Morning News

# Market Overview

Source: Wall Street见闻 (Wall Street CN)

## Market Overview

Trump hinted that the U.S.-Iran conflict may end soon, triggering a sharp plunge in crude oil prices, an accelerated rebound in U.S. stocks, a fresh intraday high in U.S. Treasury prices, and a reversal to weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The three major U.S. stock indexes reversed two consecutive days of losses, with the Nasdaq closing up more than 1%; the chip stock index surged nearly 4%, outperforming the broader market. Western Digital rose over 10%, AMD jumped more than 5%, and Nvidia climbed nearly 3%, leading the gains among the Magnificent Seven tech giants. Hims & Hers soared more than 40% following reports that it reached a weight-loss drug sales agreement with Novo Nordisk.

Trump stated that the Iran conflict is "essentially over." Crude oil, which had approached $120 during Asian trading hours, turned lower during U.S. stock trading. U.S. oil, which had risen over 30% intraday, briefly plunged more than 10%. U.S. Treasury yields hit fresh intraday lows, with the 10-year yield falling more than 10 basis points from its session high. The U.S. Dollar Index, which had hit a three-month high intraday, reversed lower and touched a fresh session low. The offshore yuan turned higher, briefly reclaiming the 6.90 level and rising more than 400 pips from its intraday low.

Base metals were mixed. Gold retreated, with spot gold falling as much as 3% before paring most losses. Silver turned higher intraday; spot silver, which had dropped nearly 6%, later rose more than 2%. LME tin gained over 1% for a second straight session. LME copper rebounded from a two-week low. LME aluminum fell nearly 3%, retreating from a nearly four-year high.

During Asian trading hours, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened lower but moved higher. "Lobster" concept stocks exploded, while oil and gas stocks narrowed their gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index neared positive territory, and large language model stock MINIMAX surged more than 23%.

## Key News

### China

China's February CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace in nearly three years. The PPI decline continued to narrow to 0.9% year-on-year.

Tech giants are joining the fray. Following Alibaba and ByteDance, Tencent has launched its own "Little Lobster" product, pioneering "WeChat Direct Connect."

CATL's Q4 revenue increased 36.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged 57.1%, the largest increase in two and a half years. The company proposed a full-year dividend of 31.5 billion yuan.

### Overseas

Trump said U.S. military operations against Iran will end "soon" but "not this week," and will lift some sanctions to cool international oil prices.

After the G7 meeting, members stated they will not release oil reserves for now but are "ready to take necessary measures" to support global energy supply. Reports: The U.S. supports the G7 releasing 300-400 million barrels of oil reserves.

Middle East "production halt" data: Output has been cut by 2 million barrels per day, and will exceed 4 million barrels per day by Friday. Reports: Storage space is under pressure, and Saudi Arabia has begun cutting oil production. Saudi Arabia is offering crude oil in the spot market for the first time in years, with 4.6 million barrels listed. Qatar has delayed its LNG expansion plan to 2027, adding further uncertainty to global natural gas supplies.

Iran warned oil prices could surge above $200 and remain in triple digits for an extended period. Reports: A "major first rift" has emerged between the U.S. and Israel, with Washington dissatisfied with Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities.

Asia's energy defense campaign has escalated, with countries releasing oil reserves, canceling fuel tariffs, and setting oil price caps.

Jensen Huang urged DRAM manufacturers to expand production: "We'll buy as much as you can make." Samsung and SK Hynix have been selected as suppliers of Nvidia's Rubin HBM4, with shipments expected to begin in March.

New Lobster release: OpenClaw 3.8 is here.

