HashKey trading moment: BTC is under pressure around $118,000, the market focuses on non-farm employment data tonight

1. Market Observation  

On Thursday local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order establishing "reciprocal" tariff rates covering goods from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Higher tariffs apply to countries without agreements, including 25% for India, 39% for Switzerland, and 30% for South Africa. Tariffs on Canadian goods were raised from 25% to 35%, with a 40% transit tax imposed on transshipped goods. The White House stated that the move aims to protect U.S. manufacturing and address trade imbalances.  

According to the latest data, the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and hitting a five-month high, indicating sustained inflationary pressures. However, the other side of the economy shows signs of weakness: consumer spending growth has slowed, real disposable income has flattened, limiting consumption willingness, and the household savings rate remains relatively cautious at 4.5%. Despite the FOMC keeping interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time this week, two governors notably voted in favor of a rate cut—a first in over three decades. Fed Chair Powell clarified after the meeting that the current resilient labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy, with the unemployment rate emerging as a core critical factor. With only 24 hours left in the "super 72-hour window," markets are holding their breath for tonight’s non-farm payroll data, which could be pivotal in determining the final direction of Powell’s policy. Currently, the probability of a September rate cut has dropped to a 50-50 split.  

Against a backdrop of positive regulatory developments, Hong Kong’s upcoming *Stablecoin Ordinance*, set to take effect in August, has also attracted significant attention. Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, noted that this move marks the formal integration of stablecoin technology into regulatory frameworks. Its clear structure and credibility are attracting numerous strong enterprises to apply for issuance licenses, signaling a shift from conceptual demonstrations to large-scale commercial deployment of related technologies. In response, HashKey is actively positioning itself to simultaneously enhance capabilities across trading, custody, clearing, and risk control, aiming to build infrastructure capable of efficiently handling cross-border capital flows and promoting deep integration between stablecoins and the real-world economy.  

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $115,000 this morning but has since rebounded above $115,500. Analyst Altcoin Sherpa pointed out that if Bitcoin loses the critical support level of $114,000, market conditions could deteriorate. TheBreakoutZone believes that if the current descending channel is breached, the next high-risk-reward zone to watch lies between $111,700 and $113,500. Near current prices, Hyblock Capital data shows $115,883 is a key liquidation level, while KillaXBT’s analysis of order books suggests that if prices form a higher low at $115,700, a revisit to $113,800 may be unlikely. Looking at upside potential, analyst Captain Faibik stated that if bulls successfully break the descending wedge resistance at $118,000, it would open the door to challenging all-time highs. Swissblock also noted that while Bitcoin faced resistance at $118,000, the market is absorbing selling pressure in preparation for the next breakout. KillaXBT further predicted that in the event of a breakout, shorting strategies may need to wait for prices to reach the $125,000–$127,000 range. On the fundamental front, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, observed a significant increase in institutional buyers over the past six weeks, with a striking 100:1 buy-sell ratio. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and news of the White House planning to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve has significantly boosted market sentiment.  

Additionally, Ethereum briefly fell to around $3,600 this morning. Analyst Big Smokey noted that despite persistent selling pressure at the $4,000 level, ETH’s rebound pace has outpaced Bitcoin, largely driven by retail investors actively buying after long-term liquidation pressures near $3,600. Its cumulative funding rate once turned negative, viewed as a buy signal. However, cautious sentiment persists. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. mentioned that Ethereum has repeatedly failed to break the psychological $4,000 barrier since March, and its ecosystem TVL and DEX trading volume share have declined relative to competitors like Solana and BNB Chain, with weak on-chain activity fueling investor concerns. Nevertheless, Axel Adler Jr. also suggested a potential bullish scenario: if enterprises continue accumulating Ethereum reserves, its price could target $5,000. On the trading strategy front, analyst 0xSun adopted a hedging strategy of going long on Ethereum while shorting a basket of altcoins, reasoning that institutional funds tend to flow into ETH as the market’s primary driver, while altcoins face greater uncertainty.  

Yesterday’s most notable development was undoubtedly the SEC’s policy shift. SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced the launch of a commission-wide "Project Crypto," aiming to position the U.S. as a global crypto asset hub by revising securities rules. The plan includes establishing clear token classification standards, updating custody rules, simplifying trading licenses, creating principle-based regulatory pathways for DeFi and tokenized assets, and introducing an "innovation exemption" mechanism. Major news also emerged in traditional finance: Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio officially stepped down from the board, ending his era at the firm, while Bridgewater brought in Brunei’s sovereign wealth fund as a new major shareholder. Additionally, design giant Figma successfully listed and was revealed to hold significant Bitcoin, surging 250% at the open and an additional 25% after hours, now trading at $115. It is reported that Figma holds 700,000 BTC and plans to increase its holdings. On-chain data shows that its founder Dylan Field’s address holds 2.3 million AGLD tokens, worth $1.76 million.  

