Morning News

# Source: Wall Street见闻 (Wall Street CN)

## Market Overview

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent dovish signals, providing support to the recently battered bond market. However, the ongoing escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, combined with the earlier impact of Google's new storage technology, led U.S. stocks to open higher but close lower. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.2% during the session and closed down 0.73%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged nearly 5% at one point. Memory chip stocks led the decline: Micron Technology plummeted nearly 10%, Western Digital fell 8.6%, and Coherent dropped 9.8%. The financial index rose 1.1%. Asset management firm shares advanced, with Blackstone gaining 3.3% and KKR rising 2.1%. Bill Ackman touted a "10-bagger opportunity," sending Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soaring approximately 50%.

Powell's dovish remarks prompted the market to reprice in rate cuts for this year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell nearly 8 basis points, while the 2-year yield dropped 8.6 basis points.

Signs of a global U.S. dollar shortage persisted, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% for its fifth consecutive trading day of gains.

Cryptocurrencies rose. Gold prices jumped 3.6% from their session lows before paring gains to end flat versus Friday's close. WTI crude oil futures surged over 3% to around $103 per barrel, closing above $100 for the first time since July 2022. Brent crude underperformed WTI but also closed higher.

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from lows to close up 0.2%, led by a rally in non-ferrous aluminum stocks and active innovative pharmaceutical plays. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell nearly 2%, with tech and internet stocks broadly weak.

## Key News

### China

- **State Administration for Market Regulation**: Vowed to curb "involution-style" competition in key sectors including the platform economy and new energy vehicles.

- **Innovative Optical and Electrical (Innovative Optoelectronics)**: Reported a 60% surge in 2025 revenue and a doubling of net profit. The company proposed a dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares.

- **Montage Technology**: Driven by booming AI server demand, the company's 2025 net profit rose 58% year-on-year. Its H-share IPO was oversubscribed 60 times.

- **Verisilicon Holdings**: Achieved record-high revenue in 2025, with net loss narrowing to 528 million yuan. AI computing power revenue accounted for 64% of total revenue.

- **Ganfeng Lithium**: Returned to profit in 2025 as lithium prices rebounded and non-recurring gains were booked. Net profit attributable to shareholders jumped 178%.

- **Kweichow Moutai**: The 1,499-yuan price cap is history. The liquor giant announced its first dual price hike in eight years.

- **CAS Space**: Successfully launched the Lijian-2 rocket with three satellites aboard. Its unit cost is now competitive with SpaceX.

- **DRAM Prices Plunge**: The sharp drop is suspected to be caused by suppressed consumer demand.

### Overseas

- **Powell**: Fed rates are in a "favorable position." The central bank can look past Iran-related oil price shocks but must remain vigilant about changes in inflation expectations. Powell's comments shifted trader bets, reviving rate-cut hopes for this year. U.S. bond yields extended their decline, once again decoupling from oil prices.

- **White House**: Trump wants a deal by April 6 and is pushing Arab nations to foot the bill. U.S.-Iran talks are ongoing and making progress, but Iran has denied negotiations. Trump threatened to "destroy all Iranian power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island" if no deal is reached. Iran responded that an attack would trigger a blackout across the entire region. The G7 is preparing measures to stabilize energy markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism that oil price pressures will ease and stated the U.S. will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament approved a bill to levy fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

- **Hedge Fund Titan Touts "10-Bagger Opportunity"**: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac skyrocketed around 50%.

## Market Close

### U.S. & European Equities

- **S&P 500**: -0.39% to 6,343.72 (opened higher, closed lower)

- **Dow Jones Industrial Average**: +0.11% to 45,216.14

- **Nasdaq Composite**: -0.73% to 20,794.64

- **Euro Stoxx 600**: +0.94% to 580.73

### A-Shares

- **Shanghai Composite Index**: +0.24% to 3,923.29

- **Shenzhen Component Index**: -0.25% to 13,726.19

- **ChiNext Index**: -0.68% to 3,273.36

### Bond Market

- **U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield**: -8.95 bps to 4.3383%

- **U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield**: -9.22 bps to 3.8197% (traded between 3.8955% and 3.8054% during the session)

### Commodities

- **WTI Crude Oil (May)**: +3.25% to $102.88/bbl (first close above $100 since July 2022)

