X-trader NEWS
Open your markets potential
Morning News
- **Commodities**: WTI August crude fell 0.68% to $66.52/barrel. Brent September crude dropped 0.72% to $68.71/barrel. COMEX gold futures declined 0.54% to $3,333.50/ounce.
The following is the English - language translation of the above - mentioned text:
### Details of Top News
#### Global Highlights
The US Treasury Secretary recently hinted that there is no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of some additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation between the two sides is "in a good situation". According to Huanqiu.com, Bessent said that he hopes to meet with the Chinese side as soon as possible, possibly in a third - country, and the time may be early next month. "We are still working hard." The approval of licenses for chips like H20 is part of the negotiation between the Trump administration and the Chinese side.
The core CPI in the United States rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month in June, being lower than expected for 5 consecutive months! In June, the prices of furniture and toys, which are greatly affected by tariffs, rose rapidly, but the decline in the prices of used cars and air tickets offset this impact. The month - on - month increase in the core CPI does meet the target of the Federal Reserve, which is good news for policymakers, but it is not enough to support an interest rate cut in July. Traders predict that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, and there will be nearly two interest rate cuts in total by the end of the year.
"The New Federal Reserve News Agency": The June CPI data will not change the Federal Reserve's decision - making. Nick Timiraos wrote that although the June CPI data has been released, Federal Reserve officials are likely to continue to maintain a cautious attitude. No matter how the market interprets the June data, the key point is that the impact of tariffs has not been fully manifested, and the data of July and August will be more concerned.
Trump said that an agreement has been reached with Indonesia, and the United States will impose a 19% tariff, which is lower than the threatened level last week. Trump said that the United States will exempt Indonesian - exported goods from tariffs and tariff barriers, and Indonesia "has opened the entire market to the United States for the first time", and has promised to purchase $15 billion of US energy, $4.5 billion of US agricultural products and 50 Boeing aircraft. The Indonesian ETF's increase expanded, and the Boeing stock price once turned up by more than 1%. The tariff notice released by Trump last week stated that Indonesia will be imposed a 32% tariff from August 1st.
The European Union: There is a "big gap" in the positions of Europe and the United States in some areas, and a 30% tariff has confused the US negotiators. European Union Trade Commissioner Šefčovič said that although the negotiations between the two sides are quite close in terms of the principle text, there are still huge differences in some key areas. If the tariff reaches 30% or a higher level, it will make trans - Atlantic trade "almost impossible" to proceed as before.
What does a 30% tariff mean for the European Union? A 30% tariff may trigger a trans - Atlantic trade war, forcing the European Union to take retaliatory counter - measures, resulting in a 0.7% contraction in the euro - zone's economic output. The European Central Bank may cut interest rates in advance to 1%, and the euro exchange rate will be under pressure. Export - oriented big countries such as Germany will bear the brunt, facing losses of hundreds of billions of euros. Barclays warns that if the tariff is implemented, European stocks may plummet by "double - digits", and the market's risk - averse sentiment is heating up.
The Prime Minister of Canada: "There is not much evidence" that the United States is willing to reach an agreement without imposing additional tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Carney publicly stated for the first time that the US tariffs are likely to remain unchanged. He said that even if a bilateral agreement is reached with the United States to resolve the current tariff dispute, it may not be possible to completely exempt the tariffs imposed by the United States. It is expected that the negotiations between Canada and the United States will heat up significantly before the August 1st deadline.
Trump: Zelensky should not target Moscow as an attack object. Previously, the media reported that in order to force Russia to return to the negotiation table, Trump encouraged Ukraine to step up its attacks on Russian territory during a phone call with Zelensky, and even asked whether Ukraine could attack Moscow if the United States provided long - range weapons.
Trump's so - called "major statement on Russia" was revealed, and the market reaction was: Another 50 - day grace period? TACO! The oil price plummeted accordingly. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement within 50 days, and impose sub - tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil, and announced an agreement with NATO to deliver weapons to Ukraine. However, the market believes that Trump's statement lacks an immediate threat, has a limited short - term impact on the global energy supply, and the concern about the sanctions on Russia's oil exports is temporarily alleviated, so the oil price dropped accordingly.
