Morning News

# Source: Wallstreetcn

## Market Overview

The outlook for U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations dominated Wednesday's markets. As Iran adopted a tougher stance, oil prices rebounded from session lows, rising approximately 1% in early Thursday Asian trading. U.S. stocks and Treasuries did not follow oil's reversal.

All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.77%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index gained more than 1.2%. Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader market, closing up 1.86%. Meituan surged 13.8%, JD.com rose 8.3%, and Pinduoduo climbed over 4% following its earnings report. Pop Mart's ADR slumped more than 22%. Google's release of KV cache compression technology triggered a broad sell-off in storage stocks, with Western Digital and Micron leading the decline, both falling over 3.4%. Circle rebounded 2.67%.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower. The 10-year yield fell 2.3 basis points, while the 2-year yield remained flat.

The U.S. dollar recovered its previous day's losses, rising 0.45% on the day. Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 2% compared to their levels at the close of U.S. stock trading on Wednesday.

Spot gold extended its late-night rebound, briefly testing the $4,600 level before paring gains. Spot silver also rose and then fell back, ending flat compared to Wednesday's late levels.

Oman Dubai crude plummeted 13% to $100 per barrel as oil shipments to Asia resumed normal operations.

During Asian trading hours, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1% to reclaim the 3,900-point mark. Power stocks saw a surge in limit-up trading, and computing hardware stocks exploded. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped nearly 2%, with Meituan soaring over 10% and Pop Mart plunging 22%.

## Key News

### China

- Li Qiang held a phone conversation with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.

- Wang Yi: The rights and wrongs of the Middle East conflict are crystal clear. The international community must uphold an objective and just stance. The top priority is to actively promote peace talks.

- Pinduoduo: Q4 revenue rose 12% YoY, while net profit fell 11% YoY. Management announced a full commitment to supply chain investment. During the earnings call: "Heavy investment in supply chains to rebuild a new Pinduoduo in three years"; profit margin fluctuations will be the new normal.

- Pop Mart: 2025 net profit surged 293% YoY, but 2026 growth is projected at only 20%, sparking concerns over over-reliance on Labubu, leading to a sharp stock price drop. At the earnings conference: 2026 growth will be no less than 20%; Labubu will collaborate with the World Cup.

- Kuaishou: 2025 revenue and net profit both hit record highs. Kling AI's monthly revenue exceeded $20 million.

- *Economic Daily* published an article titled "The Food Delivery War Should End," triggering a sharp rally in Meituan and Alibaba shares.

### Overseas

- Iran rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, stating it would not allow Trump to decide the timing of a truce. The White House said U.S.-Iran negotiations are ongoing and productive, while Iran's foreign minister claimed information exchanges are not negotiations. Iran stated: "The Strait is open to all except belligerents!" Amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is "changing course to survive," with exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu approaching the 5 million-barrel target.

- Trump to form a technology council: 13 tech titans including Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, and Larry Ellison may be nominated.

- ECB President Christine Lagarde: The ECB will hike rates at any meeting if necessary; it will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" over the Iran issue.

- Inflationary pressures are quietly building. U.S. import prices posted their largest increase since 2022.

- Google's release of KV cache compression technology dampened storage demand expectations, triggering a collective sell-off in U.S. storage stocks.

- Western Digital acquired 139 million shares of Nanya Technology with a $1 billion investment, ramping up its DRAM footprint.

- Rapid AI iteration is disrupting the SaaS business model, with software contract durations quietly shortening.

- A CPU shortage is emerging. Intel and AMD raised prices again in March, with total increases of 10%-15% this year, and lead times extended up to six months.

- SpaceX plans to file for an IPO as early as this week, targeting a June listing, potentially raising over $75 billion.

- A landmark ruling: Meta and Google found liable in social media addiction lawsuits.

