Intel Earnings Boost U.S. Stock Futures; U.S.-Iran Stalemate Dominates Energy and Metal Market Trends
As of April 24, although the recent geopolitical risk premium has declined, the U.S.-Iran stalemate remains unbroken, and investors are maintaining a cautious attitude ahead of the weekend. The technology sector performed strongly; boosted by Intel's strong earnings expectations, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%. Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude maintaining above $105 per barrel. The metal sector generally weakened, with spot silver falling more than 1%. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation has heightened market concerns about the global economic outlook, leading to a comprehensive decline in industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel.
Currently, the U.S.-Iran stalemate continues to escalate, and market concerns about the situation intensifying are growing. Global stock markets are under overall pressure, with only the technology sector performing relatively strongly. The substantial obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices up for the fifth consecutive day, and Brent crude is expected to record its largest weekly gain since the outbreak of the conflict. At the same time, the unclear situation in the Middle East has dampened expectations for the global economic outlook, directly dragging down metal prices collectively.
On Friday, April 24, major global markets showed a differentiated trend: U.S. stock index futures were divided, with Dow Jones futures falling slightly and Nasdaq 100 futures rising against the trend; most European stocks opened lower, while Asian stock markets were mixed; both the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the Bloomberg Dollar Index are expected to post their first weekly gains in a month; oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude steadily maintaining above $105 per barrel; the metal sector generally weakened, with spot gold falling more than 0.3% to below $4,680 per ounce, spot silver falling more than 1%, and base metals such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel all turning green (declining).
Although the recent geopolitical risk premium has declined, investors remain cautious ahead of the weekend. The direction of market sentiment mainly depends on whether the Iranian situation further escalates or is resolved through diplomatic channels. Traders will closely monitor the diplomatic signals released by both the U.S. and Iran, as well as navigation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, to assess the potential risks to global energy supply. Industry analysts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, it may further push up oil prices and drag down the pace of global economic growth.
In terms of the stock market, the technology sector performed particularly brightly. After Intel released strong earnings expectations, Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 0.5%. It is reported that Intel's first-quarter revenue, gross profit margin, and earnings per share all exceeded the upper limit of previous guidance, marking the company's sixth consecutive quarter of exceeding market financial expectations. This performance has significantly boosted sentiment in the technology sector and U.S. stock index futures.
Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at Forex.com, said: "There is considerable uncertainty in the diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran. More worrying is that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. With no clear reopening plan, market uncertainty remains high."
The core market trends are as follows:
U.S. Stock Index Futures: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.07%, S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose more than 0.6%.
European Stock Markets: Euro Stoxx 50 Index opened down 0.4%, Germany's DAX Index opened flat, the UK's FTSE 100 Index fell 0.5%, and France's CAC 40 Index fell 0.7%.
Asian Pacific Stock Markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed up 1% at 59,716.18 points; Japan's TOPIX Index closed almost unchanged at 3,716.59 points; South Korea's KOSPI Index closed almost unchanged at 6,475.63 points.
Other Stock Indices: NIFTY IT Index fell 5.3%, on track to hit its lowest level since June 2023.
Treasury Bond Market: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat at 4.33%.
Foreign Exchange Market: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed; the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen turned down 0.1% to 159.60.
Energy Market: Brent crude rose 1% to $106 per barrel; WTI crude rose 0.5% to $96 per barrel.
Precious Metals Market: Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,681.92 per ounce; New York silver fell 2.0% intraday to $74.42 per ounce; spot silver fell 1.5% intraday to $74.25 per ounce.
Major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower overnight, but boosted by Intel's better-than-expected sales guidance, its after-hours stock price surged 20%, directly driving Nasdaq 100 Index futures higher. The semiconductor sector continued its strong performance during U.S. stock trading hours, rising for the 17th consecutive trading day, becoming the core supporting force of the technology sector.
Despite the increased market volatility caused by geopolitical risks, corporate earnings remain resilient. Bloomberg data shows that nearly 80% of S&P 500 constituent companies that have reported quarterly results have exceeded market expectations. Adam Hetts and Oliver Blackbourn of Janus Henderson said that with the outbreak of the Iranian conflict, market volatility has increased, but financial markets have proven to be relatively resilient.
In the energy market, Brent crude rose 0.5% to above $105.5 per barrel, having previously given up a 1.9% gain. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group in Zurich, said: "As long as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be restricted, the market remains tight, and oil inventories continue to decline, oil prices will receive strong support."
In the metal market, the uncertainty of the Iranian situation has heightened concerns about global economic growth, dragging down base metals generally. LME copper fell more than 0.8%, LME aluminum fell more than 0.6%, and LME tin fell 0.4%. Analysts at BMI, an institution under Fitch Solutions, said in a report: "Currently, we expect the unclear global economic outlook to dampen optimism on the supply side of metals."
In addition to base metals, precious metals also declined simultaneously. Spot gold fell below the key level of $4,700 per ounce, and spot silver fell more than 1% to below $75 per ounce. Market safe-haven demand failed to effectively support precious metal prices.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.
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