Morning News

**Source: Wallstreetcn**

### Market Overview

U.S. stocks rose for a second straight session as investors bet the conflict between the U.S. and Iran was nearing an end. The Nasdaq was up 1.8% at one point, but gains narrowed after midday reports that the U.S. Department of Defense was accelerating deployments of A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft. The S&P 500 closed 0.72% higher, and the Nasdaq 1.16%.

The energy sector fell nearly 5% during the session. The memory chip sector surged 8%, with Micron Technology rising nearly 9% and Western Data jumping 10%. Eli Lilly gained 3.78% after its oral weight-loss drug Foundayo was approved by the U.S. FDA. Google rose more than 3%, and the **Magnificent Seven** posted their best two-day performance in nearly a year.

U.S. ADP employment beat expectations, and the ISM manufacturing prices-paid component signaled rising inflationary pressures. U.S. Treasury yields bounced back in a V-shape to end flat, with the 2-year yield edging up 0.4 basis points.

The U.S. dollar fell for a second day. Bitcoin briefly topped $69,000 before paring gains to trade flat around $68,000. Ethereum rose 1.7%.

Gold rose nearly 2%, strengthening for four sessions in a row and approaching $4,800 at one point. Spot silver and New York copper edged lower in volatile trade.

Crude oil plunged about 7% from daily highs before rebounding to trade around $100. WTI crude closed nearly 3% lower late in New York, and Brent crude fell more than 3%.

During Asian trading hours, China’s **ChiNext** rose nearly 2%, led by a sharp rally in pharmaceutical stocks. **LAPLACE** (688726.SH) surged but gave up gains to close near its opening price. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 2%, with **Zhipu AI** soaring over 30%.

### Key News

**China**

- **Li Qiang**: Stress efforts to build new power grid systems and accelerate energy structure adjustment and optimization.

- **China March Manufacturing PMI (RatingDog)**: 50.8, expanding for four consecutive months, but price and supply chain pressures intensify.

- **Amid global conflict, Chinese government bonds stand as the world’s only safe haven**.

**Overseas**

- **Trump**: Would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz is open. **Iran**: The strait will not open to enemies; claims of a ceasefire request are baseless. Reports say the U.S. will double A-10 deployments to the Middle East. Trump is “seriously considering” U.S. withdrawal from NATO. Iran’s president issues open letter to Americans: The U.S. acts as Israel’s proxy; Iran harbors no hostility toward other nations and will never start a war. Iran reportedly demands ceasefire talks be premised on a permanent end to the war; U.S. intelligence sees no serious Iranian intent to negotiate for now. Trump claims Iran can no longer develop nuclear weapons. The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz, reports say.

- **U.S. Treasury**: Oil prices seen staying above $100 long-term; a rise to $200 not ruled out. **IEA**: Oil supply losses in April will be double those in March, with an impact exceeding the combined scale of three historical crises. Asian nations including the Philippines and South Korea pivot urgently to Russian oil.

- **Iran conflict disrupts global aluminum supply chain**; top Middle Eastern producer shuts refinery.

- **Trump administration** eyes steel/aluminum tariff overhaul: 25% flat rate on steel and aluminum finished products, seen likely to raise import costs.

- **U.S. March ADP employment**: +62,000, well above forecast; wage growth accelerates. U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI strongest since 2022; surge in input costs stokes inflation fears. U.S. February retail sales post biggest rise in 8 months: +0.6% MoM, beating expectations; rebound in auto consumption boosts domestic demand.

- **Energy prices drive** euro zone CPI to fastest growth in four years.

- **$600 million OpenAI stake** sees no buyers in secondary markets; Anthropic shares in hot demand.

- **SpaceX** has secretly filed for a U.S. IPO.

- **U.S. rocket** for crewed lunar orbital mission launches.

- **“Short King” Muddy Waters** shifts to credit debt; CEO bets AI will trigger mass layoffs and default wave.