## Market Closing Levels

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: +0.54% to 6,591.90

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.66% to 46,429.49

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.77% to 21,929.825

- Euro Stoxx 600: +1.42% to 587.49

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: 3,931.84 (+1.30%)

- Shenzhen Component Index: 13,801.00 (+1.95%)

- ChiNext Index: 3,316.97 (+2.01%)

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: -3.76 bps to 4.3223%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: -0.82 bps to 3.8852%

### Commodities

- Early Thursday Asian trading: WTI crude +1% to $91.32/bbl

- New York late session: COMEX gold futures +2.27% to $4,534.90/oz; COMEX silver futures flat at $71.280/oz

# Detailed News

## Global Highlights

### China

- **Li Qiang holds phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof**. Li Qiang stated that China stands ready to work with the Netherlands to consolidate political mutual trust, adhere to mutual respect and equal dialogue, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, continuously inject new impetus into the common development of the two countries, and contribute positive energy to world peace and prosperity. Prime Minister Schoof said the new Dutch government attaches great importance to relations with China, and is willing to maintain close high-level exchanges, promote mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, trade, innovation, climate change response and other fields, jointly address global challenges, and safeguard common interests.

- **Wang Yi: The rights and wrongs of the Middle East conflict are crystal clear; the international community must uphold an objective and just stance, and the top priority is to actively promote peace talks**. Wang Yi emphasized that the immediate task is to actively promote peace talks, seize the opportunity for peace, and bring an end to the hostilities. The situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly, with both the U.S. and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate, offering a glimmer of hope for peace. Continued fighting will only lead to more casualties, senseless losses, and further spillover of the conflict. The international community should actively push the conflicting parties to initiate dialogue—once talks begin, peace becomes possible.

- **Pinduoduo reports 12% YoY Q4 revenue growth, 11% net profit decline; management pledges full-scale investment in supply chain; earnings call: "Heavy investment in supply chain to rebuild a new Pinduoduo in three years," profit margin volatility will be the new normal**.

 - Pinduoduo's 2025 revenue reached **RMB 431.8 billion**, up **10% YoY**; net profit attributable to shareholders was **RMB 99.4 billion**, down **12% YoY**. Q4 revenue rose **12% YoY**, while net profit fell **11% YoY** to approximately **RMB 24.5 billion**.

 - Management explicitly stated it will "go all in" on supply chain investment, directly warning this will pressure financial performance.

 - The company will not pursue business diversification over the next three years, instead focusing **"All in"** on the supply chain to "rebuild a new Pinduoduo". Amid fierce competition and complex global regulation, executives stressed compliance is a bottom line, guiding the market that sacrificing short-term financial performance for long-term endogenous value of the ecosystem means quarterly profit margin fluctuations will become "the new normal".

- **Pop Mart reports 293% YoY surge in 2025 net profit, but 2026 growth forecast only 20%; over-reliance on Labubu sparks concerns, shares plunge; earnings call: 2026 growth will be no less than 20%, Labubu to partner with World Cup**.

 - Financial results show Pop Mart's 2025 revenue hit **RMB 37.12 billion** (+**185%**), net profit **RMB 13.01 billion** (+**293%**), with overseas markets becoming a key growth driver. The runaway success of **LABUBU** propelled plush toys to become the largest product category, with the single IP contributing over **38%** of revenue. However, market worries over over-reliance on a single core IP and lack of a diversified second growth curve triggered a share price plunge of over **15%**.

 - Wang Ning, Chairman and CEO of Pop Mart, stated at the 2025 annual results conference that the company will strive for growth of no less than **20%** in 2026. (Pop Mart's 2025 revenue grew **185%**, slightly below market expectations; net profit rose **309%**.)

- **Kuaishou reports record-high 2025 revenue and net profit; Kling AI monthly revenue exceeds $20 million**.

 - Kuaishou achieved all-time highs in both revenue and profit for 2025: total revenue reached **RMB 142.8 billion**, up **12.5% YoY**; adjusted net profit was **RMB 20.6 billion**, up **16.5% YoY**.

