Tensions in the Middle East have recently escalated sharply. The United States, Israel, and Iran hold sharply opposing positions and are on the brink of conflict, with the risk of regional military confrontation rising significantly, attracting widespread attention from the international community.
As of April 23, the U.S. military's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush has been spotted in the Indian Ocean, continuously advancing towards the Middle East, and the U.S. military's posture of deploying three aircraft carriers simultaneously in the Middle East is gradually taking shape. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump issued a tough warning on his social media platform, clearly stating that "time is counting down," with his remarks directly targeting Iran, further exacerbating the tense atmosphere in the region.
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Katz made a public statement, saying that Israel has made all preparations to restart the war with Iran and is currently only "waiting for the green light from the United States," and will take action once authorized by the U.S. side.
At the same time, Iran has also made a clear response. In response to potential military actions by the United States and its allies, it has formulated a detailed "reciprocal response" countermeasure plan, which includes a series of escalation options such as attacking energy facilities and blocking key straits to respond to possible military threats.
Currently, the United States continues to strengthen its military presence in the Middle East, Israel publicly declares its preparation for an offensive, and Iran lists countermeasures one by one. All three parties are engaging in a game with tough attitudes, constantly compressing the space for negotiations. Industry analysts believe that if the regional situation further escalates, the volatility of global energy prices, safe-haven assets, and region-related assets will face significant upward pressure.
Three Aircraft Carriers Approach, Trump Issues Countdown Warning
U.S. Central Command confirmed in a social media post on April 23 that the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush was sailing in the Indian Ocean within its area of responsibility that day. It is reported that the aircraft carrier strike group departed from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, USA, on March 31, sailed around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa to the Middle East, and the formation includes several destroyers, carrying a total of more than 5,000 officers and soldiers.
The area of responsibility of U.S. Central Command covers key Middle East waterways such as the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea. Currently, two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, have been deployed in the Red Sea and the northern Arabian Sea respectively. According to relevant media reports, the USS George H.W. Bush is likely to take over the deployment task of the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Middle East. During the handover period, it is expected that the U.S. military will form a deployment posture with three aircraft carriers—the George H.W. Bush, Gerald R. Ford, and Abraham Lincoln—simultaneously present in the Middle East, further upgrading the military deterrence.
On April 23, Trump once again denied rumors that he is eager to end military operations against Iran on social media, and clearly wrote: "I have plenty of time, but Iran does not—time is counting down!" This tough statement further strengthened market concerns about the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the rising risk of regional military conflict.
Israel: Goals Set, "Waiting for the U.S. Green Light"
After completing a situation assessment on April 23, Israeli Defense Minister Katz clearly stated that the Israel Defense Forces have made full preparations to restart the war with Iran, with both defensive and offensive goals determined. Currently, they are "waiting for the green light from the United States," and U.S. authorization will be the key prerequisite for Israel to take action.
Katz's statement was extremely tough. He clearly pointed out that once authorized by the United States, Israel will take two key actions: first, assassinate Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei; second, blow up Iran's energy and power facilities and destroy its economic infrastructure, reducing Iran "back to the dark ages and the Stone Age."
This statement is regarded as one of the most straightforward public declarations made by Israeli officials so far regarding military operations against Iran, fully indicating that Israel's preparations for military operations against Iran have entered a substantive stage, and the key variable for whether to take action depends entirely on the political decision-making in Washington, USA.
Iran: Lists "Reciprocal Response" Plan Item by Item
Given the setback in diplomatic solutions and "complete distrust" in the United States' negotiating sincerity, Iran has formulated a detailed countermeasure plan for potential military actions by the United States and its allies in accordance with the principles of "reciprocal response" and "offensive deterrence," clarifying countermeasures for different scenarios.
The countermeasure plan is detailed, covering multiple levels of escalation, with strong pertinence: if Iran's power plants are attacked, it will immediately counterattack with missiles and drones, targeting power plants of Israel and U.S. allies in the region; if Iran's oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, it will carry out precise strikes on the key oil and gas facilities of the relevant parties, aiming to reduce their daily oil production by 25 million barrels per day for as long as one year; if Iranian military and political officials are assassinated, it will directly attack the information technology and artificial intelligence centers of Israel and U.S. allies to implement reciprocal retaliation.
In the scenario of a higher-intensity conflict, the countermeasures will be further upgraded: if Iran's territorial sovereignty is violated, Iran will launch large-scale joint attacks with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against U.S. military aircraft carriers and armed helicopters; if the maritime blockade continues or escalates, Iran will resolutely block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and if necessary, completely block the Strait of Hormuz through large-scale mining, cutting off all oil export pipeline routes in the region. In addition, Iran stated that it does not rule out launching surprise attacks on U.S. interest targets outside the region.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.
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