Huang Renxun: The US government has approved the export license, and will start selling H20 chips to the Chinese market. Huang Renxun said that NVIDIA will launch a new RTXpro GPU, which is specially designed for computer graphics, digital twins and artificial intelligence.
Huang Renxun met with the media at the Beijing Chain Expo on Wednesday. NVIDIA will launch a new version of Chinese - customized chips as soon as September. The 3rd Chain Expo will open in Beijing on July 16th, and NVIDIA will participate for the first time. Huang Renxun will attend this Chain Expo, introduce NVIDIA's new products at the meeting, and re - emphasize the long - term commitment to the Chinese market. NVIDIA will launch a new version of AI chips customized for the Chinese market as soon as September this year.
What investment signal does the return of NVIDIA's H20 to the Chinese market send? Citigroup and Jefferies said that the resumption of H20 chip sales will have a positive impact on China's Internet data center industry. Bernstein estimates that for every $10 billion of NVIDIA's revenue recovered in the Chinese market, it can bring about a $0.25 increase in EPS.
Bessent: The formal process for the successor of Powell has been launched, and the selection will be carried out at Trump's pace. Bessent emphasized, "This is the decision of President Trump, and everything will be promoted at his pace." Bessent will participate in the decision - making process of the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate. Bessent also emphasized that the Federal Reserve Chairman usually resigns as a director at the same time when leaving office, implying that his position as a director is also in doubt.
The CEO of JPMorgan Chase issued the clearest warning on Wall Street: The independence of the Federal Reserve is of vital importance. Dimon told the media in a conference call after JPMorgan Chase released its financial report, "I think the independence of the Federal Reserve is absolutely crucial. If you interfere with the Federal Reserve, it may bring counter - productive results." Dimon became the first leader of a major US financial institution to publicly respond to the Trump administration's attack on the Federal Reserve Chairman. Analysts pointed out that considering Dimon's status on Wall Street and his history of influencing Trump's decisions many times, his public support for the Federal Reserve is particularly important.
Republican congressmen defected, and the cryptocurrency regulatory bill supported by Trump suffered a major setback and failed to pass the vote in the House of Representatives. The final vote result of the US House of Representatives was 196 votes in favor and 223 votes against, among which 13 Republican congressmen voted against the procedural motion together with the Democrats. The leadership of the House of Representatives tentatively plans to hold another vote later on Tuesday to continue promoting these bills. According to media reports, it is still unclear whether the second vote later on Tuesday will be aimed at the same rules and the same bill, or whether the Republican leaders of the House of Representatives will modify the bill content to meet the requirements of the opponents.
Affected by this, Bitcoin fell 2.66% within the day, and the stock price of the stable - coin company Circle once fell by more than 7%.
Is Apple's foldable screen really coming? The first iPhone Fold is expected to be released in the second half of next year, with a starting price of about $1800. According to the latest industry survey by Tianfeng International's Guo Ming錤, in order to ensure the mass - production of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026, Apple will adopt the crease - free display design scheme of Samsung Display (SDC). Among them, Fine M - Tec, as the metal plate supplier of SDC displays, will be the biggest beneficiary. In terms of production and pricing, UBS said that the initial pricing of Apple phones may be in the range of $1800 - $2000, and the initial production is expected to be limited to 10 - 15 million units.
After China's fund achieved a 14% return in half a year, Bridgewater raised the outlook for the Chinese stock market, believing that it has a low - valuation and an attractive risk - return! Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, is increasing its investment in the Chinese stock market. Its China fund recorded a strong 14% return in the first half of the year, mainly due to the economic stimulus policies of the Chinese government and the relatively low valuation of the stock market. Bridgewater believes that China's continuous policy support will continue to boost risky assets.
### Domestic Macroeconomics
The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, and Xi Jinping delivered an important speech. The conference deployed 7 key tasks of urban work.
