Morning News

# Source: Wall Street Insights

## Market Overview

Geopolitical risks capped the upside momentum of US stocks. The S&P 500 narrowly notched a third consecutive gain but posted back-to-back weekly declines for the first time in seven months; the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a two-day winning streak. Goldman Sachs led the decline among components with a nearly 4% drop. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down more than 1%, dragged by Intel which plunged 17% following weak guidance, marking its biggest single-day drop in 17 months. In contrast, NVIDIA rose over 1% to extend gains for three straight sessions. For the full week, Meta surged more than 6%, while Apple fell nearly 3%, logging an eighth consecutive weekly decline—its longest such streak since May 2022.

French Prime Minister survived a no-confidence vote, pushing the yield spread between French and German government bonds to its lowest level in 18 months; US Treasury prices edged lower.

Amid soaring expectations of government intervention, the Japanese yen briefly broke below 159 against the US dollar intraday before staging a sharp rebound, surging as much as 1.75% to reclaim the 156 level, registering its largest single-day gain since August last year. The US Dollar Index declined for two consecutive days to hit a five-month low, tumbling 1.8% for the week—its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The offshore renminbi climbed over 100 pips intraday to breach the 6.95 mark, a more than two-year high. Cryptocurrencies fluctuated after an initial rally: Bitcoin reclaimed $91,000 before turning lower by nearly 2%, while Ethereum slid over 10% for the week.

Geopolitical risks fueled a rally in metals and a rebound in crude oil: Gold neared $5,000 with an intraday gain of over 1%, and silver surged past $100 for the first time in history, rising more than 7% intraday. Both gold and silver notched their largest weekly gains since 2020. LME Copper rebounded over 3% intraday to approach a record high; LME Tin closed up 9.5% to hit a new all-time high a week after its previous peak; LME Nickel advanced over 4%. Crude oil climbed over 3% intraday, extending gains for five consecutive weeks. A cold snap sent US natural gas prices soaring 70% for the week.

During the Asian trading session, A-shares and H-shares trended upward with fluctuations. Commercial aerospace and photovoltaic sectors witnessed a rally; lithium carbonate prices broke through the 180,000 yuan per ton threshold, and Shanghai Silver futures surged past 25,000 yuan per kilogram to a record high.

## Top News

New regulations on public fund performance benchmarks took effect: Fund managers whose performance lags behind the benchmark for a long period will face salary cuts, with a one-year transition period set in place.

Donald Trump stated that the US is deploying heavy troops to Iran and a large fleet is heading toward the country. His remarks amplified the metals rally, driving silver above $100 for the first time and gold close to $5,000—both logging their biggest weekly gains since 2020. The US Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Indian Ocean, with F-15E fighter jets and C-17 transport aircraft being assembled. Israel is also poised to launch strikes. Iran responded that any attack will be regarded as a "full-scale war", and its armed forces have entered a state of full alert. The Iranian military warned that it is "ready to pull the trigger at any moment".

It was revealed that the Trump administration is pressuring Iraq with sanctions to curb Iran's influence by restricting Iraqi oil sales, triggering a more than 3% intraday rise in crude oil prices. Reports indicate that the Trump administration is considering a full embargo on Cuba's oil imports.

The European Union announced a six-month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Reports said Trump demanded that Greenland fully lift military restrictions. Trump claimed that the US will obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base in Greenland is located, adding that relevant negotiations are "making smooth progress". US media commented that the Greenland dispute signals "US-Europe decoupling". Europe is preparing to respond to the "US technology blockade" by urgently advancing the strategies of "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud".

US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded in January but slightly missed expectations. The Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction pace slowing and France's reading hitting a 47-month high.

The announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee is "imminent". BlackRock's Larry Fink reportedly received positive feedback from bond market participants during consultations with the Trump administration, and his winning odds on prediction websites have climbed to the top spot.

Minnesota saw the second fatal shooting of a federal law enforcement officer in two weeks. The risk of a US government shutdown at the end of this month has "risen sharply".

Winter storms in the US have left over 1 million users without power.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with one board member voting in favor of a rate hike. BOJ Governor stated that if the economy evolves as expected, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates and conduct bond operations flexibly under special circumstances.

The yen staged a sharp intraday rebound, sparking speculation of official intervention, but Japan's Finance Minister refused to confirm, stating that the government is "maintaining close and vigilant monitoring". Markets guess that a joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market is imminent, with traders reporting that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has queried financial institutions about the yen exchange rate. Sanae Takaichi sent a signal that the government will take all necessary measures to address speculative and extremely abnormal fluctuations.

The first trilateral talks involving Russia, the US and Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the US presidential envoy described the talks as "constructive". Reports noted progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial matters. The US side said the trilateral talks are scheduled to continue in the UAE next week.

Trump threatened to impose a "100% tariff" on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a deal with relevant countries. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called on the public to "buy domestic products".

