Morning News

# Market Overview  

Source: Wall Street CN  

The number of layoffs by U.S. Challenger companies in October hit the highest level for the same period in more than two decades. Combined with market doubts about the return on investment (ROI) of AI and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies were sold off, with the VIX (Fear Index) breaking through 20 at one point.  

The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants led the decline in U.S. stocks. NVIDIA fell for three consecutive sessions, dropping 3.6% intraday. Tesla declined 3.5%; after the market, its shareholder meeting approved Elon Musk’s $1 trillion compensation plan, and the stock price rose more than 2% at one point before retracing. Microsoft fell for seven straight sessions. AMD plummeted over 7%. Oracle dropped nearly 2.6%, erasing all the gains it previously made due to huge orders. DoorDash fell nearly 18% after releasing its earnings report. The China Concept Stock Index edged down 0.03%, outperforming the broader U.S. stock market, while XPeng soared nearly 10%.  

Safe-haven sentiment ran high: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 7.6 basis points, marking the largest single-day drop in two months. The U.S. dollar declined for two consecutive sessions, dropping 0.46% intraday. Bitcoin fell 2.5%, and Ethereum dropped more than 5.6% at one point. Against the backdrop of a weak U.S. dollar, gold rose 1% at one point but then experienced an inverted "V" movement and failed to hold the $4,000 level. Crude oil first rose and then fell; U.S. oil dropped 2.77% from its intraday high at one point.  

During the Asian trading session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks closed strongly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 4,000-point mark, the ChiNext Index rose 1.8%, and the computing hardware industry chain surged. The Hang Seng Index climbed over 2%, with machinery, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors leading the gains.  

# Key News  

- The U.S. officially released its updated list of critical minerals, including copper for the first time, along with silver, uranium, and potash.  

- The direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December remains unclear. This year’s voting members are hesitant to act due to the government shutdown, while next year’s voting members are more concerned about inflation.  

- The AI revolution is accelerating the wave of layoffs: the number of layoffs by U.S. Challenger companies in October surged 175.3% year-on-year, hitting the highest level for the same period in 20 years. Revelio Labs, a U.S. private data provider, reported that nonfarm payrolls turned negative in October, with 9,100 jobs lost. The National Retail Federation (NRF) stated that U.S. retail holiday hiring this year is expected to hit the lowest level since the financial crisis, while consumption is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time.  

- The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4% and held policy steady, with expectations of a rate cut in December rising.  

- Jensen Huang: China will beat the U.S. in the AI race.  

- Targeting NVIDIA, reports indicate that Google will launch its most powerful AI chip, TPU Ironwood, with a fourfold performance improvement, and has secured a large order from Anthropic.  

- Tesla’s shareholders voted to approve Musk’s "$1 trillion compensation package" without major hiccups.  

- Regarding the controversy over OpenAI executives’ gaffes, an advisor to Trump said: "If AI companies collapse, so be it—the U.S. government will not bail them out." OpenAI’s CFO stated that the company has "no plans to go public in the short term" and that the market needs to be more enthusiastic about AI.  

- Trump reached an agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will see the largest price cut in history, dropping to $245 per month.  

# Market Closing Quotes  

## U.S. and European Stocks  

- S&P 500: Down 1.12%, closing at 6,720.32  

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.84%, closing at 46,912.30  

- NASDAQ Composite: Down 1.90%, closing at 23,053.993  

- European STOXX 600 Index: Down 0.70%, closing at 567.90  

## A-Shares  

- Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 4,007.76, up 0.97%  

- Shenzhen Component Index: Closed at 13,452.42, up 1.73%  

- ChiNext Index: Closed at 3,224.62, up 1.84%  

## Bond Market  

- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell 7.01 basis points, closing at 4.0890%  

- U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield: Fell 6.59 basis points, closing at 3.5636%  

## Commodities  

- COMEX Gold Futures: Down 0.14%, closing at $3,987.40 per ounce  

- WTI Crude Oil Futures (December contract): Down 0.29%, closing at $59.43 per barrel  

- Brent Crude Oil Futures (January contract): Down 0.22%, closing at $63.38 per barrel  

### Notes on Key Terms  

1. **Challenger企业裁员数**: Refers to layoff data tracked by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a leading U.S. outplacement and career transition firm, widely used to gauge U.S. labor market trends.  

