-specific multi-modal AI-assisted diagnosis and treatment, AI image recognition on healthcare security cloud platforms, intelligent perception via medical simulators and health sensors, and the application of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces in healthcare security. These efforts aim to drive the in-depth integration of technological innovation and healthcare security.  

### Today's Key News Preview  

- China's November industrial value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, November total retail sales of consumer goods, and January-November real estate development investment.  

- November housing prices in 70 major Chinese cities.  

- Speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams (the Fed's third-ranking official), and other officials.  

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### Risk Warning and Disclaimer  

The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investors' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Investors should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this article are at the investor's own risk.