Morning News

# Source: Wall Street见闻 (Wall Street CN)

## Market Overview

International oil prices retreated, easing inflation concerns, as hopes grew that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would ease and multiple countries might release more crude oil reserves. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, led by the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.

Meta rose 2.3%, and Nebius surged 15%. Reports said the two companies reached a five-year AI infrastructure supply agreement worth approximately $27 billion. NVIDIA rose 1.6%, with the company projecting at least $1 trillion in revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin chips by 2027. Micron Technology gained 3.6%.

Falling oil prices pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower across the board. The 10-year yield fell 5 basis points, and the 2-year yield dropped more than 4 basis points.

Hopes for a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices reduced safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. The dollar fell 0.5%. Bitcoin rose more than 3%, breaking above $74,000, while Ethereum surged 10%. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, mainly benefiting from capital inflows into BlackRock’s newly launched staked ETH ETF.

Gold traded lower by 0.25% in volatile moves, while silver saw a deep V-shaped rebound and closed flat. U.S. crude oil fell more than 5% during the session, and Brent crude dropped over 3% at one point, falling below $100.

During Asian trading hours, China’s ChiNext Index rose more than 1%, with memory chips surging. Hua Hong Semiconductor saw a sharp rally, while “old-economy stocks” such as agriculture and liquor rose sharply. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 2%.

## Key News

### China

- China and the U.S. held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France. The two sides are considering establishing a working mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment cooperation. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and U.S. teams held in-depth, candid, and constructive consultations. China opposes the U.S. unilateral Section 301 investigation.

- Premier Li Qiang: Accelerate the development of a new generation of intelligent manufacturing and systematically advance the construction of major infrastructure networks.

- National Financial Regulatory Administration: Speed up the establishment of a financing system compatible with the new model of real estate development.

- China released a series of economic data. Consumption rebounded, investment unexpectedly turned positive, and the real estate sector continued to adjust.

### Overseas

- Trump hinted at attacks on oil facilities on Khark Island, called on Europe and other regions to escort ships, and complained that some countries were unenthusiastic. Germany and Italy refused military participation. A key oil hub in the UAE partially resumed operations after Fujairah was attacked again earlier, leading to a full suspension of oil loading and unloading. Bessent: The U.S. has quietly allowed some vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices will be well below $80 in a few months.

- NVIDIA launched DLSS 5, with Jensen Huang declaring the “GPT moment for graphics” has arrived. Huang said the company expects at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chips by 2027. Samsung released HBM4E and deepened its cooperation with NVIDIA.

- Nebius rose nearly 15% on reports that Meta will partner with the company on AI over the next five years, with spending reaching up to $27 billion.

- The Trump administration asked a judge to reconsider its decision to quash a subpoena for Jerome Powell.

- The U.S. SEC is preparing new rules to eliminate the requirement for listed companies to disclose quarterly earnings, replacing it with semi-annual disclosures.

## Market Closing

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: +1.01% to 6,699.38 points

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.83% to 46,946.41 points

- Nasdaq Composite: +1.22% to 22,374.178 points

- European STOXX 600: +0.44% to 598.47 points

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: -0.26% to 4,084.79 points

- Shenzhen Component Index: +0.19% to 14,307.58 points

- ChiNext Index: +1.41% to 3,357.02 points

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: -5.68 bps to 4.2199%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: -3.94 bps to 3.6774%

### Commodities

- WTI Crude Oil (April futures): -5.28% to $93.50/barrel

- Spot Gold: -0.23% to $5,007.93/ounce

- Spot Silver: +0.33% to $80.8580/ounce

# Detailed News

## Global Highlights

### China

- **China-US Economic and Trade Consultations in Paris**

China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France. The two sides agreed to explore the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment, continue to leverage the role of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand practical cooperation, and promote the sustained, stable and sound development of bilateral economic and trade relations.

The two sides are considering establishing a working mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment cooperation. Li Chenggang stated that the topics discussed included bilateral tariff levels under the new circumstances, the possible further extension of arrangements related to bilateral tariffs and relevant non-tariff measures, the promotion of bilateral trade and investment cooperation, and each other's economic and trade concerns. The US side briefed China on the adjustment of its latest tariff measures and relevant considerations for the next step, and China expressed concern about the resulting uncertainties. The two sides agreed to jointly commit to maintaining the stability of bilateral economic and trade relations.

Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams held in-depth, candid and constructive consultations, and China opposes the US unilateral Section 301 investigation. On March 16, Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, said that over the past day and a half, the Chinese and US teams had held in-depth, candid and constructive consultations. Through this consultation, the two sides have reached preliminary consensus on some topics, and the consultation process will continue in the next step.

- **Premier Li Qiang: Accelerate the Development of a New Generation of Intelligent Manufacturing and Systematically Advance the Construction of Major Infrastructure Networks**

The priorities are: first, to further advance the development of a unified national market; second, to actively plan and promote the expansion and upgrading of the service industry; third, to accelerate the development of a new generation of intelligent manufacturing; fourth, to systematically advance the construction of major infrastructure networks; fifth, to increase investment in people and improve people's livelihoods; and sixth, to better respond to external shocks and challenges under the new circumstances.

- **National Financial Regulatory Administration: Accelerate the Establishment of a Financing System Adapted to the New Model of Real Estate Development**

The meeting emphasized that we should vigorously, orderly and effectively advance the resolution of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, firmly hold the bottom line of preventing "explosive risks"; accelerate the establishment of a financing system adapted to the new model of real estate development. We will comprehensively strengthen the "Five Major Regulations" and deepen the rectification of "black and gray industries" in the financial sector. We will promote capital replenishment by large state-owned commercial banks and study diversified capital replenishment for small and medium-sized financial institutions. We will do a good job in the "Five Major Articles" of finance, and adhere to benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption.

- **China Releases a Series of Economic Data: Consumption Rebounds, Investment Unexpectedly Turns Positive, Real Estate Continues to Adjust**

 - **Retail Sales**: China's retail sales of consumer goods from January to February rose 2.8% year-on-year, with catering and upgraded goods leading the growth. The total retail sales reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, nearly 2 percentage points faster than in December last year. The Spring Festival effect was significant, with catering revenue up 4.8% and online retail sales up 10.3%; sales of communication equipment and gold, silver and jewelry both rose by more than 10%, and the potential of upgraded consumption is accelerating.

 - **Industrial Output**: China's value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February rose 6.3% year-on-year, with the electronic equipment manufacturing industry growing 14.2%. Of the 41 major industrial sectors, 35 saw year-on-year growth in value-added. The manufacturing of computers, communications and other electronic equipment rose 14.2%, and the manufacturing of railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment rose 13.7%. In terms of product output, 1.604 million new energy vehicles were produced, down 13.7%; crude oil processing volume reached 122.63 million tons, up 2.9%.

 - **Fixed Asset Investment**: China's urban fixed asset investment from January to February turned from decline to growth, rising 1.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up 11.4%. By sector, infrastructure investment rose 11.4% year-on-year, manufacturing investment rose 3.1%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1%. Investment in high-tech industries rose 5.1% year-on-year, with investment in the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft and equipment, R&D and design services, and information services rising 20.2%, 20.6% and 16.5% respectively.

 - **Real Estate**: China's real estate development investment from January to February fell 11.1% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing fell 13.5% year-on-year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing reached 818.6 billion yuan, down 20.2%, with the decline expanding by 7.6 percentage points, of which residential sales fell 21.8%.

 - **Housing Prices**: In February, the month-on-month decline in housing prices in 70 cities continued to narrow. The month-on-month decline in the property market continued to narrow in February, with new home prices in first-tier cities turning from decline to flat overall. New home prices in Beijing and Shanghai both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and the recovery momentum of second-hand homes also accelerated. However, year-on-year pressure cannot be ignored, with new home prices in first-tier cities still down 2.2% year-on-year, and second-hand home prices generally falling by more than 6% year-on-year.

 - **Analysis**: Guosheng Macro's Xiong Yuan team said that the economy got off to a good start in January-February, with more positives than negatives: the positives were that imports and exports strengthened sharply beyond expectations, investment growth rebounded significantly, and infrastructure investment turned from decline to growth; the negatives were that the real estate sector continued to adjust, with declines in sales, new construction, construction and completion widening, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level, reflecting insufficient domestic demand and weak expectations. Looking ahead, with the front-loaded policy implementation and the data for the first two months, the first quarter is expected to break through.

### Overseas

- **NVIDIA Launches DLSS 5, Jensen Huang Declares the "GPT Moment for Graphics"**

DLSS 5 uses a real-time neural rendering model to inject "cinematic" lighting and material details into pixels, aiming to achieve interactive visuals in games that approach Hollywood-level effects. It will be launched for mainstream games this fall and has received support from major players including NetEase, Tencent and Ubisoft.

