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Bitcoin has pulled back after hitting a new high of $111,800 as long-term holders began taking profits. Key support levels are at $103,700 and $95,600, and signs indicate long-term investors are selling, putting bulls to a severe test.  

### Key Points:  

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,800 but quickly fell back to $103,200. The initial rally appeared to be driven by the spot market, with major accumulation zones at $81,000–$85,000, $93,000–$96,000, and $102,000–$104,000 now serving as potential support levels.  

From a macro perspective, the CBD heatmap (Note: PANews: The CBD heatmap displays Cumulative Volume Delta data in a heatmap format) shows many historical accumulation zones have turned into selling areas. Sellers from the $25,000–$31,000, $38,000–$44,000, and $60,000–$73,000 ranges are putting pressure on price movements.  

Cost basis quantiles and short-term holder ranges indicate recent support near $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are important statistical indicators of broader shifts in market sentiment.  

Realized profits soared to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth major profit-taking event of this cycle. The sell-off is dominated by long-term holders rather than short-term traders.  

Groups holding for over one year have dominated recent selling, reflecting mature capital rotation. This aligns with previous observations from the CBD heatmap, confirming that senior investors are shaping the current top-formation phase.  

### Rally Ladder Chart  

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin continued its rally, hitting a new high of $111,800 and briefly surpassing the January 2025 high. However, the subsequent pullback to $103,200 suggests a potential pause in bullish momentum.  

To understand the internal structure of this rebound, the CBD heatmap can be used to track the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different price levels. Visually, it reveals spot-driven concentrated accumulation or selling zones, helping to identify the price ranges with the strongest demand.  

The heatmap shows the rebound was primarily spot-driven and rose in a stepwise manner, with obvious accumulation zones at $81k–$85k, $93k–$96k, and $102k–$104k. These areas may now become dense supply zones that could act as short-term support under the influence of overall market sentiment.  

Notably, the top buyers from Q1 this year have held on after the price dipped below $80,000 and are now being tested again as the price hovers near $110,000. This article will explore the fading momentum behind recent demand, factors weakening market strength, and potential support levels if the market continues to weaken.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure  

To understand what drove Bitcoin’s recent break above $111,000, it’s necessary to examine the broader market structure. By looking at the heatmap since the cycle low in June 2022, the distribution pattern of past accumulated holdings becomes clear.  

As prices rose, the dense supply zones that previously formed the basis for accumulation (often characterized by sideways consolidation) have now turned into active selling areas. Visually, the heatmap shows a gradual shift; areas that once supported the rally have become resistance as early holders took the opportunity to sell.  

The most significant selling pressure comes from groups that accumulated holdings in key historical ranges ($25k–$31k and $60k–$73k). Many in these groups have experienced multiple volatility phases and are now exacerbating oversupply, seemingly limiting Bitcoin’s further upside, at least in the short term.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Exploration of Price Discovery  

As long-term holders gradually apply selling pressure, the likelihood of a short-term pullback continues to increase, especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to push Bitcoin firmly above $111,800. In this phase of stalled bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become important tools for identifying potential support levels during pullbacks.  

One particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantile. This indicator analyzes the cost basis of tokens at specific times, divided into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of where supply initially entered the market, allowing identification of areas with higher turnover rates, which may be driven by profit-taking or loss realization.  

Here we focus on three key quantiles:  

- 0.95 (top 5%)  

- 0.85 (top 15%)  

- 0.75 (top 25%)  

Historical patterns over the past five years show that when prices are above the 0.95 quantile, it often signals absolute mania, while sideways bull market phases typically occur between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, sustained levels below 0.75 usually mark bear markets or risk-off periods.  

Currently, the 0.95 quantile is at approximately $103,700, serving as the first on-chain support level. If selling pressure persists, the next level to watch is the 0.85 quantile at $95,600, which could provide structural support or, if breached, confirm a broader risk reset.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

Over the past six months, driven by two new all-time highs, Bitcoin’s supply has changed hands significantly, making it increasingly important to track recent investor behavior. One of the most insightful models is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days.  

To refine the statistics, "standard deviation bands" are applied to this cost basis to define key support and resistance areas. These bands help quantify the range of market consensus among short-term participants and may signal trend exhaustion or breakout thresholds.  

Currently, the STH cost basis is $97,100, representing the average buy price for recent buyers. +1 standard deviation, often associated with overbought or bullish breakout conditions, is at $114,800, while -1 standard deviation at $83,200 signals rising downside risk.  

