Breaking through the 140 trillion yuan mark! China's GDP will grow by 5% year-on-year in 2025, and GDP will grow by 4.5% in the fourth quarter

# Source: Wall Street Insights

By Ye Zhen

The gross domestic product (GDP) of China reached 1,401,879 billion yuan in 2025, representing a **5.0% year-on-year increase** calculated at constant prices. Quarterly breakdown shows that the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP expanded by 1.2% in Q4.

China's GDP exceeded the 140-trillion-yuan threshold in 2025, fulfilling the annual growth target.

On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's full-year GDP in 2025 stood at 1,401,879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices.

In terms of quarterly performance, the GDP rose 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. Quarter-on-quarter, the GDP grew 1.2% in Q4.

Broken down by industry, the value-added of the **primary industry** reached 93,347 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year; the **secondary industry** hit 499,653 billion yuan, up 4.5%; and the **tertiary industry** amounted to 808,879 billion yuan, a rise of 5.4%.

## Bumper Grain Harvest and Steady Growth in Animal Husbandry

The national total grain output in 2025 reached 714.88 million tonnes, an increase of 8.38 million tonnes or 1.2% year-on-year. Specifically, summer grain output stood at 149.75 million tonnes, down 0.1%; early rice output reached 28.51 million tonnes, up 1.2%; and autumn grain output hit 536.62 million tonnes, up 1.5%. By variety, wheat output was 140.07 million tonnes, basically flat; corn output reached 301.24 million tonnes, up 2.1%; rice output hit 209.04 million tonnes, up 0.7%; and soybean output stood at 20.91 million tonnes, up 1.3%.

The full-year output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat totaled 100.72 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, exceeding 100 million tonnes for the first time. Among this, pork output reached 59.38 million tonnes, up 4.1%; beef output stood at 8.01 million tonnes, up 2.8%; mutton output hit 4.96 million tonnes, down 4.2%; and poultry meat output reached 28.37 million tonnes, up 6.7%. Milk output was 40.91 million tonnes, up 0.3%; and egg output stood at 34.98 million tonnes, down 2.5%. The number of live pigs slaughtered in the year reached 719.73 million head, up 2.4%; the year-end stock of live pigs was 429.67 million head, up 0.5%.

## Fast Growth in Industrial Production; Equipment and High-Tech Manufacturing Sectors Maintain Strong Momentum

The value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew by 5.9% year-on-year in 2025. By sector, the value-added of the mining industry rose 5.6%, manufacturing increased 6.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 2.3%. The value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry climbed 9.2%, and that of the high-tech manufacturing industry rose 9.4%, outpacing the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points respectively.

By economic type, the value-added of state-holding enterprises grew 4.6%; joint-stock enterprises increased 6.3%; enterprises with foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investment rose 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.3%. By product, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively.

In December, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.2% year-on-year and 0.49% month-on-month. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the Enterprise Production and Operation Activity Expectation Index stood at 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points. From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 6,626.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%.

## Steady Growth in the Service Sector; Modern Service Industry Develops Well

The value-added of the service sector grew by 5.4% year-on-year in 2025. Among its sub-sectors, the value-added of information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 11.1%; leasing and business services by 10.3%; transportation, warehousing, and postal services by 5.2%; wholesale and retail trade by 5.0%; and accommodation and catering services by 4.9%.

In December, the service industry production index rose 5.0% year-on-year. Among this, the production indices of information transmission, software, and information technology services, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively. From January to November, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size grew by 7.8% year-on-year.

In December, the Business Activity Index for the service sector was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Business Activity Expectation Index stood at 56.4%, up 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the Business Activity Indices of sectors such as telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and capital market services all stayed above 60.0%, indicating a high boom level.

## Expanding Market Sales Scale; Fast Growth in Service Retail

The total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide reached 501,202 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. By location of business, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 432,972 billion yuan, up 3.6%; rural retail sales stood at 68,230 billion yuan, up 4.1%. By consumption type, retail sales of goods reached 443,220 billion yuan, up 3.8%; catering revenue hit 57,982 billion yuan, up 3.2%.

Basic living goods and some upgraded consumer goods maintained sound growth momentum. In 2025, the retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, sports and recreational articles, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, and grain, oil, and food by enterprises above designated size increased by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively.

The national online retail sales reached 159,722 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Among this, online retail sales of physical goods stood at 130,923 billion yuan, up 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 0.9% year-on-year and decreased 0.12% month-on-month. The full-year service retail sales rose 5.5% year-on-year, with rapid growth registered in cultural, sports, and leisure services, communication and information services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services.

## Year-on-Year Decline in Fixed Asset Investment; Manufacturing Investment Remains Positive

The national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 485,186 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed asset investment fell by 0.5%. By sector, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment dropped by 17.2%.

