Morning News

Source: Wall Street News

Market Overview

- The rally in the US stock market has subsided. Tech stocks have weighed on the broader market. The S&P 500 has narrowly achieved a five - day winning streak, while the Nasdaq has pulled back. The chip index and Nvidia, which fell more than 2%, have both ended their four - day winning streaks. Tesla initially dropped more than 4% intraday before turning higher, and Apple has seen a five - day gain. After NXP Semiconductors reported its financial results and warned of the impact of tariffs, its stock price plunged more than 8% in after - hours trading.

- Chinese - listed stocks in the US generally performed brightly. The China stock index rebounded to a three - week high. Among the popular Chinese - listed stocks, after Citi recommended paying attention to positive catalysts within 30 days, NIO saw a sharp increase of over 7%, Li Auto rose more than 3%, and Alibaba fell more than 1%.

- The actual estimated borrowing scale of the US Treasury Department in this quarter has not increased but decreased. The yield on the US Treasury bond hit a two - week low.

- The US dollar index has declined, the Japanese yen has rebounded more than 1%, the offshore RMB has once risen nearly 200 points and broken through 7.29. Bitcoin rose more than $2,000 intraday, breaking through $95,000, and then turned down.

- Gold has rebounded, with futures gold once rising nearly 2%. Crude oil has pulled back, turning down more than 2% intraday. US oil closed at a two - week low.

- During the Asian session, the A - share market fluctuated throughout the day. Many bank stocks hit all - time highs. The afternoon gains of Hong Kong stocks narrowed. Pop Mart hit a new high intraday, and most treasury bond futures moved higher.

News

- The Chinese Foreign Ministry: The Chinese and US sides have not held any consultations or negotiations on the issue of tariffs.

- The China Gold Association: In the first quarter, the holdings of domestic gold ETFs increased by 328% year - on - year, and the consumption of gold jewelry decreased by 26.85% year - on - year.

- Pop Mart has once again attracted attention. Its app has topped the charts for two consecutive days. There are long queues overseas, and its stock price has soared 10%.

- Alibaba has released and open - sourced Qwen3, which seamlessly integrates thinking modes, supports 119 languages, and is easy to call for agents.

- The borrowing expectation of the US Treasury Department in the second quarter has been sharply increased by more than three times to $514 billion. After excluding the impact of the debt ceiling, the borrowing demand has not increased but decreased.

- The manufacturing survey of the Dallas Fed in the stronghold of the US Republican Party has collapsed, and the respondents have focused on tariffs.

- "Price increases" have begun in the US. The average price of nearly 1,000 products on Amazon has increased by 29%, and the average price of the top 100 products on Shein has increased by 51%.

- There was a large - scale power outage in Spain and Portugal on Monday. People rushed to buy supplies in case of emergencies. At present, the power supply has been restored in some areas.

- Putin has announced a 72 - hour cease - fire starting from May 8 to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister said that to achieve peace, a cease - fire should be implemented immediately.

Market Closing Reports

- European and American stock markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.1%. The European STOXX 600 Index closed up 0.53%.

- A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65%.

- Bond market: At the end of the bond market trading day, the yield on the 10 - year benchmark US Treasury bond was approximately 4.21%, down nearly 3 basis points intraday; the yield on the 2 - year US Treasury bond was approximately 3.69%, down about 6 basis points intraday.

- Commodities: WTI June crude oil futures fell 1.54%. Brent June crude oil futures fell 1.51%. COMEX June gold futures rose 1.49%. London lead rose 1.1%, London nickel rose nearly 0.5%, and London zinc fell 0.5%.

Details of the News

Global Highlights

- The Chinese Foreign Ministry: At the regular press conference of the Foreign Ministry on Monday, a reporter asked that according to reports, President Trump said in an interview with Time magazine on April 22 that the Chinese President had called him. What is the Chinese side's comment on this? Are the two sides negotiating? Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that as far as he knew, there had been no phone calls between the two heads of state recently. He reiterated that the Chinese and US sides had not held any consultations or negotiations on the issue of tariffs.

- The China Gold Association: In the first quarter, the holdings of domestic gold ETFs increased by 328% year - on - year, and the consumption of gold jewelry decreased by 26.85% year - on - year. The complex and volatile geopolitical situation and economic uncertainty have further highlighted the hedging and value - preservation function of gold, and the investment demand for private gold bars and coins has increased rapidly and significantly.