 - Kling AI reached an **annualized revenue run rate (ARR)** of **$240 million**, with overseas losses narrowing by **92%**.

 - The company declared a final dividend and continued share repurchases, with total annual dividends per share reaching **HK$1.15**, demonstrating strong confidence in profitability.

- **Economic Daily publishes article "The Food Delivery War Should End"; Meituan and Alibaba shares surge; the war once burned through RMB 80 billion in six months**. Price wars are unsustainable; cutthroat competition has no winners. The food delivery war should come to an end.

### Overseas

- **Iran rejects U.S. ceasefire proposal, says it will not allow Trump to decide truce timing; White House claims U.S.-Iran talks are productive, Iranian foreign minister says information exchanges are not negotiations**.

 - Iran put forward five conditions to end the war, including recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, calling the U.S.' 15-point proposal a "list of fantasies". It threatened "violent attacks" on infrastructure in "certain regional countries" if they support hostile forces against Iran.

 - Iran's foreign minister stated that in recent days, the U.S. has transmitted ceasefire proposals via "friendly countries," which Iran's leadership is studying—this is information exchange, not dialogue or negotiation.

 - The White House reaffirmed a four-to-six-week timeline for action against Iran, saying reports of U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan should not be seen as confirmed arrangements.

 - Iran's military threatened to open a new front in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz situation; it shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet. Iran's president said the country is moving from simple trade relations to deep strategic binding.

- **Rapid AI iteration disrupts SaaS business model; software contracts are quietly shortening**. Enterprise clients are compressing contract terms from multi-year to annual or even monthly renewals to retain flexibility to switch vendors. The "per-user" pricing model faces structural challenges, with shorter sales cycles, higher customer churn, and capital accelerating toward AI-native companies—the software industry is undergoing profound restructuring.

- **CPU shortage emerges; Intel and AMD raise prices again in March, with 10%-15% hikes this year; lead times extended up to six months**. Both Intel and AMD are under strain, with CPU prices surging up to **15%** and lead times jumping from two weeks to six months. HP and Dell bear the brunt, with gaming PC makers lamenting "even with money, we can't get stock". The AI computing boom is gobbling up global chip capacity, triggering a supply storm across PC and server markets; Arm architecture may seize the opportunity to reshape the industry landscape.

- **SpaceX plans to file for IPO as early as this week, targeting June listing, potentially raising over $75 billion**. Reports indicate SpaceX intends to submit its IPO prospectus to regulators this week at the earliest, aiming for a June listing and expected to raise more than **$75 billion**—above the previous market estimate of **$50 billion**. Its latest pre-IPO valuation stands at **$1.25 trillion**. The IPO is expected to allocate over **20%** of shares to retail investors, potentially without the traditional six-month lock-up period.

- **Landmark ruling! Meta and Google found liable in social media addiction lawsuits**. A U.S. jury ruled Meta and Google liable, ordering them to pay damages to a 20-year-old woman who claimed addiction to their platforms caused her mental health crisis. The outcome may expose the two companies to massive risks in thousands of similar lawsuits, potentially involving billions of dollars. The lawsuits allege platforms like Instagram and YouTube were deliberately designed to addict young users while ignoring their physical and mental health.

## Selected Research Reports

- **"New Bond King" Gundlach: U.S. stocks not yet at buy point; 2025 rate-cut hopes dashed; now is a good time to bottom-fish gold**. Gundlach warned that the VIX Index not breaking 40 indicates U.S. stocks have not bottomed, and investors should not blindly buy the dip. He argued stubborn inflation has dashed Fed rate-cut hopes for the year, with Powell clearly stating no cuts without progress on inflation. However, he is bullish on gold and commodities, seeing the current pullback as an excellent buying opportunity. He also warned of high risks in private credit, with CCC-rated loan spreads soaring to **1,900 basis points**.

