Morning News

**Source: Wall Street见闻 (Wall Street News)**

### Market Overview

U.S. stocks opened lower after Trump addressed the nation, failing to provide a ceasefire timeline and threatening further strikes on Iranian infrastructure. However, news of a draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman later pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a nerve-racking close in positive territory. U.S. markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday, marking the first weekly gain for U.S. stocks since the outbreak of the Iran war.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, the Nasdaq gained 0.18%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.13%. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 3.36% and the Nasdaq nearly 4%. The Magnificent Seven outperformed the broader market, but Tesla plunged over 5% after its Q1 delivery volume missed expectations. Globalstar, a low-Earth orbit communications satellite firm, surged 13% amid reports that Amazon is in talks to acquire it.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.30% on Thursday, while the 2-year yield was largely flat at 3.80%. U.S. Treasury yields fell broadly for the week.

The U.S. dollar rose nearly 0.5%, reversing its previous day's losses, and briefly climbed back above the 100 level during the session. Bitcoin dropped over 4% from its daily high before rebounding after falling to $66,000, finishing 1.7% lower by the U.S. market close. Ethereum fell 3.2%.

Gold lost 1.84% and silver dropped around 3%. Following the U.S. announcement of steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs, New York copper rallied 3.8% from its daily low.

WTI crude oil surged nearly 15% intraday, with its settlement price topping $110 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Spot Brent crude skyrocketed above $140, hitting its highest level since 2008, a massive jump from the previous day's close above $128.

During the Asian session, China's ChiNext Index fell over 2%, with tech stocks declining across the board. Oil and gas stocks bucked the trend. The Hang Seng Index briefly dipped below 25,000 points. AI large model stocks slumped sharply, with Zhipu AI falling 15%.

### Key News

**China**

- Foreign media reported that Iran has sought security guarantees from China. If provided, a ceasefire agreement could be reached between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The Foreign Ministry stated: China supports all efforts conducive to peace.

- Wang Yi: The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran violate international law. The UN Security Council must not legitimize unauthorized military operations, otherwise the consequences will be endless.

- Shanghai second-hand home monthly sales returned to 30,000 units for the first time in five years. Multiple new housing projects plan to gradually reduce discounts.

**International**

- Trump declared: The U.S. has achieved an "overwhelming victory" against Iran, with extremely intense strikes to come in the next two to three weeks. Iran and Oman drafted an agreement for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran warned no survivors if a ground invasion is launched. Iran claimed to have hit enemy advanced fighter jets, a claim denied by the U.S. Trump released a video of bridge bombing to exert pressure. Iran: The U.S. and Israel know nothing about Iran's capabilities and will fight until the enemy surrenders. Tech infrastructure becomes a "new battlefield"; Iran launches another attack on Amazon's Middle East data center.

- Spot Brent crude surges above $140. U.S. crude's spot premium hits a record high; futures settle above $110 for the first time in four years. Reports: OPEC+ may agree to an output increase at Sunday's meeting to counter extreme volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.

- The U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives, and 100% tariffs on patented drugs, with "exemptions" for those adhering to agreements.

- Trump's 2027 budget proposal looms, featuring "massive military spending + deep cuts," reigniting U.S. deficit risks.

- AI disrupts white-collar jobs! U.S. corporate layoffs surge in March, with the tech sector hit hardest.

- Microsoft and Google release new AI models on the same day: voice, image, and local open-source capabilities all featured.

- Nvidia equips robots with lobster brains! Harness for embodied intelligence arrives.

- Report: SpaceX targets IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion, ranking behind only five companies in the S&P 500.

- Second consecutive miss! Tesla's Q1 deliveries miss expectations, stock falls over 5%.

- A "Lehman Moment" for private credit? Blue Owl faces an epic run, with 41% of investors demanding redemptions.

### Market Closing Levels

**U.S. & European Stocks**

- S&P 500: +0.11% to 6,582.69; Weekly: +3.36%

- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.13% to 46,504.67; Weekly: +2.96%

- Nasdaq Composite: +0.18% to 21,879.182; Weekly: +4.45%

- European STOXX 600: -0.18% to 596.63

**A-Shares (China)**

- Shanghai Composite: -0.74% to 3,919.29

- Shenzhen Component: -1.60% to 13,486.94

- ChiNext Index: -2.31% to 3,172.65

**Bond Market**

- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: -1.37 bps to 4.3049%; Weekly: -12.29 bps

- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: -0.47 bps to 3.7963%; Weekly: -11.56 bps