Jensen Huang made a bold prediction: Blackwell and Rubin chips will generate at least $1 trillion in revenue by 2027. After Huang announced this forecast, NVIDIA's stock price hit an intraday high, rising nearly 5%. At the end of October last year, Huang said that the data center business related to Blackwell and Rubin would achieve a combined revenue of $500 billion from 2025 to 2026.

- **Samsung Unveils HBM4E and Deepens Cooperation with NVIDIA, Accelerating the AI Computing "Storage Race"**

HBM4E will achieve a single-pin transmission speed of 16Gbps and a maximum stack bandwidth of approximately 4TB/s. Compared with previous HBM products, it further enhances the data throughput required for AI model training and inference, and is regarded as key infrastructure supporting trillion-parameter models and the expansion of AI data centers. Samsung stated that its HBM product roadmap will be optimized for NVIDIA's next-generation AI platform, including providing complete storage solutions for future AI systems.

- **Nebius Surges Nearly 15% on Reports Meta to Spend Up to $27 Billion on AI Partnership Over Five Years**

Meta has signed a five-year agreement worth up to $27 billion with AI infrastructure company Nebius. Under the agreement, Nebius will provide Meta with $12 billion in dedicated computing power starting in early 2027, and Meta has also committed to purchasing up to $15 billion in additional capacity. This is Meta's second large-scale bet on Nebius following last year's $3 billion cooperation, highlighting its determination to expand its AI strategy.

- **Trump Administration Asks Judge to Reconsider Decision Quashing Powell Subpoena**

Lawyers for the Trump administration on Monday asked U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg to reconsider his earlier ruling quashing a grand jury subpoena for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. An appeal by the Trump administration could prolong Trump's efforts to install former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh in the role, a point repeatedly raised by key Republican Senator Thom Tillis.

- **U.S. SEC Prepares New Rules to Replace Quarterly Earnings Disclosures with Semi-Annual Reports**

The new rules are expected to make quarterly earnings disclosures optional rather than eliminating them entirely. The regulator could unveil the proposal as early as next month, and there is no guarantee it will ultimately be implemented.

## Selected Research Reports

- **Goldman Sachs Warns: If Oil Price Shock Persists, S&P 500 Could Plunge 19% to 5,400 in Worst-Case Scenario**

Goldman Sachs' latest report sounded the alarm: an Iran war combined with an oil price shock could push the S&P 500 down 19% from current levels to 5,400 in an extreme scenario, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio compressing to 16x. While the year-end target of 7,600 remains unchanged, internal valuation assumptions have been quietly lowered. The current capital expenditure boom is still supporting earnings expectations, but high valuations combined with geopolitical risks are rapidly worsening the risk-reward ratio.

- **Goldman Sachs Traders Alert: Market Correction Not Over, CTA Strategies to Unleash Nearly $100 Billion in Selling Pressure in Next Month**

According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, CTA strategies still have about $69-70 billion in global equity selling pressure to release in the next week and about $98-100 billion in the next month, with U.S. stocks bearing the brunt due to the most significant negative trend signals; attention should be paid to this Friday's triple witching, with $1.3 trillion in delta notional options expiring; the "stagflation portfolio" is favored, with long positions in commodity and defensive stocks and short positions in low-quality consumer, semiconductor and regional bank stocks.

- **Hottest Chip Research Firm! SemiAnalysis Founder: Computing Power Bottleneck Shifts from CoWoS to EUV, Storage to Consume 30% of Capital Expenditure**

The founder of SemiAnalysis said that the bottleneck in AI computing power expansion is like "whack-a-mole" and is constantly changing, with the current bottleneck possibly returning to chip manufacturing. Inference models have triggered surging demand for HBM, whose wafer consumption is four times that of ordinary DRAM, which will lead to a halving of mobile phone shipments, and 30% of capital expenditure by tech giants in 2026 will be consumed by storage. Power is not the ultimate constraint, which can be solved through "behind-the-meter" solutions such as aero-derivative engines and fuel cells. The ultimate ceiling may come after 2028, tied to ASML's annual production of less than 100 EUV lithography machines.

- **Intensifying Battle Between Optics and Copper: Where Is the Expectation Gap?**

The optical communication sector has surged this year, while copper connector companies have been sold off sharply. The market believes that optics replacing copper is inevitable, and copper connections (such as DAC cables) will be quickly phased out. JPMorgan pointed out that the market has priced in the replacement of copper connections too quickly, and copper will remain the main use case for intra-rack interconnections until 2030. Copper connector companies may see better stock price resilience after the OFC conference.

