Morning News

# Market Overview and Key News 

Source: Wall Street CN

## Market Overview

Last Friday: Nvidia rebounded nearly 2%, helping the Nasdaq reverse a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 failed to rebound and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower for the second consecutive day, but both managed to eke out weekly gains. The Nasdaq fell for two straight weeks. Media reported that the UK Chancellor is considering abandoning plans to raise personal income tax, sending the 10-year UK gilt yield surging over 10 basis points. During the session, crude oil prices soared while gold and silver plummeted. Crude oil rebounded over two days to reverse weekly losses, with WTI crude jumping more than 3% at one point. Gold fell for two consecutive days but still posted a two-week winning streak, with COMEX gold futures dropping nearly 4% intraday; COMEX silver futures fell nearly 5% but rebounded over 5% for the week. In the Asian session, both A-shares and H-shares closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 4,000-point mark, the ChiNext Index dropped over 3%, and the computing hardware industry chain led the declines. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 2%, Baidu slid 7%, while innovative drugs stocks rose against the trend.

The cryptocurrency bear market intensified. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 intraday last Friday and breached $93,000 in early Asian trading on Monday, erasing all its gains for the year. It dropped nearly 4% from the daily high and more than $30,000 (over 26%) from its intraday record high of over $126,000 hit on October 6.

## Key News

Qiushi Journal published an important article by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee titled "Developing New Quality Productive Forces in Light of Local Conditions". Han Wenxiu published a signed article in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing the need to deeply understand the important expositions and policy arrangements for developing new quality productive forces in light of local conditions.

Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, outlining policy measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption.

Ministry of Finance: Effectively implement a proactive fiscal policy, adhere to expanding domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market.

Wu Qing: Accelerate research and planning for the strategic tasks and major initiatives of the capital market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, strive to make the market more resilient and stable, and the system more inclusive and attractive.

China released October economic data: Industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9% year-on-year, fixed asset investment fell by 1.7% year-on-year in the first 10 months, and real estate development investment dropped by 14.7% year-on-year. All indicators fell short of September's performance to varying degrees. Housing prices in all tiers of cities declined both month-on-month and year-on-year. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities narrowed to 0.9%, while the year-on-year decline widened.

State Administration for Market Regulation of China released the "Guidelines on Anti-Monopoly Compliance for Internet Platforms (Draft for Comment)", identifying eight types of new monopolistic risk scenarios.

In response to Takako Suzuki's provocative remarks on the Taiwan question, CCTV Yuyuan Tantian stated that China is prepared for substantive countermeasures against Japan, using the term "head-on strike" for the first time in China-Japan diplomatic contexts. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reminded Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently, and the Ministry of Education issued a warning for studying in Japan.

U.S. major economic data schedule confirmed: September non-farm payrolls will be released on November 20, and the Fed's preferred PCE indicator will be published on November 26.

Amid public dissatisfaction with the cost of living, the Trump administration removed some agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list, including dozens of common goods such as beef, coffee, and fruits. The 39% tariff, which has lasted for three months, will end: Switzerland reached an agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs to 15%. South Korea-U.S. trade agreement finalized: South Korea will invest $350 billion in the United States in exchange for tariff reductions and nuclear technology concessions.

Fed hawks gained prominence, with both current and next year's FOMC voters opposing a December rate cut, while Milan once again called for rate cuts. As of last Friday, market expectations for a December rate cut have fallen to 40%.

The cryptocurrency bear market intensified. Bitcoin fell below $93,000 in early Asian trading on Monday, erasing all its gains for the year and dropping more than $30,000 (over 26%) from its record high hit nearly five weeks ago.

UK government considers abandoning tax hike plans, sending UK gilt yields to their biggest gain since July and the pound tumbling in response.

Zhao Haijun of SMIC: Operated at nearly full capacity in the third quarter, with supply still falling short of demand in the fourth quarter. Full-year revenue is expected to exceed $9 billion, but memory prices have risen too much. Supply shortages have intensified, with Samsung reported to have raised memory chip prices by 30%-60%. Several mobile phone manufacturers have suspended memory chip purchases, and some have less than three weeks of inventory.

Berkshire Hathaway adjusted its major bets before Buffett's "retirement": Accelerated selling of Apple in Q3, reducing holdings by over $10 billion and initiating a position in Google. Bridgewater slashed its Nvidia position by 65% in Q3, halved holdings in Google and Meta, increased positions in U.S. broad-market indices, and liquidated emerging market ETFs. Hillhouse increased its position in Pinduoduo, initiated a position in Baidu, and liquidated its JD.com holdings in Q3. "Tiger Group" Q3 positions: Tiger Global sharply cut Meta holdings, Coatue drastically reduced CoreWeave positions, and Viking aggressively bought financial stocks.