**Commodities**

- WTI Crude Oil (May): +11.40% to $111.54/bbl

- Brent Crude Oil (June): +7.78% to $109.03/bbl

- Spot Gold: -1.84% to $4,670.80/oz

- Spot Silver: -2.79% to $72.9814/oz

# Detailed News

## Global Highlights

### China

Foreign media reported that Iran has sought security guarantees from China, and if such guarantees are provided, a ceasefire agreement could be reached among the U.S., Israel and Iran. The Foreign Ministry stated: China supports all efforts conducive to peace. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, China has been actively committed to promoting peace and ending the war. China backs all peace-facilitating efforts and stands ready to strengthen communication and coordination with all parties to continue playing a role in restoring peace in the Middle East.

Wang Yi: U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran violate international law, and the UN Security Council must not legitimize unauthorized military operations, otherwise the consequences will be endless. In a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi said the Strait of Hormuz navigation issue is a spillover effect of the conflict; as long as the war rages on, the strait cannot be peaceful, and the top priority is to focus on an immediate ceasefire. In a call with his German counterpart, he noted that the sovereignty and security of Gulf states must be respected, civilians and non-military targets must be duly protected, and the safety of shipping lanes, energy and infrastructure must be safeguarded.

Monthly second-hand home transactions in Shanghai rebounded to 30,000 units for the first time in five years, with multiple new housing projects planning to gradually reduce discounts. A total of 31,215 second-hand homes (including commercial properties) were signed online in Shanghai in March, hitting a record high since March 2021. Analysts said the March second-hand market boom has nurtured a large number of potential new home buyers, as sellers are likely to enter the market to purchase new homes, providing strong support for April transactions. With continuous supply coming online in April, market transactions will break through further, and the market heat will definitely surpass March's level.

### Overseas

Trump declares "overwhelming victory" in Iran conflict, vows "extremely intense strikes" in next 2-3 weeks. U.S. President Trump said in a speech that the U.S. has achieved a "rapid, decisive and overwhelming victory" in the Iran conflict. Once the conflict ends, the Strait of Hormuz will naturally open. He vowed to launch "extremely intense strikes" against Iran in the next two to three weeks.

Markets "disappointed" as Trump's speech offers no clear de-escalation signal. Markets had expected Trump's national TV address to signal de-escalation, but instead received threats of escalation: he announced "extremely intense strikes" on Iran in the coming weeks. Institutions including Nomura and NAB noted the speech lacked a clear de-escalation signal, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is unlikely to ease in the short term, and global oil price pressure at high levels may persist until late April. Trump's speech was "truly disappointing".

Iran and Oman draft agreement for joint Hormuz control; UAE expresses willingness to join shipping security. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should be under joint supervision and coordination between Iran and Oman, with the agreement designed to ensure safe navigation. Following his remarks, the three major U.S. stock indexes turned higher in short-term trading, and Brent crude gave up more than half of its gains at one point.

Two U.S. most advanced electronic warfare aircraft arrive at Greek base; U.S. defense chief orders Army chief of staff to "resign and retire immediately". Two U.S. military EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft arrived at Souda Bay Base on Greece's Crete Island on Thursday afternoon. U.S. Central Command previously confirmed the EA-37B was deployed for the first time in Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

Iran warns no survivors if ground invasion launched; claims hitting advanced enemy warplanes (denied by U.S.); Trump releases bridge-bombing video for pressure. Iran's military chief ordered forces to monitor U.S.-Israeli movements with "maximum vigilance and skepticism" and counter at appropriate times. Iranian military said inflicting heavy damage on relevant U.S.-Israeli industrial and military targets was a warning, and a harsher response will follow if industrial facilities are attacked again. Trump released a video showing the destruction of Iran's "largest bridge" to pressure a deal; Iran's foreign minister said the country will not surrender. The Israeli military said the head of Iran's military oil department was killed in an airstrike, and an Iranian missile force commander was also killed. UN chief warns war could engulf entire Middle East, saying the region is on the brink of a wider conflict. Macron said military operations to "liberate" the Strait of Hormuz are "unrealistic".

Trump threatens Europe: cut Ukraine aid if it skips joint escort. Last month, Trump used cutting off Ukraine weapons aid as leverage to force European allies to join Hormuz escort operations—a diplomatic game spanning two fronts that exposed rifts in alliances. NATO Secretary-General Rutte urgently mediated to broker a joint statement by Britain, France and Germany on March 19 to salvage the situation. However, weapons supplies remain unresolved, and Trump has threatened to consider withdrawing from NATO, putting the transatlantic alliance under unprecedented trust crisis.