- **Beware the "ceasefire rebound" trap! Strategists: Iran unlikely to accept deal; recommend "sell on strength"**. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities believes Iran has low odds of accepting a ceasefire: 1) trust was damaged by raids during negotiations; 2) a truce would buy time for U.S. military deployment; 3) the IRGC core lacks incentive to compromise; 4) Iran may bet prolonged conflict forces U.S. concessions. Even if Iran accepts, substantial damage to the global economy will not dissipate quickly—hence "sell on strength" for this rebound.

- **Behind AI doomsday, institutions bet again: Fed will "look through" oil price shocks, all in on rate cuts within a year**. James van Geelen, founder of Citrini, said if oil prices stay high, maintaining current rates is already sufficiently restrictive; rising oil will gradually feed into the real economy, slowing growth and creating room for the Fed to cut rates. "Rate hikes don't create more oil supply; with unemployment rising, the Fed is even less likely to tighten".

- **Nomura's Richard Koo: "Iran war" days after Trump lost "Supreme Court tariff battle"—no coincidence**. Koo argued the Trump administration launched the Iran war days after its "reciprocal tariffs" were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, facing **$300 billion** in refund pressure—timing too precise to be coincidental, aiming to divert domestic political and fiscal crises via sudden military action. However, Iran's drone tactics have trapped U.S. forces in escort dilemmas, sending global energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs soaring. Tariff uncertainties plus geopolitical risks are pushing the global economy into stagflation—slower growth and higher inflation.

- **Goldman Sachs: Will private credit trigger a new financial crisis?**. Goldman Sachs believes that despite turmoil from redemption restrictions, private credit accounts for only **4%** of private non-financial credit; even in an extreme scenario with **10%** defaults, the drag on GDP would be just **0.2%-0.5%**, unlikely to spark a systemic crisis like 2008. Core risks concentrate in **25%** exposure to the software sector and uncertainty over AI premiums.

- **"Crayfish" kicks Anthropic**. Open-source OpenClaw blazes a trail, validating the direction and forcing Anthropic to accelerate evolution, upgrading Claude from a chat tool to a true AI agent.

# Domestic Companies

### Kimi

**Yang Zhilin, Founder of Kimi: AI-Dominated Era of AI R&D is Coming! Company Valuation Hits $18 Billion, Quadrupling in 3 Months**

At the 2026 Zhongguancun Forum, Yang Zhilin, founder of Moonshot AI, stated that the methodology of AI research and development will undergo a profound transformation this year, next year, and in the years ahead, with an increasing share of research work being led by AI. He unveiled Kimi's latest technological roadmap, including the self-developed **Kimi Linear architecture** and **Agent cluster technology**. According to people familiar with the matter, Kimi's valuation has reached **$18 billion**, quadrupling in just three months, and a new round of **$1 billion** financing is currently underway.

### Kingsoft Cloud

**AI Demand Surge Propels Kingsoft Cloud to Record Q4 Revenue; Non-GAAP EBITDA Doubles YoY; Lei Jun Resigns as Non-Executive Director**

Kingsoft Cloud achieved a record-high quarterly revenue of **RMB 2.761 billion** in Q4, representing a **23.7% YoY increase** and accelerating growth from previous quarters. Public cloud revenue reached **RMB 1.902 billion**, surging **34.9% YoY** and serving as the core growth driver. Revenue from the **AI Computing Cloud billing business** amounted to **RMB 926 million**, soaring **95% YoY**.

### Hengrui Medicine

**Hengrui Medicine Reports 2025 Revenue of RMB 31.629 Billion, Up 13% YoY; Innovative Drug Revenue Reaches RMB 16.342 Billion**

### BeiGene

**BeiGene Achieves First Annual Profit in 2025 with Net Income of $287 Million; Revenue Grows 40% to $5.343 Billion**

### COSCO SHIPPING Lines

**COSCO SHIPPING Lines Resumes New Booking Services for Six Middle Eastern Countries Effective Immediately**

On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines announced the resumption of standard container booking services from the Far East to six countries in the Middle East. This follows Iran's foreign minister's statement that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened to all vessels except those of belligerent nations. Iran has sent a letter to the International Maritime Organization explicitly banning vessels affiliated with the U.S. and Israel from passage. Iran's embassy in India has denied rumors of a $2 million "transit fee" being charged to merchant ships.