A departing senior executive, acting as a whistleblower, revealed that "innovation has become difficult" at OpenAI. OpenAI stated that it may charge a commission on future AI-generated revenues, sparking significant controversy. OpenAI CEO announced that the launch month of Codex is approaching, and the official technical blog has revealed details about the agent loop in advance.

A severe shortage of memory chips has triggered a price surge. Following a 70% hike in DRAM prices, South Korean media reported that Samsung Electronics will raise NAND flash memory prices by 100% in Q1.

## Market Closing Quotes

### European and US Stock Markets

- S&P 500: +0.03% to 6,915.61 points; weekly decline: 0.35%

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.58% to 49,098.71 points; weekly decline: 0.53%

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.28% to 23,501.244 points; weekly decline: 0.06%

- Europe STOXX 600 Index: -0.09% to 608.34 points; weekly decline: 0.98%

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: +0.33% to 4,136.16 points

- Shenzhen Component Index: +0.79% to 14,439.66 points

- ChiNext Index: +0.63% to 3,349.50 points

### Bond Market

At the close of the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury note stood at around 4.23%, down about 1 basis point intraday and up approximately 1 basis point for the week. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury note was around 3.59%, falling about 2 basis points intraday and remaining flat for the week.

### Commodities

- COMEX February Gold Futures: +1.35% to $4,979.7 per ounce; weekly gain: about 8.4%

- COMEX March Silver Futures: +5.1% to $101.333 per ounce; weekly gain: about 11.4%

- LME Copper: +2.8% to $13,115 per ton; weekly gain: about 2.4%

- LME Tin: +9.5% to $56,816 per ton; weekly gain: about 18.4%

# Detailed Top News

## Global Highlights

**New regulations on public fund performance benchmarks take effect**: Fund managers whose performance lags behind the benchmark for an extended period will face salary cuts, with a one-year transition period in place. The new rules clearly stipulate a one-year transition period for adjusting the benchmarks of existing products. The regulations focus on four key areas:

1.  **Precise profiling**: Highlighting the benchmark's role as a "reference framework" for products.

2.  **Full-process supervision**: Strengthening the benchmark's binding effect on investments.

3.  **Salary linkage**: Leveraging the benchmark's guiding role in performance assessments.

4.  **Information transparency**: Enhancing external oversight of benchmarks.

This reform directly addresses longstanding industry pain points such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes", helping optimize the market ecosystem for "long-term capital and long-term investment".

**Metals rally hits a fever pitch**: Silver breaks above $100 for the first time, gold nears $5,000, both logging their largest weekly gains since 2020. Intraday, silver futures surged over 7%, gold climbed more than 1%, platinum and palladium futures rose about 7% and over 7% respectively, LME copper advanced over 3%, while LME nickel and tin closed up more than 4% and 9.5% respectively. Donald Trump's remarks that the US is deploying heavy troops and warships to Iran were cited as a key driver behind Friday's metal price surge. The "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) sentiment also boosted gold and silver prices. Additionally, silver is supported by robust industrial demand and Chinese buying, while gold serves as a hedge against Trump policy uncertainties. Supply disruptions at Chile's Mantoverde copper-gold mine and a weaker US dollar further fueled the rebound in LME copper prices.

**No longer the "poor man's gold"**: Silver is stepping into the spotlight amid evolving industrial needs. The underlying logic of this rally has fundamentally shifted as industrial chains begin to recognize silver as a **critical material** rather than a speculative asset. Demand from the photovoltaic sector alone now accounts for 17% of global silver consumption, with its irreplaceability growing significantly in electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and other fields. However, 70% of global silver supply comes as a by-product, resulting in extremely rigid supply constraints. This marks the first time silver has simultaneously met three key conditions: large-scale demand, high irreplaceability, and limited supply, laying the groundwork for a structural shortage.

The US Navy's **USS Abraham Lincoln** carrier strike group has arrived in the Indian Ocean, with F-15E fighter jets and C-17 transport aircraft being assembled. Israel is also poised to launch strikes. Iran stated it is fully prepared for the worst-case scenario. According to Friday reports, senior Iranian officials emphasized that any attack will be regarded as a "full-scale war against us". As the US deploys heavy forces to Iran, the Iranian military warned it is "ready to pull the trigger at any moment", adding that its armed forces have entered a state of full alert.

**Deploying troops to Iran is not enough**: Trump is reported to have pressured Iraq with oil sanctions threats, triggering a more than 3% intraday jump in crude oil prices. Media outlets noted that the US Chargé d'Affaires in Baghdad has repeatedly warned Iraqi political leaders over the past two months that punitive measures—including restricting dollar cash access from Iraqi oil sales—will be imposed if Iran-backed militias are included in the new government. A US Navy carrier strike group is sailing toward the Middle East; the USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying vessels transited the Malacca Strait two days ago and have now entered the Indian Ocean.

**US media**: The Trump administration is considering a full embargo on Cuba's oil imports. The plan has the support of Secretary of State Rubio but has not yet been finalized. Internal divisions persist within the administration, with opponents warning of a potential humanitarian crisis. The US is also attempting to recruit "insiders" within the Cuban government, aiming to overthrow the Cuban regime by the end of the year. Previously, Trump has repeatedly threatened Cuba, stating that it will face "zero oil, zero funds" if no agreement is reached.

