An important turnaround has emerged in the US-Iran confrontation stalemate. The Trump administration announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, and subsequently, Iranian state media revealed that Iran has received signals from the US indicating its readiness to lift relevant blockades. These two positive developments have boosted global market risk sentiment, putting further pressure on international oil prices, strengthening the safe-haven asset gold, pushing the US dollar slightly lower, and allowing global stock markets to gradually narrow their previous losses, showing a recovery trend.
According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian official stated in an interview with local media that Iran has received "some signals" indicating that the US is preparing to lift its relevant blockades against Iran, but did not disclose specific details of these signals. After the news was announced, the global market responded quickly: Brent crude, the global crude oil benchmark, expanded its decline to 1.8%, falling below $97 per barrel; spot gold rose more than 1% intraday to around $4,760 per ounce; the US Dollar Index fell about0.15% intraday.
In terms of stock markets, major global stock index futures generally rebounded: S&P 500 Index futures expanded their gains to 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose 0.7%; European stock index futures successfully erased their previous losses and turned up 0.1%, with market panic eased to a certain extent.
However, market sentiment has not fully turned optimistic and remains in a state of interweaving hope and anxiety. Currently, the shipping blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been lifted. Industry analysts have warned that the current rapid rebound in asset prices may have prematurely digested expectations of a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, while the substantive risks behind the situation have not yet been fully eliminated and may fluctuate in the future.
Specific market performance is as follows:
The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.4% at 59,585.86 points; Japan's TOPIX Index closed down 0.7% at 3,744.99 points.
S&P 500 Index futures expanded their gains to 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose 0.7%; European stock index futures erased their previous losses and turned up 0.1%.
The US Dollar Index declined, falling0.15% intraday.
US Treasury bonds extended their decline, with the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield basically flat at 4.29%; bond prices of the same maturity in Japan and Australia also fell simultaneously.
International crude oil prices fell sharply in the short term, with both Brent crude and WTI crude falling more than 1% intraday.
Spot gold surged in the short term, rising more than 1% intraday.
Silver prices rose 1.8% to $78.15 per ounce.
Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $77,473.71.
US-Iran Stalemate Turns Around: "Signals" of Blockade Lifting Reshape Global Risk Preference
Trump's announcement of an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement stands in stark contrast to his previous tough stance. As recently as Monday this week, Trump clearly stated in a telephone interview that extending the ceasefire was "extremely unlikely" if the US and Iran failed to reach a relevant agreement. However, just a few days later, he suddenly announced the indefinite extension of the ceasefire and attributed the previous breakdown of negotiations to the "severely divided" leadership structure in Tehran. It is reported that the extension of the ceasefire was also made at the request of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, who also stated that he will continue to prepare for the next round of contact between the two parties.
According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, said: "We have received some signals indicating that they are prepared to lift the blockade. Once they lift the blockade, I believe the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad." He also emphasized: "If they are willing to sit down and negotiate to seek a political solution, we are ready. If they insist on going to war, Iran is also ready." However, Iravani did not provide further explanations on the specific nature, delivery method or time node of the above-mentioned "signals". It is worth noting that while announcing the extension of the ceasefire, the US did not clearly state that it would revoke the blockade on Iran's ports and coastlines, which has also become one of the core sticking points in the negotiations between the two parties.
After the news broke, the commodity and foreign exchange markets responded quickly — international crude oil prices fell sharply in the short term, with both Brent crude and WTI crude falling more than1% intraday; spot gold surged in the short term, rising more than 1% intraday; the US Dollar Index fell slightly by 0.15% intraday, and global risk preference was significantly reshaped.
Market Rebound May Be Excessive: Shadow of Hormuz Blockade Lingers
Although global stock markets have gradually recovered their losses caused by the US-Iran conflict, and international oil prices have partially digested the geopolitical risk premium, industry insiders are cautious about the current market trend. Bloomberg strategist Garfield Reynolds warned that the market may be overly optimistic currently, with the risk of an excessive rebound. He pointed out that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still ongoing, causing a continuous shortage of global fuels, fertilizers and other key materials. The current pricing in the futures market reflects the general market expectation that these supply gaps will disappear quickly, but this expectation may not be realized, which also means that the current V-shaped rebound in the stock market may have come "too fast and too hasty".
Dilin Wu, strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in his research report that the extension of the ceasefire agreement generally supports global risk assets, but the situation in Asia may be different — "Many economies in Asia are highly dependent on energy imports, so the damage caused by the long-term US-Iran confrontation is actually greater, especially compared with the United States, which has a higher degree of energy self-sufficiency."
Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis CIB said: "The market hopes to put pressure on Trump, and Trump will have to make concessions." This statement suggests that the duration of the US-Iran conflict will be constrained by global market pressure, and the possibility of the two parties returning to the negotiating table has increased.
Vivian Lin Thurston, fund manager at William Blair, stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV: "The initial impact of the war may have passed, and we are entering an uncertain period of repeated tug-of-war. If you believe the fundamentals are still supportive, the market will weather the recent uncertainties and noises related to the war."
Fed Nominee: Will Uphold Central Bank Independence, Plans to Build New Inflation Framework
In terms of monetary policy, Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, recently stated that the Federal Reserve needs to establish a new framework to address persistent inflation, but did not provide specific details of the framework. He also emphasized that President Trump has not asked him to make any commitments on future interest rate decisions and will not become a "puppet" of the president.
"The president nominated me, and if I am confirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman, I will act as an independent actor," Warsh said. During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, he also pointed out that the independence of the Federal Reserve is not taken for granted, but needs to be earned through good policy performance. Low inflation is the "shield" for the Federal Reserve to maintain its independence. Currently, high prices still put pressure on American households, so it is urgent to build a new inflation framework through institutional reforms.
In other markets, US Treasury bonds extended their previous decline, with the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield basically flat at 4.29%; bond prices of the same maturity in Japan and Australia also fell simultaneously; silver prices rose 1.8% to $78.15 per ounce, continuing the recent upward trend.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Investment based on this article is at the user's own risk.
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