The Trump administration plans to block the Strait of Hormuz and clear mines, raising concerns about multiple risks

On April 12 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly announced that the United States would immediately move to block the Strait of Hormuz and launch operations to clear mines allegedly laid by Iran in the waterway. The move marks a further escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, drawing widespread international concern over global energy security and regional stability. Experts warn the initiative is a high-stakes gamble whose intended goals are unlikely to be achieved.

As the global "chokepoint" for energy shipments, the Strait of Hormuz has long been the central flashpoint in U.S.-Iran rivalry. The Trump administration's sudden strategic shift—from previously demanding Iran keep the strait open to now imposing a U.S.-led blockade—has prompted diverse interpretations of its underlying strategic calculations. U.S. military officials have explicitly stated that a full blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports will begin at 10:00 a.m. EDT on April 13 (22:00 Beijing time on April 13).

Analysts believe the Trump administration's synchronized blockade and mine-clearance operations serve two core objectives. First, it seeks to seize dominance over the Strait of Hormuz and weaken Iran's strategic deterrence capabilities. Trump has explicitly stated that the U.S. will intercept all vessels paying tolls to Iran in international waters, barring such ships from safe passage on the high seas to reduce Iran's leverage in negotiations. Though Iran has consistently denied laying mines in the strait, the U.S. frames mine clearance as a critical complementary measure to reduce Iran's asymmetric military threats and create conditions for long-term control of the waterway.

Second, the blockade aims to economically strangle Iran by cutting off its oil export lifeline. Data shows Iran exported 1.85 million barrels of crude oil daily as of the end of March, an increase of roughly 100,000 barrels from the previous three months, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as its primary export route. The U.S. blockade intends to completely sever Iran's oil exports and maritime supply lines, intensifying economic pressure. Maritime blockades are a familiar U.S. pressure tactic: earlier this year, Washington employed similar measures to cut off Venezuela's oil revenues during its campaign against President Nicolás Maduro.

The timing of the blockade reflects several practical considerations. Over 40 days of conflict, Iran's military capabilities—particularly naval strength—have been degraded, lowering the military risks of a blockade. Compared to escalatory options like ground operations, the blockade offers lower costs, greater feasibility, and reduced domestic political pressure. Additionally, with international oil prices already elevated, the U.S. aims to drive prices higher through the blockade to expand its own oil exports and profit from the crisis. Relevant institutions estimate U.S. crude exports will surge from 3.9 million barrels per day in March to 5.2 million barrels per day in April.

However, the initiative faces significant resistance and risks that cannot be ignored. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis noted that blocking the Strait of Hormuz represents both a formidable task and a dangerous gamble. Economically, the blockade is unlikely to cripple Iran in the short term but will exacerbate global energy market tensions, push international oil prices higher, and ultimately backfire on the U.S. economy. Iran can also partially sustain supplies through overland border routes. Militarily, long-term control would require substantial forces—an estimated two carrier strike groups and more than 10 destroyers and frigates—while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy retains considerable asymmetric capabilities that will pose ongoing challenges to U.S. control.

Former U.S. Defense Department official Dana Struan argued that while the U.S. seeks to resolve its current predicament through the blockade, it cannot achieve its goals alone, and the sustainability of the operation remains uncertain. The international community is closely monitoring developments in U.S.-Iran relations, calling on both sides to resolve differences through political and diplomatic channels and prevent further deterioration.

### Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Markets are volatile and investments involve risks. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice, nor does it account for specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual readers. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their particular circumstances. Any investment decisions made are at your own risk.