Morning News

Source: Wall Street News

Market Overview

U.S. stocks fluctuated slightly before the annual meeting of the global central bank, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, the S&P fell slightly, and the Nasdaq stopped two consecutive negative results. Meta fell more than 2%, Tesla rebounded more than 1%, and Intel fell nearly 3.7%. Novo Nordisk's stock rose nearly 7%, while Novo Nordisk's self-paid version of affordable weight loss pill partner GoodRx rose 37%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose for three consecutive days, and the 10-year yield hit a new two-week high. The US dollar index rebounded, breaking from its lows for more than two weeks; Bitcoin fell by more than $3,000 during the session and fell below 115,000 at one point.

During the "Teze Club" period, crude oil maintained an intraday increase of more than 1%. Gold fell back to a two-week low.

During the Asian period, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high in the past 10 years, and the market transactions hit the third highest in history. Hong Kong stocks fell in the afternoon, and the stocks of Science and Technology rose generally, treasury bonds fell sharply, and commodity differentiation.

Important news

Li Qiang: Take effective measures to consolidate the trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing the real estate market, cultivate and strengthen service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment.

Wang Yi met with Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng.

After the "Tezer meeting", Trump called Putin and said he had begun to arrange a tripartite meeting, and both Russia and the United States supported direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

The US-India trade agreement may still be slim, and Trump advisers criticized India for making money from the United States to buy Putin's oil.

Hedge funds went long by backhand and bought US stocks at the fastest speed in seven weeks.

At the Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell made a key statement, and Wall Street unanimously "warned".

The Trump administration considers investing 10% of Intel, which may become the largest shareholder, and Intel once fell 5.5%.

Novo Nordisk has launched cash payment offers, and the monthly fee for Smegglutide in the United States has been reduced from 1,000 yuan to 499 US dollars. Novo Nordisk Wegovy is approved by the FDA for the treatment of MASH.

Market closing

European and American stock markets: The S&P 500 fell 0.01% to 6449.15 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.08% to 44,911.82 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.03% to 21,629.774 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.08% to 554.01 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.2 points.

Bond market: The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond rose 2.15 basis points to 4.3374%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 1.86 basis points to 3.7692%.

Commodity: COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce. WTI's September crude oil futures closed up 0.99% at $63.42 per barrel. Brent October crude oil futures closed up 1.14% at $66.60 per barrel.

**Details of Major News**

**Global Highlights**

Li Qiang: Take effective measures to consolidate the momentum of the real estate market stopping the decline and stabilizing, cultivate and expand service consumption, and step up efforts to expand effective investment. Li Qiang said that it is necessary to further enhance the effectiveness of macro - policy implementation, conduct in - depth assessments of policy implementation, promptly respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations; focus on key areas to strengthen the domestic big cycle, continuously stimulate consumption potential, systematically remove restrictive measures in the consumption field, and accelerate the cultivation and growth of new growth points such as service consumption and new consumption; step up efforts to expand effective investment, give play to the leading and driving role of major projects, adapt to changes in demand to invest more "in people" and serve people's livelihood, and actively promote private investment.

Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and India should strengthen confidence, work towards each other, eliminate interference, expand cooperation, consolidate the momentum of improving China - India relations, and let the rejuvenation processes of the two major Oriental civilizations promote and achieve each other, so as to provide the most needed certainty and stability for Asia and even the world.

After the "Tezep meeting", Trump called Putin, saying that arrangements for a tripartite meeting had begun, and both Russia and the United States supported direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said that the United States will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial help in the security field; Russia and Ukraine can negotiate a peace agreement while fighting, and he does not think that a ceasefire is necessary before negotiations. Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready for the tripartite meeting; it hopes to receive "all" security guarantees for Ukraine, and all sensitive issues such as territory will be discussed during the tripartite meeting.

After other European leaders attended the meeting, Trump said that it is necessary to discuss possible territorial swaps, and Russia's acceptance of security guarantees for Ukraine is an important step; the German Chancellor said that he hopes to see a ceasefire before the next meeting, but Trump has reservations about the ceasefire, saying that he suggests that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine hold talks to see the results. Macron believes that a four - party meeting involving Europe may be needed next.

