Posted 11 minutes after the close! U.S. stocks suffered

# Ye Zhen

Source: Wall Street News

Eleven minutes after U.S. stocks posted their largest single‑day drop in months, President Trump announced a 10‑day extension of the deadline for strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. The U.S. Dollar Index surged in after‑hours trading, while crude oil prices plunged sharply. Wall Street is now mapping out Trump’s “TACO Moment” pattern: oil prices approaching $95–100 per barrel and the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield hitting 4.5% appear to be the two invisible red lines that prompt the White House to shift toward de‑escalation.

As U.S. equities suffered their most brutal sell‑off in months amid fears of an escalating Middle East conflict, President Trump announced just 11 minutes after Thursday’s market close that he would extend the deadline for strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days, creating more room for ceasefire negotiations.

According to Xinhua News Agency and CCTV, Trump posted on social media on Thursday, March 26, stating that at the request of the Iranian government, airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities would be delayed by another 10 days, until 8 p.m. ET on April 6.

As reported by CCTV, Trump emphasized that bilateral negotiations are underway and “progressing very well,” despite false and contradictory reports from fake news media and other sources.

Financial markets reacted swiftly to the latest announcement. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its after‑hours gains sharply, briefly climbing above the 100.00 level for the first time in three days. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil prices, which had surged sharply during the session, plunged in short‑term trading, exacerbating intraday volatility.

Prior to this, as traders grew increasingly impatient with Trump’s mixed signals on Iran and soaring oil prices stoked intense inflation fears, Wall Street had just endured its most turbulent trading day since the outbreak of the Middle East crisis, with both stocks and bonds under heavy pressure.

## Inflation Fears Hammer Stocks and Bonds

Before Trump’s post‑market announcement, all three major U.S. stock indices closed sharply lower on Thursday. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 1.7%, marking its largest single‑day decline since January 20 and dropping to a six‑month low. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.4%, falling more than 10% from its late‑October high and entering a “technical correction” zone.

The bond market also suffered a severe rout. By late New York trading on Thursday, the yield on the benchmark 10‑year U.S. Treasury note rose 7.95 basis points to 4.4117%. The more rate‑sensitive 2‑year Treasury yield jumped 10.05 basis points to 3.9858%, having surged more than 0.6 percentage points over the past month—its worst performance since September 2022. This week, the U.S. government held three consecutive Treasury auctions totaling $183 billion, all of which saw weak demand, with bid yields coming in above market levels, underscoring investor fatigue.

Disrupted crude oil supplies due to the Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude up 5.7% on Thursday to $108.01 per barrel, its largest single‑day gain since March 11. U.S. WTI crude climbed 4.6% to $94.48. The surge in oil prices prompted investors to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path: markets not only abandoned bets on rate cuts this year but also began pricing in rate hikes. The OECD warned on Thursday that the Middle East crisis would drive U.S. inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest among G7 nations.

## The “Invisible Ceilings” of Crude Oil and U.S. Treasuries

Amid volatile oil prices, Wall Street is attempting to identify patterns in the Trump administration’s policy swings.

Many observers have noted that whenever energy prices or borrowing costs hit specific thresholds, the White House’s rhetoric shifts toward de‑escalation—what has become known as Trump’s “TACO Moment” (an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”).

As Wall Street News previously reported, veteran energy traders have observed that whenever U.S. crude oil prices approach $95–100 per barrel, the White House’s de‑escalatory rhetoric intensifies noticeably, and market expectations for government intervention rise. Jorge Montepeque, an oil market analyst at Onyx Capital Group, noted that gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon are politically toxic, and Trump is clearly concerned about high oil prices.

Treasury yields represent another de‑escalation trigger. Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, stated that Trump has become extremely sensitive to Treasury yields during his second term. “Whenever the 10‑year Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, the government gets really nervous—and that’s usually when they take action.” To this end, Maximilian Uleer, head of cross‑asset strategy at Deutsche Bank, has constructed a “stress index” that combines indicators such as inflation expectations and Treasury yields to predict turning points in White House strategy.

## Extreme Uncertainty Amid Intertwined Battle and Negotiations

This marks the second time Trump has extended the deadline for strikes on Iranian facilities since first issuing the threat on March 21. Earlier this week, he delayed the deadline to Friday, citing “productive” talks. On Thursday morning, during a White House Cabinet meeting, he already hinted at flexibility in the deadline, stating that strict enforcement would only occur if envoy Steve Witkoff and others reported that negotiations were not going well.

The White House has been switching rapidly between diplomatic efforts and military deterrence. On one hand, Trump has directed senior officials including JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Jared Kushner to mediate a 15‑point peace plan through third parties. On the other, the Pentagon has ordered the deployment of approximately 10,000 elite U.S. troops and five warships to the Middle East. For its part, Iran has denied holding direct talks but confirmed it is in contact with third countries.

Steven Grey, Chief Investment Officer at Grey Value Management, argued that the market’s violent reaction is not irrational.

“The market is not being neurotic; this is normal behavior for an efficient market facing extreme uncertainty,” he said. “People are shifting positions at an astonishing speed, or simply choosing to stand aside—and the market’s confusion is entirely rational.”

For now, many Wall Street firms are choosing to stay on the sidelines to avoid being caught off guard by the next social media post from the White House.

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