Xinhua News Agency: What are the possible outcomes of the war in Iran?

# Xinhua News Agency

The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has dragged on for more than a month, with early signs of peace talks emerging, yet the possibility of intermittent fighting remains. Multiple think tanks have outlined four possible endgames: first, Trump unilaterally declaring victory and scaling back military involvement; second, a compromise among all parties to reach a limited ceasefire; third, a prolonged low-intensity confrontation with ongoing conflict; and fourth, an uncontrolled escalation into a broader regional war.

The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has lasted over a month, and recent signs of peace talks have surfaced. Even if negotiations take place, the intensity of the conflict will not necessarily decrease; the possibility of stop-and-go fighting, simultaneous combat and talks, and a protracted conflict still exists.

The ultimate outcome of this war has become a hot topic of discussion among numerous think tanks. Observers, synthesizing multiple viewpoints, have put forward four scenarios.

## Four Possible Endgames

Several U.S. think tank experts point out that U.S. President Donald Trump is now seeking a viable "exit ramp" rather than "continuing to climb the escalation ladder." Overall, there are four paths to an endgame.

### Path 1: Unilaterally Declare Victory and Reduce Military Involvement

This is considered the most politically realistic exit strategy at present. The White House has been touting the results of military strikes against Iran, publicly and semi-publicly reserving space for Trump to "declare victory and reduce military involvement," laying some political groundwork for "ending on a victorious note." If Iran's direct threats to U.S. troops in the Middle East, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. homeland decline in the coming weeks, Trump is likely to define the current phase as "core objectives achieved" and shift the conflict to a lower-intensity phase of deterrence and sanctions.

This photo, taken on March 29, shows a damaged building in Tehran, Iran, which was severely destroyed in U.S.-Israeli attacks that morning. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Sadati.

However, this does not mean the war has truly ended. In the short term, Trump can claim victory domestically; in the long run, the U.S. will face an Iran that, though weakened, still seeks revenge, and the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains fundamentally unresolved. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former U.S. State Department Middle East negotiator, vividly stated: "Trump built himself a box called the 'Iran War,' and now he can't find a way out."

### Path 2: Forced Ceasefire, Limited Ceasefire, Mediated Ceasefire

This is the most discussed outcome. George Beebe and Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft argue that current U.S. military operations against Iran cannot achieve the goal of "eliminating the threat" and must shift to a strategy of "managing rather than solving" the conflict, achieving a dignified exit through a multi-party compromise agreement. Any viable exit path requires both sides to be able to claim "some degree of victory."

A report by the International Crisis Group in Belgium notes that neither the U.S. and Israel nor Iran can achieve a decisive victory. The most urgent task is not to solve all problems but to immediately implement a mutual ceasefire. The report points out that all parties actually have narrative space to claim victory. After a ceasefire, numerous thorny issues—such as Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile programs, U.S. sanctions and troop presence, and Israel's security strategy—will continue to simmer, but the current cost of war has become unbearable. Rather than attempting to solve all problems immediately and risking the war spiraling out of control, it is better to first implement a ceasefire, take a step back, and then gradually address these challenges through diplomatic channels.

Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz are the two key U.S. concerns. The former cannot be resolved through military means and must be addressed through negotiations and a multi-party agreed international verification mechanism.

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