The United States and Iran are caught in a high-risk"chicken game". As peace talks stall and mutual maritime blockades escalate, international oil prices have returned to an upward trend, with WTI crude front-month futures climbing above the level before the talks collapsed. US President Trump publicly stated that there is "no timeline" for ending the conflict, while Iranian hardliners have clearly refused to return to the negotiating table. This battle for leverage through maximum pressure is dragging the global economy into a prolonged war of attrition with incalculable costs.
The struggle between the US and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually escalating into a high-risk "chicken game", with both sides' uncompromising attitudes deadlocking the situation.
As peace talks stall and mutual maritime blockades continue to escalate, this geopolitical conflict is no longer confined to military and diplomatic confrontations, but is rapidly evolving into a prolonged war that tests the stability of the global energy supply chain and the resilience of the world economy.
According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump clearly stated on the 22nd that there is currently "no timeline" for ending the conflict with Iran, and there is no rush to advance the process.
This clear statement has further strengthened global market expectations for a prolonged US-Iran conflict and heightened concerns about geopolitical risks.
According to other media reports, because Iran decided at the last minute to refuse to send a delegation, US Vice President JD Vance's scheduled trip to Islamabad to restart US-Iran talks has been indefinitely postponed, a change that has completely shattered market expectations for the two sides to reach a peace agreement in the short term.
The political deadlock between the US and Iran has quickly spread to the energy market, significantly impacting global energy supply expectations.
Affected by the situation, Brent crude prices have risen for three consecutive trading days, successfully breaking through the $101 per barrel mark; WTI crude front-month futures have not only recovered previous losses but also climbed above the level before the talks collapsed, with continued volatility in the energy market.
Signals from the spot market are even more worrying: spot Brent crude prices have risen above $107, and US gasoline prices have hit a nearly four-year high, a trend that clearly indicates the market has begun to price in the risk of short-term energy supply shortages in advance.
Although the military ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has been extended, the confrontation between the two sides in the economic and shipping fields has not cooled down, but has continued to escalate.
As a crucial waterway carrying about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, the continued obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz not only further exacerbates concerns about global energy supply but also significantly raises the risks of global supply chain disruptions and a resurgence of inflation, posing a serious threat to global economic recovery.
Stalled Talks and Indefinite Pressure
After the collapse of US-Iran peace talks, the White House held urgent consultations to discuss follow-up response strategies.
According to media reports, Trump, his national security team, Vice President JD Vance and others jointly evaluated several response options, including resuming bombing of Iran. In the end, the Trump administration decided to extend the ceasefire and continue to maintain economic pressure on Iran until Tehran puts forward a specific negotiation plan.
According to Xinhua News Agency, in an interview with Fox News Channel, Trump clearly denied rumors of a "3-to-5-day window" for extending the ceasefire, emphasizing that there is "no time pressure" on the ceasefire, and refuted external claims that he is eager to end the conflict due to the midterm elections.
For its part, Iran has clearly stated that the US maritime blockade constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pointed out that the US move to block Iranian ports and attack Iranian-related commercial ships is a clear violation of the previously reached ceasefire agreement and an act that undermines the peace process.
Due to the US's continued tightening of the blockade on Iranian ports, Iranian hardliners have clearly refused to return to the negotiating table to consult with the US under the unfavorable background of sustained pressure.
Mutual Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz
Outside the negotiating table, both the US and Iran are using maritime blockades to compete for negotiating leverage, further escalating regional tensions.
The US has maintained a naval blockade around Iranian ports, whose core purpose is to cut off Iran's crude oil export revenue, thereby weakening Iran's economic strength and negotiating confidence.
The US continues to conduct maritime interceptions of various ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. Data released by the US Central Command shows that since the start of the blockade, US forces have instructed 28 ships to turn around or return to port, preventing them from entering Iranian-related waters.
At the same time, US troops also boarded a sanctioned crude oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, continuing to step up efforts to crack down on the "shadow fleet" that helps Iran evade sanctions, further compressing Iran's crude oil export space.
In response to the US blockade, Iran has continued to block the Strait of Hormuz, restricting the passage of almost all other countries' international ships, in order to counter the US's maximum pressure.
According to comprehensive media reports, Iranian gunboats opened fire on several commercial cargo ships and container ships, including the MSC Francesca, Epaminondas and Euphoria, in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also seized two of the ships and brought them back to the coast for inspection, bringing the situation to the verge of losing control.
In response to Iran's military action of opening fire on and seizing passing ships, Trump responded: "Those are not US ships" and stated that he will closely monitor the subsequent development of the situation, without mentioning further response measures for the time being.
However, it is worth noting that the US maritime blockade is not impenetrable and still has certain loopholes.
According to statistics from data intelligence company Vortexa, since the beginning of this week, at least 34 Iranian-related oil tankers and natural gas carriers have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade to complete their transportation tasks.
Leverage Game and Global Economic Costs
The current deadlock between the US and Iran is essentially a strategic game for negotiating advantages under the background of maximum pressure, with both sides trying to force the other to make concessions first through pressure.
The US hopes to weaken Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a negotiating chip through continuous maritime blockades, forcing Iran to accept the negotiating conditions proposed by the US; while Iranian hardliners attempt to prove through continuous resistance that they can withstand the pain brought by economic blockades and buy time in this war of attrition to wait for a favorable opportunity.
"This is purely an act of seeking leverage," said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "In the short term, this shows US determination. This is important because this war is not only a contest of will but also a contest of energy and security."
But he also pointed out that the US blockade itself is a high-risk gamble:
"The bet is that Iran will concede first before other countries in the world, but this is an extremely risky bet. The Iranian regime is fighting for survival and has proven its ability to withstand the strangulation of oil exports."
Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the US National Security Council and now at the Washington Institute, believes that the US blockade has rebalanced the pressure between the US and Iran to a certain extent.
"Previously, Iran was still exporting oil while other countries could not pass smoothly, which meant that time and pressure were unfavorable to Washington."
But he also warned that this blockade strategy may be a double-edged sword for the US, with both advantages and disadvantages.
As the passage of the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked and global energy prices keep rising, domestic US energy costs and global inflationary pressures are climbing simultaneously. The longer the US-Iran conflict lasts, the more uncontrollable its spillover impact on the global economy will be, which may eventually lead the global economy into weakness.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.
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