Triple your profits! Samsung expects Q4 profit of 20 trillion and revenue of 93 trillion won to double record highs, AI triggers "out of control" storage price increase

# Source: Wall Street Insights

By Long Yue

The company released its Q4 earnings guidance: operating profit is expected to surge to an all-time high of **20 trillion KRW**, tripling year-on-year and skyrocketing 64% quarter-on-quarter, while sales also soared to a record high of **93 trillion KRW**. Fueled by the AI frenzy, Samsung is witnessing an "uncontrolled" surge in both volume and price, potentially signaling to Wall Street the arrival of the strongest seller’s market for memory chips in history. The company expects to release its full earnings report later this month.

**Memory Chips Red-Hot; Samsung Electronics' Profit to Hit Record High Amid AI Wave**

On January 8 (local time), Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, issued its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting results that far exceed market expectations.

According to Samsung’s preliminary data, the company’s operating profit for the December quarter is expected to reach **20 trillion KRW (approximately $13.8 billion)**. This figure not only represents a staggering year-on-year surge but also shatters the previous historical record of 17.6 trillion KRW set in Q3 2018. By comparison, analysts’ average forecast stood at just 17.8 trillion KRW. In terms of revenue, sales are estimated to climb 23% year-on-year to a historic high of **93 trillion KRW**.

- **Operating Profit**: Projected to hit 20 trillion KRW, **tripling year-on-year** (a 208% YoY surge) and **jumping 64% quarter-on-quarter**.

- **Sales**: Compared with 75.79 trillion KRW in Q4 2024, sales surged by about 23% YoY; versus 86.06 trillion KRW in the previous quarter, sales rose approximately 8% QoQ.

The logic behind the data is crystal clear: this is not a story of broad-based demand recovery, but rather one of supply-side constraints driven by AI.

To meet the insatiable demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade SSDs from AI giants like NVIDIA, Samsung and other memory manufacturers are aggressively shifting production lines from ordinary consumer-grade chips to high-margin premium chips. This structural capacity reallocation has directly led to a severe shortage of standard memory chips used in laptops and servers.

- **DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory)**: According to Sanjeev Rana, Head of Korea Research at CLSA Securities, the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM surged by **over 30% quarter-on-quarter** in Q4.

- **NAND (Flash Memory)**: Prices rose by approximately **20% QoQ**.

- **YoY Data Even More Striking**: Per data from market tracker TrendForce, the contract price of a certain type of DRAM chip skyrocketed by **313% year-on-year** in the fourth quarter.

For the market, the expectation gap lies in this: while investors had anticipated price hikes, they underestimated hyperscalers’ willingness to pay a premium to secure DRAM supplies, as well as the severity of the supply crunch. Samsung’s share price has doubled over the past six months and continued to soar this month, reflecting strong bullish sentiment on the memory cycle.

## Wall Street Bets on "Uncontrolled" Price Hikes for Memory Chips

Currently, Wall Street is still betting on "uncontrolled" price surges for memory chips.

According to a Wall Street Insights article, Citi’s latest report suggests that analysts believe the market is entering an extremely intense seller’s market. Citi warns of a "severe global shortage of memory chips" in 2026, issuing an aggressive forecast:

- **Price Runaway**: The ASP of server DRAM is projected to surge **144% year-on-year in 2026** (up from the previous forecast of 91%); enterprise-grade SSD prices are expected to jump 87%.

- **Upward Earnings Revision**: Based on this outlook, Citi forecasts Samsung Electronics' operating profit to surge to **155 trillion KRW in 2026**, a staggering 253% YoY increase.

CLSA analysts also point out that hyperscalers are willing to pay premiums to secure supplies, and price strength will persist throughout 2026, potentially extending into the first half of 2027.

## Catching Up in HBM: From Lagging to Counterattack

In this AI boom, Samsung had initially lagged behind rivals SK Hynix and Micron Technology in the HBM space. However, the latest signals indicate that Samsung is narrowing the gap.

Reports suggest that Samsung delivered samples of its cutting-edge **HBM4** to NVIDIA for qualification testing last year. This has sparked optimistic market expectations that Samsung is on track to begin mass production in the first half of this year, to support NVIDIA’s upcoming Rubin processor. CLSA predicts that with HBM4 entering commercial supply, Samsung’s total HBM shipments will **triple in 2026**.

If Samsung successfully passes validation and ramps up mass production, it will trigger another re-rating of its valuation logic—shifting from merely benefiting from cyclical price hikes to becoming a key player in the core AI supply chain.

## Downstream Pain: The Double-Edged Sword of Price Hikes

Yet, the flip side of the coin is the sharp cost inflation for downstream hardware.

TM Roh, Co-CEO of Samsung’s Mobile, TV and Home Appliances Business, publicly acknowledged that the impact of rising memory chip prices is "inevitable", and did not rule out the possibility of raising product prices. Seo Seung-yeon, an analyst at DB Securities, predicts that profit for Samsung’s mobile business may decline year-on-year in the fourth quarter due to rising component costs.

Counterpoint Research forecasts that the price of DDR5 memory used in computers and servers will rise by another **40% this quarter** and a further **20% in Q2**. This means that while Samsung’s semiconductor division is raking in record profits, its consumer electronics division and customers like Apple are facing severe margin pressure.

Samsung is scheduled to release its full financial statements—including net profit and detailed segment breakdowns—later this month (expected on January 29).

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This document does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this document are consistent with their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this document shall be at the user’s own risk.