First, focus on optimizing the modern urban system. Focusing on improving the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities for population and economic and social development, develop cluster - type and networked modern urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, promote the urbanization construction with counties as important carriers in a classified manner, continue to promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, and promote the coordinated development of large, medium - sized and small cities and small towns, as well as the integrated development of urban and rural areas.
Second, focus on building a vibrant innovative city. Carefully cultivate an innovative ecosystem and make continuous breakthroughs in the development of new - quality productive forces. Enhance urban momentum through reform and opening - up, carry out urban renewal with high quality, and give full play to the leading - role of cities in the domestic and international dual - circulation.
In addition, it also includes focusing on building a comfortable and convenient livable city, a green and low - carbon beautiful city, a safe and reliable resilient city, a civilized city with high - moral standards, and a convenient and efficient smart city.
Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Unswervingly Promote High - level Opening - up". The article pointed out that we should use the domestic big - cycle to attract global resource elements and enhance the linkage effect of the domestic and international markets and resources. Steadily expand the institutional opening - up of rules, regulations, management and standards, actively connect with international high - standard economic and trade rules, deepen the reform of the management systems of foreign trade, foreign investment and overseas investment, and create a first - class business environment that is market - oriented, law - based and international. Implement the strategy of upgrading free trade pilot zones, encourage original and integrated exploration, and create a new high - land of reform and opening - up with a higher level of opening - up and a stronger radiation effect.
The People's Bank of China carried out a record - high 1.4 - trillion - yuan outright repo, increasing the scale for two consecutive months, with a clear signal of stabilizing liquidity. Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the central bank is currently comprehensively using outright repos and MLF to continuously inject medium - term liquidity into the market. Focusing on effectively responding to the impact of external fluctuations on the macro - economic operation and promoting the mild recovery of the price level, various monetary policy tools have room for exertion in the direction of moderate relaxation in the second half of the year.
China's GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 3,117.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% year - on - year; the added value of the secondary industry was 23,905 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 39,031.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5%.
China's year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down to 4.8% in June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size was 6.8%, the fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year.
China's year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down to 4.8% in June, and the catering revenue slowed down. The retail sales of household appliances, audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment of units above the designated size increased by 32.4%, 24.4%, and 13.9% respectively, which was slower than the previous month. In June, the catering revenue was 470.8 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%, and the previous value was 5.9%.
The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in China was 6.8% in June, and the production of new energy vehicles and industrial robots grew rapidly. In June, the added value of 36 out of 41 major industries maintained year - on - year growth. The growth of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and the production of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry showed a relatively rapid growth. The production of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased by 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively year - on - year.
China's national fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, and the manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%. After deducting the impact of price factors, the fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Month - on - month, the fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% in June.
China's real estate development investment from January to June decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. From January to June, the year - on - year decline in the sales area of newly - built commercial housing expanded by 0.6 percentage points compared with January to May; among them, the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 3.7%. The sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 4,424.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%; among them, the sales volume of residential buildings decreased by 5.2%.
The housing prices of 70 cities in China in June: The prices of new and second - hand houses in all tiers of cities continued to decline month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline as a whole narrowed. The prices of new and second - hand houses in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in second - and third - tier cities expanded to 0.6%. The year - on - year decline in housing prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow as a whole, but the year - on - year decline in the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities was 3%, and the decline expanded.
The China Chain Store & Franchise Association proposed to standardize the market order of instant retail and jointly resist the "involutionary" competition of price subsidies. In order to safeguard market fairness, protect consumer rights and interests, and promote the industry to return to the origin of value - based competition, the China Chain Store & Franchise Association hereby issues the following proposals to all members and related enterprises: Standardize the competition behavior of low - price subsidies and maintain market fairness and order; adhere to the bottom - line of operation and protect consumer rights and interests; build a diversified competition system and establish a long - term operation concept; strengthen active self - discipline and strengthen compliance management; fulfill social responsibilities and safeguard the industry ecosystem.
