Morning News

Source: Wall Street News

## Market Overview

On Friday, the first trading day after Christmas, major U.S. stock indices traded sideways with low trading volume near record highs. Precious metals saw a "rally of frenzy", with gold, silver, copper and platinum all hitting all-time highs.

The three major U.S. stock indices edged lower, with the Russell Small Cap Index leading the declines. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped below 14. Tesla fell 2.1%, leading losses among the Magnificent Seven tech giants.

U.S. Treasury yields were basically flat for the whole week.

The U.S. dollar rebounded slightly by 0.08%. Offshore RMB traded sideways around the key 7.0 level.

Cryptocurrencies surged and then retreated. Bitcoin briefly broke through $89,000 during the day, then fell as much as 3.2% from its daily high. Ethereum approached $3,000 before turning lower.

Spot gold jumped more than 1%, hitting an intraday record high above $4,550. Silver soared 10% to stand above $79 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 8% to $2,413.62 per ounce, a new record high. COMEX copper futures climbed 5.01%.

There were signs of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with WTI crude oil falling 3.7% from its daily high.

In the early morning trading on Monday in Asian time, spot silver rose 5% to $83.31 per ounce.

## Key News

The dates for China's 2026 Two Sessions have been announced: the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will open on March 4, and the National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on March 5.

Ministry of Finance: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, and keep supporting the trade-in program for consumer goods.

Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size fell 13.1% year-on-year in November. For the first 11 months, profits rose slightly year-on-year, and the profit growth rate of high-tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins was the main reason for the slowdown in profit growth.

Paul Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Three measures will be taken to promote the internationalization of RMB, attract high-quality global companies to list in Hong Kong, and explore new opportunities in international gold trading.

Kremlin: Both Russian and U.S. presidents believe that a temporary ceasefire under the pretext of a referendum will only prolong the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Donald Trump stated that both Russia and Ukraine intend to end the conflict, and the U.S. and Ukraine will reach a security agreement.

CME Group issued a major margin adjustment notice on December 26, saying that it will comprehensively raise the performance margins for futures contracts of metals such as gold, silver and lithium after the close on December 29.

As silver prices soared, Elon Musk bluntly stated: This is not good!

Kweichow Moutai will no longer adopt the distribution model next year. The new chairman said: Moutai will not do anything that violates market laws, nor will it let channel partners lose money.

Xiaomi Group: Co-founder Lin Bin plans to reduce his holdings of the company's Class B common shares by no more than $2 billion.

## Market Closing Quotes

### U.S. and European Stock Markets

- S&P 500: Down 0.03% at 6,929.94 points, with a weekly gain of 1.40%.

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.04% at 48,710.97 points, with a weekly increase of 1.20%.

- Nasdaq Composite: Down 0.09% at 23,593.097 points, with a weekly rise of 1.22%.

### A - Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 3,963.68 points, up 0.10%.

- Shenzhen Component Index: Closed at 13,603.89 points, up 0.54%.

- ChiNext Index: Closed at 3,243.88 points, up 0.14%.

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield: Fell 0.38 basis points to 4.1297%, with a weekly drop of 1.74 basis points.

- U.S. 2 - year Treasury yield: Dropped 2.04 basis points to 3.4810%, with a weekly decline of 0.24 basis points.

### Commodities

- COMEX Gold Futures: Rose 1.33% to $4,563.00 per ounce, hitting an intraday record high, with a weekly increase of 4.06%.

- COMEX Silver Futures: Jumped 10.84% to $79.455 per ounce.

- COMEX Copper Futures: Climbed 5.01% to $5.8545 per pound, setting a new intraday record high.

- WTI Crude Oil Futures (February contract): Closed down 2.76% at $56.74 per barrel.

- Brent Crude Oil Futures (February contract): Closed down 2.57% at $60.64 per barrel.

# Detailed Key News

## Global Highlights

### Dates Set for China’s 2026 Two Sessions: CPPCC on March 4, NPC on March 5

According to CCTV News, the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will open in Beijing on March 5, 2026, and the fourth session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will convene in Beijing on March 4, 2026.

### Ministry of Finance: Proactive Fiscal Policy to Continue in 2026

The National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 27 to 28. The meeting noted that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, and keep supporting the trade-in program for consumer goods. Five key measures will be taken: first, expand the fiscal expenditure scale to ensure sufficient funding for essential spending; second, optimize the mix of government bond instruments to better leverage their effectiveness; third, improve the efficiency of transfer payment funds to enhance local governments' independent available fiscal resources; fourth, continuously refine the expenditure structure to strengthen support for key sectors; fifth, strengthen fiscal - financial coordination to amplify the combined effect of policies.