2. **科技七巨头 (Magnificent Seven)**: A group of top U.S. tech companies typically including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla.  

3. **GLP-1减肥药**: Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 receptor agonists, a class of drugs originally developed for type 2 diabetes, now widely used for weight loss (e.g., semaglutide, tirzepatide).  

4. **VIX (恐慌指数)**: The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market expectations for near-term volatility in the S&P 500, often called the "Fear Index."

# Detailed Key News  

## Global Highlights  

### U.S. Officially Releases Updated Critical Minerals List, Adding Copper for the First Time, Along with Silver, Uranium, and Potash  

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the Department of the Interior released its latest critical minerals list, which includes copper for the first time—marking the most significant adjustment since 2018. Unlike the draft list published in late August, the final version also incorporates metallurgical coal and uranium. This list determines which commodities will be included in the Trump administration’s Section 232 investigations related to critical minerals, with implications for future tariff policies and trade restrictions.  

### Fed’s December Rate Cut Direction Unclear: This Year’s Voters Hesitant Due to Government Shutdown, Next Year’s More Concerned About Inflation  

- Austan Goolsbee, a voting member of the Fed this year, argued that the government shutdown has led to a lack of key inflation data. While the labor market has more private-sector data sources, inflation data heavily relies on government reports.  

- Lorie Logan, a voting member next year, stated she remains worried about high inflation, noting it is a more pressing concern than employment. Amid the government shutdown and lack of official data, she places greater reliance on inflation signals from business feedback.  

- Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasized the need to focus on ensuring the labor market remains stable.  

- John Williams, the "third-ranking official at the Fed," said the U.S. is still in a period of low neutral interest rates, and current data is more important than estimates of the neutral rate when making practical policy decisions.  

### AI Revolution Accelerates Layoffs! U.S. Challenger Layoffs Surge 175.3% YoY in October, Hitting 20-Year High for the Same Period  

According to the Challenger Report, U.S. companies announced 153,074 layoffs in October, a year-on-year jump of 175.3% and the highest level in two decades. Year-to-date, total layoffs in the U.S. have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic; meanwhile, corporate hiring plans have dropped to their lowest level since 2011 over the same period.  

### U.S. Private Data Provider Revelio Labs: October Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative, Losing 9,100 Jobs  

The U.S. labor market showed signs of contraction in October. Private data from Revelio Labs indicated that U.S. nonfarm payrolls decreased by 9,100 in October, compared to an increase of 33,000 in the previous month. Market activity cooled simultaneously, with both hiring and quit rates slowing—signaling reduced employee mobility and weaker momentum for economic expansion.  

### U.S. Retail Holiday Hiring Expected to Hit Lowest Since Financial Crisis, While Spending May Top $1 Trillion for the First Time  

The National Retail Federation (NRF) stated on Thursday that U.S. retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 workers for the holiday season this year—the lowest seasonal hiring level in at least 15 years (retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers last holiday season). Nevertheless, the NRF projected that holiday spending between November 1 and December 31 this year will reach a record $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time.  

### Bank of England Holds Rates Steady at 4%, December Rate Cut Expectations Rise  

This marks the first time the Bank of England has paused its consecutive rate-cutting cycle since it began in August last year. Meeting minutes showed that Governor Andrew Bailey was the most dovish member of the rate-holding camp, judging that "inflation risks have recently diminished and become more balanced." The Bank of England revised its policy guidance, stating that interest rates "are likely to continue along a gradual downward path" and removing the word "carefully" from its previous statement.  

### Jensen Huang: China Will Beat the U.S. in the AI Race  

Jensen Huang claimed that China will outperform the U.S. in the artificial intelligence competition, citing lower energy costs and a more relaxed regulatory environment.  

### Targeting NVIDIA: Report Says Google to Launch Most Powerful AI Chip TPU Ironwood with 4x Performance Boost, Secures Major Order from Anthropic  

Reports indicate that this chip can connect up to 9,216 chips into a single cluster, and Google claims it eliminates the "data bottleneck for the most demanding models." While most large language models and AI workloads rely on NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs), Google’s TPUs—custom silicon chips—offer advantages in price, performance, and efficiency. AI startup Anthropic plans to use up to 1 million of the new TPUs to run its Claude model.  