These three levels ($114,800, $97,100, and $83,200) now define the statistical boundaries of short-term market sentiment. Breaking above or below these thresholds is likely to determine the market’s next phase, indicating whether momentum is strengthening or weakening.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Profit Realization  

As Bitcoin retreated from its recent $111,800 high, most of the selling pressure appears to come from cycle-long senior holders—those who accumulated Bitcoin at the start of the rally and are now realizing substantial gains. At this stage, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing the risk of demand exhaustion.  

By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily profit realization (adjusted to exclude internal entity flows), daily realized profits peaked at $1.47 billion last week. This is a significant level, highlighting the intensity of recent capital rotation.  

More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that daily profit-taking has exceeded $1 billion. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb such large realized gains. This underscores the market’s resilience in the face of significant selling pressure.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Dynamic Shifts  

To better understand the significance of the current profit-taking wave, it is necessary to examine it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same, and the dynamics of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.  

One effective approach is to look at the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of market-cap-adjusted net realized profits. This adjustment allows for comparisons across cycles. A clear trend is that the enthusiasm for profit-taking has diminished over time, reflecting the general degradation of cyclical upside performance and reduced volatility as the market matures.  

- From November 2015 to April 2018, the net profit-taking phase lasted about 25 months, with peaks exceeding 0.4% of market cap.  

- In the 2020–2022 cycle, this phase lasted about 20 months, but peaks were only around 0.15%.  

- In the current cycle, starting in November 2023, the net profit-taking phase has lasted 18 months, forming two distinct peaks near 0.1%.  

This trend suggests that while profit-taking still exerts significant pressure, it has moderated, possibly indicating a shift from boom-and-bust mania to structural capital rotation in a more mature asset class.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Who Is Taking Profits?  

Another perspective for evaluating profit-taking cycles is to identify which investor groups are selling.  

Since the 2015–2018 cycle, the share of profits realized by long-term holders (LTHs) at market mania tops has steadily increased. This trend highlights a structural shift in market maturity, where more experienced investors dominate capital rotation rather than fast-in, fast-out speculators.  

During the recent peak, the 30-day moving average of realized profits for long-term holders (LTHs) soared to about $1 billion per day, while short-term holders (STHs) realized only $320 million per day—a gap of more than three times—further confirming that this round of profit-taking is dominated by longer-held, more committed investors.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

At first glance, the current $1 billion per day in realized profits for long-term holders (holding over six months) seems modest compared to the $1.8 billion peak in December 2024. However, a deeper analysis reveals a familiar pattern.  

In past bull markets, as the cycle progresses, investors holding for 6–12 months tend to contribute less to profit-taking. This dynamic is evident again in the current cycle. As the rally continues, more senior long-term holders are becoming the main sellers, which appears to be shaping the top-formation phase of this cycle.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

Therefore, excluding the 6–12-month holding group from the total realized profits of long-term holders provides a more accurate assessment of the true impact of senior investors on current market dynamics. This adjustment eliminates the influence of buyers who bought at the January 2025 high (with relatively limited unrealized gains) and focuses on investors holding for over a year with higher profit margins.  

When isolating the profits realized by investors holding for over a year, the significance of the current wave becomes more apparent. This group, typically associated with "坚定型" (committed) investors, is now taking profits on a large scale—a behavior often indicating that a bullish trend has matured or is nearing an end.  

This observation aligns with earlier findings from the heatmap, which also showed that recent selling pressure primarily comes from senior investors, further confirming that long-term holders are increasingly active in this top-formation phase.  

**Source:** Glassnode  

### Conclusion  

Bitcoin’s recent climb to a new all-time high of $111,800 has faced growing resistance, with market data showing early buyers are tiring and long-term holders are taking profits. The heatmap indicates that multiple strong accumulation zones have turned into active selling areas, particularly among investors who bought in the $25k–$73k range.  

On-chain pricing models such as cost basis quantiles and short-term holder statistical ranges now define the market’s immediate structure. If demand weakens, the key support levels at $103,700 and $95,600 will be critical, while the upper resistance range at $114,800 remains a test for a market rebound.  

The profit realization mechanism has also intensified, with daily profit peaks of $1.47 billion dominated by long-term holders. This trend, combined with the increasing proportion of profit-taking by holders of over one year, suggests we may be witnessing a distribution phase rather than a new breakout.  

Overall, the market appears to be at a crossroads, influenced by increased selling pressure, fading bullish momentum, and the need for demand to prove its resilience. The coming weeks will be crucial to determining whether this is a mid-term consolidation or the start of a broader top formation.  

**Disclaimer:** The views in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from its use or reliance.