### Profit of China’s Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size Fell 13.1% YoY in November

In November, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. For the first 11 months, profits rose slightly year - on - year, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. Specifically, from January to November, the profits of high - tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 10.0% year - on - year, 2.0 percentage points faster than that from January to October, and 9.9 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that although there are positive signs, multiple unstable and uncertain factors in the international environment and structural adjustment pressures in the transformation of old and new industrial growth drivers mean that the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' efficiency still needs to be further consolidated.

The decline in industrial production and profit margins in November was the main reason for the slowdown in profit growth. In terms of structure, the profit margin of the manufacturing industry improved, while the profit margins of the mining industry and the production and supply industry of electricity, heat, gas and water declined compared with those in October. Weak domestic demand led to involuntary inventory build - up. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in November indicates that there is certain pressure to maintain positive profit growth for the whole year.

### Paul Chan Mo - po: Three - pronged Effort to Boost RMB Internationalization

Paul Chan Mo - po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said that Hong Kong will continue to consolidate and enhance its advantages in the financial market. This includes boosting the competitiveness of the stock market to attract more high - quality companies from Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Global South to list in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, efforts will be made to enrich the diversity of Hong Kong's financial market, such as accelerating the development of the fixed - income and money markets, green finance, fintech, and actively exploring new opportunities in bulk commodity trading and international gold trading. As a hub for offshore RMB business, Hong Kong will push forward the steady and prudent internationalization of the RMB from three aspects: improving offshore RMB liquidity, optimizing relevant financial infrastructure, and enriching investment products and risk management tools.

### Kremlin: Both Russian and U.S. Presidents Oppose Ceasefire Pretexted on Referendum

On December 28, Yury Ushakov, Assistant to the Russian President, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump that day. Both sides believed that a temporary ceasefire under the pretext of a referendum would only prolong the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Quoting Ushakov, Russia Today reported that the call lasted about 1 hour and 15 minutes and was conducted in a friendly and pragmatic atmosphere. Trump emphasized the need to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.

### Trump: Russia and Ukraine Want to End Conflict; U.S. - Ukraine Security Agreement to Be Reached

On December 28, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Mar - a - Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, to discuss the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan". Trump said that both Russia and Ukraine intend to end the conflict, and the United States and Ukraine will reach a security agreement.

### CME Group to Raise Performance Margins for Metal Futures

CME Group, a major global derivatives exchange, issued a significant margin adjustment notice on December 26. It announced that it will comprehensively raise the performance margins for futures contracts of metals including gold, silver and lithium after the close on Monday, December 29. Market participants believe that this move reflects the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility in the current precious metals market. The notice said that to cope with market volatility and ensure adequate collateral coverage, the performance margins for various metal futures and their corresponding Trade at Settlement (TAS) contracts, including standard, mini and micro - sized ones covering core metal trading products of CME Group, will be increased after the close on December 29, 2025.

### Silver Price Soars; Elon Musk Voices Concern

As silver prices soared close to $80 per ounce, Elon Musk bluntly stated that this is not good for industrial development. Affected by the global structural deficit, a sharp drop in inventory and the disconnect between paper trading and physical markets, silver is facing a supply squeeze. Since silver is irreplaceable in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, the supply bottleneck is posing severe challenges to the modern industrial chain.

### Crypto Investors Sell More as Prices Fall to Offset Taxes

Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in U.S. stocks and the correction of Bitcoin this year, U.S. investors are seizing the year - end window to sell crypto assets to offset taxes. Unlike U.S. stocks, spot crypto assets are not subject to the wash - sale rule, allowing investors to sell loss - making Bitcoin to offset taxes on stock gains. This practice of "selling more as prices fall" has surged at the end of the year and become a key strategy for investors to cope with market differentiation and reduce tax bills.

### Kweichow Moutai to Abandon Distribution Model Next Year

Kweichow Moutai will no longer adopt the distribution model next year. The new chairman of Moutai said that the company will not do anything that violates market laws, nor will it let channel partners suffer losses. He also stated that Moutai will adjust its product launch plan in 2026 by appropriately reducing the supply of high - value - added products, promote market - oriented pricing reform to respect market rules and consumer choices, and keep product prices in line with market conditions.

### Xiaomi Co - founder Lin Bin Plans $2 Billion Share Sale

Xiaomi Group announced that its co - founder, Executive Director and Vice Chairman Lin Bin plans to reduce his holdings of the company's Class B common shares by no more than $2 billion. The share reduction will be carried out in installments, with no more than $500 million worth of shares to be sold every 12 months starting from December 2026. Lin Bin said he is fully confident in the group's business prospects and will serve the group for a long time. The proceeds from the share reduction will mainly be used to set up an investment fund company.