## Market Closing Quotes

U.S. and European Stocks: The S&P 500 fell 0.05% to 6,734.11 points, up 0.08% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.65% to 47,147.48 points, rising 0.34% weekly. The Nasdaq gained 0.13% to 22,900.589 points, falling 0.45% for the week. Europe's STOXX 600 Index closed down 1.01% at 574.81 points, up 1.77% weekly.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97% to 3,990.49 points. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.93% to 13,216.03 points. The ChiNext Index slid 2.82% to 3,111.51 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond trading session, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at around 4.15%, rising about 3 basis points intraday and 5 basis points for the week. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield was around 3.61%, up about 2 basis points intraday and 5 basis points weekly.

Commodities: WTI November crude oil futures closed up 2.39% at $60.09 per barrel, rising about 0.57% for the week. Brent December crude oil futures gained 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel, up about 1.19% weekly. COMEX December gold futures closed down about 2.4% at $4,094.2 per ounce, rising about 2.1% for the week. COMEX December silver futures fell about 4.7% to $50.686 per ounce, up about 5.3% weekly.

# Details of Key News

## Global Heavyweight News

Qiushi Journal published an important article titled *Developing New Quality Productive Forces in Light of Local Conditions* by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. The article emphasizes that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, top priority must be given to developing new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions. Guided by technological innovation and rooted in the real economy, efforts should be made to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system.

Han Wenxiu: Gain a Profound Understanding of the Important Expositions and Policy Arrangements for Developing New Quality Productive Forces in Light of Local Conditions. We should cultivate and expand emerging industries and future-oriented industries, implement industrial innovation projects and large-scale application demonstration initiatives for new technologies, products and scenarios, and accelerate the development of industrial clusters in strategic emerging sectors such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy. We will vigorously promote venture capital development and foster new economic growth drivers including quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and the 6th-Generation Mobile Communication Technology.

Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, mapping out policy measures to enhance the adaptability between supply and demand of consumer goods and further boost consumption. The meeting pointed out that improving the alignment of supply and demand is an effective way to further unlock consumption potential and smooth economic circulation. It called for accelerating the innovative application of new technologies and models, strengthening the integrated empowerment of artificial intelligence, focusing on developing new products and value-added services in key industries and fields to continuously create new consumption growth points. Additionally, efforts should be made to foster new consumption scenarios and formats, enrich consumer financial products and services, and build a sound consumption environment.

Ministry of Finance: Earnestly and Effectively Implement a Proactive Fiscal Policy, Adhere to Expanding Domestic Demand, and Support the Building of a Strong Domestic Market. Lan Fo'an, Minister of Finance, stated that the government will effectively pursue a proactive fiscal policy, strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments, rationally determine the deficit ratio and debt scale, and comprehensively employ policy tools such as budgets, taxation, government bonds, and transfer payments. Greater support will be allocated to the modern industrial system, science and technology, education, social security, agriculture and rural areas, and ecological protection. We will strengthen coordination with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to enhance the synergy throughout the entire process of policy formulation and implementation.

Wu Qing: Accelerate Research and Planning for the Capital Market's Strategic Tasks and Major Initiatives During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period to Make the Market More Resilient, Stable, and Its System More Inclusive and Attractive. Wu Qing emphasized that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) system must deeply comprehend the decisive significance of the Two Establishments, strengthen the Four Consciousnesses, enhance the Four Matters of Confidence, and uphold the Two Safeguards. It should fully grasp the new arrangements and requirements for accelerating the building of a strong financial power set forth at the Plenary Session, and earnestly implement the work requirements put forward at the meeting on studying and implementing the spirit of the Plenary Session in the financial sector. Efforts should be made to step up research on the strategic tasks and major initiatives for the capital market in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, striving to build a more resilient and stable market with a more inclusive and appealing system. It will also work to improve the quality and value of listed companies, enhance the effectiveness and deterrence of regulatory law enforcement, advance opening-up to a deeper and higher level, and strengthen strict and solid Party self-governance across the CSRC system, so as to actively contribute the strength of the capital market to achieving the goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan set by the Party Central Committee.

China released its economic data for October, with the growth rates of industry, total retail sales of consumer goods, investment, and real estate sales all falling short of the previous month's figures to varying degrees.

In October, China's industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size rose by 4.9% year-on-year. While steel and cement output declined, high-tech manufacturing maintained a sound growth momentum. Crude steel output dropped by 12% year-on-year to 72 million tons in October, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.9% compared with the same period last year, marking five consecutive months of decline. Cement output also slid, with a 15.8% year-on-year drop in October and a 6.7% cumulative decline in the first ten months. In contrast, the high-tech manufacturing sector performed well, as its value-added increased by 7.2% year-on-year in October, outpacing the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size.

