Stuck "AI powered neck"! "Gas turbine giant" GE Vernova's stock price hit a new high, rising more than 500% since the beginning of 2024

# Yang Chen

AI data centers have triggered a surge in power demand, leaving GE Vernova’s gas turbine production capacity stretched thin and sparking a global “booking war.” Customers must pay non‑refundable deposits to secure delivery slots for 2030. The model of “reserve first, negotiate price later” highlights the strong bargaining power of sellers. The company’s share price has soared over 500% since its spin‑off. Wall Street has doubled its 2030 profit forecast to $17 billion, as the energy equipment giant enters a rare boom cycle.

As AI data centers drive up electricity demand, gas turbines have become a critical bottleneck piece of equipment. A supply crunch at turbine manufacturer GE Vernova has turned into a full‑scale booking war, with customers required to pay non‑refundable deposits four years in advance for 2030 delivery. The gas turbine industry is experiencing an extraordinary upcycle.

The company’s stock hit a record high on Monday, having risen more than 500% since being spun off from GE Aerospace in early 2024.

On Monday, Canadian power producer Maxim Power announced it had signed a reservation agreement with GE Vernova to “secure a manufacturing slot for a 7HA.02 gas turbine and generator set.” Under the deal, Maxim will pay a non‑refundable deposit in 2026, while the final price of the turbine will be negotiated later.

This model—paying a deposit to reserve capacity before setting the price—reflects the supplier’s dominant position in the market.

GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said on January 28 that the company’s backlog is expected to reach 100 gigawatts by the end of this year, with nearly all capacity for 2029 and 2030 sold out.

The supply‑demand imbalance is clearly reflected in the stock price. On Monday, GE Vernova rose 2.9% to close at $801.54, touching a 52‑week intraday high. The surge in power demand has also led Wall Street to sharply raise profit forecasts. Analysts now expect the company’s 2030 EBITDA to approach $17 billion, compared with around $9 billion just one year ago.

## Capacity Crunch: Backlog Nears Operational Limits

GE Vernova is facing an unprecedented capacity squeeze. As of the end of 2025, its gas power generation backlog stood at 83 gigawatts, while annual production capacity is only set to rise to 20 gigawatts this year. At this rate, existing orders already fill more than four years of production.

Booking and deposit systems are standard for GE Vernova, but it is selling out end‑of‑decade capacity faster than expected. The jump from 83 GW to a projected 100 GW by year‑end implies roughly 17 GW of new orders in 2026—equivalent to nearly a full year of output.

Earlier this month, Xcel signed a “milestone strategic alliance agreement” with GE Vernova that includes the purchase of five F‑class power turbines. Notably, these units were **not** included in the 83 GW backlog reported on January 28, showing new orders continue to pour in.

## AI Data Centers Drive Demand

The acceleration in power demand stems from power‑hungry AI data centers. Their need for stable, large‑scale electricity is fueling an expansion boom in traditional power infrastructure.

Gas turbines have become critical equipment for supporting AI infrastructure because they can provide stable baseload power. Unlike the intermittency of renewables, gas power delivers 24‑hour uninterrupted electricity—essential for data center operations.

Tight market conditions are widespread. Maxim Power’s willingness to lock in capacity four years early and pay a deposit underscores power producers’ fears of future shortages. Customers are shifting from waiting passively to actively securing manufacturing slots.

## Profit Forecasts Surge Higher

The supply‑demand imbalance is translating into pricing power. Stronger demand is likely to support higher prices and boost profitability. Wall Street has doubled its profit forecast for GE Vernova over the past year, with 2030 EBITDA seen reaching roughly $17 billion—up sharply from around $9 billion a year earlier.

The stock performance confirms market confidence. At Monday’s close, GE Vernova was up 2.87% on the day and 102% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat.

A dual beneficiary of the energy transition and AI infrastructure buildout, GE Vernova is in a rare boom cycle. When customers must pay deposits years in advance for future delivery, the supplier’s dominant position in the industrial chain is unmistakable.

Source: Wall Street News

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