## Market Closing Quotes

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: +0.83% to 6,795.99

- Dow Jones: +0.50% to 47,740.80

- Nasdaq: +1.38% to 22,695.946

- Europe STOXX 600: -0.63% to 594.92

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite: -0.67% to 4,096.60

- Shenzhen Component: -0.74% to 14,067.50

- ChiNext Index: -0.64% to 3,208.58

### Bond Market

By the close of bond trading:

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.10%, down ~4 bps on the day

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: ~3.54%, down ~2 bps on the day

### Commodities

- WTI Crude (April): +4.26% to $94.77/bbl

- Brent Crude (May): +6.76% to $98.96/bbl

- COMEX Gold (April): -1.07% to $5,103.7/oz

- COMEX Silver (May): +0.25% to $84.523/oz

- LME Copper: +~0.7% to $12,954/mt

- LME Tin: +~1.2% to $50,685/mt

- LME Aluminum: -~1.7% to $3,386/mt

# Detailed News

## Global Highlights

### China

China's February CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace in nearly three years, while the PPI decline narrowed further to 0.9% year-on-year. The month-on-month CPI increase accelerated from 0.2% to 1%, the highest in two years, mainly driven by concentrated consumption demand during the extended Spring Festival holiday, which significantly lifted service prices. February PPI remained flat month-on-month versus January, with the year-on-year decline narrowing. Key drivers included rising international non-ferrous metal and crude oil prices boosting domestic related sectors, and growing computing power demand lifting prices in some industries.

According to Tao Chuan's team at Guolian MinSheng Securities, both February CPI and PPI beat expectations. The CPI surge was led by the "longest Spring Festival in history" spurring concentrated service consumption, combined with consumption-boosting policies and rising international oil and gold prices, pushing core CPI month-on-month growth to a record high. The PPI decline narrowed to -0.9%, aided by international oil price pass-through and effective "anti-involution" policies that improved bargaining power in mid-to-downstream industries. With stabilizing demand and optimized supply, PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2, and the GDP deflator has already signaled a rebound.

Tech giants are joining the fray. Following Alibaba and ByteDance, Tencent has launched its own "Little Lobster"! The AI Agent battle has shifted from technological competition to "who can make AI truly usable for ordinary people."

Can you raise a "Lobster" on WeChat? Tencent rolled out three lobster products in one day, with the final move being particularly aggressive. Tencent launched its blockbuster AI product **QClaw**, pioneering the "WeChat Direct Connect" feature. Simply send a message on WeChat, and the AI can remotely control your computer to automatically generate reports, write code, and post tweets. It offers zero-threshold deployment with full data localization. This is not only a disruptive office tool but also marks WeChat's evolution into an all-powerful "super interface."

Can a 20,000 RMB monthly salary afford a "Lobster"? Behind OpenClaw's viral success, costs are often underestimated. Beyond hardware, model API calls represent the largest long-term expense. A complete task can consume tens of thousands of **tokens**, with some users incurring over 1,000 RMB in charges within six hours. Coupled with security risks, configuration barriers, and "training" investments, Lobster is far from an affordable, out-of-the-box tool.

**CATL** reported Q4 revenue up 36.6% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders surged 57.1% YoY, the largest increase in two and a half years. The company proposed a full-year dividend of 31.5 billion RMB. In Q4 2025, CATL's net profit reached 23.167 billion RMB, up 57.1% YoY. Full-year revenue hit 423.7 billion RMB, with net profit of 72.2 billion RMB, where profit growth significantly outpaced revenue. Q4 global power battery market share rose to 43%, with installations up 30% YoY. The company ranked first globally in energy storage battery sales. R&D investment totaled 22.1 billion RMB, with leading technologies including the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery. The full-year cash dividend is approximately 31.5 billion RMB, representing a 44% payout ratio.

The Middle East conflict has triggered a surge in China's wind power orders. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have heightened Europe's strategic anxiety over energy security. As Europe's domestic supply chains struggle to meet urgent demand, even facing the dilemma of core suppliers terminating contracts, China's wind power equipment chain—with its advantages in cost, scale, and delivery certainty—has emerged as a "replacement" in this energy restructuring.

### Overseas

Trump claims the Iran conflict is "essentially over," with U.S. crude oil plunging sharply from intraday highs. Trump stated that the U.S. war against Iran may end soon, "progressing much faster" than his initial 4-5 week timeline. "I think this war is essentially over, pretty much done. Iran has no navy, no communications system, and no air force."

