Morning News

# Source: Wall Street CN

## Market Overview

U.S. stocks plunged more than 2% in early trading after Trump vowed to take "all necessary measures" on the Iran issue. In the afternoon, news that the U.S. would provide insurance and naval escorts for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz significantly eased market concerns. Crude oil, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields retreated sharply from highs, narrowing the losses of U.S. stock indices.

The Nasdaq still fell more than 1%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The VIX fear index surged intraday to its highest level since April 2025 before falling sharply.

Crude oil soared more than 9% at one point, with gains narrowing significantly in late trading. WTI rose 5% to above $74, while Brent hovered around $81. European natural gas also surged and then retreated.

U.S. Treasury yields spiked in early trading alongside oil prices, with gains narrowing in the afternoon. The 10-year yield ultimately rose 2.8 basis points, and the 2-year yield climbed nearly 4 basis points. The U.S. dollar surged sharply in early trading, hitting a new high since late November last year, before giving up some gains in the afternoon, rising about 0.6% for the day.

Gold prices plummeted more than 4%, briefly falling below $5,000 intraday. Silver plunged more than 12% at one point. Bitcoin fell more than 1%.

During Asian trading hours, the Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 1%. China's "Big Three Oil Companies" collectively hit the daily limit again. The semiconductor industry chain slumped. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped more than 2%, while large model stock MINIMAX bucked the trend and rose more than 9%.

## Key News

### China

- The agenda for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) has been released, with a 7-day session.

- China asks Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz? Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds.

### Overseas

- Trump orders two-pronged measures to secure shipping in the Gulf region; Iran warns vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump meets Merz to "pressure" Europe, threatens Spain with trade cuts, denies being dragged into war by Israel, and predicts oil prices will plummet. Iran claims it hit U.S. THAAD system targets, with Iranian nuclear facilities damaged. U.S. Secretary of State says strikes will escalate. Both the U.S. and Iran vow "all necessary measures." Trump boasts of "unlimited" ammunition and says he will respond soon to the embassy attack.

- Qatar continues to shut down the world's largest LNG plant; European natural gas surges another 32%. Iraq's daily production cuts may reach 3 million barrels. London aluminum jumps; Qatar Energy expands production halts, with urea, methanol, and aluminum operations fully suspended. The U.S. says it has contingency plans to "mitigate oil price hikes" and will roll out measures in phases starting Tuesday. Reports: IEA plans rare intervention to stabilize markets, with 1 billion barrels of oil reserves on standby.

- Renewed U.S.-Iran conflict reignites "inflation concerns"; probability of a second Fed rate cut this year falls to 50%. New York Fed President Williams: Further rate cuts depend on inflation progress; tariff impacts are a "one-time shock." Minneapolis Fed President (voting member): War clouds hang over economic outlook; Fed can stay on hold.

- Claude experiences "outage" amid "unprecedented" demand. Anthropic says free users have grown 60% since January, and paid users have doubled since October. ChatGPT uninstalls surge 295%. OpenAI admits signing a contract with the U.S. military was "too hasty" and is revising it urgently.

- OpenAI launches GPT-5.3 Instant, a faster, more accurate, and more judgmental model, saying GPT 5.4 will arrive faster than expected.

- Google launches Gemini 3, the fastest and most cost-effective model, with response time improved by 2.5x and output speed boosted by 45%.

- Apple updates entire MacBook lineup: Pro models feature M5 Max with 4x AI computing power; Air models debut M5 chip with 512GB storage as standard.