- **Brent Crude Oil (May)**: +0.18% to $112.78/bbl

- **Spot Gold**: +0.22% to $4,503.88/oz

- **Spot Silver**: +0.36% to $70.0212/oz

# News Details

## Global Highlights

### China

- **State Administration for Market Regulation**: Vows to curb "involution-style" competition in key sectors including the platform economy and new energy vehicles. It will accurately identify and investigate platform enterprises that, without justifiable reasons, use tactics such as search ranking manipulation, business evaluation control, algorithmic control, traffic restriction, product delisting, fee increases, payment term delays, transaction suspension, and internal disciplinary measures. It will also penalize platforms that force or indirectly force merchants to sell goods below cost through subsidies, discounts, red envelopes, "full-reduction" offers, "buy-one-get-one-free" promotions, and other marketing activities, thereby disrupting market competition order.

- **Zhongji Innolight Co., Ltd. (300308.SZ)**: 2025 revenue surged 60%, net profit doubled; proposes a dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares. The company's full-year revenue reached 38.24 billion yuan, up 60.25% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.797 billion yuan, up 108.78% YoY. Optical modules were the main driver, generating 37.457 billion yuan in revenue (up 63.67% YoY), accounting for 97.95% of total revenue. The product mix continued to upgrade toward high-end, with increasing shipment ratios of high-margin 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules.

- **Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (688008.SH)**: Booming AI server demand drives 58% YoY net profit growth in 2025; H-share IPO oversubscribed 60 times. The company achieved record-high revenue of 5.456 billion yuan and net profit of 2.236 billion yuan in 2025, up 49.9% and 58.4% YoY respectively. Benefiting from explosive AI server demand, it retained the global No. 1 position in the memory interface chip market with a 36.8% share and ranked No. 2 globally in the PCIe Retimer market. It completed its Hong Kong IPO, with H-share subscriptions exceeding $30 billion and 60x oversubscription, officially forming an A+H dual capital platform.

- **Verisilicon Holdings Co., Ltd.**: 2025 revenue hits record high, net loss narrows to 528 million yuan; AI computing revenue share rises to 64%. The company recorded revenue of 3.152 billion yuan in 2025 (up 35.77% YoY) and a net loss of 528 million yuan (loss narrowed by 12.1%). New orders saw explosive growth, reaching 5.96 billion yuan for the full year (up 103.41% YoY), with over 50% from the data processing sector, mainly cloud-side AI ASICs and IP. AI computing-related revenue accounted for 64.43% of total revenue; R&D intensity reached 42.78%; global shipments of NPU IP chips neared 200 million units.

- **Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd.**: Returns to profit in 2025 as lithium prices rebound and non-recurring gains kick in; net profit surges 178% YoY. The company achieved revenue of 23.082 billion yuan in 2025 (up 22.08% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.613 billion yuan, returning to profitability. The turnaround was mainly driven by a strong rebound in lithium prices in the second half of the year, plus nearly 2 billion yuan in non-recurring gains from subsidiary disposals and PLS share price increases. Adjusted net profit remained a loss of 385 million yuan. Gross margin for lithium products rose to 15.52%; lithium battery business grew 39.63%; solid-state batteries achieved breakthroughs in the low-altitude economy sector.

- **Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.**: The 1,499-yuan price cap is history; Moutai announces "dual price hike" for the first time in eight years. Effective March 31, 2026, the contract price for Feitian 53%vol 500ml Moutai (2026 vintage) will be raised from 1,169 yuan to 1,269 yuan per bottle; the retail price in its self-operated system will be increased from 1,499 yuan to 1,539 yuan per bottle, representing increases of 100 yuan and 40 yuan respectively.

- **CAS Space**: Successful maiden launch of Lijian-2 rocket with three satellites; unit cost approaches SpaceX's level. The commander-in-chief of Lijian-2 stated that the current unit cost of Lijian-2 in non-reusable mode is roughly on par with that of SpaceX's Falcon 9 in reusable mode. He added that after achieving cluster recovery in the future, the cost is expected to drop to half of SpaceX's.

- **DRAM prices plunge, memory stocks slump; is the memory supercycle peaking?** Spot DRAM prices have fallen sharply recently, dragging down shares of Micron and others. Analyst Dan Nystedt views this as a signal that the traditional cycle has peaked, as handset makers refuse to accept high DDR4 prices. However, analyst Jukan argues that price resistance is limited to legacy memory; demand for DDR5 and HBM remains strong, and memory companies are no longer "cyclical stocks." HSBC believes current market concerns are overblown, and AI-driven demand remains robust.