- Pop Mart has once again attracted attention. Its app has topped the charts for two consecutive days. There are long queues overseas, and its stock price has soared 10%. On April 24, the latest series of LABUBU, a popular IP under Pop Mart, was released. The next day, the official app topped the shopping list of the US App Store. Pop Mart said that it saw the possibility of LABUBU "becoming a global super - IP" and would take the opportunity to promote LABUBU to become "the future Mickey Mouse and Pikachu".

- What does the great popularity of "LABUBU 3.0" in the US mean for Pop Mart? Morgan Stanley pointed out that the bag - hanging plush products of Pop Mart have become the company's most important growth catalyst due to their "fashion - practicality". With the company's rapid expansion in the US and Southeast Asia, its sales are expected to double in 2024 and increase by 47% in 2025.

- Alibaba has released and open - sourced Qwen3, which seamlessly integrates thinking modes, supports 119 languages, and is easy to call for agents. The Qwen3 series released this time includes two Mixture of Experts (MoE) models and six other models. Among them, the flagship model Qwen3 - 235B - A22B shows strong competitiveness in benchmark tests such as code, mathematics, and general ability compared with top - level models such as DeepSeek - R1, o1, o3 - mini, Grok - 3, and Gemini - 2.5 - Pro.

- The borrowing expectation of the US Treasury Department in the second quarter has been sharply increased by more than three times to $514 billion. However, after excluding the impact of the debt ceiling, the borrowing demand has not increased but decreased. The significant increase in the estimated net borrowing of the US Treasury Department in the second quarter is due to the fact that Congress has not raised the government debt ceiling so far, and the cash reserve at the beginning of the second quarter is much lower than expected. If the factor of the cash balance at the beginning of the quarter is not considered, the borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than the February expectation. Some analysts believe that this is because DOGE is indeed playing a role in improving the fiscal situation and reducing the financing demand.

- The new bond - issuing strategy of the US Treasury Department: stabilize short - term bonds, slow down long - term bonds, and closely monitor the "big donors" of stablecoins. On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department will announce the scale of bond auctions from May to July. The market expects that the Treasury Department will continue to issue bonds according to the established rhythm. It is expected that the quarterly redemption auction next week will remain at around $125 billion. Some people believe that the market may interpret this as the Treasury Department's preference for relying on short - term bonds, which is a positive signal for long - term bonds.

- The manufacturing survey of the Dallas Fed in the stronghold of the US Republican Party has collapsed, and the respondents have focused on tariffs. The April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in the US is - 35.8, the expected value is - 14.1, and the previous value is - 16.3. Almost all the respondents focused on one topic - tariffs. "What has happened in the news in recent weeks is really crazy."

- "Price increases" have begun in the US. The average price of nearly 1,000 products on Amazon has increased by 29%, and the average price of the top 100 products on Shein has increased by 51%. Since April 9, the prices of 930 products on the Amazon platform have increased, with an average increase of 29%. Most of the price increases of Shein in the US occurred on Friday. The average price of the top 100 products in the beauty and health category increased by 51%, and the prices of some category products soared as high as 377%.

- There was a large - scale power outage in Spain and Portugal on Monday. People rushed to buy supplies in case of emergencies. At present, the power supply has been restored in some areas. The power outage affected most of the Iberian Peninsula, forcing the Spanish Interior Ministry to declare a national emergency and activate the national - level three emergency response mechanism in Madrid and other areas. The Spanish Prime Minister said that a strong technical fluctuation in the European power system led to a large - scale power outage in the Iberian Peninsula and parts of southern France, and the relevant investigation is still ongoing.

- Putin has announced a 72 - hour cease - fire starting from May 8. According to CCTV, Russian President Putin announced a cease - fire during the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. The Russian side called on the Ukrainian side to make an equivalent arrangement, saying that if the Ukrainian side violated the cease - fire agreement, the Russian army would take timely and sufficient measures to respond. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister said that to achieve peace, a cease - fire should be implemented immediately.

- Gold has suddenly stopped rising, and long positions have decreased sharply. Analysts warn that the trend has "deviated" from the fundamentals. Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale said that the surge in gold call options after Trump's tariffs led to the inversion of the skewness index. Coupled with the sharp decrease in hedge fund long positions and the recent correction in gold prices, these are all reasons to be cautious about gold prices in the short term. The trend of gold has "deviated" from the "basic driving factors" such as the US dollar and real interest rates.