## Market Closing

### U.S. & European Equities

- S&P 500: -0.94% to 6,816.63

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.83% to 48,501.27

- Nasdaq Composite: -1.02% to 22,516.69

- European STOXX 600: -3.08% to 604.44

### A-Shares

- Shanghai Composite Index: -1.43% to 4,122.68

- Shenzhen Component Index: -3.07% to 14,022.39

- ChiNext Index: -2.57% to 3,209.48

### Bond Market

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +2.30 bps to 4.0575%

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: +3.29 bps to 3.4999%

### Commodities

- WTI Crude Oil (April): +4.67% to $74.56/barrel (up 14.34% since Feb 26 close, 3 consecutive trading days)

- Brent Crude Oil (May): +4.71% to $81.40/barrel

- COMEX Gold: -3.98% to $5,099.40/ounce

- COMEX Silver: -7.18% to $82.470/ounce

# Detailed News Highlights

## Global Headlines

### China

- **Agenda Released for the CPPCC Session, Lasting 7 Days**. According to CCTV News, the main agenda of the session is: to hear and deliberate on the work report of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and the report on the handling of proposals; to attend the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress as non-voting participants, to hear and discuss the Government Work Report and other relevant reports, and to discuss the draft Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.

- **China Urges Iran Not to Block the Strait of Hormuz? MOFA Responds**. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning pointed out that China urges all parties to immediately cease military actions, avoid the escalation of tensions, safeguard the safety of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent greater impacts on the global economy.

### Overseas

- **Trump Orders Two-Pronged Measures to Secure Gulf Shipping; Iran Warns Vessels Against Transiting the Strait of Hormuz**. Trump stated that he has instructed relevant companies to provide insurance for maritime trade passing through the Gulf region, and that U.S. military forces will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, without specifying the operational details. The gain of WTI crude oil once narrowed to less than 0.7%. The Iranian military warned that vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz may face risks from missiles or uncontrolled drones. Analysts commented that if Iran continues to resist, it will take weeks for shipping flows through the strait to fully recover, even with these U.S. guarantees.

- **Trump Meets Merz to "Pressure" Europe, Threatens Spain with Trade Cuts, Denies Being Dragged into War by Israel, Predicts Oil Price Plunge**. Trump warned Iran of greater strikes, claiming that nearly all of Iran's military capabilities have been destroyed; he criticized Spain and the UK for their lack of cooperation in actions against Iran. He said high oil prices will persist for some time, and once U.S. actions against Iran end, oil prices may even fall below pre-action levels. Spain stated that the U.S. must respect bilateral agreements with the EU. Merz said the EU will not accept any framework inferior to existing trade agreements, and that the EU has reached its tolerance threshold on tariffs; the U.S. cannot impose prohibitive trade measures solely against Spain.

- **Iran Claims It Hit U.S. THAAD System Targets; Iranian Nuclear Facilities Damaged; U.S. Secretary of State Says Strikes Will Escalate; Wang Yi Holds Phone Call with Israeli Foreign Minister**. Iran stated that its actions against the U.S. and Israel will be carried out at a deeper level and in a broader scope, launching the 16th wave of strikes from Tuesday night to Wednesday early morning, targeting multiple military sites in central and northern Israel. Iran's UN representative said now is not the time for negotiations. The body of Ayatollah Khamenei will be buried in Mashhad. The election of Iran's new supreme leader is reportedly entering its final stage. Trump said Iran wants to negotiate but it is too late. U.S. Secretary of State stated that the U.S. and Israel will expand the scale and intensity of strikes against Iran in the coming hours and days. The Israeli military said it launched a "massive strike" on Tehran, killing a senior Iranian commander responsible for Lebanon affairs.

- **Both U.S. and Iran Vow "All Necessary Measures"; Trump Boasts of "Unlimited" Ammunition, to Respond Soon to Embassy Attacks**. The Middle East conflict continues to spread. U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been successively attacked by Iranian drones. Israel has simultaneously carried out airstrikes on Tehran and Beirut, with multi-front conflicts escalating sharply. Trump threatened that ammunition is "nearly unlimited" and that the mission will be completed "at all costs"; Iran declared it is prepared for a "long war".

