International oil prices turned lower after opening higher, with WTI falling more than 1% during the day, Korean stocks closing up 1.1%, U.S. stock futures rising, and Bitcoin rising more than 12% during the month.

# Zhao Ying, Zhang Yaqi

Source: WallStreetCN

Marginal signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a rebound in global equity futures. South Korea’s KOSPI closed up 1.1%, while U.S. stock futures rose 0.6%, poised to end a four-day losing streak. Brent crude briefly climbed to $106.50 per barrel before paring gains to around $104. WTI crude futures fell more than $1 to $97.63 per barrel, having earlier risen over 3%. Bitcoin surged as much as 3.7% to above $74,400, bringing its monthly gain to 12.5%—a stark outperformance versus gold, which has dropped 4.9% in March.

Marginal signs of easing in the Middle East have spurred a rebound in global equity futures, a pullback in oil prices from elevated levels, and a resilient rally in Bitcoin, making it one of the best-performing assets amid the geopolitical turmoil.

U.S. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% on Monday, on track to snap a four-day losing streak. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Donald Trump told NBC in a phone interview on March 14 that Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but he is not prepared to reach an agreement “because the terms are not good enough.” Although Iran quickly denied having sought talks or a ceasefire, the comments still helped lift market sentiment to some degree.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar softened, with the dollar index falling 0.2% and weakening against nearly all major currencies—after briefly serving as a safe-haven favorite amid the Middle East conflict. In commodities, Brent crude spiked to $106.50 per barrel following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, before trimming gains to around $104. U.S. Treasuries edged higher, with the 10-year yield slipping 2 basis points to 4.26%.

Bitcoin stood out particularly. During Asian trading hours on Monday, it rose as much as 3.7% to above $74,400, bringing its March advance to 12.5%—a sharp outperformance versus gold’s 4.9% decline over the same period, gradually showcasing its macro hedging attributes.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.1% at 53,751.15. The Topix index fell 0.5% to 3,610.73. South Korea’s KOSPI closed up 1.1% at 5,549.85.

U.S. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% on Monday, poised to end a four-day losing streak.

Dubai’s main stock index extended losses to 3.1%.

The dollar index fell 0.2%.

U.S. Treasuries edged higher, with the 10-year yield slipping 2 basis points to 4.26%.

Brent crude briefly climbed to $106.50 per barrel before paring gains to around $104. WTI crude futures fell more than $1 to $97.63 per barrel, having earlier risen over 3%.

Spot gold dipped 0.16% to $5,011.84 per ounce.

Bitcoin rose as much as 3.7% to above $74,400, with a 12.5% gain so far this month.

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## Market Sentiment Recovers but Confidence Remains Fragile

As diplomatic signals emerge, global asset classes have broadly stabilized. The MSCI All-Country World Index was little changed after three straight days of losses, Asian equities edged up 0.1%, and European stocks looked set to open higher.

Yet several market watchers remain cautious on the rebound. Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets, said: “Markets are seeking stability but have not turned optimistic. Equities may react positively to any signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, but with the threat of further strikes lingering and diplomatic efforts still patchy, conviction is weak and positioning is likely to remain highly sensitive.”

Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, also noted that policy direction under the Trump administration remains highly uncertain, and “most market participants are still extremely cautious.”

Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg’s Instant Markets Strategist, said sentiment in Asia has improved, but “investor conviction remains weak, short-term moves could stay volatile, and traders are quick to adjust positions on any Middle East-related headlines.”

Brent crude briefly climbed to $106.50 per barrel before paring gains to around $104.

Spot gold dipped 0.16% to $5,011.84 per ounce.

## Kharg Island Attack Shifts Oil Pricing to “Disruption” Rather Than “Full Shock”

According to CCTV News, the U.S. Central Command said on March 14 local time that U.S. forces conducted a large-scale precision strike on Iran’s Kharg Island overnight on March 13. The move briefly exposed energy markets to fresh volatility risks. Brent crude has surged sharply since the outbreak of hostilities, now trading at its highest level since 2022. The oil price spike has stoked inflation fears, pushing Treasury yields higher, strengthening the dollar, and pressuring global equities.

Trump also warned that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. targets could expand to energy infrastructure. Iran’s Supreme Leader had previously said the strait should remain closed as long as the conflict continues, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later clarified it would only be shut to “hostile” vessels—two LPG tankers bound for India have since passed through smoothly.

Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago, said a significant geopolitical risk premium was already priced into oil last week. “Traders are now waiting for clear signs of actual supply losses before pushing prices higher,” he noted. Following the Kharg Island attack, “markets are pricing in supply disruptions, not a full-blown supply shock.”

## Bitcoin Defies Geopolitics as Institutional Inflows Persist

Against a backdrop of broad pressure on safe-haven assets, Bitcoin has charted a distinctly resilient path during the Middle East crisis. During Asian hours on Monday, Bitcoin rose as much as 3.7% to above $74,400, while Ethereum jumped 6.9%, Solana 6.1%, and XRP 4.7%.

Bitcoin has gained 12.5% in March, while gold has fallen 4.9%, marking a sharp divergence. Caroline Mauron, Co-Founder of Orbit Markets, said: “Crypto sentiment has stayed bullish over the past week despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. A break above $75,000 now looks highly likely, with both retail and strategic buyers viewing the deepest phase of crypto declines as behind us.”

Sustained institutional inflows confirm returning confidence. According to Bloomberg data, 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw combined net inflows of over $763 million last week, marking a third straight week of inflows, with total March inflows reaching $1.3 billion. Rachael Lucas, Analyst at BTC Markets, noted that BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about 78% of last week’s inflows, “reflecting conviction buying rather than speculative rotation.”

Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer at BTSE, said if signs of de-escalation emerge, Bitcoin “could rally sharply and retest $100,000”; if tensions drag on, a pullback to $60,000 is possible.

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