U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Hit Historical Peaks for the Same Period; Energy Secretary Warns High Levels May Persist for Weeks

On Monday this week, the average national retail price of gasoline in the United States climbed to $4.12 per gallon, and the average retail price of diesel reached $5.65 per gallon, both setting new historical records for the same period. The U.S. Energy Secretary clearly stated that the current high gasoline prices are expected to remain for several weeks. Industry analysts warn that if energy prices remain at the current level for a long time, they will further squeeze the space for consumers' disposable income, thereby restricting the overall U.S. economic recovery process.

Affected by the energy market fluctuations triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, U.S. refined oil retail prices have continued to rise and have now climbed to historical peaks for the same period. Inflationary pressure has further increased accordingly, bringing considerable challenges to the upcoming peak summer travel season.

According to the latest monitoring data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average national gasoline price in the United States stabilized at $4.12 per gallon on Monday this week, exceeding the same-period record of $4.07 per gallon set in 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused oil prices to soar; the average diesel price reached $5.65 per gallon, more than 60 cents higher than the historical high for the same period in 2022, representing a significant increase.

Looking back to the end of February this year, after the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, U.S. gasoline prices began a continuous upward trend, with a cumulative increase of more than $1.10 per gallon so far. Although the market has held optimistic expectations for the ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran recently, leading to a slight correction in retail oil prices, they still remain in a high operating state overall.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday this week that gasoline prices are likely to remain high "in the coming weeks" and it is difficult to see a significant decline in the short term.

The market forecast released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) last week also confirms this judgment: assuming the U.S.-Iran conflict ends in April, the average national retail gasoline price in the second quarter of this year is expected to reach $4.16 per gallon, and will gradually decline thereafter, with the average price expected to drop to $3.55 per gallon in the fourth quarter. This means that even if the regional situation eases, consumers will still have to bear higher fuel expenses than the same period in previous years for a relatively long period of time in the future.

Compared with gasoline, the impact of high diesel prices on the economy is more extensive. As a core fuel in the fields of freight logistics, agricultural production and industrial manufacturing, the increase in diesel costs has directly driven up the prices of various terminal consumer goods such as food and logistics, and the chain reaction caused by it has been reflected in recent inflation data.

In addition, the continuous rise in jet fuel prices has gradually been passed on to air ticket pricing, forming a superimposed effect with high diesel prices, further exacerbating the cost pressure during the peak summer travel season. Analysts emphasized again that if energy prices remain high, they will further squeeze consumers' disposable income and form an obvious resistance to U.S. economic recovery.

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