### Domestic Companies
Pop Mart: The revenue in the first half of the year increased by no less than 200% year - on - year, and the profit increased by no less than 350% year - on - year. Pop Mart said that the main reasons for the performance growth are as follows: The global recognition of the Pop Mart brand and its IP has been further enhanced, the proportion of overseas revenue has continued to increase, and the product cost has been continuously optimized.
Zhongji Xuchuang, the leader of the optical module industry: It is expected that the net profit in the first half of the year will increase by 52.64% - 86.57% year - on - year, and the demand for 800G optical modules is strong. The significant increase in the sales of high - end optical modules such as 800G is the core factor driving the performance growth. Before deducting the equity incentive expenses, the optical module business achieved a combined net profit of about 4 - 4.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 57.02% - 92.35% compared with the same period last year.
Wang Xingxing, the CEO of Unitree Robotics: The shipment volume of Unitree robots has increased significantly this year. In the next 3 - 5 years, humanoid robots will accelerate their application and implementation in various industries, including service, industrial scenarios, and rescue and disaster - relief scenarios.
Overseas Macro
US Stock Q2 Earnings Season Arrives: Profit Expectations Cool Significantly, Tariffs Become the Biggest Variable, Focus on Four Key Themes. Affected by tariffs, the current market expects S&P 500 constituents' second-quarter earnings to grow by 5%, which is the slowest profit growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. Bank of America believes that the recent market rebound indicates that corporate earnings to be announced in the coming weeks may be underestimated, and recommends investors focus on four key themes: capital expenditure guidance, layoff situations, foreign exchange impacts, and the impact of the "Big Beautiful Act".
Bank of America's Latest Institutional Survey: Investors Return to Risk Assets at a Record Pace. Bank of America's fund manager survey has long been known as a "famous contrarian indicator" and has accurately predicted key market turning points over the past year. The latest survey shows that global risk appetite has seen the fastest growth rate since 2001, with funds pouring into US stocks, European stocks, and technology sectors at a record pace, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line. The market is filled with a strong atmosphere of greed, and this indicator has issued a warning again, suggesting that the market may face adjustments.
Japanese Bond Crisis Enters a New Stage: 10-Year Yield Breaks Through the Warning Line, Hitting a New High Since 2008. The Japanese bond crisis has escalated, with the 10-year yield approaching 1.6%, a new high since 2008. Unlike ultra-long-term government bonds, the rise in the 10-year government bond yield has a more direct impact on the real economy. This unusual movement coincides with the eve of Japan's House of Councillors election. The market is worried that the ruling coalition's defeat may trigger a shift in fiscal policy, and the opposition party's campaign policies will push up the fiscal deficit, triggering a sell-off by "bond vigilantes", and Japan may repeat the UK's "Truss moment".
Japan's House of Councillors Election Imminent, Nomura Says "This Possibility is Increasing": Prime Minister Resigns, US-Japan Negotiations Stalled, Japan Faces Tax Hikes. Nomura said that multiple polls show that the possibility of Japan's ruling coalition losing its majority in the House of Councillors is significantly increasing. If it loses the election, it may lead to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation, the stagnation of US-Japan trade negotiations, and the risk of a 25% tariff. The market expects that Japan's potential new government may turn to a more expansionary fiscal policy, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike pace may be delayed, leading to the depreciation of the yen, but the impact on the stock market is divided.
Overseas Companies
JPMorgan Chase's Q2 Revenue of $45.7 Billion Exceeds Expectations, Net Profit of $15 Billion, Stock Trading Revenue Hits Record High. JPMorgan Chase's second-quarter revenue was $45.68 billion, with earnings per share of $5.24, exceeding analysts' expectations. The growth was mainly driven by the strong performance of the trading business in a volatile market environment and the recovery of investment banking business. Market volatility triggered by Trump's trade policies has created a favorable environment for the bank's trading department. JPMorgan Chase's US stock rose more than 2% before the market and closed down 0.7%.
