Iran rejects the "ceasefire agreement", the United States plans a "ground attack", and oil prices open above $115

# Escalating Middle East Conflict and Strait Risks Push Brent Oil Above $115/Barrel

By Long Yue

Source: Wall Street News

Escalating Middle East tensions and heightened strait risks have driven Brent crude oil prices above $115 per barrel. Reports indicate the U.S. is preparing for ground operations and considering seizing Iran’s **Kharg Island** and enriched uranium, while Iran has rejected a U.S.-proposed ceasefire. Stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Houthi threats to shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has increased uncertainty in energy transportation. Should Kharg Island become a military target, oil price volatility could intensify further.

As Iran rejected the U.S.-proposed ceasefire and the U.S. ramped up military deployments in the Persian Gulf, market concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict intensified, triggering a sharp rise in international oil prices.

In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent crude futures opened 2.9% higher at $115.84 per barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures also rose 1.7% to $101.35 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures declined, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%, extending the sell-off trend from the end of last week.

With the conflict expanding—particularly following the Houthi movement’s entry into the fray—critical global energy and cargo shipping routes face severe threats, significantly boosting market risk aversion.

## Iran Rejects 15-Point Ceasefire Proposal

Diplomatic efforts have yielded no substantive progress amid ongoing military clashes. According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani stated on March 29 (local time) that the proposals submitted to Iran by the U.S. via mediators are “extreme and unreasonable.”

Kanaani emphasized that these proposals involve Iran’s fundamental rights and lack goodwill or a serious diplomatic stance. He stressed that Iran must safeguard its security through its own capabilities and will use all means to prevent further attacks.

As reported by Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on March 29 that while the U.S. publicly signals willingness to negotiate, it is secretly planning a ground offensive and has put forward a so-called “15-point plan” to end the conflict, attempting to achieve objectives it cannot win on the battlefield. Ghalibaf emphasized that the U.S. seeks Iran’s surrender, and “our answer is clear: we will never accept humiliation.”

## U.S. Steps Up Troop Deployments, Plans Ground Operations

Despite repeated mentions of diplomatic progress by senior U.S. officials, U.S. military deployments in the Middle East continue to intensify. According to Global Times, U.S. media quoted American officials as saying the Pentagon is preparing for a “weeks-long ground operation” in Iran.

U.S. Central Command announced that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, aboard the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, has arrived in the Middle East. The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is also speeding toward the region. These military movements have heightened market fears that the conflict could escalate into a full-scale war.

Additionally, U.S. officials revealed that to expand operational options, the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region. The U.S. military is also preparing contingency plans, including deploying rapid-response Marines and paratroopers from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to seize strategic locations such as key islands off Iran’s southern coast.

Iran has responded with tough rhetoric. According to Global Times, a spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned on March 29 that any U.S. ground operation in Iran would only “plunge [the U.S.] into an abyss of captivity and death,” adding that “sharks in the Persian Gulf are waiting for U.S. soldiers.”

## Reports: U.S. Plans to Seize Iran’s Enriched Uranium and Kharg Island

U.S. media reported on March 29 that President Donald Trump is considering a high-risk, complex military operation to penetrate deep into Iran and seize nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium.

Sources familiar with the matter said Trump has not made a final decision but wants Iran’s surrender of nuclear materials as a condition for ending the war. If Iran refuses to compromise at the negotiating table, the U.S. may use force to seize the materials. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously hinted that the U.S. has military options to force Iran to hand over nuclear materials.

A forced seizure of enriched uranium would be extremely complex and dangerous. Elite special forces would need to fly to targets under threat from anti-aircraft missiles and drones, clear mines, search rubble, and load nuclear materials into specialized transport containers—a process that could take days or even a week. This would not only carry high casualty risks but also potentially extend the originally planned 4–6 week war timeline.

Under current circumstances, **Kharg Island** has emerged as a potential critical node. As one of Iran’s most important oil export terminals, it handles a large volume of crude oil loading. Control or destruction of this node would deliver an even greater shock to oil prices.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, President Trump stated that he wants to “seize” Iran’s oil and does not rule out occupying Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub. Trump told the British newspaper that he wants to “seize oil” from Iran, just as he did in Venezuela.

## Houthi Movement Enters Conflict, Threatens Shipping Chokepoints

The conflict is expanding geographically. Yemen’s Houthi movement confirmed on March 28 that it had used ballistic missiles to strike sensitive Israeli military targets for the first time. This move not only marks the Houthi movement’s formal entry into the conflict but also poses new threats to global shipping.

Reports suggest that if the Houthis open a new front in the conflict, their target could be the **Bab el-Mandeb Strait**—a vital maritime chokepoint leading to the Suez Canal. Houthi Information Ministry Deputy Mansour warned: “Closing the [Bab el-Mandeb] Strait is one of our options.”

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blockaded for a month. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also comes under threat, the transportation of a massive volume of global container shipping and 12% of seaborne oil would face severe disruption—a development that would deal a devastating blow to global supply chains and energy markets.

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