Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked: Only 4 ships passed through on the 8th. The United States urgently urges allies to come up with a plan within a few days.

As of 13:34 on April 9, after the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire, the navigational situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not met expectations. Only 4 ships passed smoothly on April 8, setting the lowest single-day traffic volume since April. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a tough warning to surrounding ships via radio, stating that "intruders will be destroyed," and currently 426 oil tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. Although the U.S. Secretary of Defense publicly claimed that "the strait is open," the actual navigational difficulties remain severe. At the same time, Trump is exerting pressure on NATO allies simultaneously, even stating that he is "considering withdrawing from NATO," and the rift between the U.S. and Europe is accelerating.

The signing of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has not led to the scheduled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the uncertainty in the global energy supply chain has not been eliminated. Against this background, the United States is exerting pressure on its allies at multiple levels, clearly requiring relevant countries including European nations to put forward specific plans to ensure the safe navigation of the Strait of Hormuz within days, so as to alleviate the current navigational crisis.

According to Xinhua News Agency citing a report by The Wall Street Journal on April 8, after the announcement of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th, a figure that set the lowest single-day record since April. Iran has clearly stated to the mediator that it will limit the daily number of ships passing through the strait to about 12, and at the same time warned all passing ships that they must obtain permission from Iran before navigating, and are not allowed to enter without permission.

It is reported that after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement, the United States has put forward clear requirements to NATO allies at multiple levels including the White House, the Pentagon, and the State Department, hoping that relevant countries will submit specific plans to ensure the navigation of the strait within days to help resolve the current navigational predicament. As a key global energy artery, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil and natural gas transit volume. Its continuous navigational obstruction is directly exerting pressure on the global energy market, pushing up international energy prices sharply, and triggering widespread market concerns about global fuel shortages. At the same time, the differences between the United States and its allies over the Iran conflict are constantly intensifying, and the rift continues to expand.

After the ceasefire agreement took effect, the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply, and Iran still firmly holds the initiative in the strait's navigation. According to data from Xinhua News Agency citing The Wall Street Journal and S&P Global Market Intelligence, only 4 ships were allowed to pass through the strait on April 8 after the ceasefire was announced. Before the conflict broke out, more than 100 ships passed through the waterway every day, showing a significant gap in traffic volume.

Data from the ship tracking platform MarineTraffic shows that a large number of ships are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, including 426 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) ships, 19 liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, as well as hundreds of container ships and general cargo ships, all of which are waiting to pass. On the morning of April 8, a marine radio recording shared by a crew member with The Wall Street Journal showed that the Navy of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was issuing a severe warning via radio to ships moored near the Strait of Hormuz, clearly stating that unauthorized passage through the strait without Iran's permission would face the risk of being destroyed.

Several crew members stranded in the Persian Gulf stated that there are still fighter jets active in the waters, and navigation safety cannot be guaranteed. They have not received clear instructions from Iran regarding navigation, nor have they obtained any confirmation information about navigation safety from local agents, so they can only wait in place. According to MarineTraffic, the bulk carrier NJ Earth owned by a Greek shipowner and the Liberian-flagged ship Daytona Beach were the first two ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Iran's Fars News Agency also reported on the 8th that after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was reached, only 2 oil tankers obtained permission from Iran and passed through the strait safely on the morning of that day.

Iran clearly stated that all ships wanting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must coordinate with the Iranian armed forces and "fully consider technical restrictions," and it is not an unconditional opening. In addition, according to shipowners and relevant brokers, in recent weeks, some shippers have paid more than one million US dollars in navigation fees to pass through the strait smoothly. It is not yet clear whether Iran will continue to collect such tolls in the future.

There is an obvious contradiction between the statements of U.S. officials and Iran, which further exacerbates the uncertainty of the situation. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated on the morning of April 8 that Iran is gradually allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed that the United States has achieved a "decisive military victory" over Iran, emphasizing that "what has been reached and stated is: the strait is open."

However, this statement is in sharp contrast to the actual navigational situation of the strait. The data that only 4 ships passed through the strait on that day, the radio warning from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the personal descriptions of frontline crew members all contradict Pete Hegseth's public statement. Iran has long made it clear that the navigation of the strait needs to be coordinated with its armed forces and is accompanied by conditions such as "technical restrictions," and has never made a commitment to unconditional opening. In addition, according to Iran's Fars News Agency, Israel's continuous attacks on Hezbollah militia in Lebanon are also an important factor leading to the delayed recovery of navigation in the strait. Iran believes that Israel's act constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement and has suspended oil tanker navigation on this ground, which also means that the fragility of the ceasefire agreement is continuously eroding its implementation space from the outside.

With the difficulty in resolving the navigational predicament of the strait, the United States has begun to accelerate the pressure on its allies. According to media citing a senior NATO official, the United States has clearly required European allies to submit specific plans within days regarding their previous commitment to "assist in ensuring the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz." This requirement has been put forward in discussions at multiple levels including the White House, the Pentagon, and the State Department, and the time node coincides with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's visit to Washington to meet with Trump.

Currently, an alliance led by the United Kingdom and covering more than 40 countries has promised to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the war in the Middle East. The alliance includes multiple European countries, Japan, and Canada. After the announcement of the ceasefire agreement, about a dozen European leaders also issued a joint statement, promising to "contribute to ensuring the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz." However, it is worth noting that under the tight timetable urged by the United States, there are still doubts about whether the relevant plans can be introduced as scheduled. The current ceasefire agreement itself is in a fragile state, and attacks between Israel and Iran are still continuing. It is not yet clear whether the member states of the alliance believe that it is feasible to put forward specific navigation plans within days.

At the same time, the contradictions between Trump and NATO allies continue to intensify, and NATO relations are facing enormous pressure. Regarding the Iran conflict, some NATO member states have clearly refused to let the United States use their military bases to launch attacks on Iran, and have not responded to Trump's call to "assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz" during the war, which has made Trump extremely dissatisfied.

After meeting with Mark Rutte, Trump posted a complaint on social media, stating that "when we needed NATO, NATO was not there; when we need it again in the future, NATO will not be there either." Earlier, he had called NATO member states "cowards" and dismissed the alliance as a "paper tiger." According to media reports, in an interview with Britain's Daily Telegraph, Trump even clearly stated that he is "seriously considering" completely withdrawing from NATO.

Mark Rutte's visit to Washington this time is regarded by the outside world as a "fire-fighting" trip. Known as the "Trump whisperer," the NATO Secretary-General has mediated in many previous crises, such as Trump pressuring member states to increase defense spending and threatening to seize Greenland, to ease tensions between the two sides. During the visit, Mark Rutte held talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and the two sides conducted in-depth discussions on issues such as the Iran situation, efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and "strengthening coordination and burden-sharing" with NATO allies.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker have previously stated that NATO member states must take more actions to prove their value to the United States. This statement also implies that Washington is re-examining its relationship with NATO. At the same time, U.S. Vice President JD Vance has confirmed that he will lead a U.S. delegation to Islamabad on Saturday to hold direct talks with Iran, attempting to promote the resolution of relevant differences including the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources: Xinhua News Agency, The Wall Street Journal, Iran's Fars News Agency, Ship Tracking Platform MarineTraffic

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Markets are volatile and investments involve risks. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice, nor does it consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions are made at one's own risk.