The national sales area of newly-built commercial residential buildings reached 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7%; the sales volume of newly-built commercial residential buildings hit 8,393.7 billion yuan, down 12.6%. By industry, investment in the primary industry increased by 2.3%, investment in the secondary industry rose by 2.5%, and investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 7.4%. Private investment fell by 6.4%; excluding real estate development investment, private investment dropped by 1.9%.

In the high-tech industry, investment in information services and the aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 28.4% and 16.9% respectively. In December, the fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month-on-month.

## Steady Growth in Goods Trade; Continuous Optimization of Trade Structure

The total value of goods imports and exports nationwide reached 454,687 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Among this, exports reached 269,892 billion yuan, up 6.1%; imports stood at 184,795 billion yuan, up 0.5%. The import and export volume of private enterprises grew by 7.1%, accounting for 57.3% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year.

Imports and exports with countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 6.3%, accounting for 51.9% of the total import and export volume. Exports of high-tech products rose by 13.2%. In December, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 4,263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among this, exports hit 2,535.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%; imports stood at 1,727.1 billion yuan, up 4.4%.

## Generally Stable Consumer Prices; Core CPI Picks Up Moderately

The national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in 2025. By category, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.7%; clothing prices increased by 1.5%; residence prices rose by 0.1%; prices of household articles and services went up by 0.9%; transportation and communication prices dropped by 2.6%; education, culture, and recreation prices increased by 0.8%; medical care prices rose by 0.8%; and prices of other articles and services went up by 9.3%.

Among food, tobacco, and alcohol prices, pork prices decreased by 6.1%; fresh vegetable prices dropped by 3.9%; grain prices fell by 1.0%; and fresh fruit prices increased by 1.2%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous year. In December, the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.2% month-on-month.

The producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025; in December, it fell by 1.9% year-on-year and rose by 0.2% month-on-month. The purchasing price index for industrial products decreased by 3.0% year-on-year in 2025; in December, it dropped by 2.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month.

## Generally Stable Employment Situation; Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Remains Steady

The average urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide stood at 5.2% in 2025. In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%. The surveyed unemployment rate of local household registered labor force was 5.3%; that of non-local household registered labor force was 4.7%, among which the surveyed unemployment rate of non-local agricultural household registered labor force was 4.4%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%. The average weekly working hours of employed persons in enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours.

The total number of migrant workers in 2025 reached 301.15 million, an increase of 1.42 million or 0.5% year-on-year. Among this, local migrant workers numbered 121.09 million, up 0.1%; and migrant workers away from their hometown reached 180.06 million, up 0.8%.

## Sustained Growth in Residents' Income; Rural Residents' Income Grows Faster Than Urban Counterparts

The per capita disposable income of national residents reached 43,377 yuan in 2025, a nominal increase of 5.0% year-on-year, or a real increase of 5.0% after deducting price factors. By place of residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 56,502 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.3% year-on-year, or a real increase of 4.2%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 24,456 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.8% year-on-year, or a real increase of 6.0%.

The median per capita disposable income of national residents was 36,231 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Grouped by income quintile, the per capita disposable income of the low-income group was 10,150 yuan; the lower-middle-income group 22,702 yuan; the middle-income group 35,536 yuan; the upper-middle-income group 55,586 yuan; and the high-income group 103,778 yuan.

The per capita consumption expenditure of national residents in 2025 was 29,476 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4% year-on-year, or a real increase of 4.4% after deducting price factors. The Engel's coefficient, which refers to the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure on food, tobacco, and alcohol in the total per capita consumption expenditure, stood at 29.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points over the previous year. The per capita expenditure on service consumption of national residents increased by 4.5%, accounting for 46.1% of the total per capita consumption expenditure, the same as the previous year.

## Slight Decrease in Total Population; Continuous Improvement in Urbanization Rate

At the end of 2025, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, and active military personnel, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan residents, and foreigners residing in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government) was 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million from the end of the previous year.

The number of births in the year was 7.92 million, with a birth rate of 5.63‰; the number of deaths was 11.31 million, with a mortality rate of 8.04‰; and the natural population growth rate was -2.41‰. By gender, the male population was 716.85 million and the female population was 688.04 million, with a sex ratio of 104.19 (with females as 100).

By age, the population aged 16-59 was 851.36 million, accounting for 60.6% of the national population; the population aged 60 and above was 323.38 million, accounting for 23.0% of the national population, among which the population aged 65 and above was 223.65 million, accounting for 15.9% of the national population.

By urban-rural classification, the urban permanent resident population was 953.80 million, an increase of 10.30 million over the end of the previous year; the rural permanent resident population was 451.09 million, a decrease of 13.69 million; the urbanization rate, i.e., the proportion of urban permanent resident population in the national population, was 67.89%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points over the end of the previous year.

By education level, the average number of years of education received by the population aged 16-59 reached 11.3 years, an increase of 0.1 years over the previous year.

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