Crude oil impact "timetable": Asia is already feeling the pressure, it will be Africa in early April, and Europe's turn in mid-April

# Zhao Ying

Source: Wall Street News

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is triggering an oil shockwave that ripples **from East to West**: Asian inventories are near their limits, and the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency. Africa will come under pressure in early April, followed by Europe in mid‑April. Macquarie warns that there is a **40% probability** the conflict will persist through June. If this scenario materializes, oil prices could surge past $200 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline could spike to $7 per gallon.

The global oil supply is facing a shockwave that rolls sequentially from East to West, with the timing of the impact determined by shipping times.

In a research note dated March 26, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will create a **sequential supply shock** for the world—starting in Asia, moving through Africa, reaching Europe, and finally impacting the U.S., with most regions facing concentrated pressure in April.

The global oil system is shifting from a **flow shock** to an **inventory‑depletion problem**, where **timing**, rather than just supply volumes, has become the core variable driving market impact. Brent crude has risen **49%** this month, closing at $108.01 per barrel on Thursday.

Meanwhile, after Thursday’s market close, Trump announced an extension of the pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure until **April 6**. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media on Thursday, March 26, stating that airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities would be delayed by another 10 days, until 8 p.m. ET on April 6.

Macquarie commodity strategists wrote in a client report that the market “still expects Trump to declare victory soon.” However, they also assigned a roughly **40% probability** to a scenario in which the conflict drags on through June, potentially pushing oil prices to $200 per barrel and U.S. retail gasoline prices to about $7 per gallon.

## Asia Bears the Brunt, Inventory Buffers Near Breaking Point

JPMorgan analysts note that Asia’s heavy dependence on Persian Gulf crude and petroleum products means it is already “feeling the pressure”—shipments dispatched before the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have largely been exhausted. With a shipping time of 10–20 days from the Persian Gulf to Asia, India is affected first, followed by Northeast Asia.

The intensity of the shock is projected to rise rapidly over time. JPMorgan estimates that Southeast Asia’s oil demand loss will be about **300,000 barrels per day (bpd)** in April. If inventory releases are limited to national boundaries, the loss could quickly exceed **2 million bpd** in May and approach **3 million bpd** in June.

The Philippine government declared a national energy emergency this week, citing an “imminent danger” to its energy supply from the Middle East conflict.

## Africa in Early April, Europe in Mid‑April; U.S. Faces Limited Direct Shortage Risk

Per JPMorgan’s timeline, Africa will be the next region hit, with impacts expected to emerge in early April. If inland inventories are low, Africa’s oil demand loss could reach as much as **250,000 bpd** in April.

Europe is forecast to feel the impact in mid‑April, but JPMorgan analysts note that Europe’s pressure “will stem more from rising costs and competition with Asia than from direct physical shortages.”

Due to longer shipping times, most oil cargoes are expected to stop arriving in the U.S. around April 15. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that, thanks to its massive domestic crude production capacity, the U.S. is unlikely to face immediate physical shortages in the near term.

The U.S. impact will be felt primarily through **price increases** and **dislocations in the refined product markets**. The U.S. benchmark crude has risen **41%** this month but remains about $10 cheaper than the global benchmark, Brent.

Macquarie strategists raised their year‑end Brent crude forecast to **$89 per barrel** and interpreted the Brent futures curve—falling from around $110 to the $80 range—as the market pricing in a **short‑term resolution** to the conflict.

Nevertheless, the firm warns that the probability of the conflict lasting through June is about **40%**. Should this scenario come to pass, the extreme outcomes of oil hitting $200 per barrel and U.S. gasoline reaching $7 per gallon would no longer be theoretical, but would deliver a **material shock** to global inflation expectations and consumer confidence.

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