The United States and Iran released a ceasefire signal, global stocks and bonds rose, the US dollar weakened slightly, Brent oil fell below 100, and gold stood above 4,700

# By Zhao Ying, Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wallstreetcn

Markets ignited on dual positive signals: Trump vowed to end the war “in two to three weeks,” while Iran’s president simultaneously expressed willingness to negotiate. European stocks opened sharply higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.6% at the open; U.S. equity futures advanced, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 1.0%, S&P 500 futures 0.7%, and Dow futures 0.6%. Japanese stocks surged 4%, and South Korean shares jumped over 6%, triggering a circuit breaker. Brent crude fell 5.0% on the day to $98.69 a barrel; WTI crude dropped 4.5% to $96.72 a barrel.

Asian equities staged a sharp rebound on Wednesday, and bonds extended gains, as markets bet the five-week U.S.-Iran conflict may be nearing its end. But analysts warned uncertainties remain over the Strait of Hormuz, and market volatility is far from over.

According to CCTV News, Iranian President **Masoud Pezeshkian** stated Iran is willing to end the war provided its demands are met, particularly guarantees against future aggression. Separately, Xinhua News Agency reported U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House on the evening of March 31 that the U.S. will end military operations against Iran “in two to three weeks,” possibly reaching a deal with Iran before then. A broad Asian stock gauge rallied 4.4%, bouncing sharply from its worst monthly drop in over 17 years. European stocks opened sharply higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 2.6% at the open.

The U.S. dollar softened slightly, and U.S. and European government bonds rose across the board. However, crude oil prices, which had fallen sharply, recovered some ground amid uncertainty over the war’s path and the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent trading around $105 a barrel.

A resolution to the conflict would likely restore investor confidence. The five-week conflict has roiled energy and equity assets, pushing multiple indices into correction territory. Markets are also closely watching policymakers’ responses to soaring energy costs and supply disruptions, as well as whether corporate earnings due this month will confirm the extent of economic stress.

### Global Market Moves

**European Stocks**

- Euro Stoxx 50: +2.6% at open

- Germany’s DAX: +3.1%

- UK’s FTSE 100: +1.6%

- France’s CAC 40: +2.4%

**U.S. Equity Futures**

- Nasdaq 100: +1.0%

- S&P 500: +0.7%

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.6%

**Asian Stocks**

- Nikkei 225 (Japan): +5.2% to 53,739.68

- Topix (Japan): +4.9% to 3,670.90

- KOSPI (South Korea): +8.4% to 5,478.70

 - Tech stocks led gains: sector index +7%; chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rose over 10%

**Bonds**

- U.S. Treasuries: 2-year and 10-year yields down 6 bps to 3.73% and 4.26%, respectively

- European government bonds: UK, French, Italian yields down 10+ bps; markets scaled back rate-hike bets for this year

 - Germany’s 10-year yield: -6 bps to 2.94% (lowest since March 18)

- Japan: 30-year and 40-year yields down 8.5 bps; 40-year yield -12 bps to 3.795%

**Currencies**

- Dollar Index: -0.4% at one point

- Euro: +0.1% to $1.1565

**Commodities**

- **Gold**: Extended gains for a 4th straight session, trading around $4,690/oz

- **Oil**:

 - Brent crude: -5.0% to $98.69/bbl

 - WTI crude: -4.5% to $96.72/bbl

- **Iron Ore (Singapore)**: +1.3% at one point to $106.70/ton. It rose over 7% in March to settle at $105.48/ton, ending two months of declines.

### Asian Tech Leads; Gold Rises 4 Days Straight

Asian tech stocks outperformed in the rebound, with the sectoral index surging 7%. Chipmakers including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped more than 10% each. Gainers outnumbered losers by 9-to-1 in the **MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index**, reflecting a broad-based rally.

Among major markets:

- South Korea’s KOSPI: +8.4% to 5,478.70

- Nikkei 225: +4.5%

- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: +2.0% to 8,648.90 (highest since March 18)

- India’s Nifty 50: +2.5%

- Japan’s 30-year and 40-year JGB yields: both down 8.5 bps

Gold extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, trading near $4,690 an ounce. Despite the recent bounce, gold tumbled nearly 12% in March—its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower, after rising 2.4% in March, as the dollar acted as the primary safe-haven asset during the war.

Bloomberg strategist Garfield Reynolds assessed that while stocks and bonds rallied on optimism the U.S.-Iran war may be nearing an end, Asian risk assets still face potential pressure to underperform persistently given the high likelihood of prolonged restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

### Iron Ore Extends Gains; Australia’s Supply Risks Rise

Iron ore markets strengthened in tandem. Singapore iron ore futures rose as much as 1.3% on Wednesday to $106.70 a ton, after surging more than 7% in March to settle at $105.48—ending two straight months of declines. Dalian iron ore futures also rose nearly 8% in March and extended gains Wednesday.

Market focus is shifting to risks of diesel shortages in Australia stemming from the Middle East conflict, and the impact of the current cyclone season in the world’s top iron ore exporter. Minor producer Fenix Resources warned last week that fuel shortages are beginning to disrupt industry operations.

Bancy Bai, analyst at consultant Horizon Insights, said diesel shortages could lower mining and transport efficiency at small-to-medium mines, but “the impact on mining operations remains relatively limited for now.” She added Australia has about 30 days of diesel inventories.

Rio Tinto said this week Australia’s cyclone season has affected about 8 million tons of production, but roughly half is expected to be recovered, leaving full-year guidance unchanged. Its **Cape Lambert A** export terminal, damaged by Tropical Storm Narelle, is expected to resume loading in days.

Meanwhile, the Minerals Council of Australia is seeking approval from competition regulators to let major miners coordinate on fuel security strategies, The Australian reported.

WTI crude stabilized after falling 1.5% on Tuesday, hovering around $102 a barrel.

**To be continued**

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