### Overseas

- **Iran**: No direct talks with U.S.; acting defense minister vows to "punish aggressors with full force." On March 30 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani stated that Iran has not held direct talks with the U.S., only conveying messages through third parties. Iranian Acting Defense Minister Reza Talaei-Nik said Iran will continue to "punish aggressors with full force, form effective deterrence, and ensure that wars and acts of aggression do not recur." Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref claimed that Iran's enemies are "begging us to negotiate."

- **Hedge fund titan touts "10-bagger opportunity"; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac surge 41% and 34% intraday**. Boosted by Bill Ackman's public bullish call, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both posted their largest single-day gains since May 2025 on Monday, rising as much as 41% and 34% respectively. Ackman said on social media that the two institutions offer "the best asymmetric opportunity" and predicted a potential 10x return. Despite the surge, both stocks are still down about 60% from their September 2025 highs, with lingering doubts over the government's conservatorship exit plan continuing to weigh on valuations; policy implementation remains the key variable.

## Selected Research Reports

- **Iran conflict reshapes "energy landscape"; major oil and gas buyers shift to coal and new energy**. The Persian Gulf conflict has triggered a second global energy supply crisis, accelerating the collapse of the "transition fuel" narrative for natural gas. Major economies in Asia and Europe are turning back to coal; European coal-fired power generation may surge 20% this summer, while India, Japan, and Bangladesh are rushing to restart coal-fired units. Meanwhile, capital markets are betting on new energy, with shares of CATL and BYD rising more than 15%.

- **S&P 500 valuation multiple "peaks" and retreats; Goldman Sachs: Market may be approaching "growth shock" scenario**. The triple pressure of soaring oil prices, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty has pushed the S&P 500's forward 12-month P/E ratio down sharply from 22x a month ago to 19x, a 14% drop. Goldman Sachs warns that current market trends are increasingly aligning with its previously outlined "growth shock" scenario; if geopolitical conflicts escalate further, U.S. stocks face additional downside risks. Based on historical S&P 500 declines during severe oil supply shocks, the index could fall to 5,400 points, about 15% below current levels.

- **U.S. stock net selling pressure nears COVID crash peak; Goldman Sachs: CTAs to turn fully bullish in one month**. Goldman Sachs analysts note that trend-following systematic investors (CTAs) have sold about $190 billion in stocks over the past month, currently holding a net short position of about $50 billion in global equities, but their selling momentum is drying up. Regardless of market direction, CTAs will shift to net buying within the next month. Meanwhile, pension fund quarter-end rebalancing buying is expected to enter the market, and option market makers' approximately $7 billion negative Gamma exposure will expire and dissipate by month-end, with multiple technical pressures set to ease simultaneously.

- **Morgan Stanley's Wilson: S&P 500 correction nearing its end; market has fully priced in U.S. recession risk**. Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist stated that the cumulative probability of resuming tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is far higher than the probability of a recession. The current valuation compression is roughly in line with historical corrections during non-recessionary, non-hiking cycles. However, he warned that interest rate sensitivity has risen to its highest level in recent years, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching the critical 4.5% threshold; rate hikes remain the core risk variable for equities.

- **Markets and central banks turn hawkish; Goldman Sachs explores hedging strategies**. Energy price shocks combined with central bank hawkish shifts are triggering an unprecedented aggressive repricing in global rate markets. Goldman Sachs warns that this repricing has clearly overshot, with policymakers overly analogizing current inflation shocks to the 2022 experience. Clear asymmetric long opportunities exist in front-end rates, while downside tail risks in U.S. equities and credit markets remain underpriced.

- **"Ceasefire" does not equal "normalization"; 2026 to be more "stagflationary" than expected**. Nomura warns that even if a ceasefire occurs between the U.S. and Iran, it will not immediately normalize energy trade. The time lag between ceasefire and normalization could make the 2026 global environment more "stagflationary": inflation and interest rates passively rise, while economic growth and equity valuations come under pressure. During this period, the U.S. dollar and U.S. assets will maintain relative strength; shorting the dollar should not be rushed.

- **From high-yield myth to liquidity crisis: How big are the hidden risks in private capital?** The global private capital empire, holding $22 trillion in assets, is facing its most severe stress test since 2008: nearly $4 trillion in deals are stuck in exit logjams, "semi-liquid" fund redemption gates have been triggered one after another, and AI shocks have sparked a wave of software asset write-downs. As the high-yield myth fades, the retirement savings of tens of millions of ordinary savers have been quietly drawn into this liquidity gamble.