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT on August 1)  

(Sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)  

- Bitcoin: $115,619 (+23.51% YTD), daily spot trading volume $52.244 billion  

- Ethereum: $3,682.83 (+11.05% YTD), daily spot trading volume $34.676 billion  

- Fear & Greed Index: 65 (Greed)  

- Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB; ETH: 0.23 Gwei  

- Market Dominance: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%  

- Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Rankings: XRP, STRIKE, ETH, BTC, ENA  

- 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 47.95% / 52.05%  

- Sector Performance: NFT -8.98%; Meme -8.73%  

- 24-hour Liquidation Data: 160,329 people liquidated globally, with total liquidations of $630 million (BTC: $151 million, ETH: $182 million, SOL: $37.32 million)  

- BTC Mid-to-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper boundary ($118,359.86), lower boundary ($116,016.10)  

- ETH Mid-to-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper boundary ($3,687.83), lower boundary ($3,614.81)  

*Note: Prices above both boundaries indicate a mid-to-long-term bullish trend; conversely, prices below indicate a bearish trend. Prices within the range or short-term fluctuations across the cost zone indicate a bottoming or topping phase.*  

3. ETF Flows (as of July 31)  

- Bitcoin ETFs: -$115 million (first net outflow after 5 days of inflows)  

- Ethereum ETFs: +$16.9996 million (20th consecutive day of inflows)  

4. Today’s Outlook  

- Hong Kong implements the *Stablecoin Ordinance*.  

- Trump says tariff deadlines will not be extended, expiring on August 1.  

- Indonesia raises cryptocurrency transaction tax rates on August 1.  

- Binance delists XVS/TRY and YGG/TRY spot trading pairs on August 1.  

- Sui (SUI) unlocks ~44 million tokens (1.27% of current circulation, worth ~$188 million) on August 1.  

- GoPlus Security (GPS) unlocks ~542 million tokens (20.42% of current circulation, worth ~$11.6 million) on August 1.  

- ZetaChain (ZETA) unlocks ~44.26 million tokens (4.78% of current circulation, worth ~$9.9 million) on August 1.  

- Ethena (ENA) unlocks ~40.63 million tokens (0.64% of current circulation, worth ~$25 million) at 15:00 on August 2.  

- U.S. July Unemployment Rate: previous 4.10%, expected 4.20% (20:30 on August 1).  

- U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (10k): previous 14.7, expected 11.  

- Top 100 Market Cap Biggest Decliners Today: Pump.fun -19.1%, SPX6900 -15.4%, HEX -14.5%, Pudgy Penguins -12%, PulseX -11.9%.  

- HashKey Trading Moment: BTC faces pressure near $118,000; market focuses on tonight’s non-farm payroll data.  

5. Headline News  

- Strategy Q2 operating revenue reaches $14 billion, net profit $10 billion.  

- Mill City Ventures completes $450 million private placement and launches SUI treasury strategy.  

- U.S. stocks close: three major indices fall; new stock Figma surges 256%.  

- Coinbase adds 2,509 Bitcoins in Q2, total holdings reach 11,776.  

- White House: imposes 39% tariff on Swiss goods, raises Canadian tariffs from 25% to 35%.  

- "Ancient whale holding 3,963 BTC for 14.5 years" sells another 180 BTC.  

- Galaxy report: corporate cryptocurrency holdings exceed $100 billion.  

- U.S. June core PCE price index: 2.8% YoY, 0.3% MoM.  

- Pudgy Penguins CEO: team participates in U.S. crypto legislation; PENGU ETF to include tokens and NFTs.  

- Data: total value of ETH treasury reserves across 64 entities exceeds $1 billion.  

- Listed company xTAO holds $16 million in TAO, becoming Bittensor’s largest public holder.  

- Kaia’s native USDT launches at South Korean tourist spots; visitors can withdraw cash via stablecoin ATMs.  

- DoubleZero launches 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces staking token dzSOL.  

Disclaimer: The views in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice for this platform. This platform makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, originality, or timeliness of the information herein, nor shall it be liable for any losses arising from the use or reliance on such information.