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## Review and Outlook

### Top 10 Global Business Events of 2025

The global business landscape was reshaped by AI in 2025. OpenAI, though unlisted, drove fluctuations in trillions of dollars in market value through orders and narratives, becoming a "shadow giant" in the capital market. NVIDIA's market value soared to $5 trillion. Google launched a frontal assault to gain pricing power in the AI sector. Warren Buffett stepped down, Elon Musk pushed the aerospace industry towards industrialization, and Europe took drastic measures to phase out fuel - powered vehicles. The year was marked by high - stakes bets, reversals, and collisions between old and new orders, which are reshaping the trends of technology, capital and the era.

### Ed Yardeni’s 2026 Outlook

Ed Yardeni opined that the world is in the "Roaring 2020s". Economic resilience and the productivity leap driven by AI are expected to push the S&P 500 to 7,700 points in 2026 and potentially to 10,000 points by the end of the decade. The investment focus will shift from AI producers to the "493 user companies" that can benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvement. U.S. Treasury yields will remain above 4%, and the price of gold is expected to reach $10,000 per ounce in the long run.

### New Investment Themes for 2026

Guojin Securities holds that new investment themes have emerged for 2026. Under the pattern where investment outpaces consumption, the physical consumption in the manufacturing links of various industrial chains is increasing, the trading range of bulk commodities is expanding, and China's manufacturing advantages are gradually emerging, which has been first reflected in the foreign exchange market. It is recommended to pay attention to industrial resource products that benefit from the resonance between AI investment and the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, China's equipment export chain that has global comparative advantages and has confirmed the bottom of the cycle, and domestic manufacturing sectors that are experiencing a bottom reversal.

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## Domestic Macroeconomy

### Net Inflow of Nearly 50 Billion Yuan into CSI 500 ETFs in 4 Trading Days

Lin Rongxiong, an analyst at Guotou Securities, pointed out in a recent research report that CSI 500 ETFs are expected to be included as underlying assets for ETF options. This has spurred fund companies to step up their layout and promotion efforts, accelerating capital inflows. There is a fierce competition among leading fund companies such as Hua Tai柏瑞, Southern Fund and China Asset Management for market leadership, while smaller - scale products are facing shrinking size, indicating a significant polarization in the industry.

### Shenwan Hongyuan: Spring Thematic Market off to a Good Start

Shenwan Hongyuan holds that concerns about potential volatility in CSI 500 ETFs in early 2026 due to year - end scale expansion will not undermine the favorable conditions for the spring thematic market. In spring, there will be Alpha opportunities in the technology and pro - cyclical sectors, with active thematic investment and small - cap growth stocks taking the lead. In the second quarter of 2026, during the market bottoming - out phase, technology and advanced manufacturing sectors with fundamental Alpha logic may start to rally ahead of the overall bull market. In the second half of 2026, a full - fledged bull market is expected, where pro - cyclical sectors may trigger the bull market, but technology and advanced manufacturing sectors will ultimately dominate.

### Stock and Bond Performance During Past 5 PPI Upturn Cycles

Guosheng Securities stated that A - shares generally showed an upward trend during the past 5 PPI upturn cycles. Looking ahead to 2026, a sixth round of PPI increase is expected. Growth stocks are likely to remain the main investment focus in the stock market, but investment opportunities in the consumer and cyclical sectors should not be overlooked. For the bond market, monetary easing will remain the main policy direction. Although the decline in PPI will narrow in 2026, it will be difficult to turn positive significantly. Bond yields are expected to fluctuate moderately, with little possibility of a sharp correction.

# Domestic Companies & Industries

### LiFePO4 Makers Jointly Prop Up Prices

From December 25 to 26, four leading lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) enterprises—Hunan Yuneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology—successively announced maintenance and production cut plans, which will be concentrated in January 2026 for a one - month period. These four companies account for approximately 50% of the LiFePO4 market share. Among them, the three enterprises that have disclosed their production reduction quotas are expected to cut output by 35% - 50% in January. Their collective production cuts are projected to have a significant impact on the supply - demand dynamics in January.

### Wind Power Takes the Lead in Breaking Free from Involution

Since November 2024, the winning bid prices for Chinese wind turbines (excluding towers) have not fallen below 1,400 yuan/kW, which is the cost threshold for most wind turbines. Wind power and photovoltaic power are often mentioned in the same breath. While the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is still mired in losses and price wars, why has the wind power manufacturing industry taken the lead in escaping the trap of involution?