A US - India trade agreement may still be far away. A Trump adviser sharply criticized India: making money from the US to buy Putin's oil. White House trade adviser Navarro posted that India has become a "global clearinghouse for Russian crude oil" and engaged in "opportunism" in buying Russian oil, pointing out that India's large oil lobbying groups are the driving force behind the purchase of Russian oil. He said that the Trump administration's tariff increases on India this month will work in two ways: both hitting India's ability to enter the US market and cutting off India's financial lifeline for Russia.

Hedge funds reversed their positions to go long and bought US stocks on a large scale at the fastest pace in seven weeks. According to Goldman Sachs data, hedge fund sentiment has changed dramatically. They were shorting at the fastest pace in four months the week before last, but bought US stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks last week. The strength of long buying was 2.4 times that of short selling. The total leverage ratio rose to 210.1%, which is the 93% quantile in nearly three years, indicating a rebound in risk appetite. However, the net leverage ratio and the long - short ratio are still at a medium - low level, indicating that there are still differences between long and short positions.

At the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell made a key speech, and Wall Street unanimously "warned". Considering that a series of data have not been released before the September meeting, Nomura expects that Powell will not give a "clear commitment" on Friday. Bank of America even expects that Powell will adhere to a tough hawkish stance, which is contrary to the market's expectations of easing. Morgan Stanley predicts that Powell will continue to emphasize inflation risks in his speech and resist the market's expectations of interest rate cuts.

US "sticky inflation" is accelerating again. At present, the market's interpretation of the July CPI report is relatively optimistic. But JPMorgan Chase said that a number of alternative inflation indicators show that inflation has not continued to decline, and the sticky part of core inflation is accelerating again, and a considerable part of its firmness is not related to tariffs. Unless the economy falls into recession, the continued firmness of inflation will not support the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive easing policy.

The Trump administration is considering taking a 10% stake in Intel, which may become the largest shareholder. Intel once fell 5.5%. Media reports say that the Trump administration is discussing investing in Intel by taking about a 10% stake, and the specific investment method may be to convert part or all of the company's grants under the US Chips and Science Act into equity. Based on Intel's current market value, about 10% of the shares are worth about $10.5 billion, and Intel has been scheduled to receive a total of about $10.9 billion in subsidies. Analysts said that this move does not mean that the US government's investment in Intel exceeds the original plan, and it may just accelerate the pace of fund disbursement. After the news was exposed, Intel's stock price fluctuated and fell.

Novo Nordisk launched a cash payment discount, and the monthly fee of semaglutide in the US was reduced from $1,000 to $499. Novo Nordisk announced on Monday that it will reduce the self - pay price of semaglutide (Ozempic) to $499 per month, which is about half of the original marked price. This price reduction is specifically for patients who have no medical insurance or whose medical insurance does not cover semaglutide, aiming to improve the "accessibility" of the drug. After the news was announced, Novo Nordisk rose more than 6% in intraday trading, and its partner Goodrx soared more than 37%.

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy was approved by the FDA for the treatment of MASH. Novo Nordisk's weight - loss drug Wegovy was recently approved by the US FDA for a new use, which can be used to treat metabolic dysfunction - related steatohepatitis (MASH). The news pushed the company's stock price up 5% at one point. This breakthrough allows Novo Nordisk to seize the first - mover advantage in the MASH field in the fierce competition in the GLP - 1 drug market, in order to reverse the decline in market value since the beginning of the year.

**Domestic Macro**

What's different about this A - share 10 - year high? According to Securities Times, in this round of rising, funds show significant characteristics such as higher position dispersion and preference for emerging industries and growth styles; the previous round of market conditions was more scattered and less concentrated. As one of the important forces in the A - share market, margin trading funds have gradually become active in the recent upward market, but there is still a certain distance from the historical high more than 10 years ago. China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that the balance of margin trading has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and in the long run, A - shares are still in the middle of a bull market, and a correction may be a good allocation opportunity.