- **Qatar Continues Shutdown of World's Largest LNG Plant; European Natural Gas Surges Another 32%; Goldman Sachs Sharply Raises Gas Price Forecast**. Qatar's LNG export facilities were forced to shut down following an Iranian drone attack. Coupled with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, European natural gas futures have surged over 60% in two days, with a single-day peak rise of 32%. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for European natural gas prices in April 2026 from €36 to €55. A buying spree by Asian buyers has begun, the European summer inventory replenishment logic has collapsed, and the most severe energy shock since 2022 is spreading.

- **Qatar Shutdown + Hormuz Blockade: Will This Natural Gas Crisis Be More Severe Than 2022?** Affected by the U.S.-Iran war, Qatar's LNG production has halted and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, causing Asian natural gas prices to surge over 50% in a single day. The potential supply gap this time reaches 120 billion cubic meters, exceeding the scale of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although current gas prices are still far below the 2022 peak, a prolonged disruption would pose a severe global shock. It is widely believed that the price trend will depend on whether the Iran situation can be resolved within two weeks.

- **London Aluminum Jumps! Qatar Energy Expands Production Halts; Urea, Methanol, and Aluminum Operations Fully Suspended**. Following the shutdown of Qatar Energy's LNG export facilities due to an Iranian drone attack, Qatar Energy announced a full suspension of liquefied natural gas production, as well as production of urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum, and other products. Supply shocks have quickly spread to commodity markets. Coupled with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, markets fear dual constraints on Middle Eastern aluminum exports and raw material imports. Goldman Sachs noted that if disruptions persist for a month, aluminum prices may temporarily surge to $3,600.

- **U.S. to Roll Out "Phased" Measures Starting Tuesday; Says It Has Contingency Plans to "Mitigate Oil Price Hikes"**. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant and Energy Secretary Wright will announce a special plan to stabilize oil prices on Tuesday, with measures to be rolled out in phases.

- **OpenAI Launches GPT-5.3 Instant, Faster, More Accurate, and More Judgmental; Says GPT 5.4 Will Arrive Faster Than Expected**. GPT-5.3 Instant reduces unnecessary refusals and inefficient disclaimers, and optimizes contextual understanding. Compared to the previous generation 5.2 Instant, it filters and synthesizes online information more accurately, with a more natural and focused conversational style. The previous model will continue to be available to paid users for three months and will be discontinued on June 3. OpenAI also released GPT-5.3-Codex and its derivative programming model versions.

- **Google Unveils Gemini 3, the Fastest and Most Cost-Effective Model; Response Time Improves 2.5x, Output Speed Boosts 45%**. Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite is designed for developers' large-scale, high-frequency workloads, with a preview version available to developers starting this Tuesday, featuring built-in "Levels of Thinking". Benchmark tests show that the model's first-answer response time is 2.5x faster than Gemini 2.5 Flash, with output speed increased by 45%. It outperforms competitors like GPT-5 Mini in GPQA Diamond and MMMU Pro tests. Pricing is $0.25 per million input tokens and $1.5 per million output tokens, with a context window of up to 1 million tokens.

- **Apple Updates Entire MacBook Lineup: Pro Models Feature M5 Max with 4x AI Computing Power; Air Models Debut M5 Chip with 512GB Starting Storage**. The MacBook Pro is equipped with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, delivering up to 4x higher AI performance and 30% faster CPU performance than the previous generation. The MacBook Air debuts the M5 chip, with starting storage doubled to 512GB, and adds support for Wi-Fi 7 and Bluetooth 6. Both models run macOS Tahoe and integrate Apple Intelligence, focusing on on-device AI computing capabilities, and will officially ship on March 11.

## Selected Research Reports

- **Investment Paradigm Inflection Point! "New Bond King" Gundlach: Stay Away from Dollar Assets and Private Credit; Gold Bull Market Extends to Entire Commodity Market**. Gundlach warned that the dollar-centric asset pricing system is facing a historic inflection point, and a reversal in foreign net investment in the U.S. will push the dollar into a long-term bear market. AI hype has overdrawn expectations; he recommends a full exit from U.S. stocks, as private credit faces a volatility washout. He remains firmly bullish on gold, stating "I will not sell gold at $5,000; my target price is higher."

