After the changes in Venezuela, OPEC+ stated that it

# Despite Geopolitical Turmoil, Core OPEC+ Members Reaffirm Commitment to Oil Market Stability, Maintain Current Output Policy Through Q1 2026

On January 4 local time, eight key OPEC+ member states, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, held a virtual meeting to review global market conditions. Participants decided to reaffirm the decision announced on November 2, 2025, namely to suspend the planned production increase for February and March 2026 in light of seasonal demand patterns.

This decision was made against the backdrop of lingering geopolitical tensions, notably the unrest in Venezuela triggered by the US forcible detention of President Nicolás Maduro, as well as strained relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the Yemen issue. However, OPEC+ representatives stated that these geopolitical variables have not altered the group’s near-term policy stance, with market stability remaining the top priority.

The joint statement noted that current relatively low inventory levels indicate that the oil market is actually in a sound balanced state, despite the sharp drop in oil prices last year. Analysts pointed out that amid a fragile market environment, OPEC+ opted for a cautious approach, aiming to avoid introducing new uncertainties to an already volatile market by retaining policy flexibility.

It is worth noting that while Venezuela holds massive oil reserves, chronic underinvestment has left its daily output at just 1 million barrels, making it unlikely to disrupt global supply in the short term.

## Production Policy and Market Balance

In the latest statement, the eight major oil-producing nations emphasized that current market conditions remain supportive.

Although oil prices plunged more than 18% in 2025—the steepest annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic—driven by supply growth outpacing demand and mounting concerns over a supply glut, OPEC+ views low inventory levels as compelling evidence of a well-balanced market.

Furthermore, the group explicitly stated that whether the previously announced voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day can be partially or fully reversed in the future will depend entirely on evolving market conditions, and any such reversal will only be implemented in a "gradual manner".

Oil-producing countries stressed that "flexibility" remains the cornerstone of their strategy, including the option to extend or reverse additional voluntary adjustment measures, such as the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut announced in November 2023.

To ensure the credibility of policy implementation, OPEC+ reaffirmed its commitment to collective compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation.

The oil-producing nations confirmed that any excess production since January 2024 will be fully compensated for, and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will continue to monitor compliance and compensation progress. The eight member states agreed to hold monthly meetings to assess the market, with the next session scheduled for February 1, 2026.

## Venezuela’s Uncertainties and Production Realities

While OPEC+’s current policy focus is on maintaining the status quo, the political upheaval in Venezuela has added a new layer of complexity to the market.

According to Jorge Leon, analyst at consulting firm Rystad Energy AS, the political transition in Venezuela introduces another major dimension of uncertainty.

Although Caracas may hold the world’s largest proven oil reserves, years of underinvestment and mismanagement have significantly eroded its standing.

Robert Rohde, lead scientist at independent scientific research organization Berkeley Earth, posted on social platform X stating:

> Approximately two-thirds of Venezuela’s so-called "world’s largest proven oil reserves" stem from the reclassification of vast quantities of low-utility heavy crude oil as recoverable reserves by the governments of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, based on relaxed assumptions.

Currently, Venezuela’s daily oil output stands at around 1 million barrels—just one-third of its level a decade ago—and accounts for less than 1% of global supply.

Notably, recent efforts by Washington to pressure the Maduro regime, coupled with the seizure and tracking of oil tankers, have curbed production in Venezuela’s key Orinoco Belt by 25%.

According to analysis by consultancy Kpler, if sanctions are lifted, Venezuela’s production could rise by approximately 150,000 barrels per day within a few months. However, restoring output to 2 million barrels per day or higher would require "large-scale reforms" and substantial investment from international oil companies.

This means that Venezuela is unlikely to exert a disruptive impact on the global supply landscape in the short term.

**Source: Wall Street Insights**

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