Dragged down by the automobile and home appliance sectors, China's growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in October, while retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry surged by 37.6% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.6291 trillion yuan in October, up 2.9% year-on-year and 0.16% month-on-month. Excluding automobiles, retail sales stood at 4.2036 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Specifically, retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry jumped by 37.6% year-on-year from 9.7% in the previous month; sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 14.6% year-on-year, reversing the 3.3% growth of the prior period; and automobile retail sales declined by 6.6% year-on-year, in contrast to the 1.6% increase in the previous month.

From January to October, China's fixed asset investment fell by 1.7% year-on-year, while investment in the manufacturing sector rose by 2.7% year-on-year. By industry, in the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.9% year-on-year, including a 3.8% rise in investment in the mining industry and a 12.5% growth in investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, commented, "The rapid decline in fixed asset investment reflects weak investment in the real estate sector and sluggish infrastructure investment."

From January to October, China's national real estate development investment dropped by 14.7% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly-built commercial residential buildings decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with the real estate climate index continuing to decline. During this period, total real estate development investment reached 7.3563 trillion yuan; the sales area of newly-built commercial residential buildings stood at 719.82 million square meters. By the end of October, the inventory of unsold commercial residential buildings decreased month-on-month, totaling 756.06 million square meters. The capital available to real estate development enterprises fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.8853 trillion yuan.

China's Housing Prices in 70 Cities for October: Housing prices declined both month-on-month and year-on-year across all tiers of cities. The month-on-month drop in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities narrowed to 0.9%, while the year-on-year decline widened. Commercial residential housing prices decreased both sequentially and annually in cities at all levels. For second-hand housing in first and second-tier cities, the month-on-month decline narrowed to 0.9% and 0.6% respectively compared with the previous month, while the year-on-year decline expanded to 4.4% and 5.2%. In Shanghai, the price of new residential housing rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, with the year-on-year growth rate expanding to 5.7%.

A report by Tao Chuan from Minsheng Macro pointed out that the slowed growth in industry, investment, and consumption in October indicates that economic headwinds in the fourth quarter have intensified compared with the third quarter. It is expected that investment will yield more immediate results from now until the first quarter of next year. Stabilizing investment will focus on connecting the two 500 billion yuan allocations (policy-based financial instruments and the remaining quota of local government bonds) with the early implementation of next year's fiscal budget. However, stabilizing household consumption awaits clearer policies for stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption next year.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) held the view that China's October economic data showed a broad-based decline due to weak demand and a high base effect. The growth of industry and consumption slowed down, the decline in fixed asset investment expanded, and notably, the real estate market witnessed simultaneous drops in both transaction volume and prices, with the decline rates of development and infrastructure investment widening. Given the lingering pressure from the high base in the next two months, there is an urgent need to intensify policy efforts and accelerate the implementation of new policy-based financial instruments.

The State Administration for Market Regulation of China released the *Guidelines on Anti-Monopoly Compliance for Internet Platforms (Draft for Comment)*, identifying eight types of new monopolistic risk scenarios. Public opinions on the draft will be solicited until November 29, 2025. The guidelines aim to guide platform operators to strengthen anti-monopoly compliance management and effectively prevent monopolistic risks. Though non-mandatory, the document highlights new monopolistic risks in eight scenarios, emphasizing the need to strengthen the review of platform rules and algorithm screening, establish a full-chain compliance management system, foster a fair competitive environment, and promote the innovative and healthy development of the platform economy.

From "Existential Crisis" to Nuclear Ambitions: What Is Takako Sanae Up To? According to CCTV News, Takako Sanae, Prime Minister of Japan, openly claimed in the Japanese Congress that "a contingency involving Taiwan" could constitute an "existential crisis situation" in which Japan may exercise the right to collective self-defense, implying a potential military intervention in the Taiwan question. This marks the first time that a sitting Japanese leader has expressed ambitions of military involvement in the Taiwan question since Japan's defeat in World War II.

The Ministry of Culture and Tourism solemnly reminded Chinese tourists on the 16th to avoid traveling to Japan recently. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a travel advisory on the 14th, noting that the security environment for Chinese citizens in Japan is continuously deteriorating. It stated that the recent blatant and provocative remarks by Japanese leaders on the Taiwan question have seriously undermined the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges between China and Japan, posing significant risks to the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan. The Ministry of Education also issued a warning, advising Chinese citizens to carefully plan their study arrangements in Japan.

