Global market dynamics and news summary

# I. Market Overview

Expectations of a U.S.-Iranian agreement drove U.S. stocks to turn higher during trading. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded, with the S&P 500 erasing all losses since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Nasdaq Composite rose over 1% to extend its winning streak to nine sessions.

By sector, the chip index climbed nearly 2%, hitting a record high for the fourth consecutive trading day; Western Digital surged nearly 12%. Oracle jumped nearly 13% after unveiling AI utility tools and related capabilities. Software stocks rebounded broadly, with Salesforce rising nearly 5% to lead the Dow higher, and Microsoft gaining over 3%. Goldman Sachs fell nearly 2% despite record equity trading revenue, as fixed-income and other businesses underperformed expectations.

**Bond Market**: U.S. Treasury prices turned higher during trading, with yields opening higher but moving lower.

**FX Market**: The U.S. Dollar Index turned lower, falling for six straight days to a more than one-month low. The offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened for seven consecutive days, breaking above 6.82 for the first time in three years during intraday trading, rising over 200 pips from the session low. Bitcoin topped $73,000 intraday, up over 4% from the daily low.

**Commodity Market**: Crude oil rebounded on the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, briefly rising back above $100/bbl with a gain of over 9%. However, expectations of U.S.-Iran peace talks capped gains, and oil subsequently gave up more than half of its intraday advance to fall back below $100/bbl. Gold declined for a second day, with COMEX gold futures falling over 3% at one point and silver futures dropping over 5%, before both pared most losses.

During Asian trading hours, China's ChiNext Index hit a phase high; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL, "Ning Wang") saw its market capitalization approach 2 trillion yuan. Polysilicon futures hit the daily limit. The Hang Seng Index fell nearly 1%, with most tech stocks lower.

# II. Key News Summary

## (A) China News

1. Wang Yi spoke on the phone with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar, emphasizing that the current ceasefire is fragile and the regional situation is at a critical juncture. The top priority is to prevent a resumption of hostilities and maintain the hard-won ceasefire momentum.

2. Foreign Ministry responses:

  - Rejected unfounded smears or malicious associations regarding reports of China planning to supply weapons to Iran.

  - Stated that "tariff wars have no winners" in response to Trump's threat to impose tariffs if China provides weapons to Iran.

  - Clarified China's position on the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, stressing that the solution to navigation disruptions is an immediate ceasefire, and that disputes should be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

3. March financial data released:

  - New aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE): 5.23 trillion yuan; Q1 total: nearly 15 trillion yuan

  - New RMB loans: 2.99 trillion yuan

  - M2 money supply: +8.5% YoY

  - Outstanding AFRE at end-March: 456.46 trillion yuan, +7.9% YoY

4. Prominent investor Duan Yongping confirmed buying Pop Mart, stating "I haven't felt this excitement in a long time." Industry analysts noted his conservative strategy: earning steady option premiums if prices hold, or building positions at lower costs if shares decline.

5. A leaked "Chengdu Polysilicon Price Support Meeting Minutes" triggered a rally in polysilicon futures and stocks. Industry insiders confirmed the document was fake. The minutes claimed major silicon producers and downstream leaders held meetings to coordinate price floors, output controls, and capacity reductions.

## (B) Global News

1. U.S. blockade of Iranian ports took effect. Trump claimed Iran contacted the U.S. seeking an agreement, while threatening to destroy Iranian fast-attack boats near the blockade zone. Iran responded that if the U.S. blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it would block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and U.S. military intervention would fail. Iran will implement a "permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz." Negotiations remain open; both sides are bargaining, with Turkey and other mediators continuing efforts to bridge differences. Direct talks or ceasefire extensions remain possible.

2. Fed unexpectedly cut Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) by nearly 40% to $25 billion monthly, from $40 billion previously. The reduction far exceeded Wall Street expectations of $5–10 billion cuts.

3. OPEC crude oil output plunged by 7.88 million bpd in March – the largest monthly drop on record, exceeding the peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. Iraq led the decline with a 2.56 million bpd cut to 1.63 million bpd, hit by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. OPEC lowered its Q2 global demand forecast by 500,000 bpd but maintained full-year growth expectations.

4. Kuwait sharply raised May crude oil prices for Asia, setting both crude and ultra-light crude at $17/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average. The move followed the breakdown of U.S.-Iran talks and the Hormuz blockade.

5. Microsoft is reportedly integrating OpenClaw technology into Copilot to enable 24/7 autonomous AI agents, aiming to counter Anthropic's Claude penetration of Office ecosystems and low 3% adoption rates. Security and customer trust remain critical hurdles.