**EU announces 6-month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US**: The European Commission announced on January 23 that it will propose extending the suspension of €93 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another six months. The move comes after the US withdrew its earlier tariff threats against eight European countries over the Greenland issue. An EU spokesperson emphasized that while the measures are suspended, they can be reinstated at any time, indicating that the EU retains necessary countermeasures while advancing the implementation of the joint statement with the US.

**Report**: Trump demands Greenland fully lift military restrictions. Reports suggest the US is seeking to revise its defense agreement with Denmark to remove all restrictions on military operations in Greenland, aiming to achieve permanent and full military access. In exchange, Trump has pledged not to impose tariffs on Europe. The official stance remains open to expanding cooperation, attempting to strike a precarious balance between territorial sovereignty and economic security.

**Trump claims US will gain "sovereignty" over areas hosting US military bases in Greenland**: According to Saturday reports, Trump stated that relevant negotiations are "progressing smoothly" and "we will get everything we want". It is understood that this does not involve a full US takeover of Greenland, but rather making US military facilities—including the Pituffik Space Base—subject to US sovereign control. Greenland has explicitly opposed the move, calling the sovereignty issue a "non-negotiable red line".

**US media**: The Greenland dispute signals "US-Europe decoupling"; Europe prepares to counter "US technology blockade". Reports outline Europe's specific response measures: to defend against potential "US technology blockades", Europe is urgently advancing strategies for **technological sovereignty** and **sovereign cloud**, aiming to reduce reliance on US tech giants that dominate 83% of its market. This fundamental shift not only threatens the European revenues of US companies but could also profoundly reshape the future landscape of transatlantic digital trade.

**US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expand in January but slightly miss expectations**: The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged higher than December's reading, while the Services PMI remained flat month-on-month, though both fell short of forecasts marginally. US business activity maintained growth in January, but the pace was noticeably weaker compared to the expansion rates typically seen in the second half of 2025. Manufacturing growth accelerated and outpaced services, but underlying order growth has slowed recently in both sectors.

**Nomination of new Fed Chair imminent; Riedel surges to top of betting odds**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Fed Chair nominee could be announced as early as this week. Media reports note that BlackRock executive Riedel has caught Trump's attention with his central banker-like demeanor and a series of proposals to reform the Federal Reserve. Riedel received positive feedback from bond market participants when the Trump administration solicited opinions on the candidate list, with his lack of prior Fed experience viewed as an advantage. Prediction websites show Riedel's winning odds have skyrocketed from 6% to 49%.

**Second "ICE shooting" in Minnesota; US government shutdown risk spikes at month-end**: On Saturday, Minnesota witnessed the second fatal shooting of a federal law enforcement officer in two weeks, igniting a congressional political impasse and sharply raising the risk of a US government shutdown at the end of the month. Several key Democratic senators have shifted their stance against funding the Department of Homeland Security in response to the Minnesota shootings, making it difficult to advance spending bills to avoid a shutdown. The probability of a government shutdown has now soared to 75%, posing a severe test to fiscal stability.

**Winter storms leave over 1 million US customers without power**: According to CCTV News, as of Sunday, January 25 local time, intense winter storms swept across the eastern and southern US, bringing heavy snow and freezing weather, cutting power to more than 1 million customers nationwide. Over 10,000 flights were canceled on the day, with the impact extending westward as far as New Mexico.

**Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rises to 49.4**: German contraction slows, French reading hits 47-month high. Eurozone economic activity continued to expand in January but with marginal loss of momentum; the Composite PMI held steady at 51.5, below the expected 51.9. While the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.4, it remained in contraction territory, and service sector expansion also moderated. A divergence emerged between Germany and France: Germany's Composite PMI rose to 52.5, supported by the service sector; France's Composite PMI fell to 48.6 due to a sharp slowdown in services, though its manufacturing PMI hit a near four-year high.

**Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged; one board member votes for hike**: BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economy evolves as expected, the central bank will continue raising interest rates and conduct bond operations flexibly under special circumstances. **Yen breaks above 158!**

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Friday, in line with market expectations, but raised its medium-to-long-term inflation forecasts. The rate decision was approved by an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata advocating for a rate hike to 1.0%, arguing that the price stability target has been largely achieved.

Kazuo Ueda noted that the central bank is monitoring price developments in April, but this is only one factor in determining policy. He added that long-term interest rates are rising quite rapidly, and the BOJ will conduct bond operations flexibly under special circumstances, possibly taking actions to encourage the stable formation of yields.

**Yen stages sharp rebound! Market suspects official intervention; Japan's Finance Minister declines confirmation**: "Maintaining close and vigilant monitoring". The yen experienced extreme volatility—falling first then surging—after Kazuo Ueda's press conference, climbing as high as 157.37, triggering strong market speculation of "exchange rate checks" or direct intervention by authorities. In response to questions about official moves to support the yen, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment directly. Coupled with fiscal expansion pressure ahead of the general election, markets are on high alert for the yen's performance at key levels and official actions next week.