CCTV Yuyuan Tantian: China Is Ready for Substantive Countermeasures Against Japan. China's recent responses included two key statements: "Japan must bear all the consequences" and "China will surely deliver a head-on blow". Notably, "head-on blow" was used for the first time in China-Japan diplomatic exchanges, signaling that China has made full preparations for substantive countermeasures against Japan.

Schedule for Major U.S. Economic Data Confirmed: September Non-Farm Payrolls to Be Released on November 20, and PCE, the Fed's Preferred Indicator, on November 26. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that it will release the September non-farm payrolls report on November 20 and data such as real wages for September on November 21. The U.S. Secretary of Labor stated that it remains uncertain whether the BLS can release the October Consumer Price Index. The U.S. Department of Commerce said it will publish October personal income, spending, and the PCE price index on November 26.

A "data frenzy" crucial to the market is set to sweep the United States starting this Thursday. While key indicators including the September non-farm payrolls and Q3 GDP will be released one after another, core data such as the October CPI may be permanently missing due to limitations in data collection methods. This "data fog" is plaguing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December. Some economists warn that the persistent lack of key data may lead to sharp divisions within the Fed.

The 39% Tariff to End After Three Months: Switzerland Reaches Agreement to Cut U.S. Tariffs to 15%. The Swiss government stated that the United States will reduce tariffs on Switzerland to 15%, the same level as those imposed on the European Union. The Swiss franc, which had hit a four-week high during the trading session, almost erased all its gains. U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Switzerland has committed to investing 200 billion U.S. dollars in the United States during the Trump administration, including 70 billion U.S. dollars next year, covering pharmaceuticals, gold refining, and railway equipment. Switzerland also pledged to purchase more Boeing aircraft.

South Korea-U.S. Trade Agreement Finalized: South Korea to Invest 350 Billion U.S. Dollars in the U.S. in Exchange for Tariff Cuts and Nuclear Technology Concessions. The core of the agreement is that South Korea will invest 350 billion U.S. dollars in strategic sectors such as shipbuilding and semiconductors in the United States. In return, the United States will reduce tariffs on South Korean products including automobiles and chips, and make significant concessions on core defense technologies that South Korea has long sought, such as nuclear submarine construction and uranium enrichment. Additionally, South Korea has promised to increase its defense budget and financial support for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

Amid Public Discontent Over Rising Living Costs, the Trump Administration Removes Some Agricultural Products from the "Reciprocal Tariff" List. Trump signed an executive order to exclude more than 100 agricultural products, including beef, coffee, and fruits, from the "reciprocal tariff" list. This move aims to address public outrage over soaring living costs, especially after the Democratic Party won the November elections by focusing on the affordability issue. Reportedly, when Trump announced the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" last spring, his economic team insisted there would be no exemptions.

Fed Hawks Gain Prominence in Opposing a December Rate Cut; Milan Reiterates Calls for Rate Cuts—Is Division Becoming the New Normal? Some policymakers at the Federal Reserve have recently stepped up warnings that progress in curbing inflation may slow down or even stall. Their vocal opposition this week has dimmed the prospects of another rate cut in December. Analysts note that this does not mean doves have conceded; though less vocal, they may still hold a majority in the Fed's policy-making committee. However, this divided situation may be a preview of the period after Powell steps down in 2026 under a new chairperson.

Fed Voters for This and Next Year Speak Out: Concerned About Inflation, Oppose December Rate Cut. The open opposition from hawks has roiled the market this week. As of last Friday, market expectations for a December rate cut have plummeted to 40%.

Is the Cryptocurrency Bear Market Intensifying? Bitcoin Falls Below 95,000 U.S. Dollars to a Six-Month Low, with ETF Outflows Reaching 870 Million U.S. Dollars in a Single Day. Bitcoin experienced its worst sell-off this year, dropping below 95,000 U.S. Dollars to a six-month low. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately 870 million U.S. Dollars on Thursday, and the market panic index fell to an extreme level. Tight liquidity has exacerbated volatility, with over 1 billion U.S. Dollars worth of leveraged positions liquidated in the past 24 hours. Analysts point out that cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to macroeconomic risks, and amid weak technical support, market sentiment is likely to remain sluggish.

Cryptocurrency Market in Panic After Sharp Declines; Bitcoin Fell Another 25% After the Last Similar Panic. On November 13, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 15, its lowest level since February this year. The last time the index fell below 20 was on February 27, after which Bitcoin dropped 25% to 75,000 U.S. Dollars within a month. Data from Santiment, a market sentiment analysis platform, showed a sharp surge in negative discussions about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, with sentiment levels far below normal. Analysts called for adopting the strategy of "buying when there's panic and selling when there's greed".

