Europe is preparing for the worst: there may not be enough energy

By Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wall Street News

EU Energy Commissioner warns that the situation in the Middle East is triggering a **long-term energy crisis**, and “conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the coming weeks.” The EU has activated emergency plans and is evaluating extreme options such as **fuel rationing** and another release of strategic reserves. Although no regulatory changes have been made yet, Brussels is securing supplies through multiple channels to应对 the structural turmoil in the global energy market.

The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to roil the global energy market, and Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned in an interview with the Financial Times that this energy shock will be “long-term,” and the EU is assessing “all possible options,” including fuel rationing and further use of strategic reserves.

He stated clearly: “For some of the more critical products, we expect the situation to deteriorate further in the coming weeks.” This is the most severe public statement by an EU official so far during this crisis.

The aviation industry has already felt the pressure first, with multiple airlines expressing deep concern over the outlook for jet fuel supplies. The continued rise in energy prices and worries over long-term supply are spreading through the entire European economy.

### Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, energy markets in chaos

The Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important energy shipping lanes — is now effectively closed. Combined with repeated attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, global energy markets have been thrown into turmoil, with oil prices surging sharply.

Dan Jørgensen described the current situation as a “long-term crisis,” stating that “energy prices will remain high for a very long time.” He noted that the EU is not yet facing a “supply security crisis,” but Brussels is drafting plans to应对 the “structural, long-term impacts” of the conflict.

“The language and tone we are using now are more serious than in the early stages of the crisis,” he said.

“This is indeed our judgment — this will be a protracted situation, and countries need to ensure their reserves are adequate.”

### Rationing and strategic reserves: worst-case planning underway

On specific response measures, Dan Jørgensen said the EU is evaluating the possibility of rationing critical products such as jet fuel and diesel, though he stressed that the stage for actual implementation “has not yet been reached.” “It is better to prepare early than to regret too late,” he said.

On strategic reserves, he did not rule out another release of strategic petroleum reserves “if the situation deteriorates further.” Last month, EU member states participated in the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves to curb price increases.

He declined to reveal the EU’s “precise judgment” on when another release might be needed, but said “we take this very seriously and stand ready to act if necessary.”

“We need to keep our options open. If this crisis persists for as long as I expect, we will also need these tools in later phases,” he added. “But the timing must be precise, and the scale must match the situation.”

### Discussions on relaxing fuel standards launched, but no rule changes yet

Discussions on relaxing jet fuel regulatory standards have also been put on the agenda. The EU and the US have different freezing-point standards for jet fuel: minus 47°C for the EU, and minus 40°C for the US. When asked whether the EU would consider relaxing standards to expand import sources from the US, or allow higher ethanol blending in motor fuels, Dan Jørgensen said “no revisions or adjustments to current regulations have been made” at this stage.

However, he left room for future action:

“We are examining all possibilities. The more severe the situation becomes, of course the more we need to consider legislative tools.”

On natural gas policy, Dan Jørgensen reiterated that the EU will not amend EU legislation this year to end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. He said the EU will rely more on additional supplies from the US and other partners, citing that these suppliers operate in a “free market” environment and are therefore acceptable.

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