The U.S., European, and Korean stocks are closed for Christmas, the offshore RMB breaks through 7, gold loses $4,500, and silver fluctuates at high levels

# Source: Wall Street Insights

As the Christmas holiday approaches, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for one day. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will be suspended throughout the day. Trading of precious metals, U.S. crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will also be halted for the entire day. Most major European stock markets will close for the Christmas holiday, including those in Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain. In addition, markets in Australia and South Korea will be closed today. Overnight, U.S. stocks edged higher steadily amid thin trading volume, successfully kicking off the historically high-probability "Santa Claus rally", with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high.

On December 25, Asian stock indices were mixed, while Japanese government bond yields trended upward. The RMB and Japanese yen strengthened, with the offshore RMB breaking below the 7.0 mark. The precious metals market saw a correction after hitting new highs: gold lost the $4,500 per ounce level, platinum and palladium pulled back sharply, while silver maintained strength, fluctuating above $71 per ounce. Brent crude oil edged lower and cryptocurrencies moved higher.

### Core Market Movements are as Follows:

- The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.13% at 50,407.79 points; the Tokyo Stock Price Index closed up 0.3%.

- Japan’s 2-year government bond yield rose to 1.119%; the 5-year government bond yield climbed 1 basis point to 1.5%.

- The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke below the 7.0 mark for the first time since late September 2024; the Japanese yen rebounded to around 155.8.

- Spot gold fell over 0.1% to retrace to $4,479 per ounce; spot silver held steady at $71.80 per ounce; Brent crude oil dipped 0.05% to $61.84 per barrel.

- Bitcoin rose 0.18% to $87,779.81; Ethereum fell 0.26% to $2,937.87.

The offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.0 mark has become a key focus of the market recently. Industrial Securities believes that the recent RMB appreciation is not merely a passive reaction to the weakening U.S. dollar, but stems more from endogenous drivers including capital inflows and rising demand for foreign exchange settlement. Driven by the "push" from expectations of a shift to looser U.S. monetary policy and potential narrowing of China-U.S. interest rate spreads, coupled with the "pull" from the trend-based return of previously outflows, this round of RMB appreciation may have just started.

The Japanese yen rebounded to around 155.8. According to Wall Street Insights, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that with wage growth driving price increases, Japan is steadily moving closer to the 2% stable inflation target. If the economy performs as expected, the central bank will continue to pursue its interest rate hike path.

Weak demand at Japan’s 2-year government bond auction pushed yields of the tenor higher. The bid-to-cover ratio, a key indicator of demand, stood at 3.26, lower than the previous auction’s 3.53 and the 12-month average of 3.65. The 2-year government bond yield rose 2.5 basis points to 1.125%, hitting its highest level since 1996.

Gold pulled back below $4,500 after touching an all-time intraday high of $4,525.18. According to Wall Street Insights, the gold market saw a technical correction after breaking through the key $4,500 threshold. Despite the short-term pullback, analysts remain optimistic about the market outlook. Wyckoff pointed out that the next upside target for gold is $4,600 per ounce, expected to be reached by the end of the year, with the technical picture remaining bullish.

Silver performed relatively strongly, hitting an all-time intraday high of $72.70 before stabilizing at $71.80. Silver prices have surged 149% year-to-date, far outpacing gold’s 70% gain, supported by robust fundamentals. Wyckoff expects silver’s next upside target to be $75 per ounce, also likely to be achieved by year-end. Silver’s dual attributes of industrial demand and investment appeal have enabled it to outperform in this precious metals bull market.

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is inherently risky, and all investments should be made with caution. This document does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should carefully consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions contained in this document are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this document shall be at the user’s own risk.

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### Translation Notes

1.  **Market Terminology Accuracy**

   - "圣诞行情" is translated as *Santa Claus rally*, the universally accepted English term for the year-end stock market uptrend.

   - "认购倍数" is rendered as *bid-to-cover ratio*, the standard indicator for bond auction demand in financial markets.

   - "离岸人民币" is fixed as *offshore RMB*, with the exchange rate expression "破7" translated as *breaking below the 7.0 mark* to reflect the RMB appreciation trend.

2.  **Institution & Product Naming**

   - "洲际交易所" and "芝商所" are translated as *Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)* and *Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)*, using official English names and abbreviations.

   - Contract names like "布伦特原油期货" are translated as *Brent crude oil futures* to conform to global commodity trading conventions.

3.  **Contextual Adaptation**

   - "涨跌互现" is translated as *were mixed*, a common phrase to describe divergent movements of stock indices in English financial reports.

   - "内生动力" is rendered as *endogenous drivers*, accurately conveying the concept of internal market momentum in economics.

   - The dual attributes of silver are expressed as *industrial demand and investment appeal* to highlight its unique market positioning.

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