Domestic Macroeconomy

- The National Development and Reform Commission: China will introduce and implement a number of measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development. In terms of stabilizing the development of foreign trade, the main measures include increasing support on an industry - by - industry and enterprise - by - enterprise basis, helping export - oriented enterprises avoid risks, expanding the "going - global" of service products, and encouraging foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China. In terms of promoting consumption, the main measures include expanding service consumption, strengthening the care for the disabled elderly, promoting the expansion of automobile consumption, and constructing a skill - oriented salary distribution system. In terms of actively expanding effective investment, the main measures include improving consumption infrastructure, vigorously enhancing the enthusiasm of private investment, and establishing new policy - based financial tools.

- Shanghai has introduced a "new policy" on housing provident funds for the self - employed, without household registration restrictions! The contribution base and contribution ratio of the self - employed are both independently determined by individuals. According to the 2024 contribution standard, the minimum monthly contribution is 270 yuan, and the maximum is 8,860 yuan. The contribution ratio is not less than 10% and not higher than 24%. The self - employed can choose to contribute monthly, quarterly, or semi - annually, and can resume contribution at any time after suspension.

- How many Hong Kong stocks have public funds bought? According to CICC, as of the first quarter of 2025, the market value of Hong Kong stocks held by public funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks is 650.9 billion yuan. The proportion of Hong Kong stock holdings in their total stock investment market value has risen to 36.9%, reaching a five - year high. The proportion of Hong Kong stock holdings in actively managed equity - oriented funds has risen to a record high of 30.8%. In terms of industry allocation, public funds prefer the new economy, and the proportion of holdings has risen to nearly 80%. The e - commerce, Internet, and semiconductor sectors have seen the largest increases in holdings.

Domestic Companies

- Mindray Medical: Its revenue in the first quarter decreased by 12.12% year - on - year, and its net profit decreased by 16.81% year - on - year.

- WuXi AppTec: Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 20.96% year - on - year, and its net profit increased by 89.06% year - on - year. The main reasons for the profit growth include the improvement of operational efficiency and the contribution of non - recurring income. In terms of various business segments, the revenue of the chemical business increased by 32.9% year - on - year, accounting for nearly 80% of the total revenue. Among them, the revenue of the TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) increased by 187.6% year - on - year.

- SF Holdings: Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 6.9% year - on - year, the international business increased by 9.9%, and the profitability improved slightly.

- BOE: Its performance in the first quarter achieved double growth: the net profit increased by 64%, and the R & D investment continued to increase.

- Transsion Holdings: Its revenue in the first quarter decreased by 25.5% year - on - year, and its net profit decreased by 69.9% year - on - year.

- Haitian Flavor Industry: Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 8.08% year - on - year, and its net profit increased by 14.77% year - on - year.

- Tsingtao Brewery: Its net profit in the first quarter increased by 7.08% year - on - year, and the sales volume of the main brand increased steadily by 4.1%.

- CICC: Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 47.69% year - on - year, its net profit increased by 64.85% year - on - year, and the investment business increased significantly!

- Ningbo Bank: It released its first - quarter report, and the differentiated strategy has shown results.

- Sinopec: Its revenue in the first quarter decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, and its net profit attributable to the parent company plummeted by 27.6%.

- Shanghai Electric: Its net profit in the first quarter soared by 145.7%, and the gross profit of the main business increased.

- China State Construction: Its revenue and profit in the first quarter increased slightly, and the overseas contract increased by 1.5 times.

- Nanjing - Shanghai Expressway: Its revenue increased but its profit did not. Its revenue in the first quarter increased by 37.7%, and its net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.9%.

- Zhang Xiaoquan: Its net profit in the first quarter increased by 69.5%, but the cash flow was under pressure.

Overseas Macroeconomy

Big buyers in the US stock market are returning. Goldman Sachs expects that about 65% of companies will enter the share repurchase open period by the end of this week. According to Goldman Sachs' estimation, US stock enterprises have re-entered the share repurchase open window period, which will last until June 13. Goldman Sachs expects that currently about 40% of companies have entered the share repurchase open window, and it is expected that about 65% of companies will enter by the end of this week.

Did the US stock market form the strongest bullish pattern last week? If the proportion of rising stocks on the New York Stock Exchange among the total traded stocks rapidly climbs from less than 40% to over 61.5% within 10 days, the ZBT signal will be triggered, which often means that the market rapidly shifts from being extremely oversold to extremely overbought. Bank of America analysis shows that since 1939, in the 130 and 190 trading days after each occurrence of the ZBT signal, the S&P 500 Index has seen increases, with average increases of as high as 17.1% and 19.6% respectively.

The US stock market is facing a major test of technology earnings reports, but even good news can no longer drive the market. Research points out that in the current macro environment, companies that exceed earnings expectations only rise by an average of 50 basis points on the next day (T + 1), which is far lower than the historical average level of 101 basis points. Meanwhile, companies that fail to meet expectations fall by 247 basis points, which is more severe than the historical average level of a 206-basis-point decline.