### Tesla Shareholders Approve Musk’s "$1 Trillion Compensation Package" Without Major Hiccups  

### Controversy Over OpenAI Executives’ Gaffe: Trump Advisor Says "If AI Companies Collapse, So Be It—U.S. Gov’t Won’t Bail Them Out"  

On Wednesday, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar implied that the U.S. government could guarantee data center financing. On Thursday, David Sacks, an AI advisor to the Trump administration, responded: "The U.S. has at least 5 major cutting-edge AI model companies; if one collapses, others will take its place." As the incident escalated, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated: "We do not need nor want the U.S. government to guarantee financing for OpenAI’s data centers."  

### OpenAI CFO: "No IPO Plans in the Short Term," "Market Needs More Enthusiasm for AI," Seeks Government Guarantees for Data Center Financing  

OpenAI’s CFO said an IPO is not currently under consideration, as the company is focused on adapting to its growing scale and does not want to be constrained by IPO-related matters. She noted that OpenAI could have quickly become profitable with "very healthy" gross margins from its enterprise and consumer businesses if it were not investing so aggressively. She also mentioned that the market is overly worried about an AI bubble and needs more "enthusiasm," adding that OpenAI’s computing power expansion has reached a "national scale."  

### Trump Reaches Deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs See Largest Price Cut in History to $245 per Month  

Trump announced an agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to lower the price of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs to $245 per month, with coverage under Medicare to be included for the first time starting in 2026. Analysts believe this move will significantly improve access to the drugs and unlock a larger market, with more private insurers likely to follow with coverage.  

### History Repeats or Coincidence? First Burry Shorts, Then Deutsche Bank Hedges—"Big Short 2.0" Unfolds!  

During the 2008 financial crisis, "Big Short" investor Michael Burry gained fame by shorting the housing bubble, while Deutsche Bank marketed credit default swaps (CDS) to allow investors to hedge real estate risks. Now, Michael Burry has issued another warning about an AI bubble, betting 80% of his position on an AI collapse. Deutsche Bank has also begun considering shorting AI stocks and exploring "synthetic risk transfer" (SRT) trading tools to package and sell default risks of data center loans.  

### Ray Dalio: Fed Ending QT = Stimulating Economy Amid Bubbles; U.S. "Great Debt Cycle" Enters Most Dangerous Phase!  

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed "will increase reserves again at the appropriate time." In Dalio’s view, this signals the return of quantitative easing (QE), but the current environment (rife with market bubbles) differs sharply from the past (economic recessions). Due to highly stimulative fiscal policies—with massive debt stocks and deficits funded by large-scale Treasury issuances—QE is essentially monetizing government debt rather than simply providing liquidity to the private sector. This could lead to a repeat of the liquidity frenzy seen on the eve of the 1999 bubble burst.  

### Goldman Sachs Interprets "U.S. Supreme Court Tariff Hearing": Outcome Still Tight, Ruling Expected in Dec/Jan; Tax Refunds Would Take Months; Small Countries May Benefit, Major Ones Unaffected  

Goldman Sachs stated that the hearing is deadlocked, with most justices currently skeptical, but the ruling remains pending. The court is expected to issue a decision in December 2025 or January 2026. The final outcome may involve slightly lower tariffs on a few small trading partners, while the net impact on major trading partners will be minimal.  

## Domestic Macroeconomics  

### Xi Jinping: Earnestly Study and Implement the Spirit of the 24th CPC Central Committee Plenum, Build Hainan Free Trade Port to High Standards  

Xi Jinping emphasized the need to steadily expand institutional opening-up and further enhance the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. He called for deeper advancement of commodity and factor mobility-based opening-up to better promote cross-border flows of production factors. Efforts should be made to build a modern industrial system with Hainan’s distinctive features and advantages, drive the optimization and upgrading of leading industries, promote in-depth integration of technological and industrial innovation, and strive to make new breakthroughs in developing new productive forces.  

### Historic First: China’s "Borrowing Rate" Equals That of the U.S.  

On Thursday, China’s Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds. The coupon rate for the 3-year bond was 3.625%, equivalent to the yield of U.S. Treasuries of the same maturity, while the 5-year bond was priced at just 0.02 percentage points higher than U.S. Treasuries. The 5-year bond was oversubscribed 30 times, with half purchased by central banks and sovereign wealth funds—demonstrating strong confidence from international investors in China’s sovereign credit.  