# Domestic Macro

Shanghai’s second-hand housing online signing system crashed several times! Weekly transaction volume hit a five-year high, confirming a strong spring market. Agents: “No time to eat; one apartment fought over by two buyers.” The policy effect of the “Shanghai Seven Rules” continues to unfold, with the city’s property market seeing a robust spring recovery. Last week, second-hand home online signings reached 7,233 units, a weekly high since 2021. On March 14 alone, 1,472 units were traded, nearing the 1,500 mark. The online system repeatedly lagged and crashed due to extreme traffic. Agents reported being either conducting viewings or negotiations nonstop, with cases of two buyers competing for the same property. NBS data showed Shanghai’s second-hand home prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, the first increase in nearly 10 months.

Shanghai: Minimum down payment for commercial and mixed-use properties lowered to 30%. Starting March 16, 2026, the minimum mortgage down payment for commercial properties (including mixed commercial-residential properties) in Shanghai will be no less than 30%. Domestic banking institutions will set specific down-payment ratios based on this floor, combined with their operating conditions and client risk profiles, while ensuring convenience for ongoing transactions.

# Domestic Companies

European automakers begin to “embrace China” amid tech and cost pressures; Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz seek cooperation with Chinese carmakers. Facing electrification transition and overcapacity, European manufacturers are accelerating partnerships in China. Stellantis is in talks with Xiaomi, XPeng, and Leapmotor for potential equity sales and capacity sharing. Mercedes-Benz aims to deepen cooperation with Geely to strengthen model development in China. Stellantis’ European plant capacity utilization stands at only 46%, with a recent €22.2 billion write-down. Chinese EV makers have become strategic partners for European giants thanks to speed and cost advantages.

Ant Group accelerates expansion into securities; tender offer for Bright Smart Securities approved, expected to close March 30. In April 2025, Ant offered to acquire approximately 50.55% of Bright Smart Securities at HK$3.28 per share, for a total consideration of about HK$2.8 billion. After completion, Bright Smart will remain listed, but control will transfer to Ant.

Kimi releases technical paper praised by Musk; co-founders Yang Zhilin, Wu Yuxin, Zhou Xinyu listed as authors. Following publication, Musk called Kimi’s research impressive. Former OpenAI scientist Andrej Karpathy noted the work truly embodies the “Attention Is All You Need” concept. Jerry Tworek, former VP of research at OpenAI, stated “Deep Learning 2.0 has arrived.”

Wanhua Chemical reports 2025 revenue up 12% year-on-year, net profit down 3.9%, dragged mainly by chemical product prices.

# Overseas Macro

Indonesia plans windfall profit tax on commodities; deficit cap tested by oil prices. Indonesia is considering a windfall tax on commodities, to be implemented only if prices show a sustained upward trend rather than short-term volatility. The government reaffirmed its 3% budget deficit ceiling, with President Prabowo saying a temporary breach would only occur under extreme conditions like the pandemic. Middle East tensions and high oil prices are pressuring state finances, with the rupiah near historic lows. The government pledged to keep subsidized fuel prices unchanged during Ramadan, but warned conditions would be “very difficult” if oil stays above $120 long-term.

Alba begins phased shutdown of “world’s largest aluminum smelter,” further boosting aluminum prices. Aluminum Bahrain (Alba), the world’s largest single-site aluminum smelter, announced the closure of three production lines, affecting more than one-fifth of capacity. Producers in Qatar and India have also been hit, with the Middle East supply chain crisis spreading and restart timelines highly uncertain. The effective suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted raw material imports and product exports, forcing output cuts to preserve inventories.

LME trading halted for nearly two hours ahead of key monthly deadline. On Monday, electronic trading for all LME contracts was suspended for more than two hours due to a main matching engine failure. Prices remained stable after resumption: copper +0.9%, aluminum -1.2%, little changed from pre-halt levels. The disruption occurred ahead of the third Wednesday of the month, when LME contracts see peak liquidity.

# Overseas Companies

U.S. private equity giant Cliffwater deep in redemption crisis: $42 billion “black box” with 5,000 underlying funds? Cliffwater’s quarterly report shows over 3,600 holdings, including direct mid-market loans and investments in other private credit funds, with most borrowers little-known to retail investors. The fund also has about 1,700 undrawn loan commitments totaling $6.9 billion across nearly 1,000 borrowers, creating acute liquidity pressure.