Iran: U.S., Israel clueless about Iranian capabilities; will fight until enemy surrenders. A spokesman for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the U.S. and Israel do not fully understand Iran's military power and equipment, and are ignorant of Iran's strategically significant capabilities. The enemy will face "more devastating, wider-ranging and more destructive operations". A foreign affairs advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said the Strait of Hormuz will remain forever closed to Iran's enemies.

Tech infrastructure becomes "new battlefield"; Iran attacks Amazon's Middle East data centers again. Microsoft and Google released new AI models on the same day: Microsoft launched models with enhanced voice, image and text-to-image capabilities, accelerating integration into product systems like Copilot; Google unveiled Gemma4 open-source model supporting local deployment, with reasoning, code generation and multimodal capabilities under Apache 2.0 license. Both companies continue upgrading AI capabilities to expand application scenarios.

Nvidia equips robots with lobster brains! Harness for embodied intelligence arrives. Nvidia open-sourced CaP-X, a robot control framework that lets large models write Python code on-site to control robots, with successful codes automatically stored in a cross-form skill library. CaP-Agent0 based on this framework matched or outperformed human experts in success rates across multiple tasks. Jim Fan, Nvidia's robotics chief, said the era of agent robots has arrived. CaP-X marks the official arrival of the "Harness" era in robotics.

Report: SpaceX targets IPO valuation over $2 trillion, ranking behind only five S&P 500 firms. SpaceX is set to launch the largest IPO in history, having raised its target valuation to over $2 trillion. A valuation above $2 trillion would mean a nearly two-thirds increase in just a few months. Its $2 trillion market cap would trail only Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.

Second straight miss! Tesla Q1 deliveries miss estimates; stock falls over 5%. Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles globally in Q1, below the 372,000 average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg, marking one of its weakest quarterly performances in recent years. Total automotive production reached 408,000 units, up 13% year-on-year and above the 388,000 estimate. The gap between production and deliveries indicates inventory accumulation, potentially reflecting pressure on end-demand.

"Lehman Moment" for private credit? Blue Owl faces epic run; 41% of investors seek redemptions. Over $4 billion in redemption requests cannot be fulfilled! Two private credit funds under Blue Owl face massive withdrawal requests: OCIC redemptions account for 21.9%, while OTIC focused on tech sector hits 40.7%. Redemption requests are institution-driven, reaching record levels among major institutions. Blue Owl decided to implement a 5% cap on tender offers.

## Selected Research Reports

High oil prices, private credit, AI bubble... Who will be the final straw breaking the U.S. economy? Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes Middle East oil prices near $150; redemption pressure in private credit market surges, triggering "Lehman-style moment" alarms; AI's hundred-billion investment boom cools; U.S. low-income group consumption nears collapse. Five crisis threads are converging at the same tipping point, with U.S. fiscal buffer near its limit—dominoes could fall anytime.

Middle East war escalates but gold plunges again; when will safe-haven king return? Trump declared war escalation, with spot gold falling 3% at one point. Gold prices have trended lower since conflict outbreak, down about 12% in March, questioning its safe-haven status. Goldman Sachs said the slump stems from short-term factors including inflation expectation reshaping, interest rate path repricing and forced position liquidation, not structural failure. Gold's safe-haven return awaits real rate declines and further digestion of speculative positions.

Central bank gold buying: end of an era? UBS noted the structural trend of official sector gold buying remains unchanged; despite slower pace, central banks will remain net buyers. As concerns over "low growth + high inflation" mix and geopolitical tensions intensify, gold's medium-to-long-term uptrend strengthens, maintaining a year-end target of $5,600.

How high can oil rise before triggering systemic market risks? UBS believes once international oil breaks $150/bbl and stays there, the U.S. and global markets face significant systemic risks, sharply raising recession and market crash probabilities. This threshold's danger lies in triggering a full negative cycle: "high oil prices → inflation rebound → monetary tightening → financial conditions deterioration → demand collapse → market panic".

Computing power crunch! SemiAnalysis deep dive: AI supply chain tightens across GPU, memory to fiber, prices surge in tandem. SemiAnalysis said demand explosion causes computing power shortages; memory, GPU to AI server prices skyrocket with limited availability, with H100 GPU annual rental costs surging 40% in five months. The institution believes GPU rental prices will likely keep rising in the short term. Neoclub gains pricing power, but CoreWeave, IREN and related stocks haven't reflected this shift.