**Largest gain since August last year! Yen surges twice in one day; market speculates US-Japan joint FX intervention is imminent**: During Friday's European equity session, USD/JPY broke below 159, approaching the 160 level—the "red line" that prompted Japanese government intervention in 2024—before staging a sudden rally, with gains widening to as much as 1.75% during US trading hours. The market suspected that Japan's Ministry of Finance conducted exchange rate checks. Later, media cited traders reporting that the yen's jump coincided with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York calling financial institutions to inquire about yen exchange rates, which Wall Street interpreted as a sign that the Fed is preparing to assist Japanese officials in directly intervening in the market to support the yen.

**Sanae Takaichi sends signal; US-Japan joint market intervention "on the verge"?** Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issued a stern warning against financial market speculation on Sunday, stating that while the prime minister should not comment on market-determined matters, the government "will take all necessary measures to address speculative and extremely abnormal fluctuations". She did not specifically mention bond yields or exchange rates, but the statement—coming amid rising Japanese bond yields and sustained pressure on the yen—has strengthened market expectations of official intervention.

**Territorial issues remain intractable; first Russia-US-Ukraine trilateral talks since Russia-Ukraine conflict held in UAE**: Reports cited European diplomats analyzing that territorial issues are the key sticking point. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at Davos that he is open to negotiations but emphasized that both sides need to make compromises. Zelenskyy said on Friday that the focus of the trilateral talks is on specific conditions to end the conflict. Trump warned Zelenskyy that "Ukraine may lose more territory if it does not agree to a peace deal with Russia".

After the two-day talks, Zelenskyy described the trilateral negotiations as "constructive". The US side proposed a "possible framework" for ending the war and the necessary security conditions. All parties agreed to report on various aspects of the talks to their respective leaders and coordinate next steps upon returning home.

**Russian Deputy Foreign Minister**: Russia adheres to the Anchorage Consensus in Ukraine negotiations.

**Details of the first Russia-US-Ukraine trilateral talks revealed**: Progress on military issues, no consensus on territorial matters. Media reports indicated that on military issues, Russia initially opposed the involvement of NATO, the OSCE, and European countries supporting Ukraine in the supervision mechanism, but agreed to a tripartite framework involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US after discussions. On the political front, Ukraine insisted that territorial issues should be discussed at least based on the current contact line, while Russia continued to demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from unoccupied areas of the Donetsk region.

**US Presidential Envoy**: New round of Russia-US-Ukraine trilateral talks scheduled to be held in Abu Dhabi next week. Wittkopf stated that the Russia-US-Ukraine trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24 were "very constructive", and the three parties plan to continue consultations in Abu Dhabi next week.

**Trump threatens "100% tariffs"; Canadian Prime Minister Carney urges public to "buy domestic"**: Trump posted a threat on social media on Saturday, stating that if Canada reaches an "agreement" with relevant countries, the US will impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods entering the US. Carney will push for the implementation of a "buy domestic" policy, noting that "we cannot control the actions of other countries, but we can be our own best customers. We will buy Canadian products and build our country with Canadian products".

**Departing executive whistleblower reveals "innovation has become difficult" at OpenAI**: Jerry Tworek, former VP of Research at OpenAI, revealed in a recent interview that as the company expands in size and industry competition intensifies, OpenAI is trapped in a "structural innovation dilemma" and can no longer undertake truly high-risk cutting-edge research. He pointed out that the technical paths of all leading AI companies are now highly convergent, suppressing research diversity. Tworek emphasized that achieving AGI still requires breakthroughs in key bottlenecks such as architectural innovation and continuous learning, and large companies often struggle to "focus resources on major initiatives" due to resource dispersion and risk aversion.

**OpenAI**: We may take a cut of profits from AI-generated revenues. OpenAI's CFO proposed a new "value-sharing" business model at the Davos Forum, stating that in addition to charging API usage fees, the company plans to take a profit share from customer revenues generated by AI (such as successful new drug development). The move has sparked significant controversy, with critics arguing it upends the traditional tool payment model, and OpenAI itself is facing allegations over the copyright of its training data.

**OpenAI CEO previews upcoming Codex launch month; official technical blog reveals Agent Loop in advance**: The technical blog provided an in-depth look at the core architecture of the Codex CLI—the **Agent Loop**. Combined with the systematic disclosure of Codex's agent loop, tool calling, and security mechanisms, the market expects OpenAI to transform Codex from a single programming tool into a more mature software agent platform, which may become a key driver of its next-phase productization and commercialization.

**Severe memory shortage triggers price surge**: South Korean media reports Samsung Electronics to hike Q1 NAND prices by 100%, following a 70% increase in DRAM prices. According to reports, Samsung Electronics completed supply contract negotiations with major customers at the end of last year, raising the supply price of NAND flash memory by over 100% in the first quarter of this year—a far steeper increase than market expectations. Reports added that Samsung Electronics has already initiated a new round of negotiations with customers on Q2 NAND prices, with the market widely expecting the price uptrend to continue in the second quarter.