- **European Natural Gas Crisis Just Beginning? Morgan Stanley: Current Prices Only Price in 1–2 Weeks of Disruption; If Qatar Shuts Down for Months, Prices Could Double**. Morgan Stanley estimates that in an extreme scenario, if the Ras Laffan shutdown extends to months, the European gas benchmark TTF risks surging to €100, potentially approaching the 2022 squeeze scenario. However, European fundamentals are more robust than in 2022, and Qatar's LNG accounts for only a small share of total European supply. If Middle Eastern disruptions persist, even if Europe shifts to buying in Asia, the supply-demand imbalance will be far less severe than in 2022.

- **"Buy Japan" Positions Being Unwound**. Nomura Securities noted that the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, private credit risks have surfaced, and markets fear deteriorating economic fundamentals. Previously, Japan attracted capital inflows thanks to AI and semiconductor dividends. However, as anxiety shifts to energy shocks and recession risks, Japan's structural weaknesses—high dependence on crude oil imports and extreme sensitivity to cycles—are fully exposed, eroding its safe-haven function. Overseas investors are accelerating the unwinding of "Buy Japan" positions, leading to a pattern of a weaker yen and pressure on Japanese equities.

- **Chip "Top Pick" Nvidia Replaces Memory; Morgan Stanley's Rationale: Stock Has Stagnated for a Long Time, and "2026 Growth Peak" Thesis Has Collapsed**. Nvidia has traded sideways for two quarters, yet Morgan Stanley reaffirms it as the semiconductor "top pick". Market concerns about a 2026 growth peak are contradicted by cloud giants' extreme buying behavior of "three-year lock-in orders with full prepayment". Morgan Stanley views the forward P/E ratio of just 18x as an extremely rare entry window. Regarding market concerns about market share decline, Morgan Stanley believes that with Nvidia's scale approaching "$80 billion per quarter", it is not surprising for peers to grow slightly faster and for Nvidia to cede 1–2 percentage points of market share.

- **"AI-Resources-Military" Trinity for Survival—Global Asset Reassessment Under New Debt Cycle**. Soochow Securities believes the world is entering a new "survival trinity" cycle centered on "AI-Resources-Military". Debt pressure forces technological leaps, technology implementation inevitably consumes and competes for resources, and the struggle for resource sovereignty ultimately pushes security and the military to the forefront. Two major pricing expectation gaps exist in the market: a severe underestimation of the upside potential of geopolitical risk premiums, and a more likely return to a strong dollar path in 2026 as midterm election constraints rise and inflation stabilization demands strengthen.

- **Why Does Gold React Volatilely to Crises? Why Did Gold Plunge Abnormally Amid Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict?** Deutsche Bank's latest report dispels the illusion that "gold always rises in crises": gold's safe-haven premium is highly uncertain and lagged. The real hard logic for going long gold currently lies in its price resilience amid a strong dollar, reflecting demand support independent of the dollar.

# Domestic Macro

Shanghai Securities News: As the **15th Five-Year Plan** kicks off, five key highlights of the upcoming Two Sessions are in focus. First, how economic and social development targets—especially GDP, CPI, and employment—will be set. Second, how macro policies will be more proactive; experts note this year’s policies need to balance expansion and precision. Third, what measures will drive domestic demand expansion; income growth is the keyword for boosting consumption, while initiatives to stabilize investment are expected to gain traction. Fourth, where the focus lies for developing **new quality productive forces**. Fifth, how reforms in key sectors will advance.

