Morning News

# Market Wrap

Source: Wallstreetcn

## Market Overview

U.S. inflation data came in relatively mild, and the IEA announced a record release of crude oil reserves, yet failed to lift market sentiment. Trump sought to downplay the threat of mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz and again hinted the war would end soon, but markets remained concerned about the situation in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 edged down 0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied in late trading to close slightly higher by 0.08%. Large-cap tech stocks outperformed the broader market; Oracle surged more than 9% post-earnings, while cyclical stocks dragged down U.S. equities.

U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board. Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once this year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6.8 basis points, and has climbed more than 30 basis points since the Iran conflict began.

The U.S. dollar gained 0.44%, approaching the 99 level and erasing losses for the week. AUD/USD rose 0.5%, hitting its highest level since June 2022.

Spot gold fell 0.3%, and spot silver plunged more than 3%. Crude oil prices traded in a V-shape during the session. WTI crude futures extended intraday gains to 6.25%, hitting a session high of $91.45 per barrel early in the Asian trading session.

During the Asian session, China’s ChiNext Index rose more than 1%, the "Lobster" sector declined, the photovoltaic industry chain surged, shares of CATL ("Ning Wang") rose sharply in both A-share and Hong Kong markets, and NIO soared 13%.

## Key News

### China

- **Ministry of National Defense**: All parties must immediately cease military operations in the Middle East. Human primacy must be upheld in military applications of AI to prevent technological runaway.

- **Laopu Gold**: Forecasts 2025 revenue to increase by more than twice at the upper end, with net profit expected to exceed 4.8 billion yuan.

- **Forbes Annual Billionaires List**: Elon Musk retained the title of the world’s richest person with a fortune of $839 billion, while Zhang Yiming became China’s richest man.

- **Guotai Junan International**: One employee was detained by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) of Hong Kong.

### Overseas

- U.S. inflation continued to cool. February CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, the smallest increase in nearly five years.

- Trump said military operations against Iran are "coming to an end," hinting at possible strikes on more targets. Iran warned the U.S. could be trapped in a protracted war of attrition. Iran’s president put forward three necessary conditions to end the war, demanding compensation from the U.S. and Israel. The IEA approved a record release of crude oil reserves, with a scale of 400 million barrels, more than double the 2022 level. Over the past six days, Iran’s oil exports have been higher than pre-war levels.

- Reports: The Trump administration will announce the launch of a trade investigation to pave the way for new tariffs.

- The U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into Powell may see a turnaround, as the chief prosecutor has been replaced.

- NVIDIA is ramping up its focus on AI agents. It open-sourced the Nemotron 3 Super model with 120 billion parameters, boosting throughput fivefold. In a rare post, Jensen Huang stated: AI is a vital force reshaping the world, an infrastructure like electricity and the internet.

- "Giant Hard" challenges Microsoft: Musk announced a joint project between Tesla and xAI to use AI to simulate software companies.

- OpenAI’s e-commerce dream hits reality: Purchase conversion rate is less than 1%, merchants remain indifferent, and users barely make purchases.

- Meta expands its in-house chip lineup: Four new products will be launched by the end of 2027 to strengthen self-reliance in computing power.

## Market Closing Quotes

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: -0.08% to 6,775.80 points

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.61% to 47,417.27 points

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.08% to 22,716.135 points

- Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.59% to 602.54 points

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: +0.25% to 4,133.43 points

- Shenzhen Component Index: +0.78% to 14,465.41 points

- ChiNext Index: +1.31% to 3,349.53 points

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +5.25 bps to 4.2082%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: +4.60 bps to 3.6360%

### Commodities

- Spot gold: -0.28% to $5,176.92 per ounce

- Spot silver: -2.87% to $85.7923 per ounce

- WTI crude futures: Intraday gains extended to 6.25%, hitting a session high of $91.45 per barrel early in the Asian session

# News Details

## Global Highlights

### China

- **Ministry of National Defense**: All parties must immediately cease military operations in the Middle East; human primacy must be upheld in military AI applications to prevent runaway risks. On the afternoon of March 11, Senior Colonel Jiang Bin, Deputy Director of the Information Bureau and Spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict seriously violates international law and basic norms governing international relations. There are no winners in continuing and escalating the conflict, and all military actions must stop immediately. He emphasized that military applications of artificial intelligence must adhere to human control to prevent loss of control, and that "Taiwan independence" separatist activities and political manipulation are doomed to failure.

- **China’s "Lobster Farming" craze stuns the world; Goldman Sachs sales rep amazed by Chinese speed and enthusiasm**. The open-source AI agent software **OpenClaw** has sparked a nationwide "lobster farming" frenzy in China. Philip Sun, a Goldman Sachs Asia sales representative, called the speed and enthusiasm with which Chinese people embrace AI breathtaking. Nearly a thousand people lined up outside Tencent’s headquarters in Shenzhen to install the software, with participants ranging from programmers to retired engineers and housewives. Related posts garnered over a thousand likes, and the comment sections were flooded with bewildered foreign netizens: "This scale is insane!"

- **First "victims" of "Lobster Farming" emerge; some pay to uninstall**. Following the viral success of OpenClaw ("Lobster") AI agents, security issues have emerged, including unauthorized email deletion, privacy leaks, and stolen API key abuse, triggering a wave of user uninstalls. The official team has issued a risk warning identifying four major severe risks. Experts advise users to exercise caution and strengthen security protection through version updates and permission controls.

- **Laopu Gold forecasts 2025 revenue to more than double, net profit to exceed 4.8 billion yuan**. Laopu Gold released a performance forecast, estimating 2025 annual revenue at approximately 27–28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 217–229%. Net profit is projected at 4.8–4.9 billion yuan, up 226–233% from 2024. Beyond gold price effects, the announcement cited three key drivers: brand breakthrough, product iteration, and store expansion.

- **Forbes Billionaires List: Musk tops with $839 billion; Zhang Yiming is China’s richest**. The 40th Forbes Global Billionaires List was released, with a record 3,428 individuals and total wealth exceeding $20.1 trillion. Elon Musk retained the top spot with $839 billion, becoming the first person in history to cross the $800 billion threshold and on track to be the world’s first trillionaire. Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, ranked 26th globally with $69.3 billion, making him China’s richest person. The AI boom has accelerated wealth creation, with over one new billionaire born daily worldwide.

- **Guotai Junan International: One employee detained by Hong Kong ICAC**. Guotai Junan International Holdings announced in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing that on March 10, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) executed search warrants at the company’s main Hong Kong office and seized documents. The company was informed that one employee (not a board member) was detained by the ICAC for investigation. The company takes the matter seriously and will closely monitor developments.

### Overseas

- **U.S. inflation continues to cool; February CPI up 2.4% YoY, core CPI 2.5% YoY, smallest increase in five years**. U.S. core inflation slowed as expected in February. However, rising oil, gasoline, and fertilizer costs due to the Middle East conflict have led Citigroup to predict that near-term upward energy price pressure on inflation will almost certainly materialize in March data. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting.

- **Trump says Iran military operations "coming to an end," hints at more targets; Iran warns U.S. risks protracted war**. Trump stated he would "modestly" draw down strategic oil reserves to ease rising oil prices. Iran said it has shifted from "reciprocal counterattacks" to "serial strikes," claiming the U.S. Navy has "fled" waters near Iran. It confirmed attacks on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated that the U.S. and its allies have no right of passage. The UK reported three ships were attacked Wednesday in the Strait and nearby Iranian waters. Macron said coordinating Strait escorts would take weeks, and the G7 will organize oil reserve releases in the coming days. Trump downplayed Iran’s mine-laying in the Strait, claiming the U.S. has nearly destroyed all Iranian mine-laying vessels. U.S. military threats to strike Iranian civilian ports used for military purposes were criticized. A preliminary U.S. military investigation concluded an Iranian school was hit by "friendly fire"; the White House said the probe is ongoing.

- **Iranian president lays out three conditions to end war, demands U.S.-Israeli compensation**. President Pezeshkian said the "only way" to end the war is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay war reparations, and secure firm international guarantees against future aggression.

- **Israeli FM: Not seeking "endless war" with Iran; to coordinate end timeline with U.S.** Israeli Foreign Minister Katz stated Israel’s goal is to "eliminate Iran’s existential threat to Israel in the long term."

- **Report: Trump administration to launch trade investigation to pave way for new tariffs**. The investigation will be conducted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, covering digital services taxes and alleged currency manipulation.

- **DOJ investigation into Powell may see shift; lead prosecutor replaced**. The top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee said the lead prosecutor overseeing the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been replaced, signaling a potential major development in the high-stakes probe. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, a committee member, has repeatedly vowed to block all Fed nominations until the investigation concludes.

- **NVIDIA doubles down on AI agents; open-sources Nemotron 3 Super with 120B parameters, 5x throughput boost**. Nemotron 3 Super activates only 12B active parameters during inference and natively supports a 1M-token context window. Performance gains stem from three architectural innovations: a hybrid Mamba-Transformer backbone, latent Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), and Multi-Token Prediction (MTP). Running on the Blackwell platform in NVFP4 precision, inference speed is up to 4x faster than Hopper FP8 with no accuracy loss. Perplexity became the first partner to integrate the model for agent tasks.

- **Jensen Huang’s rare op-ed: AI is a world-shaping force, infrastructure like electricity and the internet**. In a rare personal essay, Huang stated AI is not just models or applications but infrastructure comparable to electricity and the internet. He outlined the AI industry as a "five-layer cake" infrastructure: energy, chips, infrastructure, models, and applications. He judged global AI infrastructure construction remains in its early stages, with current investments in the hundreds of billions of dollars and trillions more needed ahead.

- **"Macrohard" challenges Microsoft: Musk announces Tesla-xAI joint project to simulate software companies with AI**. The **Macrohard** project, also known as **Digital Optimus**, aims to build an AI agent system that directly operates computers and automates tasks. It comprises two parts: xAI’s Grok large model as the "brain," and Tesla-developed agents for execution. xAI filed a trademark application for Macrohard last year. Reports this week said Tesla took over a stalled xAI agent project.

- **OpenAI’s e-commerce dream hits reality: conversion rate <1%, merchants indifferent, users barely buy**. Struggling to convert traffic into sales amid <1% click-through rates and lukewarm merchant adoption, OpenAI is scaling back ChatGPT’s direct checkout business and shifting focus to "ChatGPT apps" and advertising. With unclosed payment loops and retreats by giants like Shopify, its commercialization path remains long.

- **Meta expands in-house chip lineup: four new AI chips by end-2027 to boost computing autonomy**. Meta is accelerating custom chip development, planning four AI chips by end-2027 for content recommendation and generative AI inference. The latest **MTIA 300** is in mass production; **MTIA 400** is ready for deployment; two more launch in 2027. Concurrently, Meta maintains multi-billion-dollar procurement deals with NVIDIA and AMD, adopting a dual "in-house + external" supply strategy to control costs while preserving supply chain flexibility.

## Selected Research Reports

- **"Big Short" warns of "significant recession" in U.S. next year**. Wall Street’s "Big Short" David Rosenberg cautioned that the two pillars supporting the U.S. economy—fiscal stimulus and AI capital spending—are set to stall simultaneously, risking a severe recession. Current GDP slowdown and employment stress show economic cracks. A sharp stock market correction eroding the wealth effect and suppressing consumer spending could trigger a deep downturn.

- **U.S. has "six big tools" including SPR release, but impact limited if Strait of Hormuz closed**. The U.S.-Iran conflict has sent oil prices soaring; the IEA plans record reserve releases, and the G7 is in emergency talks. JPMorgan bluntly stated six policy tools—reserve releases, export restrictions, fuel tax exemptions—are "a drop in the bucket." The Strait’s daily potential supply disruption of 12 million barrels far outstrips any policy’s capacity. The only real inflection point for oil prices: the U.S. Navy formally declaring safe passage through the Strait.

- **Hormuz alternative routes: two pipelines keep global oil markets afloat amid Middle East turmoil**. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline have a combined capacity of ~8.8 million bpd (vs. ~20 million bpd pre-conflict through the Strait), the only two major routes bypassing the Strait. Analysts warn of potential attacks on pipelines and ports, which could trigger a secondary oil price shock.

# Domestic Macro

**MIIT NVDB: "Six Do’s and Six Don’ts" Recommendations for Preventing Security Risks of OpenClaw ("Lobster") Open-Source Agents**  

The Cybersecurity Threat and Vulnerability Information Sharing Platform of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued security guidelines for OpenClaw applications, proposing the "Six Do’s and Six Don’ts" principle:  

- **Do**: Use the latest official version; strictly control Internet exposure; implement least privilege; use skill markets cautiously; defend against cyberattacks; establish long-term protection mechanisms.  

- **Do NOT**: Use third-party images; expose instances; deploy with excessive permissions; use high-risk skill packages; visit untrusted websites; disable log auditing.

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# Domestic Companies / Industries

**CAAM: February NEV Production and Sales Down 21.8% and 14.2% YoY**  

Affected by the Lunar New Year calendar shift and weak consumer sentiment, China’s passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle (NEV) markets contracted year-on-year in February. NEV production reached 694,000 units and sales 796,000 units, down 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. NEVs accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales.

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# Overseas Macro

**CBO: U.S. Federal Budget Deficit to Hit $1.9 Trillion in Fiscal 2026**  

The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. federal deficit will rise to $3.1 trillion by 2036, reaching 6.7% of GDP — above the 50-year average of 3.8%. Rising net interest costs are the main driver.

**U.S. Big-Corp CEO Confidence Rises to 1-Year High Despite Middle East Tensions**  

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index rose 9 points to 89 in Q1, the highest in more than a year. A reading above 50 signals expected growth in capital spending, sales, and hiring. While hiring plans improved, roughly one-third of CEOs still plan to cut jobs in the coming months.

**ECB Officials: Middle East Conflict May Force Earlier Rate Hikes**  

Hawkish signals from ECB members (including the Slovak and German central bank governors) have raised market bets on rate hikes, putting rate-cut discussions on hold. Citing lessons from 2022’s inflation surge, the ECB warned against wage‑price spirals and stressed decisive action to preserve price stability.

**India Buys ~30 Million Barrels of Russian Oil After U.S. Temporary Waiver**  

Since the U.S. approved India’s purchases of Russian crude last week, Indian refiners (including IOCL and Reliance Industries) have bought up all unsold Russian crude in the spot market. The cargoes are loaded and mostly in Asian waters, pending delivery.

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# Overseas Companies

**Oracle Earnings Call: $29B in New Deals; AI Infrastructure “Does Not Burn Cash”; “We Are the SaaS Disruptor”**  

Strong Q3 results eased market concerns over debt pressure and a “SaaS apocalypse”. AI infrastructure revenue surged 243%. A $29 billion contract pipeline, supported by customer prepayments and a “bring-your-own hardware” model, decoupled AI capex from Oracle’s cash flow. Executives rejected claims that AI would destroy traditional software, declaring Oracle the real disruptor.

**Oracle Pushes “Bring Your Own Chip” Cloud to Shift AI Costs**  

Facing heavy capital spending, Oracle requires some cloud customers to bear the cost of high-end AI chips or bring their own chips to its data centers. This preserves cash flow while fulfilling new orders. Oracle shares rose 10% in premarket trading.

**NVIDIA Invests $2B in AI Cloud Firm Nebius to Build AI Data Centers**  

NVIDIA invested $2 billion in Dutch cloud provider Nebius to jointly build AI data centers, targeting over 5 GW of computing capacity by the end of 2030. The deal is part of NVIDIA’s “circular investment” strategy to strengthen its supply chain position against cloud giants’ in-house chips. Nebius jumped nearly 15% at market open.

**Meta Buys “Lobster Community” Moltbook; Zuckerberg Pushes for Agent Ecosystem**  

Meta integrated Moltbook into its AI Super Lab, with its co-founders joining the team. Meta values Moltbook’s “persistent directory” model, which supports always-on registration and invocation for AI Agents to improve interoperability. Moltbook is a Reddit-style social network built on OpenClaw.

**Apple Foldable iPhone to Launch Later This Year with iPad-Like Interface**  

The long-rumored foldable iPhone will feature an inner foldable display roughly the size of an iPad mini and a smaller external cover screen. The internal screen will have a wider aspect ratio, a key differentiator from current narrow foldables.

**JPMorgan Takes Lead on Wall Street: Cuts Private Credit Valuations, Tightens Lending Leverage**  

JPMorgan reduced loan collateral valuations for software firms, becoming the first major Wall Street bank to tighten private credit terms. Fears that AI will disrupt the software industry have spread from public to private markets.

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# Industries / Themes

## 1. Computing Power

On March 11, the National Supercomputing Internet announced **free 2‑week, 10 million Tokens per user** for all OpenClaw users on its platform. Token refills are priced at **0.1 yuan per million Tokens**, well below market rates.

**Comment**:  

Free tokens lower barriers to entry, accelerate OpenClaw ecosystem penetration, and lay the groundwork for monetization. The ultra-low refill price strongly supports high-frequency, multi-step Agent tasks. This policy will boost token consumption and computing demand, benefiting AI servers, chips, cloud computing, and the upstream/downstream supply chain.

## 2. Power Grid Equipment

Google, Tesla, and five other power and data center companies launched the **Utilize Grid Alliance** to improve U.S. grid utilization, cut power costs, and expand load capacity. The alliance estimates optimized grids could save consumers over $100 billion in the next decade.

**Comment**:  

AI data centers are driving explosive power demand and surging electricity prices in the U.S. Grid reform and efficiency improvement are the most practical solutions. Smart energy storage, virtual power plants, distributed energy, and grid flexible resources will lead the next phase of U.S. energy upgrading. Chinese exporters with strong technology and channels stand to benefit.

## 3. Carbon Fiber

China’s self-developed **T1200 ultra-high-strength carbon fiber** will make its global debut on March 11. Developed by China National Building Material Group, it is not a lab sample but an industrial product with **100-tonne-scale mass production capacity**, filling a global gap.

**Comment**:  

Global aerospace-grade carbon fiber supply is dominated by Japan and the U.S. Domestic leaders are breaking through technological and certification barriers and are expected to enjoy scarcity premiums.

## 4. AI Glasses

TCL’s AR brand RayNeo and Amap launched **RayNeo Smart Life**, the first local-life app for smart glasses. Amap’s popular “Street Ranking” feature is now available on AR glasses. The partnership aims to upgrade AR glasses from “geek toys” to “all-around life companions”.

**Comment**:  

With richer designs, lower costs, improved optics, and stronger on-device AI computing power, AI glasses are poised to become the next consumer electronics segment with shipments exceeding 100 million units.

## 5. Space Computing Power

At the AWE 2026 Chip Summit, **Xingji Chuanyue** (a DreamTech ecosystem firm) launched the “Tianqiong” chip series, now in mass production for DreamTech’s robot products. It also revealed plans to launch the “Yaotai” space computing box, starting the construction of a low-orbit supercomputing center.

**Comment**:  

AI and embodied intelligence drive exponential computing demand, while global AI computing power remains severely scarce. Space computing is a new frontier in tech and commercial space competition, overcoming limits of ground-based energy and global coverage, and enabling “space-to-space” and “ground-to-space” computing models.

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# Today’s Forward-Looking News

- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (previous week)

- U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits (January)

- Japan PM Takako Ide to meet with Middle East Envoy

- Federal Reserve Quarterly Financial Accounts report

- Earnings: Adobe, Futu, Li Auto

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# Risk Disclaimer

Markets are risky, investments require caution. This document does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investment objectives, financial situations, or specific needs. Investors should assess whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this report suits their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this material are at your own risk.