The United States and Iran agree to continue negotiations, Pakistan calls for a 45-day extension of the ceasefire, and Saudi Arabia pressures the United States to abandon the blockade of the Strait.

Signs of easing have emerged in the deadlock of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with both sides explicitly agreeing to continue consultations, but differences remain on key details such as the venue and agenda of the talks. Meanwhile, Pakistan is actively playing a mediating role, calling for a 45-day extension of the current temporary ceasefire to gain time for subsequent negotiations; Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is secretly pressuring the United States, warning that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may trigger a chain of retaliation and endanger its own energy export security. Amid intertwined diplomatic signals, international oil prices fell nearly 2% in response, and the Middle East situation is at a critical game point between peace negotiations and conflict escalation.

On April 14, according to relevant diplomatic sources, after prior mediation, the US and Iran have reached a consensus to continue negotiations, but no unified opinion has been formed on the specific arrangements for the next round of talks. Among them, Iran prefers Islamabad as the venue for the talks, believing that the location is geographically adjacent, familiar to both sides, and expressing recognition for Pakistan's role as a mediator; the US, however, is still evaluating other alternative locations, and differences between the two sides on this issue need further coordination.

Pakistani officials involved in the mediation stated that Pakistan has proposed holding the second round of formal talks in Islamabad before the end of the current ceasefire period, but the implementation of this proposal depends on whether all parties request a venue adjustment. Relevant officials emphasized that although no substantive agreement was reached in the first round of negotiations, this does not mean the interruption of the diplomatic process, but an important part of the ongoing advancement, and all parties still need to maintain patience and flexibility.

As a mediator, Pakistan is actively promoting the extension of the ceasefire period. It is reported that since the end of the first round of US-Iran negotiations last weekend, Pakistan has held intensive calls with various parties, striving to build consensus and calling for a 45-day extension of the temporary ceasefire. Its core goal is to create favorable conditions for the two sides to resume technical contacts and advance the second round of formal negotiations by extending the ceasefire. Currently, intermediaries are assisting the US and Iran in exchanging information on pending issues and making every effort to promote the consensus on the ceasefire extension.

US Vice President Vance stated in an interview with the media on April 13 that certain progress has been made in the US-Iran negotiations, but the key to advancing the current negotiations lies with Iran, and "the ball is in Iran's court". Vance admitted that during the previous talks held in Pakistan, the two sides had some fruitful exchanges, and Iran also showed a certain degree of flexibility, but this flexibility has not yet met the requirements for reaching an agreement. Regarding the specific time of the next round of talks, Vance said that this issue is more appropriately consulted directly with Iran.

Iran has also released positive signals for negotiations. When the Iranian president held a call with the French president recently, he clearly stated that Iran is willing to continue negotiations with the US within the framework of international law and will strictly abide by the current ceasefire terms. At the same time, Iran also pointed out that the previous excessive demands of the US were an important reason hindering the two sides from reaching an agreement.

Notably, Saudi Arabia is secretly putting pressure on the United States to abandon its plan to block the Strait of Hormuz and return to the negotiating table. Saudi Arabia's core concern is that the US move to block the Strait of Hormuz may trigger retaliatory actions by Iran, thereby threatening the security of other key shipping lanes.

According to Gulf state officials, Saudi Arabia has clearly warned the US that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Iran may take countermeasures to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a Red Sea waterway crucial for Saudi Arabia's remaining oil exports. Although shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is currently hindered, Saudi Arabia has transported crude oil to Red Sea ports through desert pipelines, restoring oil exports to about 7 million barrels per day, the pre-war level. However, since large areas of the coastline near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are controlled by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, once this waterway is blocked, Saudi oil exports will face a direct impact.

It is reported that Saudi Arabia has currently obtained relevant commitments from the Houthi rebels, who will not attack Saudi ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. But relevant sources indicate that if Iran exerts further pressure, the Houthi rebels may increase their involvement in the Iranian conflict and may even start charging fees for ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which will further exacerbate regional shipping risks.

Affected by multiple positive signals such as the continuation of US-Iran negotiations and Saudi pressure, international oil prices fell significantly. During Tuesday's trading session, the May WTI crude oil futures fell nearly 2% to around $97 per barrel; the June Brent crude oil futures fell 1% to $98.46 per barrel. Currently, investors are closely weighing the dual possibilities of the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and peace negotiations, and the subsequent direction of the Middle East situation remains full of uncertainties.

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