# Domestic Companies

### Post-Spring Festival AI Battle Review: Doubao Leads in Traffic, Qianwen Dominates Retention

A Morgan Stanley review of the Spring Festival AI battle shows four major platforms spent over 8 billion yuan to seize the “AI super entrance.” ByteDance’s Doubao topped traffic rankings via Spring Festival Gala marketing, winning the short-term traffic war. Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen holds an edge in retention, but its post-holiday high DAU mainly stems from multiple coupon extensions to March 3; true retention remains to be tested. The report warns that burning money cannot build a moat—success depends on product strength and ecosystem integration.

### Alibaba’s Desktop Agent QoderWork Fully Open: Accessible AI for All

Alibaba’s desktop agent QoderWork is now available for Mac/Windows with no deployment required. Integrating top global models and agent frameworks, it expands Qoder’s agent capabilities from coding to daily work scenarios. Users can complete file organization, data processing, document generation, and more via natural language conversations.

# Overseas Macro

### Bond Market Collapses! Iran Conflict Reignites Inflation Fears, Global Bond Index Sees Biggest Drop Since May

Inflation concerns dominate global fixed-income markets, with government bonds sold off widely from Sydney to Tokyo. The global bond index fell 0.8% on Monday, the largest single-day drop since May. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged 10 basis points. Amid rising geopolitical risks, a new wave of stagflation is sweeping the global economy, with final impacts hinging on the conflict’s duration and spread.

### “Trump Insider Trading” Echoes? 12 Polymarket Accounts Made Accurate Bets Day Before U.S. Strike on Iran

Six hours before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, newly created accounts on the prediction platform placed large, precise bets, sparking suspicions of insider trading. Similar trading patterns have occurred prior to past military operations. U.S. lawmakers call for legislation banning bets on military actions; lawyers note trading on improperly obtained information is illegal.

### Eurozone February CPI Rises 1.9% YoY, Beating Expectations; Iran Risks Boost Energy Prices, Rate-Hike Bets Rise

Eurozone February inflation rebounded to 1.9% YoY, exceeding forecasts; core inflation hit 2.4%, and services inflation 3.4%, above the ECB’s 2% target. Combined with surging European natural gas and crude prices due to Middle East tensions, dual “domestic + imported” inflation pressures have spiked. The ECB’s policy path is now uncertain, with markets pricing a 50% chance of a 25-bp rate hike this year.

### Middle East Tensions Roil “This Year’s Best-Performing Stock Market”: Korean Stocks Plunge Most in 18 Months, U.S.-Listed Korea ETF Tumbles Nearly 15%

From “global strongest” to intraday circuit breakers, South Korea’s Kospi index plummeted over 7% in a single day. The U.S.-listed Korea ETF also crashed, falling nearly 15% intraday before closing down over 10%. Rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict and massive foreign selling triggered profit-taking at highs, with heavyweights like Samsung and SK Hynix dropping around 10%. Risk aversion lifted, the Korean won weakened, while shipping, defense, and energy sectors outperformed.

# Overseas Companies

### Nvidia “Believes in Light,” Invests $4 Billion in Lumentum and Coherent

Nvidia is investing $2 billion each in photonics giants Lumentum and Coherent, locking in multi-billion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. The move targets the core supply chain for co-packaged optics (CPO), aiming to build a solid optical interconnect foundation for next-generation “gigawatt AI factories.” Lumentum closed up nearly 12%, Coherent rose over 15%, and Nvidia gained nearly 3%.

### Paving the Way for New CPO Solutions? Nvidia Bets Big on Optical Interconnect to Secure Supply Chain for Next-Gen AI Architecture

Barclays views this as a play for CPO “supply protection.” The timing is no coincidence—Nvidia “will likely discuss new CPO solutions publicly at the GTC Conference.” Purchase commitments extend to 2030, with funds focused on U.S. domestic expansion and key CPO laser supply for both firms.

### OpenClaw Tops GitHub’s All-Time Star Ranking, Surpassing Linux

The open-source AI agent framework OpenClaw overtook Linux in just 100 days to become GitHub’s most-starred foundational software.