### National-Level Fund Increases Investment in Hyperfusion  

According to the Shanghai Securities News, Hyperfusion Digital Technology Co., Ltd.—which has launched IPO preparations—has received a strategic investment from the National Guidance Fund (a national-level fund). Spun off from Huawei’s X86 server business, the company has achieved a threefold revenue jump from RMB 10 billion in 2022 to RMB 40 billion in 2024, thanks to its leading position in the standard liquid-cooled server market. It is now accelerating its IPO process by expanding its financial team.  

## Domestic Companies/Industries  

### Foreign Short Positions on Xiaomi Surge 53% in the Past Week; Soaring Memory Prices Are a Factor  

According to the latest report from Goldman Sachs’ market team, hedge funds feedback indicates that Xiaomi is "a consensus short/sell target at least in the short term due to a lack of catalysts." Goldman Sachs’ research team recently lowered Xiaomi’s target price, citing reasons including: rising memory chip prices suppressing smartphone gross margins, AIoT business growth slowing to single digits, and delayed delivery due to the postponement of the second-phase electric vehicle factory.  

### Shenzhen Huaqiangbei Memory Prices Double—Busier Than Shuibei Gold Market! Merchants: "Prices Rise Daily, May Get More Expensive Later," But Dare Not Stock Up  

A memory chip price surge triggered by AI computing power demand is sweeping Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei. Prices of DDR4 memory modules and solid-state drives (SSDs) have doubled, with "daily price changes" observed. This sharp volatility stems from global memory giants shifting production capacity to more profitable HBM and DDR5 products, leading to a sharp decline in supply of traditional DDR4. Meanwhile, AI servers require 8 times more memory chips than ordinary servers, and the supply-demand imbalance has pushed memory chips into a new price hike cycle.  

### Hua Hong Semiconductor Q3 Revenue Up 20.7% YoY; Strong Demand for 12-Inch Wafers, Q4 Revenue Expected to Rise to $650M-$660M  

Hua Hong Semiconductor reported Q3 revenue of $635.2 million, with net profit down 42.6% YoY but up 223.5% QoQ. Its 12-inch wafer business accounted for 59.3% of total revenue. Looking ahead, Hua Hong Semiconductor expects Q4 revenue to further climb to between $650 million and $660 million, with gross margin projected to remain in the range of 12% to 14%.  

### TSMC to Exit Mature Process Nodes  

As TSMC shifts its focus increasingly to advanced process nodes, it will also advise clients to transfer some mature process orders to its subsidiary, Vanguard International Semiconductor. By licensing technology and selling 12-inch mature process equipment to Vanguard, TSMC will enable Vanguard to take over low-margin mature process orders that TSMC has phased out.  

### BYD Enters Japan with K-Cars: Expected to Capture 30% of the Market, Contribute $400M-$100M Annual Profit—Strategic Significance Outweighs Numbers  

JPMorgan stated that K-cars account for 30%-40% of Japan’s auto sales, with annual sales of 1.2 million units. While the profit will only account for 1%-2% of BYD’s expected 2026 earnings, the strategic significance is significant—it demonstrates BYD’s long-term commitment to the international market. This marks the first time a Chinese automaker has designed and developed a new model specifically for the unique needs of an overseas market, signifying a shift from simple exports to in-depth localized operations.  

### Non-Ferrous Metals Rally, Aluminum Leads; TF Securities: "Electrolytic Aluminum Is the Perfect Combination of Elasticity and Dividends"  

TF Securities pointed out that the electrolytic aluminum industry is transforming from a traditional cyclical sector to a dividend-yielding asset. The sector’s dividend yield reached 6.0% in 2024, leading major high-dividend industries. On the supply side, domestic capacity has approached the 45 million-ton policy ceiling, with capacity utilization at 97.5%. On the demand side, the structure is optimizing—transportation and power sectors together account for over 43% of demand. The industry’s capital expenditure peak has passed, free cash flow has improved significantly, ROE stability has increased, and high profitability is expected to persist long-term.  

## Overseas Macroeconomics  

### U.S. Hosts Central Asia Leaders’ Summit; Trump Launches "Resource War"  

Analysts believe this move indicates Trump is stepping up efforts to seize control of critical resources in Central Asia. On the eve of the summit, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focusing on discussions about "potential for mutually beneficial cooperation" in areas such as energy, critical minerals, transportation, and logistics.  