# Global Macroeconomics

### Retail Investors

**Even the Strongest Bulls Can't Hold On? Retail Investors "Sell Off" U.S. Stocks for the First Time Since Late 2023**

The most reliable "market support force" for U.S. stocks is wavering. According to Vanda Research, retail investors recorded their first daily net selling since November 2023 on Monday, offloading approximately **$20.6 million** worth of individual stocks. This shift occurred precisely amid a rebound in the S&P 500, as Trump softened his threats to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, leading to a temporary improvement in market sentiment.

### Russia

**Putin Signs Decree Restricting Gold Exports Starting May**

Starting May 1, Russia will ban the export of gold bars weighing more than 100 grams. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister stated this is part of a broader crackdown on the shadow economy. The Deputy Finance Minister noted that gold is increasingly being used as an alternative to foreign exchange in illegal transactions, fueling capital flight and money laundering. Analysts warn a wave of gold selling could occur before the policy takes effect. Russia is the world's second-largest gold producer.

# Global Companies

### Meta

**Meta Unveils Most Aggressive Executive Incentive Scheme in History: Options Vested Only if Market Cap Hits $9 Trillion in 5 Years**

Meta has launched an ultra-aggressive incentive plan: executives must drive the company's market capitalization from **$1.5 trillion** to **$9 trillion** within five years, or their stock options will be forfeited. This plan reflects the urgent pressure on tech giants to retain core talent and strengthen executive incentives amid intense AI competition. Meanwhile, the ballooning cost of equity-based compensation has significantly impacted Meta's cash flow.

### Volkswagen Group

**Auto Giant Ventures into Defense: Volkswagen Group in Talks to Convert "Struggling Plant" to Produce "Missile Defense Components"**

Volkswagen is in negotiations to transform its Osnabrück plant, which is on the verge of closure, into a production base for components of Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system. This move will preserve 2,300 jobs and mark Volkswagen's return to weapons manufacturing. Driven by Europe's rearmament wave, the combination of Germany's manufacturing overcapacity and Israel's military technology could spawn a highly promising strategic business.

# Industries & Concepts

### 1. Sports

As April begins, football and basketball leagues across Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian, and other regions are kicking off one after another. The Jiangsu Super League starts on April 11, the Fujian Super League on April 25, and the Guangdong Super League on April 25. Additionally, on March 23, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on unleashing the potential of sports consumption and further promoting the high-quality development of the sports industry, explicitly calling for "upgrading sports goods" and "creating domestic trendy brands." By 2030, a batch of globally influential sports enterprises and events will be cultivated, the development level of the sports industry will be significantly提升, and its total scale will exceed **RMB 7 trillion**.

**Commentary**: A CITIC Construction Securities report states that the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the strategies of building a sports powerhouse and a tourism powerhouse. With the advancement of sports-related policies and the diversification of residents' sports and entertainment options, the groundwork for the development of the event economy is gradually being laid, and it is expected to become a driver of domestic consumption.

### 2. SpaceX

**Commentary**: This IPO is poised to become the largest in U.S. history, far exceeding previous offerings in scale. The company's latest valuation stands at **$1.25 trillion**, with the actual fundraising size and valuation to be finalized in the weeks leading up to the IPO. In early February, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission approved SpaceX's plan for an Earth-orbit data center network capable of launching up to 1 million satellites. SpaceX has acquired Musk's xAI company and will integrate technologies such as the Grok model, rocket launches, and satellite internet to implement its space data center strategy. Proceeds from the IPO will be used for Starship flight tests, data center networking, and lunar base construction. SpaceX's space data center mission will validate key technologies for reusable rockets and AI satellite manufacturing, providing an important benchmark for breaking industry bottlenecks and accelerating commercialization.