### Market Closing Levels

**U.S. & European Equities**

- S&P 500: **+0.72%** to 6,575.32

- Dow Jones: **+0.48%** to 46,565.74

- Nasdaq: **+1.16%** to 21,840.947

- Euro Stoxx 600: **+2.50%** to 597.69

**China A-Shares**

- Shanghai Composite: **+1.46%** to 3,948.55

- Shenzhen Component: **+1.70%** to 13,706.52

- ChiNext: **+1.96%** to 3,247.52

**Bonds**

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: **+0.20 bps** to 4.3186%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: **+0.80 bps** to 3.8010%

**Commodities**

- WTI Crude (May): **-1.24%** to $100.12/bbl

- Brent Crude (June): **-2.70%** to $101.16/bbl

- Spot Gold: **+1.91%** to $4,757.17/oz

- Spot Silver: **-0.09%** to $75.0995/oz

# Detailed News

## Global Highlights

### China

**Li Qiang: Focus on building a new type of power grid and accelerate energy structure adjustment and optimization**

Li Qiang stated that efforts should be made to actively explore new architectures, technologies and services, improve grid construction, enhance system coordination and regulation capabilities, strengthen diversified demand security, and build a new type of power grid that is safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, strong, resilient, intelligent and flexible.

**China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI at 50.8, expanding for four consecutive months, but price and supply chain pressures rise**

China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI slowed significantly from February's 52.1, yet remained the second-highest level in nearly six months. However, input prices in March accelerated to the highest level since March 2022, and supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent in over three years. Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, noted that intensified global geopolitical conflicts have amplified volatility in bulk commodity markets, and this imported inflation factor is expected to continue posing a "severe test" to manufacturers' costs in April.

**Amid global conflicts, Chinese government bonds emerge as the world's only safe haven**

The Iran war has roiled global bond markets, yet Chinese government bonds have strengthened against the trend, becoming the sole safe haven amid chaos. U.S. Treasury yields surged 38 basis points, UK gilt yields jumped 70 basis points, while China's 10-year government bond yield edged down to 1.81%. A diversified energy structure, low-inflation environment, expectations of accommodative monetary policy, coupled with predictable central bank policies, are driving global institutional investors to re-examine the long-term strategic value of China's bond market.

### Overseas

**Trump says ceasefire only possible if Hormuz open; Iran: Strait won't open to enemies, ceasefire request claim baseless**

Trump claimed Iran's new president is more rational than his predecessor and has requested a ceasefire with the U.S., adding Washington "will only consider it when the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and unobstructed," and "will bomb Iran into rubble" before that. He also said U.S. troops would soon withdraw from the Iran conflict and he is "absolutely" considering withdrawing from NATO. Iran reiterated it would blockade the strait as a countermeasure, asserting absolute control over the waterway and refusing to reopen it to "the country's enemies" through what it called U.S. presidential "grandstanding."

**U.S. to double A-10 attack aircraft deployment in Middle East; U.S. stock gains narrow**

Reports indicate the U.S. Air Force is sending 18 A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft to the Middle East. The deployment adjustment aims to strengthen close-air support and "low-intensity conflict" capabilities, with the A-10s primarily targeting Iran-backed militias, drones and small boat threats. Doubling the deployment significantly enhances the U.S. military's ability to conduct "sustained suppression" missions in the Gulf region.

**Trump "seriously considering" NATO withdrawal; U.S. Defense Secretary: Allies denied even basic access during Iran operations**

U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated Iran's missiles "can't reach the U.S. homeland" but can strike some NATO allies. Yet, he noted, the world saw NATO allies denied the U.S. even basic transit rights during large-scale operations against Iran. "When America needs these allies and they won't stand with us, the alliance is meaningless," he said.

**Iranian president's open letter to Americans: U.S. acts as Israel's proxy; Iran harbors no hostility, will never start war**

President Pezeshkian said Iran's actions—past and future—are responses based on legitimate self-defense. He accused U.S. military buildup near Iran's borders of constituting a substantive military threat, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure of war crimes. Calling U.S.-Iran relations one of the most misunderstood, he appealed to Americans to look beyond political rhetoric to reassess Iran's position and intentions, questioning whether current U.S. policies serve core "America First" interests. He warned the cost of continued confrontation "is higher than ever and utterly pointless."

**Iran demands ceasefire talks premised on permanent end to war; U.S. intel sees no serious negotiation intent**

U.S. officials revealed intelligence assessments conclude the Iranian government believes it holds a favorable position in the war and thus need not accept U.S. diplomatic demands. While Iran wishes to keep communication channels open, it distrusts the U.S. and doubts Trump's sincerity in negotiations.