**Behind SanDisk's skyrocketing stock price**: Three catalysts converge, NAND becomes a "necessity", AI revalues memory sector. Jensen Huang ignited the first spark by systematically proposing the concept of ICMS and making a clear judgment: context is emerging as the new bottleneck in AI, rather than computing power itself, creating entirely new application scenarios for NAND. DeepSeek Engram validated the feasibility of NAND as "slow memory" at the model level, while ClaudeCode amplified rigid demand for long-term storage at the application level.

**10x surge in 5 months! SanDisk transforms from "USB drive has-been" to "AI darling"**: The core logic lies in the surge in AI interactions making storage the new bottleneck, driving NAND prices up by over 300%, which has brought huge "operating leverage" to SanDisk—price increases are directly converted into profits. The market expects AI-driven storage demand to be sustainable, with the supply-demand imbalance set to continue in 2026, and its scarcity value is being systematically revalued.

## Selected Research Reports

**From 4 weeks to a few days: Wall Street deciphers "TACO", Trump policy trial period shortens significantly**: Wall Street has fully embedded the "TACO" logic, with its reaction cycle to Trump policy threats shrinking from weeks to days. After the Greenland tariff dispute wiped out trillions of dollars in US stock market value in a single day, pressure forced Trump to back down quickly, highlighting the high sensitivity of his decision-making to stock market volatility. Analysts warn of the "boiling frog" risk, and investors are hedging against potential extreme policy shocks by increasing holdings of assets such as gold.

**The "Fundamental Triffin Dilemma" and the rise and fall of the global dollar cycle**: BOCOM International Securities argues that the US's introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" can be seen as a policy measure to restrain the global dollar cycle, reflecting the US government's choice to consolidate US hegemony at the expense of dollar hegemony when facing the "Fundamental Triffin Dilemma". In this sense, "reciprocal tariffs" mark a symbolic turning point in the global dollar cycle from prosperity to decline. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, as well as the strengthening of gold prices following the policy launch, are all manifestations of the reversal of the global dollar cycle.

**Is the wolf really at the door? Quantum computing threat to Bitcoin "no longer theoretical"**: Analyst: 20-50% of Bitcoin at "security risk". David Duong, Head of Global Investment Research at Coinbase, warned that approximately 32.7% of Bitcoin supply—equivalent to around 6.51 million BTC—is at risk of potential quantum computing attacks. Quantum computers operate at speeds far exceeding traditional computers and may eventually crack the encryption algorithms protecting Bitcoin wallets. The most radical analysis suggests the threat could become a reality within approximately five years.

**TrendForce**: AI triggers "fundamental transformation"; memory industry revenue surge to continue until 2027. TrendForce pointed out that AI innovation has made memory chips a critical component of AI infrastructure. TrendForce forecasts that the global memory market size will surge from $551.6 billion in 2026 to $842.7 billion in 2027, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with DRAM demand growing significantly faster than NAND flash memory.

**Commercial rockets enter critical validation window**: Engines determine the depth of space exploration, 3D printing is the core of cost reduction! Guojin Securities believes that the key to industry competition lies in crossing the profitability threshold of "2.8-ton payload to 800-kilometer orbit". This is essentially a contest of upstream hard technology: **engines** (full-flow staged combustion cycle) determine the upper limit of payload capacity and serve as the cornerstone of performance; **3D printing** (reducing production cycles by 80% and weight by over 50%) is the core of cost reduction. Together with material innovation, these two factors form the most certain investment themes.

# Domestic Macroeconomy

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has launched a stringent investigation into private equity firm Ruifengda, imposing a record-breaking "heaviest fine in history"! Over severe violations, Ruifengda was slapped with a fine of over 41 million yuan by the CSRC, and its actual controller received a lifetime ban from the securities market. This signals the regulator's "zero tolerance" stance, establishing a three-dimensional accountability system integrating "self-regulation + administrative penalties + criminal liability". By leveraging the "dual punishment system", it curbs industry irregularities at the source and promotes the compliant development of the private equity sector with a high-pressure posture.

# Domestic Companies

**AMEC** expects its 2025 net profit to increase by approximately 28.74% to 34.93% year-on-year, with revenue driven by etching and thin film equipment surging more than 36%. AMEC delivered a strong performance in 2025, with projected revenue jumping over 36% to 12.385 billion yuan. The core growth driver stems from rising sales of etching and thin film equipment, among which thin film equipment sales skyrocketed by 224%. The company achieved this growth at the cost of massive R&D investment accounting for over 30% of its revenue, aiming to accelerate the filling of gaps in the domestic supply chain and consolidate its long-term technological advantages.

