The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement cannot prevent the conflict from escalating. U.S. stock futures fell, oil prices rebounded strongly, and gold fluctuated at $4,720.

# Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Unravels, Triggering Global Market Reversal: U.S. Stock Futures Dip, Oil Rebounds, Gold Volatile Around $4,722

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement faced severe challenges less than 24 hours after being signed, abruptly halting the global multi-asset rally sparked by the initial easing of Middle East tensions. On Thursday, April 9, the three major U.S. stock index futures traded lower in early sessions. European stocks opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.30%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, fueling concerns that the global equity market's four-day winning streak may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures staged a strong rebound, surging 2.7% to around $97 per barrel, recovering sharply from the largest single-day sell-off in over six years. Gold traded in a wide range near $4,722 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven demand and inflationary expectations.

## Ceasefire Disputed, Mixed Signals Deepen Uncertainty

The fragility of the deal was exposed on the very day it was signed. Under the framework, Trump announced a two-week pause in strikes on Iran in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations based on Iran's "10-Point Plan." Israel was also reported to have joined the ceasefire. However, within 24 hours of the announcement, Israel launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon, causing heavy casualties. Trump contradicted himself on key issues, including the negotiation framework and whether Lebanon would be included in the ceasefire, while the White House stated it had shelved Iran's "10-Point Plan." In response, Iran promptly closed the Strait of Hormuz again, warning the U.S. to choose between "ceasefire" and "continuing the war through Israel." This ceasefire has been fraught with chaos and uncertainty from its inception.

Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank, noted: "The essence of a ceasefire lies in mutual agreement and faithful implementation. If terms fail to take effect and accountability for hostilities cannot be established, the so-called 'ceasefire' loses substantive meaning."

## Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Energy Flows Remain Key Variable

Traffic through the Strait remains the market's focal point. Despite the announced ceasefire, shipowners have adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding safe passage, leaving the waterway effectively under a de facto partial blockade. According to ship-tracking data, only three vessels were observed leaving the area on April 8, and merely four ships were granted passage on the day the ceasefire was announced—a stark contrast to the pre-conflict average of over 100 vessels daily.

Peter Dragicevich, APAC Currency Strategist at Corpay Solutions, stated in a research note: "The fragility of the ceasefire has been tested, with Iran closing the Strait in response to Israel's attacks on Lebanon. While tensions have eased somewhat, the situation remains highly sensitive and could deteriorate rapidly amid competing interests." Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Strategist, also pointed out that Israel's intensified strikes on Lebanon and Iran's threat of a forceful response cast doubt on the prospects of negotiations scheduled to begin on Friday, keeping energy supply risks elevated.

## Global Equities Slide, Tech Stocks Under Pressure

Asian stock markets fell broadly. South Korea's KOSPI led declines, dropping 1.53%, with the Kosdaq index falling 1.38%. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.77% and the Topix fell 0.78%. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the impact of cross-market volatility on interest rates should not be overlooked, stating that "the speed of interest rate hikes transmitting from other markets could be far faster than expected." India's Nifty 50 declined 0.3%, as the Reserve Bank of India had previously warned of inflation risks and growth headwinds stemming from the Iran conflict. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 traded nearly flat.

European markets opened mixed. Germany's DAX slipped 0.01%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.23%, and France's CAC 40 fell 0.16%. U.S. stock index futures traded lower, reflecting a shift toward caution in near-term risk sentiment. Asian tech stocks followed their U.S. counterparts lower, with the sector under pressure following Meta's launch of a new AI model and Anthropic's release of tools for building AI agents.

## Other Asset Classes: Bonds Weaken, Oil & Gold Rebound, Bitcoin Falls

- **Crude Oil**: Brent crude futures rebounded 2.7% to approximately $97 per barrel, recovering from its largest single-day drop in over six years, as markets focused on the Strait of Hormuz's navigation status and supply risks.

- **Gold**: Spot gold fluctuated widely around $4,722 per ounce, briefly dipping below $4,700 during the session, supported by dual catalysts of geopolitical conflict and inflation expectations.

- **Bonds**: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.29%. Japan's 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 2.395%, while Germany's 2-year yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 2.5484%, reflecting rising inflation and policy rate expectations.

- **Dollar & Crypto**: The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1%. Bitcoin fell 0.5% to around $71,000, as risk assets came under short-term pressure.

## Market Recap & Outlook

On Wednesday, following Trump's announcement of a pause in strikes on Iran, U.S. stocks staged a dramatic rally: The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,325.46 points, or 2.85%, its largest single-day gain since April 2025. The S&P 500 rose 2.51% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.80%, while the Asia Pacific index posted its best daily performance in a year.

Yiping Liao, Portfolio Manager at Templeton Global Investments, commented: "Market direction will hinge heavily on ceasefire implementation and negotiation progress. A return to pre-conflict conditions will be challenging. While this may mark a temporary floor in escalation, risks remain elevated, requiring close monitoring of Strait of Hormuz traffic and geopolitical developments."

## Sources

Xinhua News Agency, The Wall Street Journal, MarineTraffic, Bloomberg, S&P Global Market Intelligence

## Risk Warning & Disclaimer

Market risk applies, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it account for the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions based on this article are made at one's own risk.