UK Government Considers Abandoning Tax Hike Plan; UK Bond Yields See Biggest Rise Since July, Pound Slumps. Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, decided to abandon the plan to raise income tax, triggering concerns about the sustainability of the UK's public finances. Following the announcement, UK stocks, bonds, and the pound all declined. The FTSE 100 Index fell by more than 1%, the pound weakened against the U.S. dollar, and government bond yields soared temporarily. Investors worry that the government may resort to multiple small-scale tax increases to fill the 30 billion-pound budget gap, which could push bond yields even higher. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have also cooled down accordingly.

Media Reports: Fed Convened an Emergency Meeting with Wall Street Banks to Discuss "Market Liquidity Pressures". Analysts warned that the market may face increased pressure in the coming weeks. After three years of quantitative tightening, banks' cash reserves have been depleted. As the year-end approaches, banks will further shrink their balance sheets to meet financial reporting requirements, which will only worsen the situation.

Zhao Haijun of SMIC: Near Full Capacity in Q3, Supply Still Falling Short of Demand in Q4; Full-Year Revenue Expected to Exceed 9 Billion U.S. Dollars, but Memory Prices Have Surged Excessively. Zhao Haijun stated that although customer stockpiling slowed down in Q4, a traditional off-season for the industry, the continuous iteration effect of the industrial chain has kept production busy. SMIC's production lines still face supply shortages. He also admitted that the sharp rise in memory prices in the industry will have a negative impact on terminal manufacturers amid the "memory super cycle". Goldman Sachs is optimistic about SMIC's long-term growth and maintains a "buy" rating.

### English Translation

The supply shortage has intensified, and Samsung is reported to have raised memory chip prices by 30% - 60%. Samsung Electronics sharply increased the prices of server memory chips by 30% - 60% in October, mainly due to a severe supply shortage caused by the global upsurge in AI data center construction. Previously, Samsung had postponed the official pricing announcement for October supply contracts. Analysts predict that Samsung may raise contract prices by 40% - 50% in the October - December quarter, which is higher than the industry - expected average increase of 30%.

Many mobile phone manufacturers have suspended their purchase of memory chips, and some have less than three weeks of inventory. Driven by the skyrocketing prices of upstream memory chips, numerous mobile phone makers have put off purchasing memory chips this quarter. The surge in demand for memory chips from data centers, fueled by the wave of large AI models, is one of the triggers for this round of memory chip price hikes. Meanwhile, the price increases have begun to impact the mobile phone industry.

Before Buffett's "retirement", Berkshire Hathaway adjusted its major investment bets: it accelerated the sale of Apple shares and initiated a position in Google in Q3. Berkshire has sold Apple shares for two consecutive quarters. In Q3, it offloaded 41.79 million Apple shares, more than doubling the sales volume in Q2. The market value decreased by approximately 10.6 billion US dollars in a single quarter, making Apple the stock with the largest reduction in holdings in Q3. It also cut its holdings in Bank of America by over 1.9 billion US dollars in Q3, the second - largest reduction. Over the past year or so, its holdings in Bank of America have been reduced by 45%. Additionally, Berkshire purchased 17.85 million new shares of Alphabet in Q3 for the first time, elevating Google's parent company to its tenth - largest holdings. Media reports suggest that this position - building might be the move of one of Berkshire's two investment managers rather than Buffett himself. Among its top ten holdings, only Chubb Limited saw an increase in positions in Q3.

Bridgewater Associates drastically reduced its holdings in Nvidia by 65% in Q3, halved its holdings in Google and Meta, increased positions in U.S. broad - market index funds, and completely liquidated its emerging market ETFs. As of September 30th, Bridgewater held 2.51 million shares of Nvidia, a sharp drop of 65.3% from the 7.23 million shares held at the end of Q2. Notably, Bridgewater had significantly increased its holdings in Nvidia just in the previous Q2. It sharply boosted its holdings in the U.S. broad - market ETF SPY by 75.3% to 4.05 million shares, accounting for 10.62% of its total holdings and becoming its largest position. Besides, Bridgewater reduced its holdings in Google by 52.6%, Meta by 48.3%, Microsoft by 36%, and Amazon by 9.6%.

Hillhouse continues to hold a heavy position in Chinese concept stocks. Its subsidiary HHLR Advisors, which focuses on secondary market investments, achieved a profit growth of 23.45% in Q3. By the end of Q3, the total value of its U.S. stock holdings reached 4.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 990 million US dollars or 32% from the previous quarter. Among these holdings, Chinese assets accounted for over 90%. HHLR increased its position in Pinduoduo, initiated a new position in Baidu, and fully sold its holdings in JD.com in Q3.