Trump described the military operation against Iran as a "short-term action." In collaboration with Israel, the U.S. is conducting military operations, and Iran's drone and missile capabilities are being "completely destroyed." He added that the U.S. and its allies will continue military operations until the enemy is "completely defeated."

During a press conference, Trump said U.S. military operations against Iran will end "soon," and some sanctions will be lifted to cool international oil prices.

Reports: A "major first rift" has emerged between the U.S. and Israel, with Washington dissatisfied with Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities. Citing U.S. media reports, Xinhua News Agency stated that the U.S. is unhappy with the IDF's strikes on Iranian fuel storage facilities, deeming the scale "far beyond U.S. expectations" and likely to have counterproductive effects such as pushing oil prices higher. Reports citing U.S. and Israeli officials noted that images of burning fuel storage facilities could disrupt oil markets and further drive up energy prices.

Bank of America's Hartnett: To win the midterm elections, Trump must "de-escalate" the U.S.-Iran conflict in March. Rising oil prices have pushed Trump's economic approval rating to 40% and inflation approval rating to 36%, lows that may force him to cool the conflict in March. Investors should sell at the $90/bbl level.

Qatar delays LNG expansion to 2027, adding uncertainty to global gas supplies. Following an unprecedented shutdown of the Ras Laffan plant due to Iranian drone attacks, QatarEnergy has postponed the start-up of the North Field East expansion project to after 2027. With a designed annual capacity of 32 million tonnes, this project is a key component of global LNG supply growth this decade. If the shutdown lasts less than a month, first exports could begin early next year; prolonged shutdowns due to escalating tensions would further delay production. The expected market surplus will be correspondingly pushed back, requiring a reassessment of global supply-demand balance.

Qatar's LNG shutdown shocks global supply; Morgan Stanley: 2026 gas surplus may be "wiped out." Morgan Stanley warned that the shutdown will eliminate most of the expected 2026 supply surplus. A shutdown exceeding one month would push the market into deficit, with LNG prices potentially surging above $30/MMBtu. The bank also delayed its forecast for the first cargo from Qatar's North Field expansion to Q1 2027, cutting an additional ~1 million tonnes from this year's supply outlook.

Goldman Sachs: Qatar's LNG supply disruption exceeds expectations; exports may "drop to zero" until late March, with full recovery in May. Goldman Sachs warned that the Middle East conflict will halt Qatar's LNG exports until late March, followed by a gradual ramp-up in April, with full recovery to the normal 79 mtpa level only in May. In response, Goldman Sachs sharply raised its Q2 TTF price forecast from 45 to 63 euros/MWh and JKM from 16 to 23 USD/MMBtu. While the U.S. market remains insulated, Europe and Asia will face fierce competition for gas supplies, with signs of weakened industrial demand emerging in some Asian emerging economies.

Asia's energy defense campaign escalates: releasing oil reserves, canceling fuel tariffs, and setting price caps. Surging oil prices amid the Middle East conflict have prompted multiple Asian economies to rapidly launch emergency energy measures. Vietnam has cut taxes and liberalized markets to secure supplies; South Korea has reinstated oil price caps for the first time in 30 years; Japan is preparing to release strategic reserves; and Bangladesh is curbing demand by closing universities and restricting fuel sales. If high oil prices persist, the sustainability of government subsidy gaps will become the most critical risk variable in this crisis.

Jensen Huang urges DRAM makers to expand production: "We'll buy as much as you can make." Speaking at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference, Huang stated that Nvidia will absorb all DRAM production capacity. With Nvidia's next-gen Vera Rubin platform adopting the more complex HBM4 specification, memory consumption has doubled, and expansion by the three major DRAM makers still struggles to meet demand.