### Not Just AI Has a "Loop"—U.S. Stocks Also Have a "Loop": Layoffs Boost Stock Prices, Rising Stocks Stimulate Consumption, Strong Consumption Supports Earnings  

The U.S. economy is trapped in a "reflexive loop": corporate cost-cutting boosts stock prices, the wealth effect stimulates consumption, and consumption in turn supports earnings. However, JPMorgan warned that this resilience driven by asset prices is unsustainable. Falling savings rates and weak income expectations are weakening consumption momentum. Once stock markets decline, the current "cushion" could quickly reverse into an "amplifier" that exacerbates economic downturns.  

### Buffett Indicator and Barclays Indicator Both Flash "Red"—U.S. Stocks Form Unprecedented Bubble!  

The Buffett Indicator shows that the size of the U.S. stock market (currently approximately $72 trillion) has exceeded twice the country’s GDP, surpassing the historical record set during the pandemic. The Barclays Indicator shows that the proportion of "euphoric stocks" has reached 11%—a level previously seen only during the 1999 dot-com bubble and the 2021 meme stock frenzy.  

### Report: Trump Considers Multiple Offensive Options Against Venezuela, Including Seizing Oil Fields; Oil Prices Rise in Response  

Reports indicate that the U.S. government is evaluating multiple military strike plans against Venezuela, involving special forces operations and oil field control, which may bypass congressional legal restrictions. There are obvious divisions within the White House, and geopolitical tensions are escalating.  

### Bitcoin’s Current Correction: Liquidity Shock Intensified by Government Shutdown at the End of the "Four-Year Mega Cycle"  

A Citigroup report noted that the crypto market meltdown on October 10 may have damaged investors’ risk appetite. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed significantly in recent weeks. On-chain indicators show that Bitcoin "whales" (large holders) are gradually decreasing, while holdings in smaller retail wallets are increasing. Funding rates are also declining, reflecting insufficient demand for leverage. Technically, Bitcoin has now fallen below its 200-day moving average, which may further suppress demand. Citigroup still believes the market is in the early stages of adoption of digital currencies by financial advisors and other investors, but spot ETF fund flows will be a key indicator for observing changes in market sentiment.  

# Overseas Companies

## Report: Google Plans to Increase Investment in Anthropic, Whose Valuation May Exceed $350 Billion

Google is in negotiations to increase its investment in Anthropic, a move that could push the latter's valuation above $350 billion and further solidify the competitive landscape between Anthropic and Microsoft-backed OpenAI. Anthropic is seeking a high valuation based on aggressive financial forecasts, projecting annual revenue to reach $70 billion by 2028. It also aims to challenge OpenAI's scale advantage with higher capital efficiency. Notably, the annualized revenue of its programming assistant, Claude Code, has approached $10 billion.

## Google Cloud's High Growth Has Just Begun! Morgan Stanley: Even Under Conservative Estimates, Its Growth Rate May Exceed 50% Next Year

Morgan Stanley believes that by decomposing Google Cloud's revenue structure into two synergistically growing business segments—"backlog orders" and "immediate demand"—Google Cloud's revenue growth rate in 2026 is highly likely to exceed 50%, even under relatively conservative assumptions. The continuous outperforming performance of the cloud business will serve as a key catalyst for driving the expansion of the company's valuation multiple and enabling its stock price to outperform the broader market driven by AI.

## Microsoft AI Establishes SuperIntelligence Team, Targeting the New Track of "Super Intelligence"

Microsoft AI aims to develop a super intelligence system that surpasses Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This initiative will focus on areas such as healthcare, clean energy, and personal AI assistants. This move marks a strategic shift for Microsoft following the renegotiation of its cooperation agreement with OpenAI. Previously, Microsoft had committed not to develop AGI, but the new agreement has lifted this restriction.

## Driven by Demand for AI Data Centers, Coherent's Q1 Revenue Increased by 17% Year-on-Year, Exceeding Expectations, with Record Orders for Optical Products

In the quarter, the company achieved revenue of $1.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, which exceeded the market expectation of $1.54 billion. Its earnings per share (EPS) stood at $1.16, surpassing Wall Street's average expectation of $1.04. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter that the company has outperformed market profit expectations. The better-than-expected performance is mainly attributed to strong demand in the AI data center and communications sectors.

## Citadel Leads Wall Street Consortium in Investing, Cryptocurrency Giant Ripple's Valuation Reaches $40 Billion, Surpassing Circle

The new valuation makes Ripple one of the world's most valuable unlisted cryptocurrency companies.