**Verisilicon**, the leader in domestic custom chips: It expects its annual net loss to narrow by 25% year-on-year, with revenue rising 36% year-on-year, driven by AI computing power that doubled its orders. Verisilicon's 2025 performance forecast shows that the company's full-year revenue reached 3.153 billion yuan, up 35.8% year-on-year, and its net loss stood at 449 million yuan, narrowing by 25.29% compared with the same period last year. The performance growth is mainly fueled by the explosive growth in orders: the company secured new orders worth 5.96 billion yuan for the full year, doubling year-on-year, with over 70% coming from AI computing power. The order backlog at the end of the period reached 5.075 billion yuan, and the economies of scale in mass production businesses are gradually emerging.

**InnoLight** has topped the list of the most heavily held stocks by public funds, with AI hardware becoming the focus! Data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, public fund positions focused on the AI hardware track. InnoLight, the leader in optical modules, ranked first among the most heavily held stocks by active equity funds for the first time, followed by NeoPhotonics, both surpassing CATL and Tencent Holdings. Stocks such as InnoLight and NeoPhotonics have over 20% of their tradable shares locked up by funds, indicating significant concentration of shareholding. Electronics and power equipment have become the core of fund allocation, with the market value of holdings in the electronics industry accounting for 20%, ranking first.

**China Merchants Bank**, the "King of Retail Banking", released its 2025 performance express report, with revenue growth turning positive and net profit maintaining year-on-year growth.

**Bank of Hangzhou** released its 2025 performance express report: net profit exceeded 19 billion yuan, with non-performing loan ratio remaining at a low level.

**Bank of Nanjing**'s assets exceeded 3 trillion yuan: assets surged by 16%, and net interest income jumped by 30%.

**Everbright Securities** expects its net profit to increase by 21.92% last year, mainly benefiting from the sound development of China's economy and the rise of major stock indices.

# Overseas Macroeconomy

Betting on TACO, US stock retail investors made record bottom-hunting amid panic, with net purchases reaching nearly 13 billion US dollars in a single week. US stock retail investors precisely implemented the "TACO" strategy this week, making contrarian net purchases of 12.9 billion US dollars amid market panic, pushing their 21-day rolling purchase volume to break through the historical threshold of 45 billion US dollars for the first time. The capital allocation has shown a balanced trend: shifting from the previous focus on ETFs to equal emphasis on individual stocks and ETFs, with the technology sector and precious metal ETFs becoming key allocation targets.

**Bank of America**: In the week when Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs, 17 billion US dollars flowed out of US stocks. Trump's tariff threats triggered violent cross-market capital rotation: nearly 17 billion US dollars withdrew from US stocks in a single week, European equity funds saw the strongest six-week capital inflow since June, and Japanese funds recorded the largest single-week capital inflow since October.

Trump met with more than 100 global corporate CEOs at Davos, kept them waiting for an hour without providing chairs. Tech giants including Jensen Huang and Tim Cook waited anxiously. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, left before Trump's arrival due to a schedule conflict. Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, did not attend the reception. Trump delivered a 15-minute speech covering topics such as the US economy and praised the performance of executives like Tim Cook. He also said that "sometimes dictators are needed" and added that his governance style is "common sense".

The US launched the so-called "Peace Commission", with 18 countries including Hungary, Pakistan, Argentina, Indonesia and Mongolia having signed up! Trump's speech at Davos was met with widespread ridicule. The first meeting of the US-initiated "Peace Commission" was held in Davos, where Trump signed a charter with heads of state and representatives from 19 countries including Hungary. Western European countries with close ties to the US and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council did not participate. Trump's remarks at Davos sparked criticism and doubts from various parties, and his foreign policy is believed to may continue to impact the world order. Trump held talks with Zelenskyy and stated that the war must end. The US officially withdrew from the World Health Organization (WHO) and plans to withdraw from 66 international organizations in batches.

The Trump administration accelerated the approval of deep-sea mining to compete for critical minerals. The Trump administration significantly streamlined the deep-sea mining permit process on Wednesday, aiming to accelerate the extraction of critical metals such as copper and cobalt from the Pacific seabed and reduce dependence on non-US supplies. According to data from the US Geological Survey, the nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, located three miles below the Pacific Ocean surface and 500 miles southeast of Hawaii, contain nearly twice the nickel, 20% more manganese, more than three times the cobalt of known land reserves, as well as large amounts of copper.

Is "debanking" just the trigger? Trump sues Dimon for 5 billion US dollars, revealing a decade-long feud. Trump filed a lawsuit against Dimon claiming 5 billion US dollars in damages, making their decade-long feud public. From the brief "honeymoon" under the 2016 tax cut policy, to the public confrontation triggered by the dispute over "who is smarter" in 2018, and then to the complete break-up due to "debanking" after the Capitol riot. This lawsuit is not only a dispute over political positions, but also Trump's legal revenge against the Wall Street elite, and the ally relationship between the two has completely collapsed.

A leading historian: Trump's "open grab for Greenland" is a cover to "advance his agenda on Iran and Ukraine". Historian Niall Ferguson proposed that Trump's hype about "buying Greenland" may be a "strategic feint". Its purpose is to divert Europe's attention, allowing the US to advance radical policies on Iran (military deployment) and Ukraine (secret peace talks) without interference from allies. This move intends to marginalize Europe's diplomatic influence.