### 3. Fiber Optic Cables

In March, driven by the confluence of demand from drones and AI Infrastructure Data Center (AIDC) construction, the price of G.657.A2 fiber has broken through **RMB 210 per fiber-kilometer**, shattering the historical price ceiling. Furthermore, during Huawei China Partner Conference 2026, Huawei launched ten new F5 (FFIV) G-A all-optical network products. Based on its "Optics-AI Convergence" industry strategy, Huawei has comprehensively upgraded its F5 (FFIV) G-A all-optical network solutions for carrier, enterprise, and distribution markets, focusing on key industries and scenarios. These include ten innovative solutions and products such as the all-optical smart substation for power grids, AI F5 (FFIV) G-A all-optical campus, and distribution store treasure套装.

**Commentary**: China Galaxy Securities notes that the fiber optic cable market is experiencing sustained price increases due to the rapid development of AI and computing power networks, coupled with high expansion difficulties. On the demand side, AI computing centers are driving a significant surge in demand for Data Center Interconnect (DCI) and all-optical networks.

### 4. Gas Turbines

According to Securities Times, General Electric (GEV) recently disclosed at the Bank of America Global Industrial Conference that, due to robust AIDC demand, its order backlog extends beyond 2030, with customers already locking in 2031 capacity. The company has decided to raise the price of gas turbines from **$2,500 to $3,000 per kW** (including EPC costs), representing an approximately **20%** increase.

**Commentary**: Multiple reports indicate that global gas turbine orders are surging, driven by power demand from AI/data centers, with lead times extended to over five years. GEV has signed numerous pre-booking agreements, with some customers paying deposits (20–25%) to secure future capacity. The company also clarified that natural gas price fluctuations have a limited impact on gas turbine demand; regardless of gas prices, the rigid demand for electricity remains, and power consumption will not weaken. There are no alternative solutions to North America's power shortage, and gas turbines remain the preferred choice for local power construction due to their fast approval process, short construction cycle, operational flexibility, and stable power supply. Analysts believe the high prosperity of gas turbines is accelerating, and driven by the triple factors of AIDC, power shortages, and replacement cycles, the outlook for gas turbines is highly certain.

### 5. Brain-Computer Interface (BCI)

According to IT Home, on local time Tuesday, Musk's Neuralink unveiled the latest progress in its BCI technology, demonstrating how its N1 implant device converts brain signals into spoken words. In an official video, a user with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) was able to convert brain-generated signals into text using only their thoughts, without moving their lips, and further synthesize speech via computer software, enabling smooth silent communication.

**Commentary**: Neuralink's first product, **Telepathy**, is scheduled for mass production this year, with over 10,000 people already applying to experience it. Neuralink will begin large-scale production of BCI devices and implement a fully automated surgical process this year, which is expected to accelerate the development of the entire industry chain. According to ASKCI data, the global BCI market size reached **$2.6 billion** in 2024, growing **8.3% YoY**; the institution further forecasts that the global market size will climb to **$3.3 billion** by 2026. The 15th Five-Year Plan has listed BCI as one of the six future industries, marking its transition from a national science and technology strategic project to a strategic future industry, highlighting its industrialization and economic value. In March this year, the implantable BCI hand motor function compensation system (NEO) independently developed by Borui Kang Medical Technology officially received China's Class III medical device registration certificate, becoming the world's first commercially approved implantable BCI product.

# Today's News Preview

- The 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is held; Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao will attend.

- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for last week.

- G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting focuses on the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations.

- Speeches by Federal Reserve Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook.

- Meituan's financial results.

---

# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is volatile, and investments involve risks. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this article are at the user's own risk.