Aerospace events surge! U.S. launches manned lunar mission; China's Xiongan-1 satellite ready. U.S. officially launches Artemis II manned lunar flyby mission, first in half a century. China's first "Xiongan-made" satellite Xiongan-1 (Honghu tech verification satellite) completed key tech breakthroughs and rolled off production line, accelerating commercial aerospace industry chain formation. Additionally, Amazon plans to acquire Globalstar to challenge SpaceX; China accelerates space computing and commercial rocket deployment.

# Domestic Macro

**Qiushi Journal Emphasizes "Stabilizing Expectations" Twice; How Will Property Market Policies Be Implemented?**

The Government Work Report sets the tone of "stabilizing the real estate market." In the first quarter, *Qiushi* published two articles stressing the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations, with "market stabilization" as the core policy goal for 2026. The integration of demand-side policies with population strategies will be a key focus. On the supply side, the approach of "controlling new supply, destocking, and optimizing supply" will continue. Meanwhile, supporting policies related to urban renewal are expected to accelerate.

**Fujian: Exploring "Computing Power into the Ocean" to Cultivate New Marine Industries**

Fujian is accelerating the construction of the Fuzhou-Xiamen Marine Economic Demonstration Zone. The conference emphasized focusing on key areas such as digital ocean, expanding applications including star-ocean interconnection, and jointly building the "Maritime Fujian" integrated platform. It will explore advancing "computing power into the ocean" to foster new marine industry sectors. The province will deepen innovation-driven development and industrial agglomeration, create a high-tech marine industry cluster, and build a modern marine industrial system.

# Domestic Companies

**Market Underestimates AI Monetization Capabilities of Alibaba and Tencent**

A latest HSBC report points to market misjudgment: the AI monetization potential of Alibaba and Tencent is systematically underestimated. The pullback in their share prices stems not from pessimism about AI prospects but short-term concerns over operating expenses. If they capture share in the advertising market, their 2027 revenue could see up to 11% upside. HSBC maintains a Buy rating on both, with implied upside of 44% and 51% respectively based on target prices.

**Gold Price Plunge Puts Recently Price-Hiked Laopu Gold in Awkward Position**

The sharp drop in gold prices has erased year-to-date gains, leaving Laopu Gold—fresh off a 30% price increase—in an awkward spot. The brand, which previously achieved high growth amid surging gold prices, now sees its per-gram premium over market prices widen to 1,500 yuan. Stores that once saw long queues now face empty floors. While the founder insists the brand has decoupled from gold price fluctuations, the market is watching whether its ancient craftsmanship can justify its aggressive pricing.

**Chinese PV Industry "Trapped" in the Strait of Hormuz**

Chinese PV firms heavily exposed to the Middle East are under multiple pressures: blocked shipping routes, a 3–5x surge in marine insurance premiums, and rising risks of delayed delivery for projects under construction. As the world's second-largest methanol producer, Iran's conflict has driven up costs for auxiliary materials like PV glass and encapsulant films. Multiple gigawatt-scale projects led by Saudi Arabia's PIF and the UAE's RTC solar-storage project are at critical risk points.

**Zhejiang State-Owned Capital Invests 90 Million Yuan in Zhang Xue; "Post-95" Investment Manager First to Recommend; ZJVC General Manager: "He Assembles Engines with Eyes Closed—His Obsession with Technology Won Me Over"**

Zhang Xue Motorcycle defeated Ducati and Yamaha to win the WSBK championship. Founded just two years ago, its valuation surpassed 1 billion yuan after Zhejiang Venture Capital Group (ZJVC) pre-invested 90 million yuan. What impressed investors was Zhang Xue's technical obsession—"assembling engines with his eyes closed".

# Global Macro

**Trump Confirms Removal of Bondi; Todd Blanche to Serve as Acting U.S. Attorney General**

Bondi becomes the second cabinet member dismissed under Trump's second term. Reports say Trump's dissatisfaction with Bondi lasted months, citing perceived mishandling of the "Epstein files" and insufficient toughness in targeting Trump's political opponents.

**Terror Threat Escalates! Goldman Sachs Paris Headquarters Receives Bomb Threat; U.S. Banks on Alert**

An attempted bombing occurred near Bank of America's Paris office, and Goldman Sachs' French headquarters received a bomb attack warning. U.S. institutions including Citigroup activated remote work protocols in France, with the country upgrading security across core districts.

**Report: Iraq Begins Exporting Oil via Syria**

Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has signed contracts to export approximately 650,000 metric tons of fuel oil monthly overland via Syria from April to June. The Iraqi Oil Ministry stated shipments will gradually increase to expand export capacity.

**Export Capacity Cut by One-Fifth! Report: Russian Oil Forced to Cut Output Amid Precision Ukrainian Drone Strikes**

Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have reduced oil export capacity by about 1 million barrels per day—one-fifth of total exports. The Ust-Luga port is suspended, pipeline systems severely congested, and production cuts imminent. Oil and gas revenue accounts for roughly a quarter of Russia's budget; declining output may partially offset gains from higher prices.

# Global Companies

**Anthropic Executive: Cowork Agent's Potential Surpasses Claude Code**

Paul Smith, Anthropic's Chief Commercial Officer, notes that with engineers comprising only 2–5% of corporate employees, Cowork has a lower adoption barrier, targets all staff, and is designed for broader workflows rather than just programming. Its early adoption rate has already outpaced Claude Code.

**First Yen-Denominated Bond Issuance in the Post-Buffett Era! Berkshire Hathaway Acts Amid Iran War**

Despite dual pressures from Iran war turmoil and expectations of Japanese rate hikes, Berkshire Hathaway—under Abel's leadership post-Warren Buffett—is preparing a new yen bond issuance. This marks the first yen financing in the "post-Buffett era," signaling a sharpened Japan strategy.

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### 4. Quantum Dots

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal notes that accelerated localization of core materials and significant cost reductions are driving quantum dot technology's rapid penetration from high-end to mainstream consumer electronics. TVs, smartphones, laptops, and monitors are core growth drivers—about 70% of high-end TV models already use quantum dot technology for vivid visuals. Beyond traditional electronics, quantum dots are expanding into medical imaging, automotive displays, VR/AR, and industrial sensors, opening new growth avenues.

### 5. Space Computing Power

**On April 3, the 2026 Space Computing Power Industry Conference will be held in Beijing**, according to Chinanews.com. Key announcements: the industry's first "Space Computing Power Professional Committee" will launch under the computing power industry development alliance; the "Beijing Space Computing Power Innovation Center" will be established; and the ETDZ will issue a "Key Generic Technology Research List for Space Computing Power." Shenzhen recently hosted a Space Intelligent Computing Network Seminar, with consensus to build a collaborative ecosystem and form an industry-university-research-application alliance.

**Commentary**: China Securities Journal states space computing power is moving from technical verification to large-scale deployment. Capacity release is the key value driver. Dual catalysts—national low-orbit computing constellation plans and surging commercial aerospace demand—provide steady order support. Technological breakthroughs like reusable rockets continue lowering launch and manufacturing costs. As utilization rates rise, the computing power satellite chain will accelerate the "technology-orders-performance" virtuous cycle.

### 6. Computing Power

**MIIT Launches Inclusive Computing Power Initiative for SMEs**, per CNR. By end-2028, a comprehensive inclusive computing power system will be built—wide coverage, low cost, quality service, vibrant ecosystem, strong talent. It will cover at least 10 of 15 SME-eligible industries, lowering barriers to access and usage.

**Commentary**: Orient Securities notes AI computing demand is shifting from "training" to "inference" as commercialization deepens, reshaping valuations for domestic computing chains. Huawei has built a full stack from chips to software; commercialization of Ascend 950PR marks performance upgrades. Multimodal and AI coding needs grow alongside "sovereign AI" strategies, boosting domestic chip demand.

### 7. Acesulfame Potassium

**Acesulfame K market price hits 45,000 yuan/ton on April 2**, up 32.35% from April 1 (Baichuan Yingfu).

**Commentary**: Price gains driven by rising key raw materials (diketen, acetic anhydride, glacial acetic acid), tighter environmental rules, and energy costs. Rigid demand growth—sugar-free beverages, low-calorie foods, pharmaceuticals. Focus on leaders with strong cost control and pricing power.

### 8. Digital Yuan

**PBOC adds 12 banks as digital yuan operators**, including China CITIC Bank, Everbright Bank, and Hua Xia Bank. New institutions will launch services after completing business/technical preparations.

**Commentary**: Guojin Securities views digital yuan as legal tender with legal tender status, security, convenience, and programmability. It boosts RMB internationalization and financial discourse power with broad domestic/international use cases. Upgrades needed across issuance, circulation, and application layers—benefiting tech and hardware providers.

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## Today's Key Events Preview

- China, U.S., Japan: March Services & Composite PMIs

- U.S.: March Nonfarm Payrolls

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**Risk Disclaimer**

Markets are risky, investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor account for specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Readers should assess suitability of opinions, views, or conclusions herein. Investment decisions are at the investor's sole risk.