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## 2. Computing Power

According to IT Home, on March 2 local time, during the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, Spain, China Mobile launched its original Scale-Across technology—**GSE-DCI (Global Scheduling Ethernet for AI Data Center Interconnection)**. It also unveiled the world’s first ultra-100T AI computing interconnection router prototype, with a throughput of 115.2 Tbps. This marks a major breakthrough for China in core technologies for cross-AI data center interconnection networks.

**Commentary (China Securities Journal):** Cross-AI data center interconnection networks connect distributed AI computing centers nationwide via high-speed networks, forming a unified, efficiently coordinated computing resource pool. It is the “third pillar of AI computing networks” after Scale-Up (inter-card interconnection) and Scale-Out (inter-server interconnection). As large AI model parameters exceed 100 trillion, single AI centers can no longer meet exponentially growing computing demands. Over 280 domestic AI centers currently suffer severe resource waste, with average GPU utilization below 30% and widespread idle capacity. By building an integrated “computing power + applications” delivery model, cross-AI center interconnection consolidates scattered resources into a unified exascale heterogeneous computing pool, drastically boosting utilization and offering nearly 70 affordable computing service specifications.

## 3. PV Modules

Six ministries, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued guidelines to promote comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules. The guidelines encourage qualified PV industrial parks to build “zero-waste parks,” support collaboration between PV module producers, comprehensive utilization product manufacturers, and end-users, and cultivate green low-carbon industrial benchmarks. They also call for accelerating industry standards for waste PV module recycling, implementing regulatory management as appropriate, publishing compliant enterprise lists, and driving standardized, high-quality development. Local governments are encouraged to support the sector via national industrial resource comprehensive utilization bases.

## 4. CCL (Copper Clad Laminate)

Shanghai Securities News reports that Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) issued a price hike notice on March 2. Surging raw material costs, labor, and transportation have severely eroded profitability for its electronic materials division’s CCL, prepreg, and CRS products. To ensure stable supply, prices will be raised by 30% effective April 1. MGC is a global leader and technology pioneer in high-end packaging substrate materials. Earlier, Japanese semiconductor materials giant Resonac raised CCL and bonding film prices by 30% starting March 1.

**Commentary (Kaiyuan Securities):** CCL manufacturers’ profitability recovered significantly in 2025, with price hikes playing a key role. In Q2 2025, Shengyi Technology’s quarterly gross margin reached 26.85%, while Huazheng New Materials and Nanya New Materials saw substantial year-on-year margin growth, validating price hikes’ positive impact on earnings. Price increases not only boost profits but also may lift sector valuations; focus on the CCL price-up cycle and AI penetration trends.

## 5. Artificial Intelligence

On March 3, the AI Product List released the latest global AI app data. ChatGPT, Doubao, and Qianwen ranked top three by MAU (monthly active users). Qianwen became the world’s third-largest AI app with 203 million MAUs and led global growth at 552%. Domestic AI apps now feature a Duobao-Qianwen duopoly.

**Commentary (Hualong Securities):** ByteDance’s Seed 2.0 multimodal upgrades and Alibaba Qianwen’s leading market usage signal large models are rapidly moving from R&D to large-scale production and complex task execution. Focus on targets with high-performance agent model development capabilities, vertical industry MaaS services, and embodied intelligence application scenarios.

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# Today’s Key News Preview

- The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference opens in Beijing.

- China’s February manufacturing, services, and composite PMI data.

- February services and composite PMI for the U.S., Eurozone, UK, Japan, and India.

- U.S. February ADP employment change.

- Eurozone January PPI.

- Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. to hold new trilateral talks soon.

- Release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book.

- Huawei HarmonyOS Smart Travel Technology Renewal Conference.

- Broadcom earnings release.

- U.S. weekly EIA crude oil inventory change.

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# Risk Warning & Disclaimer

The market is volatile, and investments involve risks. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should assess whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein align with their circumstances. Investment decisions are made at one’s own risk.