Samsung and SK Hynix selected as Nvidia's Rubin HBM4 suppliers, with shipments expected to start in March. The memory battle for Nvidia's next-gen AI flagship Vera Rubin has begun—Samsung and SK Hynix have both been selected as HBM4 suppliers, with mass production starting as early as this month. Technically, Nvidia requires a 10Gb/s transfer rate, 25% above industry standards. Samsung has taken the lead by passing dual certification, while SK Hynix is catching up.

New Lobster release: **OpenClaw 3.8** is here. OpenClaw's update speed is staggering, with version 3.8-beta.1 launched the day after 3.7. This update focuses on five areas: adding local backup and verification mechanisms for data security; optimizing Talk voice mode for silent waiting configuration; expanding model compatibility to millions of tokens and enhancing Brave Search; optimizing performance for macOS and Android; and comprehensively strengthening security in script execution and SSRF protection.

## Selected Research Reports

An entire "AI hardware" ecosystem is growing on OpenClaw. The OpenClaw craze is spawning a hardware ecosystem. From Rokid glasses and Guangfan Technology's earphones/watches to Vita Power's robotic dogs, various devices are actively integrating with OpenClaw. In this architecture, OpenClaw acts as the AI operating system, responsible for understanding and planning, while hardware serves as sensory and execution organs. The open-source community further accelerates ecosystem growth, with developers embedding OpenClaw into low-cost devices, transforming hardware from passive tools into active partners.

Carriages, energy-saving lamps, and "slow living": Every energy crisis in history has forced a "mandatory upgrade" of human lifestyles. True technological breakthroughs are often driven not by energy abundance, but by scarcity.

a16z latest interview: It's premature to declare SaaS dead; the biggest bottleneck for AI adoption is no longer model intelligence. In an interview with Atlassian's CEO, a16z stated that AI is not the terminator of SaaS but a catalyst for industry differentiation. Software handling complex real-world business processes will not disappear; instead, AI will empower them with tremendous growth. The biggest current bottleneck for AI adoption is human trust in AI. Future software competition will hinge not only on model capabilities but also on barriers in business logic and pricing psychology.

# Domestic Companies

Driven by the "Lobster" boom, MiniMax saw its annualized recurring revenue (ARR) surge by 50% in the first two months of the year, while token usage of its M2 model jumped sixfold. According to Morgan Stanley, boosted by the "Lobster Effect" (the OpenClaw ecosystem), MiniMax’s commercialization has accelerated beyond expectations. Its ARR soared from $100 million to $150 million in just two months, an increase of over 50%. Token usage of the M2 model in February skyrocketed six times compared with December, while the inference cost per token dropped by more than 50% at the same time. The upcoming M3 model targets top-tier global capabilities and is expected to deliver a higher gross margin.

Flush posted a 44% year-on-year rise in revenue to CNY 6.029 billion in 2025, with net profit surging 76%, and the fourth quarter contributing over 60% of the full-year profit. Flush’s 2025 results greatly exceeded expectations: full-year revenue reached CNY 6.029 billion, up 44.00% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was CNY 3.205 billion, up 75.79% year-on-year.

Amid the recovery of the A-share market, growth was driven by both institutional and retail clients. The company recorded quarterly revenue of CNY 2.768 billion in Q4, accounting for about 46% of the full-year total; net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was CNY 1.999 billion, roughly 62% of the annual figure.

# Overseas Macro

Inflation fears reignite, and markets have fully priced in two ECB rate hikes this year. Surging energy prices have stoked inflation concerns. Interest rate swap markets now price in two 25-bp rate hikes by the ECB in 2025, with the first increase as early as June. Only last week, markets expected just one hike. Money markets price in a 15-bp rate increase by the Bank of England this year, in sharp contrast to expectations of two 25-bp cuts before the U.S.-Iran conflict.

# Overseas Companies

The competitive landscape of AI platforms is quietly shifting: Claude’s monthly traffic soared 63%, but Google’s moat remains deep.

On the web: Claude ranked first with a 63% month-on-month increase in February thanks to model upgrades, followed by ChatGPT at 7% and Gemini at 17%.

On mobile: Claude rose 54% month-on-month, ChatGPT 4%, and Gemini 12%.

