Risk appetite rekindled, Japanese and Korean stock markets rebounded sharply, Samsung Electronics surged 13%, spot silver plunged in the short term, and oil prices maintained their gains

# Bao Yilong, Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wallstreetcn

On Thursday morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3.3% to 247.14 points. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 2.7%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index edged up 0.1%. South Korean stocks surged sharply, triggering a circuit breaker for program trading during the session. Analysts believe the rebound in South Korean equities was largely driven by a reversal of earlier leveraged selling. “Once related positions were closed, the market naturally began a technical recovery.”

Asian stocks stabilized on Thursday after extreme volatility sparked by the Middle East conflict, with South Korean shares leading a strong rebound from their historic one-day selloff. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened and crude oil extended gains, as concerns over the duration of the conflict and its inflationary impact lingered.

South Korea’s benchmark stock index soared 11% in a single day, erasing the previous session’s drop of more than 12%. The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%, marking the first gain for Asian equities since the outbreak of Middle East hostilities over the weekend. An overnight rebound on Wall Street, as economic data eased inflation fears, further boosted sentiment.

However, the rebound remained fragile. U.S. and European stock futures traded slightly lower, while a stronger U.S. dollar reaffirmed its safe-haven status during crises. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.13%.

As equities rebounded, crude oil extended its rally, and gold prices moved higher on fears the conflict could drag on. At the heart of market divergence is a critical question: will the conflict substantially drag down global economic growth, or fuel persistent inflation by pushing energy prices higher?

## Key Market Levels

- South Korea’s benchmark index jumped 11% in one day, recovering the previous session’s 12%+ loss.

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +3 bps to 4.13%

- Japan 5-year Treasury yield: +3.5 bps to 1.610%

- U.S. Dollar Spot Index: +0.3%

- AUD/USD: -0.6% to 0.7033

- GBP/USD: -0.5% to 1.3309

- WTI crude: above $78/bbl, +2.42% on the day

- Brent crude: +4% to $84.73/bbl

- Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil main contract: hit daily limit, 4th consecutive limit-up, at 711.3 yuan/bbl, +13.99%

- Spot gold: below $5,130/oz, -0.24%

- Spot silver: short-term plunge, -3% to $80.48/oz

- Bitcoin: -1.4% to $72,298.98

## South Korean Stocks Stage Sharp Rebound, AI Themes Regain Focus

On Thursday morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 3.3% to 247.14. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.7%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.1%, and South Korean shares surged so strongly that they triggered a program trading circuit breaker.

After suffering one of its worst crashes in history just a day earlier, South Korea’s stock market staged a dramatic V‑shaped rebound in morning trade. The KOSPI opened 3.1% higher and extended gains to as much as 12%.

Analysts said the sharp recovery showed that, as panic faded slightly, high-quality tech assets sold off indiscriminately earlier quickly became top targets for bargain hunting.

Rasid stated that the supply-demand balance in the memory chip market is expected to remain tight this year and next, and the long-term structural drivers of South Korean equities remain intact. Overnight, chip stocks also outperformed in the U.S., with Micron and AMD rising more than 5% each, and Broadcom and NVIDIA gaining over 1%.

Hiroshi Namioka, Chief Strategist at T&D Asset Management, struck a cautious note:

“South Korean stock performance will depend heavily on oil price movements, making entry timing difficult to judge. With volatility elevated, the investment appeal has decreased from a risk‑reward perspective.”

U.S. and European stock futures edged lower, suggesting uncertainty over whether the rally can be sustained.

## Uncertain War Path Keeps Sentiment Fragile

Investors are struggling to assess the ultimate trajectory of the conflict and its far-reaching market impact.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: “I think market participants are trying to figure out: how does this end? What’s the end state? As clarity comes over the next few days, a week or two, that will have a real impact on risk premiums.”

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted: “Whether today’s ‘optimistic’ mood can last depends on the latest developments in the Middle East in the coming days. Market sentiment can reverse at any time; the key is whether the odds favor escalation or de-escalation.”

Amid uncertainty, many investors are using the post-2022 Ukraine war market behavior as a reference, betting that the current surge in energy prices will lift inflation, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and pressure on bonds and equities.

## Crude Extends Gains, Energy Supply Chains Under Stress

The crude oil market remained under upward pressure. WTI broke above $77 a barrel, with a cumulative gain of roughly 11% in the first three days of the week; Brent traded above $84.

Since U.S. and Israeli attacks over the weekend, oil and fuel exports from the Persian Gulf have been nearly halted. Refiners in Japan, Indonesia, and India have begun cutting operating rates and suspending exports. According to Bloomberg, supertankers have started leaving the Gulf, deepening the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the sharp rally in South Korean stocks, cryptocurrencies did not retreat significantly. The negative correlation between South Korean equities and Bitcoin has risen sharply since last October.

Bitcoin held steady near $73,000 in morning trade, while Ethereum fell 1.7%.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.18% on Thursday after declining overnight. Precious metals extended their rebound: gold rose 1.35% and silver nearly 2%.

Notably, spot platinum jumped almost 3%, approaching the $2,200 mark. The World Platinum Investment Council said on Wednesday that the global platinum market is on track for a fourth consecutive annual supply deficit, with a shortfall of 240,000 ounces forecast for 2026.

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is subject to risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk.