WTI rose nearly 1% on the day, with reports that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the United States open the Strait of Hormuz by force

# Zhao Ying

# Source: Wall Street Insights

WTI rose nearly 1% during the trading session. On the news front, reports indicate the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is seeking to join military operations to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is actively lobbying to form an international coalition.

According to media reports on March 31, multiple Arab officials stated that the UAE is actively pushing for a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force to reopen the strait and has lobbied the United States and major military powers in Europe and Asia to form a joint force. The officials added that the UAE is actively assessing how to play a military role in securing the strait, including supporting tasks such as minesweeping.

As reported by Xinhua News Agency, Trump previously told his aides that he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, serving as the lifeline for the UAE's energy exports, shipping operations, and food imports. Gulf states are now sparing no effort to persuade the U.S. and other nations to reopen the waterway.

A profound shift is also occurring in the collective stance of the Gulf region. Earlier Xinhua reports cited the Associated Press, which quoted multiple anonymous U.S., Gulf, and Israeli officials as saying that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have privately indicated they do not want U.S.-Israeli military operations to end prematurely unless there is a significant change in Iran's leadership.

## Stance Reversal: From "Mediator" to "Quasi-War Participant"

The magnitude of the UAE's policy shift has shocked the international community. Before the war erupted (February 28), the UAE viewed Iran as a "difficult neighbor with its own political logic." UAE diplomats had actively mediated and promoted U.S.-Iran dialogue; Iran's National Security official Ali Larijani even made a special visit to Abu Dhabi—only to be killed in an airstrike later. Dubai, the UAE's commercial hub, had long served as a financing channel for the Iranian regime.

However, the outbreak of war and Iran's intensive missile and drone attacks on Dubai's hotels and airports completely altered the UAE's strategic assessment.

The UAE has since adopted tough countermeasures: Emirates Airlines announced a ban on Iranian nationals entering or transiting through Dubai, and the government has successively closed Iranian hospitals, the Iranian Club Dubai, and other institutions linked to the Iranian regime. Citing Gulf officials, reports note that the UAE is now aligning with Trump's push for allies to bear more of the war burden, particularly regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

## Economic Lifeline: Direct Costs of the Blockade

The Strait of Hormuz is the UAE's economic lifeline, and its closure has inflicted direct and widespread damage on the UAE economy. Reports indicate Iran has launched approximately 2,500 missile and drone attacks on the UAE to date—the largest volume among all targeted nations, exceeding those against Israel.

The sustained bombardment has led to declining air traffic for Emirates, a tourism slump, pressure on the real estate market, and a wave of corporate layoffs and furloughs. These strikes directly target the UAE's core competitiveness: its international image as an "oasis of peace" in a volatile region.

UAE officials stated that as the strait remains closed, pressure on energy-importing nations in Asia and Europe will mount exponentially. While these countries are currently hesitant, the UAE believes they will be willing to participate in clearance operations once backed by a Security Council resolution. Iran, for its part, insists on permanent oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, including the establishment of a toll-collection mechanism. Gulf states fear any diplomatic solution would implicitly grant Iran formal jurisdiction over the waterway, hence advocating for military means to first remove Iranian control.

## Military Feasibility in Doubt, Risks Underrated

Despite the UAE's tough stance, analysts remain cautious about the feasibility of forcibly opening the strait. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, bluntly stated: "I don't think we can do it. Iran only needs one drone, one mine, or one suicide boat to keep the strait under constant threat."

Military analysts point out that any operation to reopen the strait would require not just control of the waterway itself, but potentially ground troop deployments along both banks of its roughly 100-mile depth. The UAE has also urged the U.S. to occupy several islands in the strategic waterway, including Abu Musa Island—controlled by Iran for half a century but claimed by the UAE.

Nevertheless, the UAE possesses certain military assets to contribute: a well-equipped air force with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, which has fought alongside U.S. forces against ISIS; the deep-water Port of Jebel Ali and its strategic location near the Strait of Hormuz entrance, providing a critical forward operating base for U.S.-led operations;

Additionally, the UAE has stockpiles of U.S.-made bombs, short-range missiles, and reconnaissance drones, which could help alleviate ammunition shortages for the U.S. and Israel. Grant Rumley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted: "The UAE could get drawn into this war, only to face a more aggressive Iran, continue to suffer attacks on critical infrastructure and investor confidence, and then struggle to rebuild relations with its neighbors—especially if Trump declares victory before reopening the strait or degrading Iran's missile and drone capabilities."

## Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market is subject to risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk.