A small number of ships "can only pass by sailing along the Iranian coastline"! If the Strait of Hormuz is to be reopened, only Iran ceases fire

# Long Yue

Data show that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from a pre-conflict daily average of about 100 vessels to roughly 2, with around 400 tankers still stranded. Only a handful of ships are able to transit by hugging Iran’s coastline. JPMorgan analysis notes that while the strait has not been formally closed, passage has effectively become “Iran-approved.” Allies have reacted coolly to Trump’s convoy proposal. Oil prices have risen roughly 40% since February 28 to above $100 per barrel, with markets betting that only a ceasefire could ease the situation.

As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to a trickle. Though a few vessels still pass, transit has morphed into a system of “controlled clearance.”

In its latest client report, JPMorgan states that shipping through the strait is sparse and “overwhelmingly Iran-linked,” with Tehran appearing to grant passage only after verification. The bank’s analysts write:

“In effect, this has created a situation where the strait, while not formally closed, is increasingly dependent on political understandings with Tehran.”

Vessel-tracking data show that the few authorized ships have abandoned standard routes and instead sail through the channel between Larak Island and Qeshm Island, hugging Iran’s shoreline. The report notes: “This is not a standard route and reflects a process designed to verify vessel ownership and cargo, allowing passage for ships not affiliated with the U.S. or its allies.”

For example, some vessels bound for India have received safe passage after their governments engaged with Iran. The Indian LPG carrier *Nanda Devi* was granted clearance and arrived at Vadinar Port on March 17.

On the differentiation of “who is more likely to be cleared,” JPMorgan says Iran generally views China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey as “neutral or friendly” and prioritizes their passage. By contrast, Japan, South Korea, the UK, France, and Italy tend to coordinate with the U.S. and explore convoy options rather than negotiate directly with Tehran.

According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, only about 2 tankers now pass through the strait daily, compared to roughly 100 before the conflict. Around 400 tankers remain stranded in surrounding waters. As a result, Brent crude has risen 40% since late February and now trades above $100 per barrel.

## Convoy Plan Meets Cool Reception: Allies Question Military Intervention Efficacy

Facing the strait’s blockage, Trump has urged allies to deploy warships to help reopen it, proposing a multinational naval escort for commercial vessels.

However, the proposal has been met with indifference from European and Asian partners. Multiple governments argue that additional naval assets would have limited marginal impact, given the already substantial U.S. military presence in the region—and that it remains far from sufficient to “substantially clear” the strait.

After lukewarm ally support, Trump said on social media Tuesday that the U.S. no longer needs help from NATO countries or Japan, Australia, and South Korea, according to Xinhua. While he did not name the Strait of Hormuz, markets interpreted the comment as a sign his convoy mobilization had faltered.

Analysts widely agree that the bottleneck for convoys is not “lack of warships” but whether Iran’s low-cost deterrence can be neutralized. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, states:

“Securing the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. We will not be comfortable letting merchant ships or even escort vessels pass until we eliminate Iran’s layered asymmetric capabilities—mines, fast-attack craft, submarines, and drones.”

Geography amplifies the challenge. The strait’s narrowest point is less than 30 miles wide, putting shipping lanes within effective range of missiles, drones, and small boats. John Bradford, a former U.S. naval officer and co-founder of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, notes that escort vessels can only provide protection within a limited radius, meaning the number of ships they can safeguard in a single pass is extremely small.

## Limited Alternatives; Markets Fear “Implicit Threat” Even After Ceasefire

Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are diverting some crude exports via pipelines to bypass the strait, but this cannot fully replace normal shipping volumes.

Analysts say container shipping is also affected, with some lines opting for longer, costlier alternative routes to avoid risk. U.S. ports face greater uncertainty, and bunker fuel prices are rising.

Markets are betting that only a ceasefire can restore normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet there is also concern that even if the war ends, the strait may not immediately “reopen.” Iran could maintain deterrence through sporadic attacks, keeping route risks at commercially unsustainable levels.

Trump himself has acknowledged the lingering threat. Over the weekend, he said that even if Iran’s military were “100% destroyed,” Tehran could “easily” continue threatening ships with drones, mines, and short-range missiles.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, says that as long as Iran maintains “sufficient threat,” it does not need a formal blockade to make the route “uninsurable” for commercial vessels.

Incident statistics underscore the risk. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports 21 incidents affecting vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman since the war began through Tuesday, including 16 attacks.

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