## Everything Can Be Gambled: The New Era of "全民豪赌" (Nationwide Gambling) in the US!

Robinhood's third-quarter revenue doubled to a record $1.27 billion, with its prediction market business contributing approximately $25 million. The platform now allows betting on a wide range of events, from the year-end level of the S&P 500 to Oscar awards, realizing the concept of "gambling on everything". The cumulative trading volume of event contracts has exceeded 4 billion. The prediction market has shown explosive growth; according to Piper Sandler's estimate, the October trading volumes of peer platforms Kalshi and Polymarket also nearly doubled. Benefiting from the relaxed regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, 90% of Robinhood's revenue comes from non-stock transactions such as options and cryptocurrencies. This signifies that the speculative model of "gambling on everything" is becoming a new growth engine for financial platforms.

## Berkshire Plans to Issue Yen Bonds to Pave the Way for Further Increasing Holdings in Japan's Five Major Trading Companies?

Berkshire plans to issue yen bonds again, sparking speculation that it will increase its holdings in Japan's five major trading companies. Analysts stated that Buffett's financing in yen indicates that he has locked in investment opportunities in Japan. This move is also regarded as an important barometer of sentiment in the yen credit market, driving the stock prices of Itochu, Mitsubishi Corporation, and other companies to rise by more than 2%, outperforming the Tokyo Stock Price Index.

## Duolingo's Guidance Falls Short of Expectations, Plunging Nearly 30% in Intraday Trading! CEO: Prioritize Teaching Quality Over Profitability for Now

Duolingo's stock price plummeted nearly 30% in intraday trading on Thursday due to its fourth-quarter performance guidance falling short of expectations. The company emphasized that it will prioritize investment in long-term projects and teaching quality over short-term monetization. Although its third-quarter revenue, net profit, and paying users all exceeded expectations, its daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) data were underwhelming. The market is concerned that the trade-off between user growth and monetization will weigh on its short-term performance.

# Industries/Concepts

## 1. Optical Modules

On November 6th, Coherent, a leading US-listed optical module company, announced its first fiscal quarter revenue of $1.58 billion, compared with the expected $1.54 billion; its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first fiscal quarter was $1.16, versus the estimated $1.05. The revenue growth is mainly driven by strong demand from AI Data Centers (AIDC) and communications. With the growing demand and the continuous expansion of the company's production capacity, Coherent expects to maintain strong growth throughout the fiscal year. The company's stock price rose significantly before the market opened.

**Commentary**: China Galaxy Securities believes that the evolution of AI data center architecture is driving demand for high-end optical modules, and the industry has strong long-term growth momentum. According to market research firm LightCounting, the global Ethernet optical module market growth rate is expected to remain around 50% in 2025, followed by a relatively stable phase in the next five years, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% to 18%. In terms of technological evolution, pluggable optical modules will be the mainstream in the 800G and 1.6T era. However, for high-density deployment in the 3.2T era, new technical routes such as LPO (Linear Power Optics) and CPO (Co-packaged Optics) are gradually maturing, and CPO is expected to become a key solution for building Scale-up multi-rack systems. Overall, the evolution of AI data center architecture will continue to drive demand for high-end optical modules, bringing long-term growth momentum to the industry.

## 2. Semiconductors

Recently, Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), revealed during the third-quarter earnings conference call that the company has obtained an export license for its Instinct MI308 AI chip to China, but has not yet planned to include revenue from China in its fourth-quarter financial forecast. This chip is considered a strong competitor to NVIDIA's H20 chip. Additionally, whether NVIDIA's Blackwell AI chip will be approved for sale in China remains uncertain, giving AMD a slight advantage in the Chinese market.

**Commentary**: Research institutions believe that AMD's layout in the AI field is continuously deepening and achieving significant progress. The company's launched Instinct MI350 series accelerators have delivered outstanding performance, featuring industry-leading memory bandwidth and capacity. They have demonstrated performance equal to or even surpassing that of competitors in key training and inference workloads, while achieving lower costs and complexity. The adoption of MI355 is faster than expected, and it has gained interest from a large number of new customers in the past 90 days. MI355 started mass production ahead of schedule in June and is expected to achieve large-scale production ramp-up in the second half of the year. The rapid development of AI chips is bringing new opportunities to segments such as semiconductor equipment.

