Morning News

Source: Wall Street Journal  

**Market Overview**  

Despite Trump's renewed call for higher tariffs, US stocks edged slightly higher on Monday. Investors awaited Tuesday's US CPI data and bank earnings.  

Nvidia's market cap briefly fell below $4 trillion. Trade Desk will be added to the S&P 500, causing its after-hours shares to surge over 10%.  

Ahead of the crucial US CPI report, long-term Treasury bonds fell again, with the 10-year yield rising 2.4 basis points to a near one-month high.  

Bitcoin closed up about 1%, after rallying over 3% intraday to hit a record high of $123,000.  

Gold fell nearly 1% from its intraday peak. Silver reversed gains to close down about 1%, after hitting a near 14-year high earlier. Due to Trump's sanctions on Russia excluding new measures limiting energy exports, oil prices turned lower after an initial rise, with WTI crude dropping 3%.  

During Asian trading, A-shares were mixed: the Shanghai Composite rose in choppy trade, the robotics sector surged, Hong Kong stocks rallied in the afternoon, pharmaceutical stocks rebounded strongly, commodities gained, while government bonds fell.  

**Key News**  

- China's June aggregate financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans reaching 2.24 trillion yuan. The M2-M1 scissors gap narrowed.  

- China's June dollar-denominated exports rose 5.8% YoY, while imports grew 1.1%. Labubu drove toy exports past 10 billion yuan; rare earth exports hit their highest since 2009, iron ore imports reached a yearly high, and steel exports set a record for Q2.  

- The PBOC's latest remarks carried significant insights: on monetary policy, local special bonds, the yuan exchange rate, and boosting consumption.  

- The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Trump threatened "harsh" tariffs to force a Russia-Ukraine deal within 50 days, proposing 100% tariffs on Russia. Brazil will seek to lower US tariffs to 30% and delay them for 90 days. The Trump administration imposed a 17% anti-dumping tariff on Mexican tomatoes.  

- Trump: "I went on TV and shook the markets; Treasury Secretary Bessent has calmed them down, which is good."  

- White House economic advisor Hassett: "Trump certainly has the right to fire Powell if justified." Reports suggest Hassett is gaining an edge in the Fed chair race.  

- Next-gen Optimus coming? Musk: An "epic and shocking" demo by year-end.  

- Ahead of his China visit, Huang Renxun's latest interview: "Whether you're replaced by AI depends on one thing." Nvidia mandates all staff use AI.  

- Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions in building the world's largest data center, debating whether to abandon open-source for closed-source.  

**Market Close**  

**Global Stocks**:  

- S&P 500: +0.14% to 6,268.56  

- Dow: +0.20% to 44,459.65  

- Nasdaq: +0.27% to 20,640.33  

- Europe STOXX 600: -0.06% to 546.99  

**A-Shares**:  

- Shanghai Composite: +0.27% to 3,519.65  

- Shenzhen Component: -0.11% to 10,684.52  

- ChiNext: -0.45% to 2,197.07  

**Bonds**:  

- US 10-year yield: +1.60 bps to 4.4253%  

- US 2-year yield: +1.06 bps to 3.8956%  

**Commodities**:  

- WTI August crude: -2.15% to $66.98/barrel  

- Brent September crude: -1.63% to $69.21/barrel  

- COMEX gold: -0.38% to $3,351.40/ounce

**Key News Details**  

**Global Highlights**  

**China's June Financial Data**:  

- Aggregate financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans reaching 2.24 trillion yuan. The M2-M1 scissors gap narrowed to 3.7 percentage points, down 1.9 points from May.  

- In H1 2025, aggregate financing totaled 22.83 trillion yuan, up 4.74 trillion YoY. RMB loans rose by 12.92 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan.  

**China's June Trade Data**:  

- Dollar-denominated exports grew 5.8% YoY, imports rose 1.1%. Labubu-driven toy exports exceeded 10 billion yuan.  

- Rare earth exports hit their highest since 2009, iron ore imports reached a yearly high, and steel exports set a Q2 record.  

- H1 high-tech exports grew 9.2%, marking nine consecutive months of growth. Key sectors:  

 - Automatic data processing equipment: 702.79 billion yuan (+3.0%).  