# Domestic Macro

China is building a high-speed railway under the Yangtze River! "Linghang Hao," the world's largest-diameter high-speed rail tunnel boring machine (TBM), has successfully "landed" after 23 months of safe excavation. The TBM, used for the Chongtai Yangtze River Tunnel, completed the 11.18-kilometer underwater section. The Chongtai Yangtze River Tunnel is currently China's high-speed rail river-crossing tunnel project with the highest construction standards, longest excavation distance, and largest scale. As a landmark project of the Yangtze River High-speed Railway, a major project of the 15th Five-Year Plan, construction is accelerating. Stretching approximately 2,000 kilometers, it will extend from Shanghai to Chengdu, connecting three major city clusters.

When will Hong Kong stocks bottom out? The strategy team of Zhang Qiyao at Industrial Securities believes that Hong Kong stocks will fluctuate "in tandem" amid short-term geopolitical conflicts, but pessimistic expectations have been fully priced in. In the medium term, the U.S.-Iran conflict is more likely to de-escalate, and the market may have overpriced liquidity tightening. A panic sell-off would present an opportunity for an oversold rebound. A sustained uptrend requires signals of anti-involution, catalysts from large models, and validation of fundamental data. The optimal strategy is to "wait and see"; if unexpected U.S. military actions trigger a market panic sell-off, it could be the real opportunity for TACO and an oversold rebound.

# Domestic Companies

CEO of Unitree Robotics: Robots will be able to generate arbitrary movements and autonomously duel in six months. Wang Xingxing, CEO of Unitree Robotics, stated that robots are expected to generate any movements in about six months, with the richness of movements directly determining the level of intelligence. While basic locomotion and movements have been largely mastered, tactile technologies such as grasping and manipulation remain key bottlenecks restricting large-scale deployment. Xiao Song, President of Siemens Greater China, noted that humanoid robots performing simple factory tasks may be realized within one to two years, but deep integration into core production will take 5 to 10 years.

A domestically developed world model tops the global rankings! It outperforms Google and NVIDIA by a wide margin, with 3D accuracy approaching perfection. GigaWorld-1, a Chinese-developed embodied world model, ranked first in the global authoritative benchmark WorldArena, becoming the only embodied world model with a composite score exceeding 60 points. It leads Google and NVIDIA by a significant margin in three dimensions: physical adherence, 3D accuracy, and visual quality. Its core technology integrates explicit action modeling and a differentiable physics engine, and it has been downloaded over 16,000 times within half a month of open-sourcing.

Using an AI "lobster" to trade stocks: Some investors claim a "stunning 90% monthly return," while others lost 80,000 yuan from 200,000 yuan. The AI "lobster" stock-trading service has sparked heated debate. The "90% monthly profit" myth is actually the result of U.S. stock simulation trading with leverage. Humans set the basic framework, the AI generates trading strategies, and the "lobster" is merely an execution vehicle. Professionals warn against letting the lobster fully manage live trading, emphasizing that its core role is to assist investment decisions, not replace human judgment.

Bank of China 2025 Annual Report: Revenue and net profit grow steadily, and "going global" advantages continue to expand.

Agricultural Bank of China 2025 Results: Total assets approach 49 trillion yuan, and rural finance accelerates.

China Minsheng Bank 2025 Annual Report released: Net interest margin rises rarely, but a profit inflection point is still awaited.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (AMEC) 2025 revenue surges 36.6% YoY, net profit up 30.7% YoY; proposes a cash dividend of 3.50 yuan and a 4.9-share bonus for every 10 shares. The company achieved full-year revenue of 12.385 billion yuan, up 36.62% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.111 billion yuan, up 30.69% YoY. Etching equipment remained the main growth driver, with sales of 9.832 billion yuan, up 35.12% YoY. Thin-film equipment saw explosive growth: LPCVD equipment sales reached 506 million yuan, surging 224.23% YoY. The company proposes a cash dividend of 3.50 yuan (tax-inclusive) per 10 shares, totaling approximately 219 million yuan, and a 4.9-share bonus per 10 shares, increasing share capital from 626 million to 933 million shares.

AI drives semiconductor industry recovery; GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. 2025 revenue up 25%, net profit up 49%. GigaDevice achieved full-year 2025 revenue of 9.203 billion yuan, up 25.12% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.648 billion yuan, up 49.47% YoY, with significantly improved profitability. Specialized memory products were the main growth driver, with prices for niche DRAM and SLC NAND Flash rising sharply during the reporting period.