6. OpenAI internal memo revealed: Microsoft's "constraints" are limiting business expansion, and Amazon represents the new path forward. The CRO noted enterprise inbound demand from AWS partnerships has been "stunning" since February, while criticizing Anthropic's strategic mistake of insufficient compute access.

7. Elon Musk's "WeChat of the West" arrives: encrypted messaging app XChat will officially launch April 17, featuring end-to-end encryption, no phone number required, built-in Grok AI, and Simplified Chinese support.

8. Goldman Sachs Q1 revenue and net income rose steadily, with equities trading revenue setting a Wall Street record for the second straight quarter, driven by market volatility from the Iran conflict. Fixed-income revenue missed expectations.

# III. Industry & Theme Analysis

## 1. 3D Printing

Apple is expected to enter the foldable phone market in H2 2026, TrendForce reports. Foldable panel development is shifting from mechanical hinge-based "fold resistance" to material-stacking "stress management engineering," with crease control becoming a key display technology metric. Apple is projected to capture ~20% market share by 2026, squeezing Samsung and Huawei to ~30% each.

**Comment**: Apple's foldable will use book-style design focused on crease reduction, with ultra-thin glass (UTG) and precision hinges. 3D printing is expected to scale in hinge covers, backplates, and frames. Compared to traditional CNC, 3D printing offers material savings and faster complex part production.

## 2. Liquid Cooling

The 4th Data Center Liquid Cooling Conference will be held April 16 in Shenzhen under the theme "Liquid Cooling Meets 800V," exploring next-gen AI data center infrastructure.

**Comment**: AI's power surge and stricter PUE regulations make liquid cooling mandatory for high-density facilities. NVIDIA's RubinNVL72 uses 100% liquid cooling; Google's TPUv7 (980W/chip) requires full liquid cooling. The market is projected to reach $16.5B in 2026 (CAGR 59% 2025–2026). Chinese full-stack providers gain global supply chain access.

## 3. AI Glasses

Apple's first smart glasses (codenamed N50) are in intensive testing, with four frame designs targeting premium markets. Launch is planned for 2027 (announcement late 2026/early 2027; release spring/summer 2027). The lightweight wearable sits between Apple Watch and AirPods, integrating deeply with iPhone for calls, notifications, music, and upgraded Siri with visual AI.

**Comment**: Smart glasses represent the next physical interface post-smartphones. Global shipments rose 139% YoY in H2 2025; AI glasses accounted for 88%. China's market surged 87.1% YoY to 2.46M units. Lightweight design and AI integration drive mainstream adoption.

## 4. Optical Chips

Lumentum CEO stated hyperscaler capex remains extremely strong with no signs of slowing. The company can't meet demand; at current rates, 2028 capacity will sell out in two quarters. The upcycle is expected to last at least five years.

**Comment**: Non-linear AI infrastructure growth drives a long-term optical chip upcycle. High technical barriers and long lead times create supply tightness. Lumentum's $5B annual capacity expansion won't materialize until 2028. Chinese players gain critical window to enter global supply chains.

## 5. Rare Earths

China Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel raised Q2 2026 rare earth concentrate prices by 11,970 yuan/ton (44.61% QoQ) to 38,804 yuan/ton – the largest increase since the 2023 pricing reform, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly rise.

**Comment**: The unexpected price hike supports praseodymium-neodymium oxide costs. Supply deficits are expected to widen from 2026, with prices projected at 600,000–800,000 yuan/ton. EVs, humanoid robots, and urban air mobility drive long-term demand.

## 6. Printed Circuit Boards (PCB)

Inspur Electronics reported 2025 server revenue rose 47.69% to 154.6 billion yuan.

**Comment**: AI PCB markets will reach 87.7B yuan (2026) and 1.6T yuan (2027), growing 140% and 83% respectively. AI推理 chips drive volume/price increases,工艺升级, material innovation, and consolidation. High-end shortages persist through 2026–2027.

# IV. Today's Forward Look

- **China**: March trade data

- **U.S.**: March PPI; IMF World Economic Outlook; Fed speeches (Barr, Goolsbee, Harker, Barkin, Collins); ECB President Lagarde speech; earnings from JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock; potential GPT-6 release; IEA monthly oil report

# Risk Disclaimer

Markets are risky, investments require caution. This document does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should assess whether any opinions, views, or conclusions suit their circumstances. Investment decisions are at your own risk.