Bank of America believes that AI is driving the expansion of complex search demand, putting Alphabet in a strong competitive position.

At the JPMorgan Korea Conference, SK Hynix stated that the memory upcycle is expected to last longer than anticipated. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating on SK Hynix with a target price of KRW 125,000, implying an upside of 35% from current levels.

Management sent multiple strong, rare signals at the conference: a severe supply-demand gap, low channel inventories, robust growth in both shipments and output bits, and an upcycle that will last longer than expected. Meanwhile, multi-year long-term agreements (LTAs) are becoming key to locking in revenue certainty.

Apple raises foldable iPhone production by 20%, benefiting TSMC and Foxconn with more orders.

Apple has increased supply chain inventory for its first foldable phone by about 20% from the original target. Key components are expected to ship from late Q2 to Q3 this year, with an official launch scheduled before the end of the year. The new device features a unique liquid metal hinge and is positioned for the high-end market at $2,000.

Optical communications firm Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) announced its first 1.6T transceiver order from a hyperscale customer, sending its stock up 15%.

AOI said it received the first mass-production order for 1.6T data center optical transceivers from a major long-term hyperscale customer, worth over $200 million, marking the official start of large-scale commercial use for 1.6T products. Shipments are set to begin in Q3 2026 and be completed in Q4.

The company is simultaneously expanding production at its factories in Taiwan, China, and Texas, USA, aiming for a combined monthly capacity of over 500,000 units for 800G/1.6T products by the end of the year.

# Industries & Concepts

## 1. Analog Chips

According to multiple industry websites, Texas Instruments (TI), the global analog chip giant, is expected to implement its second comprehensive price increase starting April 1.

The price hike could reach 15%–85% and may cover all customers, affecting core products including digital isolators, isolated driver chips, and power management ICs.

Previously, TI had carried out targeted price adjustments of 10%–30% in key sectors such as industrial control and automotive electronics.

**Comment**: Industry insiders believe the price increase is driven by both cost and demand. On the cost side, 8-inch wafer foundry, packaging and testing, and raw material prices are rising. On the demand side, demand from AI servers, new energy vehicles, and other fields continues to surge.

Meanwhile, shrinking 8-inch wafer capacity combined with low industry inventories has led to a supply-demand imbalance.

The 2026 semiconductor price surge shows no signs of cooling; instead, it is intensifying and quickly sweeping across the entire industrial chain.

Under the dual pressure of the AI supercycle and high upstream metal costs, price signals are emerging intensively across core devices (memory chips, MCUs), wafer foundry, packaging and testing services, passive components, and connectors.

Analysts believe that post-inventory industrial recovery coupled with AI-driven demand has made price increases a trend in the global analog chip sector. Moves by top suppliers such as TI are expected to trigger chain reactions in market prices among partners, end-users, and distributors.

## 2. Computing Power

According to the latest monitoring data from OpenRouter, in the past week (March 2–8), the weekly total token usage of Chinese large models reached 4.19 trillion tokens, a sharp increase of 34.9% from the previous week. By comparison, U.S. large models recorded 3.63 trillion tokens, down 8.5% month-on-week.

For the second consecutive week, the token usage volume of Chinese large models has surpassed that of the U.S.

**Comment**: Analysts note that Chinese model usage has accelerated continuously over the past four weeks, while U.S. models have fluctuated and declined, marking a major inflection point in Sino-U.S. large model token consumption.

Among the top 5 models by platform usage, four are from China: MiniMax M2.5, Kimi K2.5, Zhipu GLM-5, and DeepSeek V3.2, together accounting for 85.72% of total usage among the top five.

The core drivers of the sharp rise in usage are the low inference cost and high cost-performance ratio of Chinese large models.

A new generation of Chinese models represented by MiniMax M2.5 and Kimi K2.5 have reached the level of top Western models in mainstream productivity scenarios such as coding, AI agents, and long-context understanding, and have even achieved partial substitution and spillover effects.