**Iran dismisses U.S.-Israeli "fantasies and lies"; warns reciprocal response to "terrorist acts"; ex-foreign minister seriously injured; Trump claims Iran incapable of nuclear weapons**

Iran's president emphasized national independence and security. The foreign ministry stated the supreme leader is in good health but postponed public appearances due to the war, with full readiness to counter any attack. The military warned of strikes on U.S. intelligence firms, reiterating threats against 18 U.S. companies. Iran claimed to have shot down 150 U.S.-Israeli drones, with the ultimate goal of counterattacks including U.S. troop withdrawal from the Middle East. Israel faced its largest missile attack since the conflict began. Trump planned a national address Wednesday night for an "important update" on Iran. He reportedly ordered the military to submit plans to seize Iran's nuclear materials and was said to have sent a message to Iran via Vance—satisfaction with Hormuz reopening would boost markets by 0.2%. Analysts noted February tax refunds boosted low-income consumption, but high-income households remained the main spending force.

**Energy prices drive European CPI to fastest growth in four years**

Though euro zone core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.3% in March and services inflation cooled, headline inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year—the highest since January 2025. Month-on-month, it surged 1.9%, the largest increase since 2022. Multiple central bank officials struck hawkish tones, not ruling out early rate hikes.

**$600 million OpenAI stake unsold in secondary market; Anthropic shares in hot demand**

Next Round Capital's founder said about six institutional investors contacted his firm in recent weeks seeking to sell roughly $600 million worth of OpenAI shares. Last year, such stakes would have sold out within days—now they find no buyers. OpenAI's current market bid valuation stands at ~$765 billion, a ~10% discount from the previous $850 billion. Anthropic's bid valuation is ~$600 billion, over 50% above its last funding round. OpenAI stated it does not endorse or participate in such transactions.

**Global investors push large model firms to "price-to-dream" valuations**

OpenAI has secured one of Silicon Valley's largest-ever funding rounds. By price-to-earnings metrics, the firm is unprofitable and unlikely to turn a profit for years—this is the "price-to-dream" ratio: investors betting on the belief AI will transform everything. Revenues are surging, losses remain steep, short sellers are circling, and IPOs plus lock-up expirations loom. The narrative-driven capital frenzy has reached a critical juncture.

**SpaceX secretly files for U.S. IPO**

Media reports citing insiders state SpaceX has confidentially submitted a draft IPO registration to the SEC, requesting anonymity. The firm told potential investors executive roadshows would be held this month. It has hired Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, with additional banks brought on board.

**U.S. rocket for crewed lunar mission launches**

On the evening of April 1 local time, NASA's next-generation Space Launch System (SLS) rocket lifted off from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying out the Artemis II crewed lunar orbital mission—the first U.S. crewed flight to the moon since 1972.

**"Short King" Muddy Waters shifts to credit bonds; CEO bets AI will trigger mass layoffs and default wave**

Muddy Waters Capital founder Carson Block argues AI will cause mass unemployment, high joblessness and economic weakness, eroding corporate revenues and debt-servicing capacity—ultimately widening credit spreads and sparking defaults. He also notes passive investment is oversized in current markets, with corporate bond ETF liquidity far exceeding underlying bonds, which will amplify volatility when shocks hit.

## Selected Research Reports

**Citadel star analyst: To understand the Iran war, "follow the military, not Twitter"**

Citadel Securities analyst Shah warned the Middle East war is not a one-time shock but a persistent crisis that will reshape global growth and inflation trajectories. The conflict has shifted from an inflation shock to growth risks, with stagflation looming. AI faces unique vulnerabilities due to heavy energy dependence, while bonds are poised to regain hedge value. His advice: "Follow the military, not Twitter."

**What does Trump's "hands-off" Hormuz stance mean for oil prices?**

Trump signaled willingness to end the war with the strait largely closed, shifting responsibility for reopening to allies. Deutsche Bank warned actual shipping data shows no meaningful improvement—if the blockade lasts through November, Brent crude could average $177/bbl. Multiple obstacles—U.S. minesweepers unavailable, Houthi potential intervention, IEA reserves lasting only one month—cloud the reopening timeline.

**Super bull Tom Lee: U.S. stocks typically bottom early in wars; current correction near end**

Wall Street's prominent bull, Fundstrat founder Tom Lee, noted the S&P 500 usually bottoms within the first 10% of a war's duration. Inflation-adjusted oil prices remain below the 21st-century average, limiting economic impact on the U.S. Combined with extremely cautious market positioning, he believes 90–95% of the current correction is complete.