OpenAI accelerates enterprise push; plans JV with TPG, Bain and other PE giants at $10 billion valuation. OpenAI is in talks with four major PE firms to form a joint venture, with a pre-money valuation of around $10 billion. PE investors plan to commit $4 billion in total for equity and board seats, with influence over AI deployment in portfolio companies. The structure will speed OpenAI’s enterprise penetration, while PEs gain AI solutions for their assets. OpenAI’s annualized enterprise revenue now tops $10 billion, rapidly closing the gap with Anthropic.

Intel Xeon 6 to be main CPU in NVIDIA DGX Rubin; shares rise 3.3%. Intel gained 3.3% on Monday after announcing its Xeon 6 processors will power the NVIDIA DGX Rubin NVL8 system. Analysts said the move marks cooperation from concept to reality, with emerging synergy in AI servers.

Apple launches AirPods Max 2 at unchanged $549, noise cancellation improved 1.5x. The second-generation AirPods Max feature 1.5x stronger active noise cancellation, upgraded H2 chip, real-time translation, conversation awareness, and adaptive audio. Microphone recording quality and gaming latency are also optimized. Pre-orders start March 25 at $549.

# Industries & Themes

1. Hydrogen Energy

On March 16, MIIT, Ministry of Finance, and NDRC issued a notice on hydrogen energy comprehensive application pilots. By 2030, hydrogen will see large-scale deployment across sectors; terminal hydrogen prices to fall below ¥25/kg, aiming for around ¥15/kg in advanced regions. China’s fuel cell vehicle fleet to double from 2025 levels, targeting 100,000 units.

**Comment**: Local matching funds are expected at a 1:1 ratio, potentially unlocking ¥16 billion in targeted support. Growth will focus on medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. Subsidies expand beyond fuel cell vehicles to green ammonia, hydrogen-based chemical feedstocks, hydrogen metallurgy, and hydrogen-blended combustion. Penetration in transportation, industry, and energy will accelerate as five city-cluster plans roll out.

2. Optical Fiber

China Telecom’s Tianjin branch 2026 outdoor optical cable tender failed as fewer than three bidders submitted proposals by the deadline.

**Comment**: The G652D price cap was set near ¥70 per fiber-km, sharply higher than previous group limits, yet still lacked sufficient bidders, confirming full production capacity. Supply is tight; future operator tenders may lift caps to ¥80–100 per fiber-km. Seasonal demand is picking up as construction resumes. New optical fiber preform capacity in 2026 is seen at 2,000–3,000 tons, supporting less than 100 million fiber-km, mostly arriving late in the year, leaving a large supply gap.

3. Computing Power

On March 16, Meta announced it will spend up to $27 billion over five years on cutting-edge AI infrastructure from Dutch cloud provider Nebius Group. Nebius shares surged 15% in pre-market trading. NVIDIA’s $2 billion investment in Nebius last week drove a 16% jump.

**Comment**: The deal is one of Meta’s largest single contracts, underscoring its AI expansion. Meta and peers plan about $650 billion in 2026 data center and infrastructure spending. Nebius competes with CoreWeave and others, backed by NVIDIA and top clients. NVIDIA’s investment model — funding cloud firms to buy its chips and serve big tech — supports valuations in a high-demand environment. The global cloud infrastructure boom signals strong growth for IaaS and related supply chains.

4. 6G

NVIDIA shifts focus to 6G infrastructure after establishing AI leadership, partnering with global telecom operators to build next-generation wireless networks on AI-powered open, secure, trusted platforms. As part of its 6G vision, NVIDIA joins global public-private initiatives, contributing open-source software, accessible platforms, and joint R&D.

**Comment**: 6G integrates digital and real economies, spanning chips, communications, satellites, and materials, highly aligned with AI. 6G base stations will feature on-board AI intelligence, enabling personalized smart services and industry digital transformation. It will become the backbone of physical AI, supporting autonomous machines, vehicles, sensors, and robots. AI agent innovation will drive network intelligence, creating new scenarios and markets.

# Today’s News Forward Look

- U.S. February pending home sales

- Eurozone March ZEW economic sentiment index

- Australia interest rate decision

- U.S. judge orders Maduro to appear in court again March 17

- AMD’s Lisa Su to visit South Korea for meetings with Samsung executives

- Earnings: Tencent Music, Lululemon

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# Risk Warning & Disclaimer

Markets are risky and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice and does not account for any user’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Readers should assess whether any views, opinions, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this material are the sole responsibility of the user.