The boom in agents, tool calls, and other applications has greatly lifted the token consumption curve, with applications such as OpenClaw driving high-slope growth in token demand.

Analysts believe that "token demand inflation" is expected to become a core theme for AI investment this year.

The rapid rise in token usage is feeding into a high boom across China’s industrial chain including computing power, infrastructure, AI chips, and cloud services, significantly benefiting the performance of related sectors and firms, and strengthening Chinese vendors’ global pricing power and voice in AI services.

## 3. Cybersecurity

According to Global Times, the Cybersecurity Threat and Vulnerability Information Sharing Platform of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently detected that some instances of the open-source OpenClaw AI agent carry high security risks under default or improper configurations, which could easily lead to cyberattacks and information leaks.

Relevant organizations and users are advised to fully check public network exposure, permission configurations, and credential management when deploying OpenClaw, and improve security mechanisms such as identity authentication, access control, data encryption, and security auditing to prevent potential cybersecurity risks.

**Comment**: The industry widely agrees that AI security is a core prerequisite for the healthy and orderly development of AI technology.

The 2026 Government Work Report proposed for the first time to “build a new form of intelligent economy” and called for improved AI governance.

AI security has risen to become an important part of the holistic view of national security, standing alongside cybersecurity, data security, biosecurity, and ecological security as a focus in emerging-area national security capacity building.

It is projected that China’s enterprise AI agent security market will reach CNY 43.6 billion in 2026 and exceed CNY 80 billion by 2030. The global AI security market is expected to surpass $100 billion by 2030.

## 4. AI Programming

According to Sina Finance, sources revealed that just one week after the open beta launch of Huawei Cloud CodeArts, an AI coding agent, the number of participating users doubled and daily active users tripled.

Huawei Cloud is conducting extreme stress tests and further expanding Ascend computing power.

Starting this week, users will also be able to quickly install and deploy OpenClaw via CodeArts skills.

In addition, Huawei has applied to register the “Huawei Cloud CodeArts” trademark, signaling its continued investment in CodeArts and a long-term strategic layout and influence in the AI programming sector.

**Comment**: Analysts view CodeArts as an engineered AI coding agent integrating a large code model, IDE, and autonomous development framework.

As a major innovation in domestic AI programming, Huawei Cloud CodeArts, by deeply integrating Huawei’s 30-plus years of R&D practice and a 100-billion-level code repository, is reshaping the software development paradigm and propelling domestic AI programming tools to leap from “auxiliary tools” to “enterprise-level engineered deployment.”

IDC forecasts that China’s AI programming tool market will exceed CNY 180 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 67%.

As a benchmark product in the domestic AI programming sector, Huawei Cloud CodeArts is expected to capture a significant share in this fast-growing market.

## 5. Amino Acids

Evonik, a methionine giant, announced a global 10% price increase for its feed-grade DL-methionine on the evening of March 5.

Evonik’s methionine plant in Singapore heavily relies on feedstock methanol and sulfur sourced from the Middle East and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Evonik’s Singapore capacity accounts for about 12% of the global total, while its European home-base capacity makes up around 11%.

Price adjustments by overseas leading firms are expected to push market prices even higher.

**Comment**: Research institutions believe that vitamin and amino acid prices have been depressed in recent years, and companies have maintained low inventories to optimize cash flow and capital costs. Methionine and vitamin E are currently well-positioned in terms of supply and demand within the sector.

New capacity for methionine and VE will be delayed this year, so incremental industry supply is not a near-term concern. With high industry concentration and oligopolistic competition, price transmission will proceed smoothly.

# Today’s News Preview

- China’s import and export data

- Q4 GDP of Japan and South Korea

- U.S. existing home sales (February)

- U.S. Department of Commerce to host U.S. robotics manufacturing event

- Earnings reports from Oracle and NIO

- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

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# Risk Warning & Disclaimer

Markets are risky and investments require caution.

This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users.

Users should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this article fits their particular circumstances.

Any investment based on this article is at your own risk.