Middle Eastern and European officials believe that it will take half a year to reach an Iraqi peace agreement, and all parties call for extending the ceasefire buffer first

The complexity of the new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations far exceeds the global market’s prior expectations. Compared with reaching a final peace agreement, the more pressing core issues at hand are whether the temporary ceasefire can be smoothly extended and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to shipping.

According to reports on April 17, multiple Gulf and European officials familiar with the private consultations revealed that reaching a formal peace agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to take at least six months. Leaders of various parties are currently privately urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the existing ceasefire period to match this negotiation timeline. Following the news, the international energy market reacted immediately, with Brent crude oil’s daily gain rapidly widening to around 4.5%, breaking through the $99 per barrel mark—highlighting the market’s acute sensitivity to regional developments.

As the relevant consultations remain private, all these officials spoke on condition of anonymity. They also warned that as a critical global energy transport corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, if not reopened by the end of May, would severely disrupt global food supply chains and potentially trigger a new round of food crisis. Furthermore, a protracted conflict between the U.S. and Iran would drive international energy prices even higher, adding extra pressure on the global economic recovery.

At present, the U.S. and Iran are weighing an extension of the ceasefire, with an initial inclination to prolong it by two more weeks. The current temporary ceasefire is set to expire late at night Eastern Time next Tuesday (April 21). Industry analysts note that extending the ceasefire would undoubtedly buy both sides more negotiating buffer time, yet there remains significant uncertainty—with no firm guarantees—over whether the ceasefire can be renewed, let alone whether a formal peace agreement can eventually be reached.

Earlier U.S. media reports claimed that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire, but this has not been officially confirmed by either Washington or Tehran. Neither side has issued a clear statement regarding the ceasefire extension.

## The Strait of Hormuz: The Most Urgent Economic Flashpoint

Since the outbreak of U.S.-Iran hostilities, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, with vessel traffic severely restricted. As the core export hub for Gulf countries’ oil, liquefied natural gas, aluminum products, fertilizers and other bulk commodities, the closure has dealt a heavy direct blow to Gulf economies—blocking exports, slashing foreign exchange earnings, and intensifying downward economic pressure across the region.

Responding to media inquiries, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited its April 8 official statement, insisting the Strait of Hormuz must be “reopened unconditionally.” It also emphasized the need for “comprehensive and sustained action to address all threats posed by Iran, including its nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, drones, military expansion, and affiliated proxy militias and terrorist organizations.”

For its part, Iran has explicitly asserted its claim to control over the Strait of Hormuz—a position directly at odds with Gulf states’ demand for unconditional reopening, making it one of the most intractable core disagreements in the negotiations, widely regarded as the “toughest nut to crack” in the talks.

Notably, while international oil prices have retreated somewhat since the April 8 temporary ceasefire, they remain more than 35% higher overall than before the conflict erupted. The tightness in the energy market has not been fundamentally alleviated.

## Nuclear Weapons and Missiles: Core Negotiation Divides

Gulf state officials have made clear they believe Iran is still secretly pursuing nuclear weapons—a judgment unchanged by the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. Accordingly, they stress any peace agreement must include explicit clauses banning Iran from uranium enrichment activities and prohibiting it from possessing long-range ballistic missiles, to eliminate regional security risks at their root.

Rob Macaire, former British Ambassador to Iran and member of the Chatham House Council, noted that a viable solution exists on the nuclear issue: Iran could commit to allowing international inspectors access and halting uranium enrichment for a fixed period. In return, the U.S. might consider unfreezing part of Iran’s blocked assets and easing restrictions on Iranian oil trade, achieving initial concessions and balance between the two sides.

But Macaire also pointed out that compared with the nuclear issue, the question of who controls the Strait of Hormuz—and Iran’s repeated demands for security guarantees—are far more complex topics where consensus will be harder to reach, requiring greater patience and compromise from both sides.

## Fragile Ceasefire, Negotiations Fraught with Uncertainty

Macaire stated bluntly: “A formal U.S.-Iran peace agreement will not be reached in the short term. President Trump’s earlier optimism stems essentially from his awareness of the massive impact regional developments have on global markets, and his eagerness to stabilize market expectations through diplomatic breakthroughs.”

He further analyzed: “The key to the current negotiations is not just whether an agreement can be finalized, but more importantly whether both sides can take enough constructive steps in the coming buffer period to prevent the conflict from reigniting. Theoretically, this goal is achievable—but hardline factions within Iran are itching to resume missile launches, potentially sabotaging the ceasefire. The U.S.-Iran game remains deadlocked, and risks cannot be ignored.”

Beyond nuclear and missile issues, the negotiations face multiple stubborn obstacles: the scope of U.S. sanctions relief on Iran, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, are all critical unresolved variables affecting the process. However, Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had reached a 10-day temporary ceasefire. Some international officials believe if this ceasefire holds, it could create favorable conditions to advance U.S.-Iran talks and ease regional tensions.

While Gulf states broadly oppose a resumption of U.S.-Iran hostilities and explicitly back Washington’s diplomatic approach to resolving differences with Tehran, a clear gap remains between the current complexity of negotiations and the global market’s earlier optimistic expectations. The path ahead remains rife with uncertainty.

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