## 3. Nuclear Energy

The China Energy Research Society and China General Nuclear Power Group Co., Ltd., together with China National Nuclear Corporation and China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., plan to hold the 2025 4th China Nuclear Energy High-Quality Development Conference and Shenzhen International Nuclear Energy Industry Innovation Expo at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center from November 12th to 14th. With the theme of "Nuclear Gathering in the Bay Area · Energizing the World" and the goal of "becoming a world-class nuclear energy exhibition", this conference will join hands with the industry to create a globally influential nuclear energy industry exchange event.

**Commentary**: Huafu Securities believes that the growth of global nuclear power generation over the past decade has mainly relied on Asia. Among the 68 newly commissioned nuclear power units worldwide, 56 are located in Asia; currently, 59 out of 70 under-construction units are distributed in Asia. Among the 7 units connected to the grid for power generation globally in 2024, China's Zhangzhou Unit 1, Shidaowan "Guohe No. 1", and Fangchenggang Unit 4 are included. Compared with other power generation methods, the annual utilization hours of nuclear power units have remained above 7,000 hours for a long time, ranking first among all power sources. Moreover, nuclear power generation does not emit sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, soot, or carbon dioxide during the production process. As various regions gradually attach importance to nuclear energy, in addition to the development of nuclear power, nuclear energy will play a greater role in seawater desalination, nuclear hydrogen production, medical protection, and other fields in the future.

## 4. 5G

According to CCTV News, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) has officially released the world's first international standard for industrial 5G, titled *General Requirements for 5G Communication Technology in Industrial Networks*. Proposed jointly by China and Germany, this standard fills the gap in international standards for the industrial 5G field. Focusing on the basic architecture, working mechanism, and maintenance management of 5G networks in industrial on-site applications, the standard provides various application scenario use cases for the integration of 5G and industrial sites. It is applicable to the entire life cycle of 5G industrial wireless communication systems, from planning, design, and construction to optimization, and provides a unified technical specification for domestic and foreign users, design institutions, and equipment manufacturers to deploy and apply 5G technology in industrial environments.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal points out that currently, the in-depth integration of 5G and industry has become a core engine driving the global industrial digitalization, networking, and intelligent transformation. The release of this standard marks a milestone international achievement for China in the field of "5G + Industry" integrated applications, contributing Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the digital transformation of the global manufacturing industry. Data shows that the global industrial 5G market size will reach 345.749 billion yuan in 2025, with China accounting for 98.262 billion yuan. It is expected that the global market will expand at a growth rate of 41.32% from 2025 to 2032, and is projected to exceed 3.89 trillion yuan by 2032.

## 5. Commercial Aviation

According to Science and Technology Daily, at the press conference of the 27th China Hi-Tech Fair (CHTF) held on November 5th, it was learned that the CHTF, known as "China's No. 1 Science and Technology Exhibition", will be held from November 14th to 16th. During the exhibition, China's space tourism project will make its global debut. This year's exhibition is expected to cover a total area of 400,000 square meters and set up 22 professional exhibition areas, including National Key Advanced Equipment, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, Consumer Electronics, Low-Altitude Economy and Commercial Aerospace.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal notes that with the advancement of science and technology, more and more countries have realized that the "space vision" will lead the development of the world economy, and space has become a new competitive frontier. In the future, the space economy will become a new industrial field, covering satellite communications, satellite navigation, satellite remote sensing, space tourism, space mining, and other aspects. It is predicted that by 2030, the global space economy output value is expected to exceed $1 trillion. At present, China has begun to engage in the market-oriented operation of space tourism. With the continuous improvement of China's aerospace capabilities, the cost of space tourism will continue to decrease. Once the marketization of space tourism is realized, its customers will be global, and the future market prospects will be broad.

## 6. OLED

According to CCTV News, three high-end pieces of equipment applied in the mass production line of 8.6-generation large-sized OLED screens were officially released in Chengdu, marking a new breakthrough for China in the field of display equipment. Currently, OLED screens are expanding from mobile phones to medium and large-screen application scenarios such as computers and in-vehicle devices. The three high-end display equipment released this time are the multi-application inkjet thin-film deposition platform, China's first set of large-piece lamination equipment, and China's first set of EHD (Electrohydrodynamic) dispensing equipment, all of which are applied in the mass production line of 8.6-generation large-sized OLED screens.

# Today's Key News Preview

- China's October trade balance

- China's October foreign exchange reserves

- US November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

- Speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams

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