**SemiAnalysis deep dive: Full Blackwell architecture details, Nvidia's never-before-revealed secrets**

SemiAnalysis' first-ever dissection of Nvidia's Blackwell architecture shows tensor core and memory bandwidth approach theoretical peaks under AI workloads, but performance depends heavily on instruction shapes and software tuning. 2SM MMA achieves near-perfect scaling, yet SMEM bandwidth and ~300-cycle cross-die latency form key bottlenecks. The study reveals Blackwell performance depends not on hardware limits but scheduling and optimization capabilities.

# Domestic Companies/Industries

### Zhipu AI

Zhipu AI released its first financial report, with CEO Zhang Peng's latest statement: Redefining the "first principles" of AGI commercialization—**the upper limit of intelligence determines pricing power**. Zhipu's first fiscal report posted revenue of **724 million yuan**, ranking first in China and breaking the industry's loss-making curse.

CEO Zhang Peng emphasized the first principle of AGI business: **"The upper limit of intelligence determines pricing power."** Zhipu refused to engage in price wars, raised prices against the trend while seeing a surge in usage volume, fully activating the MaaS flywheel. It also pioneered the concept of **Token Architect Capability (TAC)**, leading the large model industry back to the right commercial path of value creation through technology.

**Wall Street's take on Zhipu's earnings**: Explosive ARR is the biggest surprise; simultaneous rise in Token volume and price signifies substantive pricing power. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) of Zhipu's open platform API reached **1.7 billion yuan**, an increase of approximately 60 times compared to 12 months ago. JPMorgan believes that Token prices on Zhipu's API platform have risen **83%** year-to-date while demand continues to accelerate—simultaneous volume and price growth is extremely rare amid the fierce domestic large model price war, directly confirming Zhipu's substantive pricing power in high-value scenarios such as programming and agents.

### PCB & Glass Fiber

NVIDIA sparks new industry demand; leading companies launch new round of capacity expansion; key materials to raise prices starting Wednesday.

The AI computing power boom detonates the PCB industry chain! Shenghong Technology, Hushi Electronics, and Pengding Holdings have invested over **20 billion yuan** combined in capacity expansion. NVIDIA's Rubin architecture changes further drive interconnect demand.

Upstream raw materials are in acute shortage—Mitsubishi Gas Chemical raised CCL prices by **30%**; electronic fabric supply-demand gap may widen to **10.6%** by 2027; high-frequency copper foil prices also continue upward. The data center PCB market may reach **$23 billion** by 2030—this hardware arms race is far from over.

### Innovative Drugs

Innovative drugs stage comeback after six months; leaders enter intensive harvest period—has the profit inflection point arrived?

The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index surged **11%** in the past week. Brokerages believe the sector is in a phase of **"performance realization, valuation repair, and conference catalysis."** Multiple biopharmaceutical companies achieved historic profitability, improving fundamentals.

In Q1 2026, total value of China's innovative drug out-licensing reached nearly **$57 billion**, exceeding the full-year 2024 level. Upcoming AACR and ASCO annual meetings with intensive clinical data disclosures are expected to provide further catalysts.

### March EV Delivery Report

BYD maintains top spot; overseas sales up 65%; NIO surges 136% YoY; XPeng falls behind.

March delivery data for Chinese NEV makers shows clear "strong get stronger" pattern:

- **BYD**: 300,200 units (1st), overseas sales +65% YoY

- **Geely NEV**: 127,000 units

- **Li Auto**: 41,000 units

- **NIO**: 35,000 units (+136% YoY)

- **Zeekr**: 29,000 units

- **XPeng**: 27,000 units

# Overseas Macro

### Federal Reserve

**St. Louis Fed President Musalem**: Current rate levels may be maintained for "some time"; Fed ready for "two-way rate adjustments."

Alberto Musalem stated Wednesday that current rates may remain appropriate for a considerable period, but he would support adjusting policy rates in either direction if economic conditions warrant. He warned that risks are rising on both labor market and inflation fronts. Markets currently price in unchanged rates for the full year.