The retracement experience of 5 rounds of bull markets in A - shares. Huachuang Securities does not think that the market will retrace at present, but it reviewed the retracement experience of bull markets and said that the tightening of liquidity is the main trigger for retracements in previous bull markets, and the index usually retraces after breaking through new highs. For the subsequent potential retracement triggers: at the macro level, observe whether this round of easing will be less than expected; at the micro level, pay attention to the inspection of margin trading accounts, the supervision of quantitative trading, the relaxation of IPO reductions, the large - scale outflow of ETFs, and geopolitical conflicts.

Why is Hong Kong stocks underperforming? What are Hong Kong stocks falling and A - shares rising trading respectively? Recently, Hong Kong stocks have continued to underperform, paling in comparison with A - shares, and the index has also stagnated. There are three reasons: first, the AH premium is too low, 125% is the "invisible bottom", and below this level, the attractiveness of dividends decreases. Second, the liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar has tightened. Third, profits have weakened. During the recent interim report period, the profits of Hong Kong stocks have continued to be revised down, which is consistent with macro data.

Stabilizing the stock market, what about the property market? Changjiang Securities believes that the rise of the stock market is mainly due to the support of monetary tools in September last year, but it is significantly divorced from fundamentals such as corporate profits, and its sustainability remains to be verified. In terms of the property market, the effect of multiple new policies in the past three years has been limited. Experience from various countries shows that aggregate policies and adjustments to real interest rates are the key, and unconventional policies are needed in the current low - inflation environment. Looking forward to the future, structural policies for real estate may be strengthened.

**Domestic Companies / Industries**

State Administration of Radio and Television: Improve management policies such as the number of episodes of TV dramas and the interval between seasons of TV dramas. Recently, the State Administration of Radio and Television issued and implemented the "Several Measures to Further Enrich TV Screen Content and Promote the Supply of Radio and Television Content". The "Several Measures" emphasize that it is necessary to take multiple measures to strengthen content construction and increase the supply of high - quality radio and television content. Implement the "Content Renewal Plan" to strengthen content innovation; improve management policies such as the number of episodes of TV dramas and the interval between seasons of TV dramas; improve the content review work of TV dramas, optimize the mechanism and improve efficiency; strengthen the production, broadcasting and promotion of ultra - high - definition programs; strengthen the creation of high - quality documentaries and cartoons; encourage and support excellent micro - dramas to be broadcast on TV; promote the introduction and broadcasting of excellent foreign programs, etc. At the same time, strengthen the construction of relevant laws, regulations and systems, and strengthen the protection of program copyrights.

The first batch of brokerage semi - annual reports are released: 5 brokerages have both revenue and net profit growth, and the performance of proprietary trading business is differentiated. According to Shanghai Securities News, as of August 18, 5 securities companies and their parent companies, including Guosheng Financial Holdings, East Money, Hatou Co., Ltd., Southwest Securities, and Yuekai Securities, have released their semi - annual "transcripts". All the above 5 securities companies have achieved growth in both revenue and net profit. Among them, thanks to the low base, the net profit of Jianghai Securities, a subsidiary of Hatou Co., Ltd., increased by 1311.60% year - on - year. In terms of business, the core forces driving the performance of securities companies in the first half of the year are differentiated, and proprietary trading capabilities have become a watershed for the performance of small and medium - sized securities companies.

The financial report "sounded the alarm". JPMorgan Chase: JD.com may withdraw from the price war in the third quarter, Alibaba may continue, and Meituan faces severe challenges. JPMorgan Chase said that JD.com's takeaway investment loss in the second quarter was 13 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 30%. Based on this, JPMorgan Chase raised its expectation of Alibaba's takeaway loss in the third quarter to more than 30 billion yuan. The three giants are facing a divided fate: JD.com may be the first to withdraw from the price war in the third quarter due to financial pressure; Alibaba is prepared for a protracted war and will continue to invest in the takeaway business; Meituan, as the traditional leader, is facing the most severe challenges, with prominent risks of double decline in market share and profits.