Position Adjustments of "Tiger - related Funds" in Q3: Tiger Global drastically cut its holdings in Meta, Coatue significantly reduced its stakes in CoreWeave, and Viking aggressively purchased financial stocks. According to the 13F filing, Tiger Global sold about 4.7 million Meta shares, dropping Meta from its largest to sixth - largest holding. In contrast to the trend, Coatue increased its holdings in Meta to make it its largest position but slashed its stake in CoreWeave by 62%. Viking Global more than tripled its holdings in PNC Financial Services, making it its largest position.

Could Nvidia's earnings report release be an awkward occasion? A well - known analyst said that the market will be "nervous" even if its performance is strong. Gene Munster, a prominent tech investor, argued that Nvidia is caught in a dilemma ahead of the earnings report. Overly strong performance guidance will trigger concerns about over - investment, while a modest upward revision will be regarded as a sign of slowing growth. Either way, market volatility may be inevitable. Nevertheless, he emphasized that Nvidia has a bright long - term prospect, and analysts are expected to raise their forecast for the company's 2026 revenue growth from the current 39% to around 45%.

Nvidia's earnings report is the focus of this week. Morgan Stanley stated that it will be the strongest in the past few quarters, shattering the notion that "growth has peaked".

#### Domestic Macroeconomy

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded to reporters' questions regarding the remarks made by Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs Karemans on Nexperia. China has always taken a responsible attitude, adopted practical measures to grant exemptions for compliant exports of civil - use - related products, and made every effort to restore the smooth operation and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. In the short term, thanks to China's efforts, the semiconductor supply chain crisis has eased to some extent. However, due to the Dutch side's inappropriate actions, the global semiconductor supply chain remains fragile and the situation is still grim. Disregarding the security and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain, the Dutch side has not taken any practical actions to resolve the issue. Instead, it has stood by as Nexperia (Netherlands) refused to supply wafers to Chinese enterprises and sent lawyer's letters to prevent Chinese foundries from supplying products overseas. This has left many automobile manufacturers facing the risk of supply disruptions and escalated an internal corporate dispute into a systemic risk affecting the global semiconductor supply chain.

Is the shift of deposits back in full swing? Financial data in October shows that residents' deposits are flowing into the capital market at an accelerated pace, and three key indicators have confirmed the return of this deposit shift trend, which has become a crucial positive signal in the current market. Although the growth rates of social financing and credit have slowed down due to seasonal factors and the decelerated pace of government bond issuance, effective social financing has risen for two consecutive months. This indicates that the monetary policy in 2026 will maintain a moderately accommodative stance focusing on three core principles: stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and coordinating with fiscal policies. Government bond purchases are likely to become the most important easing tool.

What do the changes in social financing and deposits indicate? According to a report by Zhang Yu from China Securities Co., Ltd., on the social financing front, the decline in corporate loans may help improve the balance between supply and demand. The weakness in residential loans is closely related to operational loans used for production and business activities. Although the absolute growth scale of consumer loans remains low, the growth volume is still higher than that in 2024 in terms of marginal changes. With residents shifting their deposits to non - bank institutions, the scale of corporate bond financing and domestic equity financing is expected to keep improving in the future.

#### Domestic Companies

After Jensen Huang's visit to Taiwan to secure production capacity, will TSMC urgently add to its capacity expansion plan and possibly raise its 2026 capital expenditure? Morgan Stanley predicts that in response to the strong demand from major AI clients such as Nvidia, TSMC is considering increasing its 2026 3 - nanometer production capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month on the existing basis, which will push the total monthly capacity to 160,000 - 170,000 wafers. This move may drive its 2026 capital expenditure to surge to 48 - 50 billion US dollars, far exceeding market expectations. It is also regarded by the market as a positive catalyst for the global semiconductor equipment industry.

Has the White House set its sights on Alibaba late at night? It may all stem from "Qwen Panic". Currently, a sentiment known as "Qwen Panic" is spreading in Silicon Valley. Open - source models represented by Alibaba's Qwen large model have cost advantages and are attracting a growing number of clients through open - source strategies. In contrast, the closed - source path in the United States may become unsustainable, and concerns about the debt risks arising from the vigorous development of AI have emerged. This sentiment is consistent with the market unease triggered by DeepSeek earlier this year. It is based on the fact that open - source large models like Qwen are capturing an increasingly large share of the market.

Behind JD.com's profit pressure in Q3: food delivery business is too costly, growth in its core electronics and home appliance business has slowed down, while AI - driven advertising has become a bright spot for growth. Although JD.com's revenue and net profit in Q3 exceeded expectations, huge losses from new businesses such as food delivery have eroded its operating profits. Meanwhile, the growth rate of its traditional core businesses of electronics and home appliances has slowed down to 5%. Despite the accelerated growth of AI - driven advertising revenue, investment banks generally believe that the market will focus on the management's statements regarding investment in the food delivery business in the short term to assess the company's future profitability.

