Day 1 of U.S. Military Blockade on Strait of Hormuz: "No Ships Breached," UK Maritime Agency Says 7 Vessels Sailed Out

On the first day of the U.S. military's blockade on relevant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, discrepancies emerged in information: the U.S. military claimed高调 that there was a "zero breach" of the blockade line and successfully forced 6 merchant ships to turn back, while data from a UK maritime analysis agency showed that the strait had not completely shut down, with more than a dozen ships entering and exiting on the day the blockade took effect. It is reported that the U.S. military's blockade this time only targets ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, not a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the potential threats of naval mines, drones and missiles around the strait have led to a sharp drop in commercial shipping traffic to a tiny fraction of that before the conflict, and the market concern about the disruption of the global energy supply chain has not been alleviated.

After the U.S. officially implemented the blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, the commercial navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz became particularly complex. On the one hand, the U.S. military has repeatedly emphasized that no ships have breached the blockade line targeting Iran; on the other hand, data from maritime analysis agencies and reports from multiple media outlets have shown that a number of merchant ships have passed normally through this global energy transportation choke point on the premise of not calling at Iranian ports.

According to a briefing by the U.S. Central Command, within the first 24 hours of the blockade taking effect, no ships breached the blockade line set up by the U.S. military, and 6 other merchant ships turned back to Iranian ports under the instructions of the U.S. military. The U.S. military did not engage in any exchange of fire with any ships nor conduct any boarding inspections. The U.S. military also stated that it has deployed more than a dozen warships, dozens of fighter jets and tens of thousands of soldiers to carry out this blockade mission, with the core goal of cutting off Iran's port shipping links rather than hindering the normal navigation of the entire strait.

However, this statement is significantly different from the monitoring data of maritime agencies. According to a report by Windward, a UK-based maritime analysis company cited by Xinhua News Agency, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not completely stopped due to the blockade. On the day the blockade took effect (the 13th) alone, 10 ships entered the strait and 7 ships sailed out, including several oil tankers. Other media reports indicate that within 24 hours of the blockade taking effect, more than 20 approved commercial ships that did not visit Iranian ports have successfully passed through the strait, showing signs of partial recovery in navigation, but the traffic volume is still far lower than the level before the conflict.

This information discrepancy clearly reflects the actual implementation boundary of the U.S. military's blockade this time: its actions are strictly limited to ships entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, and it has not implemented a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz itself. Ships traveling to and from non-Iranian ports can theoretically pass normally, and the U.S. military even stated that it will provide freedom of navigation guarantees for such ships.

Although there is room for navigation for non-sanctioned ships and ships that do not call at Iranian ports, the navigation risks in the strait are still not negligible. Windward observed that when some ships passed through the strait, they showed abnormal behaviors such as turning back, turning off the Automatic Identification System (AIS), and reducing speed, indicating that relevant ships are re-evaluating route risks and responding cautiously to the situation. Executives of the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) also warned that the current strait has prominent risks of channel congestion and misjudgment and misfire, and Iran still deploys anti-ship missiles, drones, naval mines and other equipment around the strait. Even if they do not call at Iranian ports, navigation still has high safety hazards, and mainstream shipping companies and oil giants have not resumed navigation in the strait.

John Denholm, incoming Chairman of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), stated that theoretically, if a ship does not call at an Iranian port, it can sail out of the Strait of Hormuz via the route of Larak Island in Iran. However, against the backdrop of unclear U.S.-Iran relations, such navigation is still very dangerous. At present, no ships have been found to test the bottom line of the U.S. blockade by calling at Iranian ports.

It is worth noting that in the first few hours after the blockade took effect, some oil tankers that had called at Iranian ports or been sanctioned by the U.S. tried to cross the Strait of Hormuz to test the bottom line of the blockade, but all faced obvious resistance. Shipping tracking data shows that the Rich Starry, an oil tanker once sanctioned by the U.S., passed through the strait on Monday night and turned back on Tuesday morning. Analysts speculate that the ship may have loaded Iranian crude oil with GPS turned off, and this operation may be to test the determination of the U.S. military in implementation.

Another sanctioned oil tanker, Elpis, once sent a signal from Bushehr Port in Iran. After passing through the strait on Monday afternoon, it remained on the periphery of the strait and did not move forward. Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said that this is the first real test of the U.S. military's blockade, and Iran may use such actions to assess the firmness of the U.S. in implementing the blockade.

U.S. officials revealed that currently, approved cargo ships, container ships and oil tankers entering and exiting the Persian Gulf are passing normally. To reduce the risk of being attacked, some ships choose to turn off their transponders to reduce the possibility of exposing their positions. The U.S. military has no plan to open fire on any oil tankers sailing out of Iranian ports for the time being, and the transportation of humanitarian supplies is not affected by this blockade.

Although the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely closed to navigation, the current commercial shipping traffic is only a small part of that before the war. Coupled with the uncertainty of the situation, the market concern about the disruption of the global energy supply chain is far from being eliminated. The war risk insurance rate is still at a high level, which further restricts the return of mainstream shipping forces.

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