Aimeike's net profit plummeted 29.6% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The clinical trial of semaglutide injection is in progress, and it is proposed to pay 12 yuan per 10 shares. Aimeike, the "医美 giant", is facing the most severe performance challenge since its listing: in the first half of the year, revenue fell 21.6% year - on - year, and net profit attributable to the parent company fell 29.6% year - on - year, with all its main product lines shrinking significantly. However, the company's type A botulinum toxin has been submitted for registration and is under review. It obtained the production right of "Baby Face Needle" in the first half of the year, and semaglutide injection is also in clinical trial, which may support Aimeike's performance in the future.

**Overseas Macro**

The agreement was announced, but the US tariffs "have not been reduced for a long time", and Europe, Japan and South Korea are anxious. At present, the European Union, Japan and South Korea still face a 25% tariff on automobiles, and the 25% tariff on the British steel industry has not been reduced to zero as agreed. These countries can only wait in speculation, not sure whether this is due to the delay in administrative procedures or a sign of more complex negotiation difficulties.

The tariff effect continues to ferment, and the EU's exports to the US hit a two - year low. The drag effect of US trade tariffs is increasingly evident in Europe. According to data released by Eurostat on Monday, in June this year, exports from the 27 EU countries to the US fell 10% year - on - year to just over 40 billion euros (about 4.68 billion US dollars), the lowest level in two years.

**Overseas Companies / Industries**

The US nuclear renaissance has arrived, what will happen next? Morgan Stanley's report pointed out that large - scale new nuclear power projects still face challenges, and problems such as long construction cycles and difficult cost control have not been completely solved. But at the same time, the延寿 and restart projects of nuclear power units are advancing rapidly. Small modular reactors (SMRs) have become a key direction to break through development bottlenecks due to their advantages such as short construction cycles and low upfront costs. In terms of long - term capacity, under the "nuclear renaissance" scenario, the total US nuclear power capacity is expected to significantly increase to 150GW, and related industrial chains will also benefit.

The "ugly photos" of US corn are widely spread, the harvest expectation is questioned, and corn futures rise to a one - week high. Although the US Department of Agriculture predicts that corn yield and total output will hit a record high, photos of grain missing due to abnormal pollination have spread on social media, causing market concerns. Traders are closely watching the Pro Farmer Crop Tour starting this week to obtain on - site data to verify official expectations. With increasing uncertainty, Chicago corn futures prices rose to a one - week high on Monday.

**Industries / Concepts**

1. Solar thermal power generation: Due to the existence of large - scale heat storage systems, solar thermal power generation can achieve continuous, stable and dispatchable high - quality power output. Taking the molten salt energy storage system as an example, it can be charged and stored through the solar heat collection system, and can also convert peak power on the grid into heat energy for storage and power generation through the electric heating system, so it has broad development prospects.

2. Rare earth magnetic materials: Galaxy Securities analysis pointed out that many major domestic downstream manufacturers have conducted intensive bidding. In addition, after China strengthened the export control of rare earth magnetic materials, overseas countries increased magnetic material orders to replenish inventories. The demand for the domestic permanent magnet industry is strong, and the production scheduling of some magnetic material enterprises has been extended to mid - October. After the performance reversal of rare earth magnetic materials in the first half of the year, their performance is expected to be further released in Q3 2025 driven by the increase in both volume and price.

3. AI - PCB: Guojin Securities research report pointed out that the strong demand for AI - PCB has driven the industrial chain. The production capacity of leading copper clad laminate manufacturers has shifted to AI demand. The AI demand, coupled with the price increase of upstream raw materials, the price increase of copper clad laminates, drill bits, copper foil and other related materials is sustainable.

4. Domestic chips: Huawei's Pura80 series clearly carries the Kirin 9020, with upgraded architecture and advanced packaging technology, reflecting the breakthrough and confidence of the supply chain. Its chips cover multiple terminals, and their performance will further jump in the future, and drive the expansion of domestic chips in other fields.

**Preview of Today's Major News**

US July new housing starts and building permits.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivers a speech.

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