Trump's "midterm economic stimulus": A massive tax refund is coming, with an average amount of up to 3,500 US dollars. Morgan Stanley pointed out that due to the implementation of the retroactive tax cut policy, US consumers will receive a total of about 350 billion US dollars in tax refunds in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year surge of 20%. This "cash windfall" will boost consumption in the short term, but since it mainly flows to middle-to-high income and elderly groups (who have lower consumption willingness), its actual pull on economic growth is limited, and it is difficult to offset the structural pressure brought by high tariffs and weak imports.

# Overseas Companies

With the warming of relations with Trump, is Elon Musk set to return to the US political arena? Musk is investing heavily to "return" to US politics. After the improvement of relations with Trump, the two sides are forming a "pragmatic cooperative relationship": Musk has donated at least 10 million US dollars to Republican candidates. At the same time, his business empire is facing new variables: SpaceX is preparing to go public this year, and Musk's deep binding with the Trump administration may bring new opportunities or risks in terms of regulation and government contracts.

**Samsung** accelerates the design of customized HBM4E, expected to be completed by mid-2026, with SK Hynix and Micron following suit simultaneously. The competition in HBM is rapidly shifting towards in-depth customization. Samsung plans to complete the design of customized HBM4E by mid-2026 and adopt its self-developed 2nm process to seek breakthroughs; while SK Hynix and Micron choose to rely heavily on TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes for cooperation. This indicates that the key to winning the next generation of AI computing power will depend on each company's technical path and alliance strength in advanced packaging and manufacturing processes (such as 2nm/3nm).

**Intel** conference call: CPU demand surges but orders cannot be fulfilled, CEO admits inventory depletion and unmet yield targets, "I am disappointed that we cannot meet the demand". Intel's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, but weak Q1 guidance led to a sharp drop in its stock price. CEO Pat Gelsinger admitted, "I am disappointed that we cannot fully meet the market demand". Despite strong AI demand, especially the key role of CPUs in AI inference and orchestration driving a surge in orders from hyperscale cloud vendors, the company is facing severe supply bottlenecks, with buffer inventory exhausted, "having orders but no goods", and manufacturing yields failing to meet internal standards.

In just half an hour, did Claude Code "end" NVIDIA's "strongest moat"? On January 22, a user disclosed on the social platform Reddit that he used Claude Code to port the entire CUDA backend to AMD's ROCm platform. However, industry insiders pointed out that this achievement may only be applicable to relatively simple kernel code. For code libraries that require in-depth hardware optimization and complex contexts, the porting capability of AI tools still faces significant limitations.

**OpenAI** and **Amazon** are considering changing the training method of large models. The AI research paradigm may be on the verge of fundamental transformation: experts advocate abandoning the general model of "pre-training first, then fine-tuning", and shifting to introducing selected data for specific targets (such as code, customer service) early in the training process. If this path becomes popular, AI development will shift from building "all-purpose models" to creating multiple "specialized models" from scratch, which will reshape the industry ecology and team structure accordingly.

**Tsingshan Group**: The world's "top nickel ore and stainless steel producer" expands into aluminum and battery industries. Bank of America stated that Tsingshan Group is rapidly expanding its business territory into the aluminum and new energy battery sectors relying on its mature park model in Indonesia. The group not only cooperates with Xinfengfa Group to promote the construction of million-ton-level aluminum production capacity, but also its subsidiary Rept Batts has ranked among the top 10 in global battery installations. Meanwhile, Tsingshan continues to consolidate its dominant position in the core fields of nickel and stainless steel through measures such as acquiring POSCO's assets, building a full-industry-chain empire.

**Google DeepMind** CEO: AI investment is increasingly like a "bubble", but "even if the bubble bursts, we will be fine". Demis Hassabis warned that AI investment has shown signs of "bubblization", with the valuations of some startups seriously deviating from product and commercial fundamentals, and the market may face a correction. However, he firmly believes that Google, with its strong business foundation and technological moat, is fully capable of withstanding potential volatility. He also revealed that demand for its latest model Gemini 3 is strong, and emphasized that the company will continue to focus on the safe and responsible development of AI.

# Industry/Concepts

1.  **Non-ferrous Metals** | A weaker US dollar boosted the strong performance of the metal market, with both gold and silver hitting new all-time highs. The Metals Research Team of Southwest Securities recommends focusing on four main lines: First, denominator expansion: the medium-to-long-term bullish outlook for gold is relatively consistent; grasp the trading rhythm, focusing mainly on expectations of Fed rate cuts and marginal changes in trade. The high gold-silver ratio has brought strong upward momentum for silver, and silver targets should also be a key focus. Second, numerator improvement: the decline in alumina prices in 2025 has significantly improved the unit profit of electrolytic aluminum; ton-aluminum profit is expected to remain at a high level, but we should also be wary of price retracements caused by short-term weak demand, which applies to both copper and aluminum. Third, critical advantageous minerals such as rare earths: sectors such as rare earths, antimony and tungsten may perform better. Fourth, supply-side disturbance opportunities brought by anti-involution: the lithium carbonate sector is experiencing a cyclical reversal.