As Bitcoin Hits a New High, Crypto Asset Management Giant Grayscale Applies for US IPO. Grayscale's submission of an IPO application is seen as the result of the Trump administration's shift to a crypto-friendly policy. Previously, the company had a fierce battle with the Biden administration's SEC over its Bitcoin ETF. This round of favorable crypto policies has also spawned listing applications from crypto exchanges such as Gemini and Bullish, and promoted the opening of US retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrency Exchange Company Figure Plans to Go Public in Autumn, Raising Up to $1 Billion. Currently, many cryptocurrency companies hope to take advantage of the White House's more friendly crypto policy environment and investors' high interest in the industry to actively promote listing.
Tesla Enters India's High-End Market, with Model Y Starting Price Near $70,000, Twice as Expensive as in China. Tesla opened its first showroom in Mumbai on Tuesday. The Model Y is priced at about $70,000, and reservations are now open, with deliveries expected to start in the third quarter. The high pricing is mainly due to India's 70% tariff on imported cars. Tesla chose the import method to test the Indian market and will compete with luxury brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz in India's high-end electric vehicle market.
Another Change in Tesla's Core Management, Report Says North American Sales Chief Steps Down. It is reported that Troy Jones, Tesla's vice president in charge of sales, service, and delivery, stepped down after 15 years with the company. He was responsible for Tesla's largest market - North America.
Apple Bets $500 Million on America's Only Rare Earth Merchant to Strengthen Local Supply Chain Layout. Apple will purchase US-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials' Texas factory, and the two sides also plan to build a new factory in Fort Worth, Texas. Just a few days ago, the US Department of Defense announced an investment of $400 million in MP Materials, acquiring a 15% stake in the company.
Industry/Concept
1. Securities Firms: Currently, the securities firm sector has multiple catalytic factors, such as high growth in interim report performance, Hong Kong's virtual asset innovation business, high prosperity in Hong Kong's primary and secondary markets, and mergers and acquisitions driving the concentration of the industry pattern. Pay attention to the recovery opportunities of the securities firm sector, with H-shares having more advantages.
2. Strategy: Huafu Securities pointed out that comparing the S&P 500 Industry Index, Stoxx 600 Industry Index, Hang Seng Composite Industry Index, and CSI 300 Industry Index, from this year's PB and ROE, the overvaluation level of US dollar assets (S&P 500 industries) is far ahead, while the valuation of Chinese assets (Hang Seng Composite Industry and CSI 300 Industry) is relatively low. Under the logic of the economic bottom, improved asset quality, and valuation switching, low PB targets are expected to benefit first.
3. Container Shipping: The birth of the Gemini Alliance will transform routes from pendulum routes to hub-and-spoke routes, replacing the efficiency of large ship trunk line transportation with increased demand for small ship transportation. Theoretically, a weekly European trunk line will add 40 small container ships of 2,000 TEU. The tight supply of shipping capacity supports the continuous rise of time charter and second-hand ship prices.
4. Thermal Power: Guotai Haitong Securities' research report pointed out that in recent years, the PB valuation of thermal power asset acquisition/sale transactions is significantly higher than the valuation level of thermal power in the secondary market, and thermal power stocks still have room for valuation improvement.
Today's News Preview
US June PPI.
US June Industrial Production.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Holds Press Conference in Beijing.
The Federal Reserve Releases the Beige Book of Economic Conditions.
New York Fed President Williams, Fed Governor Barr, Richmond Fed President Barkin, and Cleveland Fed President Hamark Deliver Speeches.
US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change Last Week.
<End of Full Text>
Disclaimer: The views in this article only represent the author's personal views and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, originality, and timeliness of the article information, nor does it assume any responsibility for any losses caused by the use or reliance on the article information.
Contact: Sarah
Phone: +1 6269975768
Tel: +1 6269975768
Email: xttrader777@gmail.com
Add: Lee Garden One, 33 Hysan Avenue, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
+1 6269975768
微信
Teams