 - Integrated circuits: 650.26 billion yuan (+20.3%).  

 - Automobiles: 428.72 billion yuan (+9.4%).  

- Steel exports surged 11% YoY in Q2 to 30.7 million tons, with semi-finished steel exports up over 300% in the first five months.  

**PBOC's Key Messages**:  

- Monetary policy will remain accommodative, with close monitoring of policy effectiveness.  

- China rejects competitive currency devaluation.  

- Service consumption is pivotal for boosting domestic demand, with supply-side improvements needed.  

- Small banks must balance bond investment risks and returns.  

**Global Trade Tensions**:  

- The EU plans counter-tariffs on $72 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, while also seeking partnerships with India and others.  

- Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia unless a Ukraine peace deal is reached within 50 days, though officials later clarified the focus was on secondary sanctions.  

- Brazil seeks to reduce new US tariffs from 50% to 30% and delay implementation by 90 days.  

- The US imposed a 17% anti-dumping tariff on Mexican tomatoes, causing Mexican ETFs to drop after hours.  

**US Economic and Policy Developments**:  

- Trump claimed his TV appearance "shook markets," while Treasury Secretary Bessent "calmed them down." He also suggested the Fed cut rates below 1%, denying inflation concerns.  

- White House advisor Hassett stated Trump could fire Fed Chair Powell "with cause," citing a $700 million cost overrun in the Fed's HQ renovation. Reports suggest Hassett is a top contender for the next Fed chair.  

- Trump will announce $70 billion in AI and energy investments in Pennsylvania, with BlackRock executives attending.  

**Crypto and Tech**:  

- Bitcoin hit a record high above $123,000 amid US legislative progress on crypto bills (CLARITY and GENIUS Acts).  

- US banking regulators issued guidelines for traditional banks entering the crypto custody space.  

- Musk teased an "epic and shocking" demo for the next-gen Optimus robot by year-end.  

- Nvidia’s Huang Renxun, ahead of his China visit, warned that "those without ideas will be replaced by AI" and mandated AI use for all employees.  

- Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions in building the world’s largest data center for AGI, while debating whether to shift from open-source to closed-source AI models.  

**Domestic Macro (China)**:  

- PBOC-affiliated media emphasized expanding domestic demand and curbing industrial "involution" (excessive competition). Policies like the *SME Payment Protection Regulation* aim to address low-price competition and overcapacity.  

- Historical analysis shows brokerage-led market rallies often precede growth in sectors like defense, healthcare, TMT, and new energy.  

- Urban renewal efforts will focus on upgrading existing infrastructure (not demolition) in core cities.  

**Overseas Macro**:  

- UK central bank chief Bailey warned against bank-issued stablecoins, hinting at potential rate cuts if the labor market weakens. GBP fell to a three-week low.  

- Goldman Sachs noted a shift in gold’s demand drivers from speculative to long-term structural (e.g., central bank purchases), forecasting $3,700/oz by end-2025.  

- Silver prices hit a 14-year high due to supply shortages and trade war fears.  

**Corporate News**:  

- Wall Street banks’ Q2 reports may show a 14th straight quarter of weak investment banking revenue (~$7.5B, down 10% YoY), with trading income ($31B, +10%) as a lifeline.  

- ByteDance is developing lightweight mixed-reality glasses, competing with Meta’s 2027 product.  

**Sector Themes**:  

1. **Humanoid Robots**: A 124-million-yuan order for Chinese firms signals commercialization progress.  

2. **Cleaning Appliances**: Chinese leaders hold global advantages as the market matures.  

3. **Urban Renewal**: A national push for smart, resilient cities may benefit full-chain operators.  

4. **AI Applications**: xAI’s Grok-4 model outperforms rivals, reinforcing demand for AI-PCBs and agents.  

**Today’s Calendar**:  

- China’s Q2 GDP, June retail sales, industrial output, fixed-asset investment, and property data.  

- US June CPI.  

- Speeches by Fed officials (Bowman, Barr, Barkin, Collins) and UK’s Bailey.  

- OPEC monthly oil market report.  

- Trump attends Pennsylvania energy summit.  

*Disclaimer: Views expressed are solely the author’s and do not constitute investment advice. No guarantees are made regarding accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The platform disclaims liability for any losses arising from reliance on this information.*