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar will continue to depreciate, and the negative impact on the US economy won't be significant until mid-May or early June. Goldman Sachs believes that the advance purchases by US consumers may boost the consumption expenditure data for March and part of April, and this phenomenon has already started to show. At the same time, weak hiring is more likely to be the key variable in the job market than large-scale layoffs, which means that the data on unemployment benefit applications may not be as indicative as usual.

Goldman Sachs: Tariffs are equivalent to a tax increase, which will hit US production and employment, and the GDP growth rate may decrease by nearly 2 percentage points. Goldman Sachs predicts that the trade war on tariffs will cause a negative impact of nearly 2 percentage points, and the US GDP growth is expected to be only 0.5% in 2025. Tariffs affect the US economy through multiple channels. Firstly, the costs of industries relying on imported raw materials soar. Secondly, the competitiveness of US export enterprises is weakened due to overseas retaliatory tariffs and low-price dumping. Thirdly, if other countries restrict the export of rare earths, high-tech industries such as semiconductors and electronic products may experience production interruptions.

A senior economic official from the "Trump 1.0" era: The impact of tariffs will become evident across the United States by the end of next month, and the poor will suffer the most. The former director of the White House National Economic Council said that the "soft data" reflecting future expectations is weakening. Before commodity prices rise due to tariffs, people with lower income levels or economic strength will spend 100% of their salaries on purchasing goods, while the wealthy will save a higher proportion of their income, and the former will be more severely impacted.

The "Empire on which the Sun Never Sets" and the "New Continent": The 1930 trade war. Huachuang Strategy points out that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was not simply about trade protection. Behind it was the challenge of the country catching up in the Kondratieff cycle (the New Continent of the United States) to the dominant country (the "Empire on which the Sun Never Sets" of the United Kingdom). The rise of the US dollar shook the dominant position of the British pound. The collapse of the old order and the birth of the new order are the projection of industrial iteration in the financial dimension.

BlackRock "buys" the UK! The world's largest asset manager "sweeps up" British stocks, bonds, and even infrastructure. BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, believes that the British market is seriously undervalued, especially British bank stocks. Fink has more confidence in the British economy than last year and believes that the new government is working hard to solve key problems, and policies supporting economic growth are being gradually implemented. Data shows that BlackRock's assets in the UK are approximately 570 billion pounds.

Overseas Companies

The boom in data centers has not subsided, but the giants have indeed pressed the "pause button". Analyses point out that the overall capital expenditure in the AI field remains strong, and the market demand has not retreated but is in a "temporary pause". According to McKinsey's prediction, the data center market is expected to maintain a growth range of 20% to 25% in the next five to seven years, but there will be fluctuations in the growth rate from year to year.

Industry/Concepts

1. Humanoid Robots: China Aviation Securities points out that the deep-seated psychological need of humans to create their own kind has led to the birth of humanoid robots and their development in the direction of being more human-like. The rapid development of humanoid robots will also drive the application of new materials, and there will be great potential in structural materials, sensing and transmission materials, and energy materials.

2. Pig Farming: Tianfeng Securities points out that in the short term, hog withholding and secondary fattening support pig prices, but in the medium term, the contradiction between oversupply and the off-season demand is prominent. The industry may once again face the pressure of "increasing quantity and falling prices". Hog withholding triggering concentrated selling may accelerate the elimination of production capacity. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and the value of the live pig sector is prominent. Judging from the market value per head in 2025, the valuations of many stocks are in a relatively low historical range, and there may still be significant room for the market value per head to rise.

3. Beauty and Cosmetics: Research reports from Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities point out that in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, many brands in the beauty and personal care sector have focused on product innovation and achieved high growth in performance. Leading domestic brands, relying on strong organizational efficiency, are expected to continue to focus on product innovation and channel operation, realize brand rejuvenation and innovation, and increase market share. We are optimistic about the long-term growth potential of high-quality targets in the beauty and personal care sector.

4. AI Applications: Tech giants are all actively embracing the MCP ecosystem. The development of the MCP ecosystem is expected to expand the boundaries of Agent capabilities and accelerate the implementation of AI in various application scenarios.

Preview of Today's Key News

The JOLTS job openings in the United States in March.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the United States in April.

The S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index in the United States in February.

Coca-Cola and Pfizer release their earnings reports.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are solely the author's and do not constitute investment advice. Accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed, and no liability is accepted for losses arising from reliance on this information.