### Energy Storage Involution Has Begun, with Potential for Greater Ferocity Than Photovoltaics

The energy storage industry chain is extremely long, extending from spodumene and lithium carbonate to energy storage power stations, with a portion of the downstream market being diverted by power batteries. This is far longer than the rigid photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain. A longer industrial chain provides more links to absorb shocks, thereby enhancing its resilience. Meanwhile, the focus of the energy storage industry lies not in the upstream but in the mid - stream battery cells. Vertically integrated giants led by CATL hold a much larger market share than leading polysilicon enterprises and exert significant influence over both upstream and downstream sectors. If CATL is unwilling to engage in irrational competition, the energy storage industry will not fall into the quagmire of involution.

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# Overseas Macroeconomy

### Is AI Now at the "1998" Stage Compared with the Dot - com Bubble?

Guosen Securities compares the current AI wave to the late stage of the dot - com bubble in early 1998, arguing that it is now at the end of the "1→N" phase. During this period, revenue is growing rapidly but the growth rate is slowing down at the margin, and the valuation premium is only one - third of the peak level back then. It is predicted that a moderate correction will occur by mid - 2026, followed by a more bubble - like acceleration phase of "N→N+". However, unlike in 1998, this round of tech stocks is supported by stronger profitability.

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# Overseas Companies

### Oracle's Stock Plunges 30% in a Single Quarter; Analysts: "May Fail to Fulfill Obligations Without Adjusting OpenAI Agreement"

Oracle's stock price is on track to record its biggest drop since the dot - com bubble in the fourth quarter. Despite securing over $300 billion in orders from OpenAI, concerns have been raised about its aggressive expansion plans. Analysts warn that its investment - grade credit rating is at risk, and its over - reliance on OpenAI as a single customer poses significant dangers. Nevertheless, some investors remain optimistic about founder Larry Ellison's long - term vision.

### NVIDIA's $140 Billion "Acquisition": Is the GPU Turning Point Here?

Groq has established comprehensive competitive advantages over NVIDIA GPUs in core aspects such as inference speed, throughput efficiency, and cost optimization, thanks to its reconfigurable data flow architecture for "high - end TPUs". This is likely the core reason why NVIDIA is eager to acquire Groq's assets.

### Notion CEO on AI Transformation: The Era of "Infinite Intelligence" Has Arrived

"Every era is shaped by its 'wonder material'—steel forged the Gilded Age, semiconductors ushered in the digital age, and now, AI has arrived in the form of 'infinite intelligence'." AI is not merely a tool upgrade; it is a wonder material on par with historical game - changers like steel and steam.

### U.S. Humanoid Robot Startups: Even We Think the Hype Is Excessive

Although the humanoid robot sector has attracted approximately $5 billion in investment this year, executives from several U.S. startups, including Agility Robotics and Weave Robotics, have warned that the market is over - hyped. Industry insiders point out that current technologies are not advanced enough to support complex applications such as robot butlers, which are unable to handle sophisticated industrial or household services. Additionally, the deployment cost is exorbitant—only $20 out of every $100 invested is allocated to the robot itself.

### To Prioritize Power Supply for AI Data Centers, Trump Seeks to Seize U.S. Grid Regulatory Power

The Trump administration intends to transfer grid control from the states to the federal government, aiming to accelerate the integration of AI data centers into the grid through unified regulation. This move has triggered strong opposition from state regulators, who argue that it violates the Federal Power Act and infringes on their jurisdiction. Despite facing the risk of legal challenges and doubts about potential increases in residential electricity prices, the White House insists on centralizing power to remove energy barriers and ensure the United States maintains its leading position in the technological competition.

### NVIDIA's 800V Voltage "Revolution": Global Data Centers Face Unprecedented Infrastructure Overhaul

NVIDIA is spearheading the transition of data centers to an 800V DC architecture to support the AI computing power demand of 1MW per cabinet by 2027. Goldman Sachs states that the focus of capital expenditure will be restructured, with liquid cooling and DC power distribution becoming the mainstream, and the industry chain will undergo a major reshuffle. Although the total cost of ownership (TCO) is expected to decrease by approximately 30% in the long run, the short - term investment threshold is high. The first round of hardware upgrade cycles has already started, and a critical turning point may be reached around 2027.

Unable to Afford 7 - Year Grid Connection Wait, Data Centers Purchase "Aero - Engines" for Power Generation

Frustrated by the 7 - year wait for grid connection, tech giants are turning to aero - engines and diesel generators for emergency power supply. Orders for GE Vernova have surged by one - third.