2.  **Commercial Aerospace** | On January 23, the 3rd Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference was held in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (Beijing Yizhuang), with the theme of "Gathering Strength for Innovation, Moving Towards Aerospace with High Quality". The Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and Zhongguancun Administrative Committee awarded plaques to 7 Beijing Key Laboratories, including the Beijing Key Laboratory of Low-Earth Orbit Constellation Integrated Communication and Networking Technology, and the Beijing Key Laboratory of Satellite Communication, Navigation, Remote Sensing and Computing Application Technology for New Power Systems. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology issued the *Several Measures of Beijing Municipality on Promoting the Development and Utilization of Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Data Resources (2026-2030)*.

3.  **Wind Power** | Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, predicted at the 2026 China Wind Energy Spring Tea Party on the 24th that China's newly installed wind power capacity will reach about 120 GW in 2026. Qin Haiyan also stated that the integration of computing power and green power is an inevitable trend, and data centers will have huge power demand in the future. The number of data centers in China exceeded 9 million racks in 2025, and will exceed 33 million racks by 2030. The new annual power consumption in the next 5 years will exceed 380 billion kWh, requiring power generation from 175 GW of wind power installed capacity.

4.  **NAND** | According to the Securities Times, Samsung Electronics raised the supply price of NAND flash memory by more than 100% in the first quarter of this year, a far steeper increase than previously expected by the market, highlighting the severe supply-demand imbalance in the current semiconductor market. This is another major price adjustment signal in the memory market following the reported nearly 70% increase in DRAM memory prices.

Data from market research institution TrendForce shows that NAND prices rose by about 33% to 38% month-on-month in the fourth quarter of 2025. The market originally expected a similar increase in the first quarter of 2026, but the actual supply price far exceeded expectations. The fundamental reason for the sharp rise in NAND prices is the supply-demand imbalance. On the one hand, increased investment in AI infrastructure has led to significant growth in demand for enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs). Coupled with the accelerated adoption of high-performance, large-capacity storage solutions in mobile devices and PCs, the "edge AI" trend has further amplified demand for high-specification storage. On the other hand, there has been no large-scale expansion of NAND flash memory production in the past year. Restricted by factors such as process conversion, the overall supply volume has not increased significantly. Samsung Electronics has also been relatively cautious in NAND investment, limiting the expansion of shipments. The industry expects NAND prices to continue their upward trend in the second quarter, and Samsung Electronics has already initiated a new round of negotiations with customers on NAND prices for the second quarter.

5.  **Diamond** | According to People's Finance News, recently, a team from Xidian University and the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences successfully developed a high-performance single-crystal diamond radiation detector based on a composite electrode structure and aerospace-grade packaging materials. It has significantly improved electrode bonding reliability, radiation resistance and high-temperature operational stability, providing an innovative technical path to break through the performance bottlenecks of traditional detectors in deep space environments.

6.  **Logistics** | According to the China Communications News, the Ministry of Transport and seven other departments recently issued the *Action Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of Leading Transportation and Logistics Enterprises and Enhancing the Service Guarantee Capacity of Industrial and Supply Chains*. It supports leading transportation and logistics enterprises in expanding service networks, improving the ability of integrated transportation and logistics services across the entire chain, deepening the integrated development with industrial and supply chains, accelerating the digital and intelligent empowerment of transportation and logistics, and enhancing the safety and resilience of transportation and logistics. The plan aims to cultivate a number of cross-modal, integrated and professional comprehensive logistics integrators, providing strong support for accelerating the construction of a transportation power and serving the modern industrial system. By 2030, it strives to build about 100 comprehensive logistics integrators, including more than 10 leading transportation and logistics enterprises with global influence and international competitiveness, driving a significant improvement in the operational efficiency, safety and resilience of transportation and logistics.

7.  **Robots** | Recently, China Media Group (CMG) and Magic Atom jointly announced that Magic Atom has become the strategic partner of intelligent robots for CMG's *2026 Spring Festival Gala*. Magic Atom owns a variety of star robot products, including the Magic Bot series of humanoid robots and the Magic Dog series of quadruped robots. According to the introduction, Magic Bot can complete complex movements and has anthropomorphic social capabilities; Magic Dog can withstand extreme environments ranging from -20℃ to 55℃, and can navigate complex scenarios with precise positioning. Gu Shitao, co-founder of Magic Atom, revealed that the company is advancing its listing process on the fastest schedule.

# Today's News Preview

- The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology plans to hold the "Star Computing · Intelligent Connection" Space Computing Power Seminar.

- The Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong from the 26th to the 27th, with Paul Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR Government, scheduled to attend.

- The roadmap for the next three generations of GPU PU of Iluvatar CoreX will be unveiled.

- US durable goods orders for November.

- US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Federal Reserve Chair may be announced as early as the week of January 26.

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