The key turning point in the overnight market! Netanyahu: Suspension of air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, war may end

# Long Yue

Source: Wall Street CN

Global markets saw a critical turning point overnight. Initially pressured by a collective hawkish shift from central banks worldwide and fears of a prolonged war, gold crashed below $4,500, and WTI crude briefly topped $100 per barrel. But Netanyahu subsequently claimed Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities had been destroyed, predicting the war would end “much faster than expected.” He also pledged to pause attacks on energy facilities and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering an immediate plunge of over 8% in WTI crude and a sharp narrowing of losses in U.S. equities during the late session.

Global capital markets endured intense volatility overnight. Sentiment had been heavily weighed down by a coordinated hawkish pivot from global central banks and concerns over a protracted Middle East war—until a single speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became the decisive catalyst for a market turnaround.

On the evening of March 19 local time, Netanyahu held a press conference in Jerusalem. On developments in the Middle East, Xinhua News Agency reported that Netanyahu stated that after 20 days of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran had lost its ability to enrich uranium and produce ballistic missiles. He outlined three objectives for military operations against Iran: first, eliminate Iran’s “nuclear threat”; second, neutralize Iran’s ballistic missile threat; and third, achieve “regime change.”

On the trajectory of the conflict, Netanyahu offered a time frame. “I believe this war will end much faster than people think. In war, you have to grit your teeth,” he said. Netanyahu rejected the idea of endless military operations against Iran, stating at the conference that the goals he had set were achievable.

## Energy War Cools: Israel Pledges to “Pause” Airstrikes on Iranian Energy Facilities

Days earlier, an attack on Iran’s largest gas field—the South Pars field—sparked Iranian retaliation against energy hubs in Qatar and other Gulf states. Strikes on critical energy infrastructure had pushed Brent crude above $119 per barrel in early trading on Thursday.

But the situation reversed that evening. Xinhua reported that Netanyahu confirmed at the press conference that Israel had “independently” carried out airstrikes on Iran’s gas fields. However, he pledged on the spot to “abide by” U.S. President Trump’s request and “pause” subsequent airstrikes on energy facilities.

Earlier that day, Trump told reporters at the White House that he had instructed Netanyahu not to attack energy facilities inside Iran. Trump had previously claimed he “knew nothing” about the attack on the South Pars field.

On the Strait of Hormuz—the energy chokepoint most critical to oil markets—Netanyahu said Israel was assisting U.S. efforts to reopen the blocked waterway.

Separately, Wall Street CN noted that the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a general license easing restrictions on the delivery and sale of certain Russian crude oil, further alleviating supply-side anxiety in oil markets.

## Markets Price in the Shift: Crude Plunges from Highs, U.S. Stocks Stabilize Late

Netanyahu’s remarks, combined with the U.S. easing of crude supply policies, immediately stripped the “risk premium” from oil markets.

WTI crude briefly surged above $100 per barrel but then plunged sharply, falling more than 8% from its intraday high. Brent crude turned lower by over 3% in late U.S. trading.

Oil prices in key Middle Eastern producing hubs—Oman and Dubai—also collapsed. Dubai crude briefly hit an all-time high of $177 per barrel amid extreme panic before retreating sharply.

The rapid decline in oil prices acted like a release valve for risk assets. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield cooled from a peak of 3.96% and finished nearly flat at 3.784%. The three major U.S. stock indexes recovered most of their losses in the final hour of trading; the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down just 0.44%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed, rising 0.65%.

Data from Susquehanna Investment Group showed that the S&P 500 call skew had fallen to the 3rd percentile, indicating that with the Middle East situation cooling in the short term, the market had built up room for a technical rebound.

## Pre-Speech Markets: Global Central Banks Go Hawkish, Igniting Inflation Fears

Before Netanyahu’s speech, markets were shrouded in gloom over stagflation and a prolonged war. Over the past 24 hours, major central banks worldwide had spoken in quick succession, all citing inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict as a major uncertainty for policy outlooks.

As compiled by Wall Street CN, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Riksbank all kept rates unchanged with hawkish language. The European Central Bank stood pat while cutting growth forecasts and raising inflation projections, pointing directly to stagflation risks. The Bank of England explicitly stated it stood “ready to act” against inflation, catching markets off guard.

Against the backdrop of strong hawkish signals from global central banks and expectations of a prolonged high-rate environment, fears that a protracted war would stoke global inflation peaked. Gold, a non-yielding asset, bore the brunt of heavy selling: spot gold plummeted more than 3.4%, briefly breaking below $4,500 to hit a six-week low; silver crashed 12% at one point during the session.

## Israel’s Three Goals Laid Out, Ground Operations Remain a Risk

While hot conflict in the energy sphere has paused, the long-term resolution of this conflict remains incomplete.

Xinhua News Agency emphasized that Netanyahu clearly laid out three objectives for military operations against Iran: first, eliminate Iran’s “nuclear threat”; second, neutralize the ballistic missile threat; and third, achieve “regime change.” “We are winning; Iran is being destroyed,” he declared.

On the ultimate goal, Xinhua specifically noted that Netanyahu said achieving “regime change” in Iran would require more than airstrikes—it would need a “ground component.” This strongly implied that Israel retains the option of ground operations. He claimed rifts had emerged both within Iran’s leadership and on the front lines.

Netanyahu also said military operations against Iran would continue “for as long as necessary.” During the press conference, the Israel Defense Forces detected missile launches from Iran toward Israel, triggering air-raid sirens in northern Israel.

Netanyahu firmly denied accusations that Israel was “dragging the U.S. into war,” seeking to clarify the boundaries of responsibility in the U.S.-Israel alliance. “Does anyone really think someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on. President Trump always decides based on what’s good for America,” he said.

## Iran Warns of “Zero Restraint” if Infrastructure Attacked Again; U.S. May Seize Islands to Force Hormuz Opening

On the Iranian and U.S. sides, Xinhua reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on Thursday that the war between Iran and the U.S. and Israel had entered a “new stage.” According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that if domestic infrastructure were attacked again, Iran would exercise “zero restraint”; satellite images released by Iran showed damage to U.S. military facilities and equipment in Bahrain, the UAE, and Iraq.

A U.S. F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing after reportedly being hit by Iranian fire. Two sources told media the jet landed at a U.S. air base in the Middle East after being struck by Iranian fire.

The U.S., meanwhile, is deploying additional troops to the Middle East and may seize Iran’s key oil export hubs to force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Xinhua cited reports that a 2,200-strong U.S. Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) was sailing from Japan to the Middle East aboard amphibious assault ships, with an estimated arrival time of about one week. The U.S. may use this force to seize Kharg Island as leverage to compel Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

JPMorgan analysts warned that investors betting on a quick resolution to the war were taking high-risk gambles. Until Israel’s objectives are met, the fragile geopolitical balance remains a Sword of Damocles hanging over asset prices.

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