On December 26, the inaugural meeting of the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Humanoid Robots and Embodied Intelligence was held in Beijing. Establishing this committee is a crucial step in advancing the maturation and application of humanoid robot and embodied intelligence technologies. The committee is primarily responsible for formulating and revising industry standards in areas such as basic commonalities, key technologies, components, complete machines and systems, applications, and safety of humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, with its secretariat located at the Chinese Institute of Electronics.

**Commentary**: According to China Securities Journal, humanoid robots have made rapid progress in motion control in 2025. As the industry enters a period of rapid development, the impact of motion control on the market will gradually diminish. It is expected that the market will place greater emphasis on actual mass - production capabilities in 2026. Regarding the challenges of mass production, Oriental Securities identifies brain models as one of the most critical hurdles. To drive the rapid evolution of these brain models, faster mass production is anticipated in the first half of 2026, and component enterprises with excellent manufacturing and management capabilities will stand to benefit the most.

### 4. Super Node

According to Global Times, the MindSpore AI Framework Summit was recently held at the Hangzhou International Expo Center. With the theme of "MindSpore: An AI Framework Built for SuperPods", the summit was hosted by the MindSpore open - source community and the Global Computing Consortium (GCC), and co - organized by Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. and OSCHINA. At the summit, MindSpore focused on super node technological innovation, built the MindSpore HyperParallel architecture, accelerated the innovation of new model structures and new training - inference paradigms, and led the AI framework into the "Super Node Era".

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal notes that SuperPod technology is a core innovative direction for AI computing infrastructure. Through system - level architectural restructuring, it breaks through the performance and efficiency bottlenecks of traditional clusters. By leveraging system - level Scale Up architecture, high - speed interconnection innovations, and software - hardware collaborative optimization, SuperPod technology has emerged as a new engine for AI computing power breakthroughs. Its core value lies in supporting the training and inference of trillion - parameter models with higher energy efficiency and lower latency, propelling AI from the era of thousands of GPUs to tens of thousands of GPUs. In the future, as technologies such as optical interconnection and liquid cooling mature, SuperPods will further reduce computing costs and accelerate the intelligent transformation of industries.

### 5. Nuclear Medicine

According to China Daily, on December 27, CNNC held the Nuclear Technology Medical Translation and Clinical Application Conference in Suzhou. In conjunction with the Suzhou Municipal Government, CNNC announced the official commissioning of the second phase of the Huguan Campus of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University (General Hospital of the Nuclear Industry), China's first nuclear medicine demonstration base. The second phase of the Huguan Campus integrates functions such as precise nuclear technology diagnosis and treatment, clinical trials, medical innovation, and training and exchange, focusing on key areas including nuclear medicine, cancer treatment, and chronic disease prevention and control.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal points out that the nuclear medicine industry is being driven by both policy dividends and technological breakthroughs. With China's independent breakthroughs in radionuclide preparation, radiopharmaceutical research and development, and nuclear medical equipment, the nuclear medicine industry is poised for accelerated growth. The Chinese nuclear medicine market is expected to maintain rapid expansion from 2025 to 2030, with an annual output value projected to reach approximately 600 billion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan period.

### 6. Huawei Industry Chain

According to Securities Times, on December 26, Wang Jian, CEO of Huawei Korea, announced at the "Huawei Day 2025" press conference that Huawei will launch its latest AI chip, the Ascend 950, in the South Korean market in 2026, along with AI computing cards and comprehensive data center solutions. This move marks Huawei's official challenge to NVIDIA's monopoly in the South Korean AI chip market, offering South Korean enterprises a "second option besides NVIDIA".

**Commentary**: Securities Times states that Huawei's promotion of HarmonyOS in South Korea will focus on smart home devices and AI infrastructure, aiming to provide local enterprises with more technological choices and assist them in building an efficient intelligent ecosystem. Huawei has made it clear that it will not apply HarmonyOS to smartphones in 2026. As a major hub for AI chips, South Korea's market entry by Huawei may stimulate the diversification of the local supply chain and impact the global AI competitive landscape. Additionally, it highlights the evolutionary path of operating systems expanding from smartphones to the Internet of Things (IoT), helping brands explore new growth drivers amid the sanctions environment. Currently, the global HarmonyOS ecosystem encompasses over 32 million devices, a figure that has grown thanks to the open - source model and is expected to further expand into smart home and enterprise - level scenarios in South Korea.

## Today's News Preview

- Guotou Silver LOF: The monthly fixed - investment limit for Class A shares has been lowered back to 100 yuan, and subscriptions for Class C shares will be suspended, effective from December 29.

- U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending December 19.

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is inherently risky, and investment decisions should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users are advised to assess whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions contained herein are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this article shall be the sole responsibility of the investor.