Biren Technology 2025 revenue surges 207%, adjusted loss widens.

SERES Group 2025 net profit increases only slightly; AITO deliveries reach 426,000 units; plans share repurchase of 1-2 billion yuan. Affected by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian refineries halted production and ports suspended loading, reducing exports to China to nearly zero. March arrivals plummeted by over 50% YoY, and port inventories fell to a five-year low (approximately 1.55-1.71 million tons), sufficient for only 1.2 months. On the demand side, spring plowing fertilizer needs are concentrated, with phosphorous chemical enterprises operating at 75%-80% capacity. Meanwhile, new energy and sulfuric acid industries are restocking simultaneously, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches.

## 5. Computing Power

According to People's Finance News, on March 26, the 11,000P intelligent computing cluster invested and built by Shenzhen was officially launched. Combined with the 3,000P launched earlier last year, the cluster now has a total capacity of 14,000P. This is China's first 10,000-card-level fully independent and controllable intelligent computing cluster built entirely with domestic advanced chips.

**Comment**: This intelligent computing cluster is China's first 10,000-card Ascend super-node intelligent computing cluster. Its launch marks a breakthrough in Shenzhen's construction of an independent and controllable computing power infrastructure. The project uses all domestic advanced chips and relies on full-stack independent and controllable technology to build an internationally competitive "Ascend + CAAN" independent software and hardware ecosystem. It effectively guides innovation in AI underlying technologies and promotes the localization of key technologies. The Shenzhen cluster provides a systematic and engineering demonstration for "full-stack independent controllability," driving the implementation of national policies on data elements and AI infrastructure. This year's Government Work Report focuses on new quality productive forces, emphasizing policies to drive industrial innovation while advancing cutting-edge layout and independent controllability.

## 6. Smart Ports

The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the **Smart Shipping 2030 Action Plan**. The plan proposes deepening the construction of smart ports and accelerating the development of smart waterways. By 2027, AI technologies will be deeply integrated with shipping elements, and breakthroughs will be made in core smart shipping technologies. More than three comprehensive smart shipping pilot zones will be established, more than five smart shipping pilot routes opened, more than ten replicable smart shipping scenarios created, and over 100 smart ships operated, fostering new drivers for shipping development.

**Comment**: The deep integration of new-generation information technologies represented by AI with shipping elements is creating全新 market value. The development of smart shipping will benefit the entire industrial chain from equipment manufacturing to operation services, spawning a number of high-growth market segments. As technology matures and costs decline, the commercial application of smart ships will accelerate, driving growth in markets for on-board sensing, decision-making control, and remote piloting systems. In the future, automation and intelligent transformation of existing terminals will become a huge incremental market, in addition to new terminal construction. Under the global "dual carbon" goals, smart shipping is a key path for the green and low-carbon transformation of the shipping industry, opening up new value spaces for the market.

## 7. CAR-T

According to Xinhua News Agency, an international team involving the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden has developed a new method to directly generate chimeric antigen receptor T cells (CAR-T) with tumor-targeting and killing capabilities in vivo, providing a new approach to cancer immunotherapy. The method delivers gene-editing tools and genetic information for tumor recognition directly to T cells in the blood, enabling "reprogramming" in vivo. Tests in humanized immune system mouse models showed that a single injection eliminated detectable cancer in nearly all mice within two weeks.

**Comment**: CAR-T therapy is a cutting-edge immunotherapy mainly used to treat hematological malignancies. It works by genetically engineering patients' immune T cells to more effectively recognize and attack tumor cells. CAR-T is currently a "rising star" in T-cell immunotherapy for cancer, hailed as the ultimate tumor therapy. CAR-T therapy is at a critical juncture of transitioning from "personalized high-priced drugs" to "standardized affordable drugs". Authoritative institutions predict that as stem cell, immune cell, and other somatic cell therapies achieve efficacy in regenerative medicine, cancer treatment, rare diseases, and geriatric diseases that chemical and targeted drugs cannot match, the global cell therapy market is expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars in recent years.

# Today's News Preview

- China's March official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs

- U.S. February JOLTS job openings

- U.S. January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index

- U.S. March Conference Board Consumer Confidence

- Eurozone March CPI

- UK Q4 GDP

- Japan March Tokyo CPI

- Speeches by Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

- Nike earnings release

- French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Japan

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# Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is risky, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk.