How big is the impact of Zimbabwe’s suspension of lithium ore exports?

# Great Wall Securities — Xiong Kewei

Great Wall Securities believes that Zimbabwe is China’s second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports. The export ban will **disrupt domestic raw material supply in the short term**, push the global market into a supply shortage, and is expected to drive a **short-term structural rise in lithium carbonate prices**. Over the medium to long term, local processing will **lift the long-term rigid cost floor for lithium carbonate**.

## Event

According to SMM, on February 25, the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development of Zimbabwe issued an emergency statement announcing an **immediate suspension of all exports of lithium ore and lithium concentrate**.

### Two Key Points in the Statement

1. The ban applies **not only to new contracts but also to all minerals currently in transit**, until further notice.

2. Enterprises with existing lithium salt or lithium sulfate production capacity in Zimbabwe may still apply for lithium concentrate export licenses, and lithium sulfate exports are currently permitted.

The ban was originally scheduled for 2027. Its early implementation reflects the government’s urgency to accelerate **local value‑added processing**.

## Impact on Domestic Supply

1. **Zimbabwe’s role for China**: second-largest lithium concentrate supplier.

In 2025, China imported approximately 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, of which **1.204 million tons (15.5%) came from Zimbabwe**, equivalent to 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). It is the second-largest hard rock lithium source after Australia.

2. **Market shifting to shortage**.

Globally, we estimate 2026 lithium carbonate supply and demand at

**2.10 million tons vs. 2.04 million tons** (tight balance).

Including the ban impact, the full-year deficit could reach

**37,000–57,000 tons**.

## View: Short-term supply shock; long-term cost support higher

- **Short term**: Domestic supply will face disruption.

China’s lithium resource import dependence is around 60%. The sudden halt from Zimbabwe puts about **9% of China’s lithium salt raw material** at risk of shortage.

With inventories already low after destocking at the start of 2026, the ban will directly cause production cuts at some domestic lithium salt plants. Combined with expectations of front‑loaded export rush, we expect a **short-term structural price rally in lithium carbonate**.

- **Medium to long term**: Local processing implies higher costs for energy, sulfuric acid, logistics and supporting infrastructure, forming a **higher long-term rigid cost floor for lithium carbonate**.

Source: Great Wall Securities

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