The food delivery competition has entered a new phase: order volume is declining while average customer spending is rising. Meituan is expected to achieve break - even as early as mid - 2026. JPMorgan Chase stated that the market order volume has dropped from a peak of 151 million orders in September to 145 million orders in October, and is projected to further decrease to 141 million orders in November, mainly due to reduced subsidies and seasonal factors. Meituan is expected to reach the break - even point in mid - 2026, while Alibaba may not get close to break - even until the end of 2026. Subsidies are expected to gradually decrease in the first quarter of 2026, at which point the industry is likely to shift from money - burning competition to rational operation.

Another photovoltaic giant has entered the energy storage sector. Following Trina Solar and JinkoSolar, LONGi plans to take control of JK Energy System Co., Ltd. LONGi Green Energy has officially announced this major strategic layout. It intends to gain control of the energy storage system integrator JK Energy System by means of equity acquisition and voting rights entrustment, securing approximately 62% of the voting rights. This initiative aims to create a new growth engine to keep pace with competitors like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar. LONGi hopes that this transaction will help it break through the predicament in its core photovoltaic business and seize the enormous market opportunities brought by the integration of renewable energy systems.

Huawei will release a groundbreaking AI technology on November 21st, which can increase the utilization rate of computing resources such as GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) and NPUs (Neural Processing Units) from the industry average of 30% - 40% to 70%, thereby significantly unlocking the potential of computing hardware. This technology shares similarities with the core technical route of the Israeli AI startup Run:ai, which was acquired by Nvidia for 700 million US dollars at the end of 2024.

#### Overseas Macroeconomy

Goldman Sachs Trading Desk: Speculative stocks are being sold off aggressively, and momentum trading in US stocks suffered its largest drop since the DeepSeek impact on Thursday. Data from Goldman Sachs' trading desk shows that high - beta momentum pair trading plummeted by 7% on Thursday, the biggest decline since the DeepSeek incident. The sell - off mainly targeted speculative sectors such as AI - related stocks, Bitcoin - sensitive stocks, and quantum computing stocks. Five major factors triggered the decline: profit - taking before Nvidia's earnings report, doubts about the return on investment in AI infrastructure, hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, corporate layoffs, and year - end deleveraging pressure. The market is waiting for signals such as Nvidia's earnings report to determine when the sell - off will stabilize.

In the past month, speculative stocks in the quantum, AI, and energy sectors such as Oklo, Ionq, Coreweave, and Bloom Energy have experienced a drastic plunge. These popular concept stocks have plummeted by 33% since mid - October after surging nearly 200% previously. The turning point came during the earnings season: 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, prompting investors to abandon speculative stocks that only rely on storytelling. More critically, even giants like Oracle have been questioned about their solvency because they provide services to OpenAI, a company with high capital consumption. This has completely shattered the market's optimistic expectations for small AI - concept companies.

Electric power is reshaping the landscape of the AI competition! According to Goldman Sachs' actual measurements, by 2030, the US "backup power capacity" will fall below the critical threshold, while China will still have a massive 400GW of backup power. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, the US "effective backup power capacity" is expected to drop below the industry - critical 15%. Especially in areas with dense data centers, this may become a bottleneck for AI development. In contrast, benefiting from large - scale investment in power infrastructure, China is expected to have approximately 400 gigawatts (GW) of backup power by 2030, more than three times the expected global demand from data centers.

Morgan Stanley's Top 10 Robot Predictions for 2026: Humanoid robots will be more of a gimmick, fully autonomous driving will take off, the first trillion - dollar unicorn will emerge, and brain - computer interfaces will move towards "superhuman capabilities". Morgan Stanley holds that in 2026, humanoid robots will be more for marketing and fundraising purposes rather than being put into large - scale productive use. The Magnificent Seven and OpenAI will accelerate the deployment of embodied intelligence, and traditional automobile manufacturers will undergo comprehensive "robotization". Tesla will achieve full autonomous driving and further deepen its integration with xAI, and its robotics factory will become the "matrix" for the next - generation robotics system.

How long will the US stock decline last? Historical data shows that sell - offs after sharp rallies last an average of 25 trading days, and the current sell - off has already lasted 21 days. Morgan Stanley analysis points out that the depth of the current sell - off of momentum stocks is similar to historical patterns, with its long position portfolio having dropped by 19% from its peak, approaching the historical average decline of 22%. Although the sell - off may be in its latter half in terms of duration, the market structure remains fragile. Due to the highly concentrated positions of both institutional and retail investors, coupled with technical risks in the options market, speculative sectors will continue to face pressure. However, a broad market decline may present buying opportunities for high - quality stocks and broad - based indices.