### Global Central Banks Sell Treasuries

Global central banks have sold **$90 billion** in U.S. Treasuries since the Iran war began. Foreign central banks have sold U.S. Treasuries for five consecutive weeks, totaling over $90 billion, pushing holdings to the lowest since 2012.

Turkey led the selling, followed by Thailand and India, as countries rushed to liquidate dollar reserves to fund FX intervention, energy imports, and defense spending. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley data shows foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries has fallen to **32.4%**, the lowest since 1997.

### Bank of England AI Warning

**Bank of England**: AI deployment could spiral out of control, triggering systemic shocks in private credit markets.

The BoE warned about AI's potential threats to financial stability, noting rapid AI adoption by financial institutions could evolve into systemic risk. This risk has already materialized in private credit, with recent redemption waves partially attributed to investor concerns about AI disruption.

AI-related risks could rise rapidly, spreading from payments and financial markets to private credit, exacerbating refinancing difficulties.

### South Korea Exports

**South Korea March exports surge 48% amid Iran war; semiconductors the core driver**.

Despite energy and logistics crises from the Iran conflict, South Korea's March exports jumped **48.3% YoY** to surpass $80 billion for the first time. Driven by the global AI boom, semiconductor exports surged **151.4% YoY** to $32.83 billion, breaking $30 billion for the first time in history.

However, Middle East conflict caused South Korea's exports to the region to plummet.

### Memory Chips

**DRAM**: After nearly a year of continuous gains, DRAM price rally stalled in March as memory and PC makers signed supply contracts and locked in short-term prices. However, industry experts expect DRAM prices to resume rising in Q2.

South Korean media reports that Samsung and SK Hynix—world's two largest DRAM makers—recently notified customers of plans to significantly raise DRAM prices in Q2.

**Comment**: According to TrendForce's latest memory price survey, in Q2 2026, DRAM manufacturers are actively shifting production to HBM and server applications while adopting "catch-up" pricing to narrow gaps across product lines. Despite shipment downside risks in end markets, overall commodity DRAM contract prices are estimated to rise **58-63% QoQ**.

NAND Flash market remains driven by AI and data center demand, with full product line price increases intact. Q2 contract prices expected to rise **70-75% QoQ**. Market participants expect NAND prices to stay firm. As manufacturers prioritize high-margin AI server products, supply imbalances for legacy nodes will persist.

### Probiotics

**State Administration for Market Regulation**: Publishes draft national standard for *Health Food Materials – Probiotics* for public comment.

The standard fills China's gap in probiotic quality standards for health foods, regulating industry development from the source and safeguarding quality safety. It systematically specifies terminology, classification, technical requirements, and strict rules for production, excipients, labeling, transport, and storage.

**Comment**: The standard will drive the probiotic industry toward standardized and scientific development. With rising health consciousness, preventive healthcare becomes mainstream. Consumer use cases expand from daily health to travel stress, gut microbiome restoration, and workplace needs. Technological breakthroughs will broaden applications from dietary supplements to hot beverages, snacks, and protein powders.

### 6G

**Global 6G development accelerates in 2026** with landmark progress in standardization, prototype development, technological breakthroughs, and industrial planning.

3GPP has started drafting 6G standards, entering a critical规范-setting window. ITU has released reports defining key performance requirements. Global consensus reached: **standards freeze in 2029, commercial deployment in 2030**.

Recent密集 prototype launches by global companies and research institutes cover terahertz communication, space-air-ground integration, and communication-sensing-computing-AI fusion. These mark 6G's transition from R&D to hardware productization.

**Comment**: 6G breakthroughs involve multi-core technological collaboration. Terahertz communication, space-air-ground integration, and communication-sensing-computing-AI fusion are the three signature directions.

Communication-sensing-computing-AI fusion enables 6G to empower industries and support emerging scenarios like low-altitude economy and autonomous driving. Space-air-ground integration is key to "universal connectivity," advancing from "interconnected things" to "intelligently connected things".

China Academy of Information and Communications Technology forecasts **global 6G market to exceed $1.2 trillion by 2030**.

# Today's Key News Preview

- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (last week)

- U.S. Trade Balance (February)

- U.S. Factory Orders & Durable Goods Orders (February)

- White House: Trump to address Iran issue

- French President Macron's state visit to South Korea

- Dallas Fed President Logan's speech

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### Risk Disclaimer

Markets are risky, investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor does it consider specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investment decisions are at your own risk.