Signs of tightness have reappeared in US liquidity indicators, and is the market forcing the Federal Reserve to "restart QE"? Signs of tightening have emerged again in the US short - term financing market. The spread between SOFR, a key interest rate indicator, and the reserve rate has widened to 8 basis points, indicating that bank reserves are shifting from an abundant state to a scarce one. This change occurred shortly after the Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening. The market expects the Fed to be forced to launch "reserve management purchases" to inject liquidity. Although the Fed considers this a technical operation, the market has interpreted it as a disguised new round of quantitative easing (QE).

Yellen warns: The US political system is facing a "mortal danger" that is eroding the foundation of economic prosperity. The former US Treasury Secretary warned that the US democratic system is confronting a "mortal danger", as policy - making is increasingly dominated by personal will rather than the rule of law, which poses a threat to the country's economic fundamentals. She pointed out that the Trump administration has eroded the rule of law, put pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve, and suppressed dissenting voices, resulting in widespread fear in the business community and damaged investment confidence. Despite the strong performance of the stock market, Yellen argued that the AI boom has concealed systemic risks, which will undermine the US leadership in technology and innovation in the long run.

The EU plans to implement centralized supervision over the cryptocurrency industry, which may subvert the existing MiCA regulatory framework. The European Commission has proposed that the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) directly act as the regulator for all cryptocurrency service providers operating within the EU and be responsible for authorizing new businesses. Currently, in accordance with the EU's 2023 Markets in Crypto - Assets Regulation (MiCA), cryptocurrency enterprises only need to obtain authorization from at least one EU member state to operate across the entire EU.

#### Overseas Companies/Industries

Is the trillion - dollar return on AI investment overstated? Now everyone is asking: How many years is the service life of GPUs? The shorter the equipment depreciation cycle, the faster corporate profits will be eroded. Whether Nvidia's high - priced GPUs will depreciate rapidly due to technological iteration has become a controversial focus in the market. Giants such as Google, Oracle, and Microsoft once expected their servers to last up to six years. However, Microsoft's latest disclosure shows that the service life of its servers ranges from two to six years. Michael Burry, a well - known short - seller, believes that the actual service life of server equipment is only about two to three years, claiming that these companies have overstated their profits as a result.

The costly gamble on AI: Oracle's debt has surged, and its stock price has plummeted by 30%, leading the decline among tech stocks. Oracle's stocks and bonds have both been severely hit: its stock price has dropped by nearly 30% in a month, and its bond prices have fallen by 6%. Its aggressive AI strategy has led to a sharp increase in debt, with long - term debt surging from 75 billion US dollars a year ago to 96 billion US dollars, and is expected to reach 290 billion US dollars by 2028. Its free cash flow is negative, and its debt - to - equity ratio is as high as 500%. Credit rating agencies have warned that this capital - intensive expansion model is inconsistent with an investment - grade balance sheet and poses significant credit risks.

Google to Invest $40 Billion in Data Centers in Texas. Google plans to invest $40 billion in Texas by 2027 to build three new data centers. This investment is part of Google's planned capital expenditure of over $90 billion this year.

Kioxia's Earnings Miss Triggers Sell-Off; Seagate Plummets, Leading U.S. Storage Stocks Sharply Lower. Kioxia Holdings' adjusted net profit for the second fiscal quarter plummeted by over 60% year-on-year. The earnings miss sparked a chain reaction in the U.S. storage sector: Seagate's stock price fell 7.29%, Western Digital dropped 5.39%, and Micron Technology slid 3.25%. Analysts believe Kioxia's poor performance may stem from its fixed-price agreement to supply mobile NAND chips to Apple. Amid a sharp rise in spot prices, this pricing mechanism prevented Kioxia from benefiting from the market rally.

Walmart Faces New Challenges: Unexpected Announcement of CEO's Departure After Over a Decade at the Helm. Doug McMillon, the CEO who led Walmart's e-commerce transformation, will step down on January 31 next year. John Furner, CEO of Walmart U.S., will take over the next day. The change comes as Walmart grapples with multiple challenges, including tariff impacts, weak consumer demand, and AI-driven disruptions in the retail industry. Following the announcement, Walmart's stock price fell 3.6% at one point.

### Industry/Concept

1. 6G |

### Today's News Preview

- Japan's Q3 GDP.

- Earnings reports of Geely Auto, Zeekr, and Xpeng Motors.

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The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investors' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Investors should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their own circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this article are at the investor's own risk.